High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Reconstructing Past Climate by Using Proxy Data and a Linear Climate Model

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

Integrating spatial optimization and cellular automata for evaluating urban change

Urban growth and change presents numerous challenges for planners and policy makers. Effective and appropriate strategies for managing growth and change must address issues of social, environmental and economic sustainability. Doing so in practical terms is a difficult task given the uncertainty associated with likely growth trends not to mention the uncertainty associated with how social and environmental structures will respond to such change. An optimization based approach is developed for evaluating growth and change based upon spatial restrictions and impact thresholds. The spatial optimization model is integrated with a cellular automata growth simulation process. Application results are presented and discussed with respect to possible growth scenarios in south east Queensland, Australia.

SimuMap: a computational system for spatial modelling

The paper presents a computational system based upon formal principles to run spatial models for environmental processes. The simulator is named SimuMap because it is typically used to simulate spatial processes over a mapped representation of terrain. A model is formally represented in SimuMap as a set of coupled sub-models. The paper considers the situation where spatial processes operate at different time levels, but are still integrated. An example of such a situation commonly occurs in watershed hydrology where overland flow and stream channel flow have very different flow rates but are highly related as they are subject to the same terrain runoff processes. SimuMap is able to run a network of sub-models that express different time-space derivatives for water flow processes. Sub-models may be coded generically with a map algebra programming language that uses a surface data model. To address the problem of differing time levels in simulation, the paper: (i) reviews general approaches for numerical solvers, (ii) considers the constraints that need to be enforced to use more adaptive time steps in discrete time specified simulations, and (iii) scaling transfer rates in equations that use different time bases for time-space derivatives. A multistep scheme is proposed for SimuMap. This is presented along with a description of its visual programming interface, its modelling formalisms and future plans. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal sampling strategy for estimation of spatial genetic structure in tree populations

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) in natural tree populations is largely a result of restricted pollen and seed dispersal. Understanding the link between limitations to dispersal in gene vectors and SGS is of key interest to biologists and the availability of highly variable molecular markers has facilitated fine-scale analysis of populations. However, estimation of SGS may depend strongly on the type of genetic marker and sampling strategy (of both loci and individuals). To explore sampling limits, we created a model population with simulated distributions of dominant and codominant alleles, resulting from natural regeneration with restricted gene flow. SGS estimates from subsamples (simulating collection and analysis with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and microsatellite markers) were correlated with the 'real' estimate (from the full model population). For both marker types, sampling ranges were evident, with lower limits below which estimation was poorly correlated and upper limits above which sampling became inefficient. Lower limits (correlation of 0.9) were 100 individuals, 10 loci for microsatellites and 150 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. Upper limits were 200 individuals, five loci for microsatellites and 200 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. The limits indicated by simulation were compared with data sets from real species. Instances where sampling effort had been either insufficient or inefficient were identified. The model results should form practical boundaries for studies aiming to detect SGS. However, greater sample sizes will be required in cases where SGS is weaker than for our simulated population, for example, in species with effective pollen/seed dispersal mechanisms.

Spatial and ontogenetic variation in growth of nursery-bound juvenile lemon sharks, Negaprion brevirostris: a comparison of two age-assigning techniques

We compared growth rates of the lemon shark, Negaprion brevirostris, from Bimini, Bahamas and the Marquesas Keys (MK), Florida using data obtained in a multi-year annual census. We marked new neonate and juvenile sharks with unique electronic identity tags in Bimini and in the MK we tagged neonate and juvenile sharks. Sharks were tagged with tiny, subcutaneous transponders, a type of tagging thought to cause little, if any disruption to normal growth patterns when compared to conventional external tagging. Within the first 2 years of this project, no age data were recorded for sharks caught for the first time in Bimini. Therefore, we applied and tested two methods of age analysis: ( 1) a modified 'minimum convex polygon' method and ( 2) a new age-assigning method, the 'cut-off technique'. The cut-off technique proved to be the more suitable one, enabling us to identify the age of 134 of the 642 previously unknown aged sharks. This maximised the usable growth data included in our analysis. Annual absolute growth rates of juvenile, nursery-bound lemon sharks were almost constant for the two Bimini nurseries and can be best described by a simple linear model ( growth data was only available for age-0 sharks in the MK). Annual absolute growth for age-0 sharks was much greater in the MK than in either the North Sound (NS) and Shark Land (SL) at Bimini. Growth of SL sharks was significantly faster during the first 2 years of life than of the sharks in the NS population. However, in MK, only growth in the first year was considered to be reliably estimated due to low recapture rates. Analyses indicated no significant differences in growth rates between males and females for any area.

Analysis of cardiac ventricular wall motion based on a three-dimensional electromechanical biventricular model

This paper describes a biventricular model, which couples the electrical and mechanical properties of the heart, and computer simulations of ventricular wall motion and deformation by means of a biventricular model. In the constructed electromechanical model, the mechanical analysis was based on composite material theory and the finite-element method; the propagation of electrical excitation was simulated using an electrical heart model, and the resulting active forces were used to calculate ventricular wall motion. Regional deformation and Lagrangian strain tensors were calculated during the systole phase. Displacements, minimum principal strains and torsion angle were used to describe the motion of the two ventricles. The simulations showed that during the period of systole, (1) the right ventricular free wall moves towards the septum, and at the same time, the base and middle of the free wall move towards the apex, which reduces the volume of the right ventricle; the minimum principle strain (E3) is largest at the apex, then at the middle of the free wall and its direction is in the approximate direction of the epicardial muscle fibres; (2) the base and middle of the left ventricular free wall move towards the apex and the apex remains almost static; the torsion angle is largest at the apex; the minimum principle strain E3 is largest at the apex and its direction on the surface of the middle wall of the left ventricle is roughly in the fibre orientation. These results are in good accordance with results obtained from MR tagging images reported in the literature. This study suggests that such an electromechanical biventricular model has the potential to be used to assess the mechanical function of the two ventricles, and also could improve the accuracy ECG simulation when it is used in heart torso model-based body surface potential simulation studies.

A multiresolution terrain model for efficient visualization query processing

Multiresolution Triangular Mesh (MTM) models are widely used to improve the performance of large terrain visualization by replacing the original model with a simplified one. MTM models, which consist of both original and simplified data, are commonly stored in spatial database systems due to their size. The relatively slow access speed of disks makes data retrieval the bottleneck of such terrain visualization systems. Existing spatial access methods proposed to address this problem rely on main-memory MTM models, which leads to significant overhead during query processing. In this paper, we approach the problem from a new perspective and propose a novel MTM called direct mesh that is designed specifically for secondary storage. It supports available indexing methods natively and requires no modification to MTM structure. Experiment results, which are based on two real-world data sets, show an average performance improvement of 5-10 times over the existing methods.

Sensitivity of marine-reserve design to the spatial resolution of socioeconomic data

Socioeconomic considerations should have an important place in reserve design, Systematic reserve-selection tools allow simultaneous optimization for ecological objectives while minimizing costs but are seldom used to incorporate socioeconomic costs in the reserve-design process. The sensitivity of this process to biodiversity data resolution has been studied widely but the issue of socioeconomic data resolution has not previously been considered. We therefore designed marine reserves for biodiversity conservation with the constraint of minimizing commercial fishing revenue losses and investigated how economic data resolution affected the results. Incorporating coarse-resolution economic data from official statistics generated reserves that were only marginally less costly to the fishery than those designed with no attempt to minimize economic impacts. An intensive survey yielded fine-resolution data that, when incorporated in the design process, substantially reduced predicted fishery losses. Such an approach could help minimize fisher displacement because the least profitable grounds are selected for the reserve. Other work has shown that low-resolution biodiversity data can lead to underestimation of the conservation value of some sites, and a risk of overlooking the most valuable areas, and we have similarly shown that low-resolution economic data can cause underestimation of the profitability of some sites and a risk of inadvertently including these in the reserve. Detailed socioeconomic data are therefore an essential input for the design of cost-effective reserve networks.

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The displacement and strain field of three-dimensional rheologic model of earthquake preparation

Based on the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii, we developed a rheological inclusion model to study earthquake preparation processes. By using the Corresponding Principle in the theory of rheologic mechanics, we derived the analytic expressions of viscoelastic displacement U(r, t) , V(r, t) and W(r, t), normal strains epsilon(xx) (r, t), epsilon(yy) (r, t) and epsilon(zz) (r, t) and the bulk strain theta (r, t) at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in three directions of X axis, Y axis and Z axis produced by a three-dimensional inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model. Subsequent to the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain being computed on the ground produced by such a spherical rheologic inclusion, interesting results are obtained, suggesting that the bulk strain produced by a hard inclusion change with time according to three stages (alpha, beta, gamma) with different characteristics, similar to that of geodetic deformation observations, but different with the results of a soft inclusion. These theoretical results can be used to explain the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution, patterns, quadrant-distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to build physical models for earthquake precursors and to predict the earthquakes.

The temporal and spatial limits of compensation for fixational eye movements

High-fidelity eye tracking is combined with a perceptual grouping task to provide insight into the likely mechanisms underlying the compensation of retinal image motion caused by movement of the eyes. The experiments describe the covert detection of minute temporal and spatial offsets incorporated into a test stimulus. Analysis of eye motion on individual trials indicates that the temporal offset sensitivity is actually due to motion of the eye inducing artificial spatial offsets in the briefly presented stimuli. The results have strong implications for two popular models of compensation for fixational eye movements, namely efference copy and image-based models. If an efference copy model is assumed, the results place constraints on the spatial accuracy and source of compensation. If an image-based model is assumed then limitations are placed on the integration time window over which motion estimates are calculated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type III secretion contact-dependent model for the intracellular development of Chlamydia

The medically significant genus Chlamydia is a class of obligate intracellular bacterial pathogens that replicate within vacuoles in host eukaryotic cells termed inclusions. Chlamydia's developmental cycle involves two forms; an infectious extracellular form, known as an elementary body (EB), and a non-infectious form, known as the reticulate body (RB), that replicates inside the vacuoles of the host cells. The RB surface is covered in projections that are in intimate contact with the inclusion membrane. Late in the developmental cycle, these reticulate bodies differentiate into the elementary body form. In this paper, we present a hypothesis for the modulation of these developmental events involving the contact-dependent type III secretion (TTS) system. TTS surface projections mediate intimate contact between the RB and the inclusion membrane. Below a certain number of projections, detachment of the RB provides a signal for late differentiation of RB into EB. We use data and develop a mathematical model investigating this hypothesis. If the hypothesis proves to be accurate, then we have shown that increasing the number of inclusions per host cell will increase the number of infectious progeny EB until some optimal number of inclusions. For more inclusions than this optimum, the infectious yield is reduced because of spatial restrictions. We also predict that a reduction in the number of projections on the surface of the RB (and as early as possible during development) will significantly reduce the burst size of infectious EB particles. Many of the results predicted by the model can be tested experimentally and may lead to the identification of potential targets for drug design. © Society for Mathematical Biology 2006.

AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model): A tool for identifying wind erosion hazard in Australia

We present AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model), a land erodibility modelling system that utilizes a rule-set of surficial and climatic thresholds applied through a Geographic Information System (GIs) modelling framework to predict landscape susceptibility to wind erosion. AUSLEM is distinctive in that it quantitatively assesses landscape susceptibility to wind erosion at a 5 x 5 km. spatial resolution on a monthly time-step across Australia. The system was implemented for representative wet (1984), dry (1994), and average rainfall (1997) years with corresponding low, high and moderate dust storm day frequencies. Results demonstrate that AUSLEM can identify landscape erodibility, and provide an interpretation of the physical nature and distribution of erodible landscapes in Australia. Further, results offer an assessment of the dynamic tendencies of erodibility in space and time in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal synoptic scale climate variability. A comparative analysis of AUSLEM output with independent national and international wind erosion, atmospheric aerosol and dust event records indicates a high level of model competency. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.