Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region and the African and Indian monsoon regions.

Generation and Evolution of Natal Pulses: Solitary Meanders in the Agulhas Current

Solitar y meanders of the Agulhas Current, so-called Natal pulses, may play an important role in the overall dynamics of this current system. Several hypotheses concer ning the triggering of these pulses are tested using sea sur face height and temperature data from satellites. The data show the for mation of pulses in the Natal Bight area at irregular inter vals ranging from 50 to 240 days. Moving downstream at speeds between 10 and 20 km day 2 1 they sometimes reach sizes of up to 300 km. They seem to play a role in the shedding of Agulhas rings that penetrate the South Atlantic. The inter mittent for mation of these solitar y meanders is argued to be most probably related to barotropic instability of the strongly baroclinic Agulhas Current in the Natal Bight. The vorticity structure of the obser ved basic flow is argued to be stable anywhere along its path. However , a proper perturbation of the jet in the Natal Bight area will allow barotropic instability , because the bottom slope there is considerably less steep than elsewhere along the South African east coast. Using satellite altimetr y these perturbations seem to be related to the inter mittent presence of offshore anticyclonic anomalies, both upstream and eastward of the Natal Bight.

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

A Lagrangian identification of major sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin

[1] This work examines the main sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin during the year through a new Lagrangian diagnosis method which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories for the previous 10 d. The origin of all air masses residing over each region was tracked during a period of 5 years (2000-2004). These regions were selected because they coincide with two centers of action of a known dipole precipitation variability mode observed in different temporal scales (from intra seasonal up to inter decadal timescales) and are related to the climatic variability of the South American Monsoon System. The results suggested the importance of the tropical south Atlantic as a moisture source for Central Brazil, and of recycling for La Plata basin. It seems that the Tropical South Atlantic plays an important role as a moisture source for Central Brazil and La Plata basin along the year, particularly during the austral summer. The north Atlantic is also an additional source for both regions during the austral summer.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Upper-mantle seismic structure beneath SE and Central Brazil from P- and S-wave regional traveltime tomography

We present models for the upper-mantle velocity structure beneath SE and Central Brazil using independent tomographic inversions of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals (including core phases) from teleseismic earthquakes. The events were recorded by a total of 92 stations deployed through different projects, institutions and time periods during the years 1992-2004. Our results show correlations with the main tectonic structures and reveal new anomalies not yet observed in previous works. All interpretations are based on robust anomalies, which appear in the different inversions for P-and S-waves. The resolution is variable through our study volume and has been analyzed through different theoretical test inversions. High-velocity anomalies are observed in the western portion of the Sao Francisco Craton, supporting the hypothesis that this Craton was part of a major Neoproterozoic plate (San Franciscan Plate). Low-velocity anomalies beneath the Tocantins Province (mainly fold belts between the Amazon and Sao Francisco Cratons) are interpreted as due to lithospheric thinning, which is consistent with the good correlation between intraplate seismicity and low-velocity anomalies in this region. Our results show that the basement of the Parana Basin is formed by several blocks, separated by suture zones, according to model of Milani & Ramos. The slab of the Nazca Plate can be observed as a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parana Basin, between the depths of 700 and 1200 km. Further, we confirm the low-velocity anomaly in the NE area of the Parana Basin which has been interpreted by VanDecar et al. as a fossil conduct of the Tristan da Cunha Plume related to the Parana flood basalt eruptions during the opening of the South Atlantic.

Food resources influencing the asexual reproductive cycle of coronate Scyphozoa

The study of the strobilation process, a feature unique in the class Scyphozoa, is an issue that helps understanding the patterns of asexual reproduction in sessile invertebrates. Many inducers of asexual reproduction are known for scyphozoans. However, the influence of food resources on the strobilation of Coronate Scyphozoa has never been tested. WO observed strobilation of a large number of polyps of Nausithoe aurea, from a wide sampling area along the South Atlantic coast of Brazil, through the administration of controlled number of hatched nauplii of Artemia franciscana under a previous tested starvation and feeding protocol. The number of strobilations between and within groups varied and the fate and shape of strobilation deviated from the biology reported in the original description. Artificial seawater was used to reduce the influence of dissolved organic matter as likely important alternative nourishment.

Neoproterozoic geodynamic evolution of SW-Gondwana: a southern African perspective

Our current understanding of the tectonic history of the principal Pan-African orogenic belts in southwestern Africa, reaching from the West Congo Belt in the north to the Lufilian/Zambezi, Kaoko, Damara, Gariep and finally the Saldania Belt in the south, is briefly summarized. On that basis, possible links with tectono-stratigraphic units and major structures on the eastern side of the Rio de la Plata Craton are suggested, and a revised geodynamic model for the amalgamation of SW-Gondwana is proposed. The Rio de la Plata and Kalahari Cratons are considered to have become juxtaposed already by the end of the Mesoproterozoic. Early Neoproterozoic rifting led to the fragmentation of the northwestern (in today`s coordinates) Kalahari Craton and the splitting off of several small cratonic blocks. The largest of these ex-Kalahari cratonic fragments is probably the Angola Block. Smaller fragments include the Luis Alves and Curitiba microplates in eastern Brazil, several basement inliers within the Damara Belt, and an elongate fragment off the western margin, named Arachania. The main suture between the Kalahari and the Congo-So Francisco Cratons is suspected to be hidden beneath younger cover between the West Congo Belt and the Lufilian/Zambezi Belts and probably continues westwards via the Cabo Frio Terrane into the Goias magmatic arc along the Brasilia Belt. Many of the rift grabens that separated the various former Kalahari cratonic fragments did not evolve into oceanic basins, such as the Northern Nosib Rift in the Damara Belt and the Gariep rift basin. Following latest Cryogenian/early Ediacaran closure of the Brazilides Ocean between the Rio de la Plata Craton and the westernmost fragment of the Kalahari Craton, the latter, Arachania, became the locus of a more than 1,000-km-long continental magmatic arc, the Cuchilla Dionisio-Pelotas Arc. A correspondingly long back-arc basin (Marmora Basin) on the eastern flank of that arc is recognized, remnants of which are found in the Marmora Terrane-the largest accumulation of oceanic crustal material known from any of the Pan-African orogenic belts in the region. Corresponding foredeep deposits that emerged from the late Ediacaran closure of this back-arc basin are well preserved in the southern areas, i.e. the Punta del Este Terrane, the Marmora Terrane and the Tygerberg Terrane. Further to the north, present erosion levels correspond with much deeper crustal sections and comparable deposits are not preserved anymore. Closure of the Brazilides Ocean, and in consequence of the Marmora back-arc basin, resulted from a change in the Rio de la Plata plate motion when the Iapetus Ocean opened between the latter and Laurentia towards the end of the Ediacaran. Later break-up of Gondwana and opening of the modern South Atlantic would have followed largely along the axis of the Marmora back-arc basin and not along major continental sutures.

Tectonic fabric revealed by AARM of the proterozoic mafic dike swarm in the Salvador city (Bahia state): Sao Francisco Craton, NE Brazil

Magnetic fabric and rock magnetism studies were performed on 25 unmetamorphosed mafic dikes of the Meso-Late Proterozoic (similar to 1.02 Ga) dike swarm from Salvador (Bahia State, NE Brazil). This area lies in the north-eastern part of the Sao Francisco Craton, which was dominantly formed/reworked during the Transamazonian orogeny (2.14-1.94 Ga). The dikes crop out along the beaches and in quarries around Salvador city, and cut across both amphibolite dikes and granulites. Their widths range from a few centimeters up to 30 m with an average of similar to 4 m, and show two main trends N 140-190 and N 100-120 with vertical dips. Magnetic fabrics were determined using both anisotropy of low-field magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and anisotropy of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (AARM). The magnetic mineralogy was investigated by many experiments including remanent magnetization measurements at variable low temperatures (10-300 K), Mossbauer spectroscopy, high temperature magnetization curves (25-700 degrees C) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The rock magnetism study suggests pseudo-single-domain magnetite grains carrying the bulk magnetic susceptibility and AARM fabrics. The magnetite grains found in these dikes are large and we discard the presence of single-domain grains. Its composition is close to stoichiometric with low Ti substitution, and its Verwey transition occurs around 120 K. The main AMS fabric recognized in the swarm is so-called normal, in which the K(max)-K(int) plane is parallel to the dike plane and the magnetic foliation pole K(min)) is perpendicular to it. This fabric is interpreted as due to magma flow, and analysis of the K m inclination permitted to infer that approximately 80% of the dikes were fed by horizontal or sub-horizontal flows (K(max) < 30 degrees). This interpretation is supported by structural field evidence found in five dikes. In addition, based on the plunge of K(max), two mantle sources could be inferred; one of them which fed about 80% of the swarm would be located in the southern part of the region, and the other underlied the Valeria quarry. However, for all dikes the AARM tensors are not coaxial with AMS fabrics and show a magnetic lineation (AARM(max)) oriented to N30-60E, suggesting that magnetite grains were rotated clockwise from dike plane. The orientation of AARM lineation is similar to the orientation of a system of faults in which the Salvador normal fault is the most important. These faults were formed during Cretaceous rifting in the Reconcavo-Tucano-jatoba assemblage that corresponds to an aborted intra-continental rift formed during the opening of the South Atlantic. Therefore, the AARM fabric found for the Salvador dikes is probably tectonic in origin and suggests that the dike swarm was affected by the important tectonic event responsible for the break-up of the Gondwanaland. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Petrogenesis of Early Cretaceous silicic volcanism in SE Uruguay: The role of mantle and crustal sources

Early Cretaceous (similar to 129 Ma) silicic rocks crop out in SE Uruguay between the Laguna Merin and Santa Lucia basins in the Lascano, Sierra Sao Miguel. Salamanca and Minas areas They are mostly rhyolites with minor quartz-trachytes and are nearly contemporaneous with the Parana-Etendeka igneous province and with the first stages of South Atlantic Ocean opening A strong geochemical variability (particularly evident from Rb/Nb, Nb/Y trace element ratios) and a wide range of Sr-Nd isotopic ratios ((143)Nd/(144)Nd((129)) = 0.51178-0.51209, (87)Sr/(86)Sr((129)) = 0.70840-0.72417) characterize these rocks Geochemistry allows to distiniguish two compositional groups, corresponding to the north-eastern (Lascano and Sierra Sao Miguel, emplaced on the Neo-Proterozoic southern sector of the Dom Feliciano mobile belt) and south-eastern localities (Salamanca, Minas, emplace on the much older (Archean) Nico Perez teriane or on the boundary between the Dom Feliciano and Nico Perez termites) These compositional differences between the two groups are explained by variable mantle source and crust contributions. The origin of the silicic magmas is best explained by complex processes involving assimilation and fractional crystallization and mixing of a basaltic magma with upper crustal lithologies, for Lascano and Sierra Sao Miguel rhyolites. In the Salamanea and Minas rocks genesis, a stronger contribution from lower crust is indicated.

Denudation history of the Bocaina Plateau, Serra do Mar, southeastern Brazil: Relationships to Gondwana breakup and passive margin development

The Bocaina Plateau, which is situated on the eastern flank of the continental rift of southeastern Brazil, is the highest part of the Serra do Mar. Topographic relief in this area is suggested to be closely related to its complex tectono-magmatic evolution since the breakup of Western Gondwana and opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. Apatite fission track ages and track length distributions from 27 basement outcrops were determined to assess these hypotheses and reconstruct the denudation history of the Bocaina Plateau. The ages range between 303 +/- 32 and 46 +/- 5 Ma, and are significantly younger than the stratigraphic ages. Mean track lengths vary from 13.44 +/- 1.51 to 11.1 +/- 1.48 mu m, with standard deviations between 1.16 and 1.83 mu m. Contrasting ages within a single plateau and similar ages at different altitudes indicate a complex regional tectonothermal evolution. The thermal histories inferred from these data imply three periods of accelerated cooling related to the Early Cretaceous continental breakup, Early Cretaceous alkaline magmatism, and the Paleogene evolution of the continental rift of southeastern Brazil. The oldest fission track ages (>200 Ma) were obtained in the Serra do Mar region, suggesting that these areas were a long-lived source of sediments for the Parana, Bauru, and Santos basins. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The onset of flood basalt volcanism, Northern Parana Basin, Brazil: A precise U-Pb baddeleyite/zircon age for a Chapeco-type dacite

We report the first U-Pb baddeleyite/zircon date for a felsic volcanic rock from the Parana Large Igneous Province in south Brazil. The new date of 134.3 +/- 0.8 Ma for a hypocrystalline Chapeco-type dacite from Ourinhos (northern Parana basin) is an important regional time marker for the onset of flood basalt volcanism in the northern and western portion of the province. The dated dacite was erupted onto basement rocks and is overlain by a high-Ti basalt sequence, interpreted to be correlative with Pitanga basalts elsewhere. This new U-Pb date for the Ourinhos dacite is consistent with the local stratigraphy being slightly older than the few reliable step-heating (40)Ar/(39)Ar dates currently available for overlying high-Ti basalts (133.6-131.5 Ma). This indicates an similar to 3 Ma time span for the building of the voluminous high-Ti lava sequence of the Parana basin. On the other hand, it overlaps the (40)Ar/(39)Ar dates (134.8-134.1 Ma) available for the stratigraphically older low-Ti basalt (Gramado + Esmeralda types) and dacite-rhyolite (Palmas type) sequences from South Brazil, which is consistent with the short-lived character of this volcanism and its rapid succession by the high-Ti sequence. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.