A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Aerosol direct radiative effect of smoke over clouds over the southeast Atlantic Ocean from 2006 to 2009

The aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) of African smoke was analyzed in cloud scenes over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, using Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) satellite observations and Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) climate model simulations. The observed mean DRE was about 30–35 W m−2 in August and September 2006–2009. In some years, short episodes of high-aerosol DRE can be observed, due to high-aerosol loadings, while in other years the loadings are lower but more prolonged. Climate models that use evenly distributed monthly averaged emission fields will not reproduce these high-aerosol loadings. Furthermore, the simulated monthly mean aerosol DRE in HadGEM2 is only about 6 W m−2 in August. The difference with SCIAMACHY mean observations can be partly explained by an underestimation of the aerosol absorption Ångström exponent in the ultraviolet. However, the subsequent increase of aerosol DRE simulation by about 20% is not enough to explain the observed discrepancy between simulations and observations.

The effect of rapid changes in ionospheric flow on velocity vectors deduced from radar beam-swinging experiments

The effects on the horizontal ionospheric velocity vectors deduced from radar beam-swinging experiments, which occur when changes in the flow take place on short time scales compared with the experiment cycle time, are analysed in detail. The further complications which arise in the interpretation of beam-swinging data, due to longitudinal gradients in the flow and to field-aligned flows, are also considered. It is concluded that these effects are unlikely to seriously compromise statistical determinations of the response time of the flow, e.g. to changes in the north-south component of the IMF, such as have been recently reported by Etemadiet al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci.36, 471), using EISCAT ‘Polar’ data.

Effect of cinnamon on gastric emptying, arterial stiffness, postprandial lipemia, glycemia, and appetite responses to high-fat breakfast

Abstract BACKGROUND: Cinnamon has been shown to delay gastric emptying of a high-carbohydrate meal and reduce postprandial glycemia in healthy adults. However, it is dietary fat which is implicated in the etiology and is associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. We aimed to determine the effect of 3 g cinnamon (Cinnamomum zeylanicum) on GE, postprandial lipemic and glycemic responses, oxidative stress, arterial stiffness, as well as appetite sensations and subsequent food intake following a high-fat meal. METHODS: A single-blind randomized crossover study assessed nine healthy, young subjects. GE rate of a high-fat meal supplemented with 3 g cinnamon or placebo was determined using the 13C octanoic acid breath test. Breath, blood samples and subjective appetite ratings were collected in the fasted and during the 360 min postprandial period, followed by an ad libitum buffet meal. Gastric emptying and 1-day fatty acid intake relationships were also examined. RESULTS: Cinnamon did not change gastric emptying parameters, postprandial triacylglycerol or glucose concentrations, oxidative stress, arterial function or appetite (p < 0.05). Strong relationships were evident (p < 0.05) between GE Thalf and 1-day palmitoleic acid (r = -0.78), eiconsenoic acid (r = -0.84) and total omega-3 intake (r = -0.72). The ingestion of 3 g cinnamon had no effect on GE, arterial stiffness and oxidative stress following a HF meal. CONCLUSIONS: 3 g cinnamon did not alter the postprandial response to a high-fat test meal. We find no evidence to support the use of 3 g cinnamon supplementation for the prevention or treatment of metabolic disease. Dietary fatty acid intake requires consideration in future gastrointestinal studies.

Bizzy Break! The effect of a classroom-based activity break on in-school physical activity levels of primary school children

The school has been identified as a key setting to promote physical activity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a classroom-based activity break on in-school step counts of primary school children. Data for 90 children (49 boys, 41 girls, 9.3 ± 1.4 years) from three Irish primary schools is presented. In each school one class was randomly assigned as the intervention group and another as controls. Children's step counts were measured for five consecutive days during school hours at baseline and follow-up. Teachers of the intervention classes led a 10 min activity break in the classroom each day (Bizzy Break!). Mean daily in-school steps for the intervention at baseline and follow-up were 5351 and 5054. Corresponding values for the control group were 5469 and 4246. There was a significant difference in the change in daily steps from baseline to follow-up between groups (p < .05). There was no evidence that girls and boys responded differently to the intervention (p > .05). Children participating in a daily 10 min classroom-based activity break undertake more physical activity during school hours than controls.

Observations on the flight paths of the day-flying moth Virbia lamae during periods of mate location: do males have a strategy for contacting the pheromone plume?

1. To maximize the probability of rapid contact with a female’s pheromone plume, the trajectories of male foraging flights might be expected to be directed with respect to wind flow and also to be energetically efficient. 2. Flights directed either upwind, downwind, or crosswind have been proposed as optimal strategies for rapid and/or energetically efficient plume contact. Other possible strategies are random and Lévy walks, which have trajectories and turn frequencies that are not dictated by the direction of wind flow. 3. The planar flight paths of males of the day-active moth Virbia lamae were recorded during the customary time of its sexual activity. 4. We found no directional preference in these foraging flights with respect to the direction of contemporaneous wind flow, but, because crosswind encompasses twice the possible orientations of either upwind or downwind, a random orientation is in effect a de facto crosswind strategy. 5. A crosswind preference should be favoured when the plume extends farther downwind than crosswind, and this strategy is realized by V. lamae males by a random orientation of their trajectories with respect to current wind direction

Methane emissions from cattle: estimates from short-term measurements using a Green Feed system compared with measurements obtained using respiration chambers or sulphur hexafluoride tracer

The Green Feed (GF) system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, USA) is used to estimate total daily methane emissions of individual cattle using short-term measurements obtained over several days. Our objective was to compare measurements of methane emission by growing cattle obtained using the GF system with measurements using respiration chambers (RC)or sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6). It was hypothesised that estimates of methane emission for individual animals and treatments would be similar for GF compared to RC or SF6 techniques. In experiment 1, maize or grass silage-based diets were fed to four growing Holstein heifers, whilst for experiment 2, four different heifers were fed four haylage treatments. Both experiments were a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33 day periods. Green Feed measurements of methane emission were obtained over 7 days (days 22–28) and com-pared to subsequent RC measurements over 4 days (days 29–33). For experiment 3, 12growing heifers rotationally grazed three swards for 26 days, with simultaneous GF and SF6 measurements over two 4 day measurement periods (days 15–19 and days 22–26).Overall methane emissions (g/day and g/kg dry matter intake [DMI]) measured using GF in experiments 1 (198 and 26.6, respectively) and 2 (208 and 27.8, respectively) were similar to averages obtained using RC (218 and 28.3, respectively for experiment 1; and 209 and 27.7, respectively, for experiment 2); but there was poor concordance between the two methods (0.1043 for experiments 1 and 2 combined). Overall, methane emissions measured using SF6 were higher (P<0.001) than GF during grazing (186 vs. 164 g/day), but there was significant (P<0.01) concordance between the two methods (0.6017). There were fewer methane measurements by GF under grazing conditions in experiment 3 (1.60/day) com-pared to indoor measurements in experiments 1 (2.11/day) and 2 (2.34/day). Significant treatment effects on methane emission measured using RC and SF6 were not evident for GF measurements, and the ranking for treatments and individual animals differed using the GF system. We conclude that under our conditions of use the GF system was unable to detectsignificant treatment and individual animal differences in methane emissions that were identified using both RC and SF6techniques, in part due to limited numbers and timing ofmeasurements obtained. Our data suggest that successful use of the GF system is reliant on the number and timing of measurements obtained relative to diurnal patterns of methane emission.

An in vitro study of the effect of probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics on the elderly faecal microbiota

The use of dietary intervention in the elderly in order to beneficially modulate their gut microbiota has not been extensively studied. The influence of two probiotics (Bifidobacterium longum and Lactobacillus fermentum) and two prebiotics [isomaltooligosaccharides (IMO) and short-chain fructooligosaccharides (FOS)], individually and in synbiotic combinations (B. longum with IMO, L. fermentum with FOS) on the gut microbiota of elderly individuals was investigated using faecal batch cultures and three-stage continuous culture systems. Population changes of major bacterial groups were enumerated using fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH). B. longum and IMO alone significantly increased the Bifidobacterium count after 5 and 10 h of fermentation and their synbiotic combination significantly decreased the Bacteroides count after 5 h of fermentation. L. fermentum and FOS alone significantly increased the Bifidobacterium count after 10 h and 5, 10 and 24 h of fermentation respectively. B. longum with IMO as well as B. longum and IMO alone significantly increased acetic acid concentration during the fermentation in batch cultures. In the three-stage continuous culture systems, both synbiotic combinations increased the Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus count in the third vessel representing the distal colon. In addition, the synbiotic combination of L. fermentum with scFOS resulted in a significant increase in the concentration of acetic acid. The results show that the elderly gut microbiota can be modulated in vitro with the appropriate pro-, pre- and synbiotics.

Effect of prebiotics on the fecal microbiota of elderly volunteers after dietary supplementation of Bacillus coagulans GBI-30, 6086

In advancing age, gut populations of beneficial microbes, notably Bifidobacterium spp., show a marked decline. This contributes to an environment less capable of maintaining homoeostasis. This in vitro investigation studied the possible synergistic effects of probiotic supplementation in modulating the gut microbiota enabling prebiotic therapy to in elderly persons. Single stage batch culture anaerobic fermenters were used and inoculated with fecal microbiota obtained from volunteers after taking a 28 day treatment of Bacillus coagulans GBI-30, 6086 (GanedenBC30 (BC30)) or a placebo. The response to prebiotic supplements fructooligosaccharides (FOS) and galactooligosaccharides (GOS) in the fermenters was assessed. Bacterial enumeration was carried out using fluorescent in situ hybridisation and organic acids measured by gas chromatography. Baseline populations of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Clostridium lituseburense and Bacillus spp. were significantly higher in those having consumed BC30 compared to the placebo. Both prebiotics increased populations of several purportedly beneficial bacterial groups in both sets of volunteers. Samples from volunteers having ingested the BC30 also increased populations of C. lituseburense, Eubacterium rectale and F. prausnitzii more so than in persons who had consumed the placebo, this also resulted in significantly higher concentrations of butyrate, acetate and propionate. This shows that consumption of BC30 and subsequent use of prebiotics resulted in elevated populations of beneficial genres of bacteria as well as organic acid production

Effect of high temperature and water stress on groundnuts under field conditions

Groundnuts cultivated in the semiarid tropics are often exposed to water stress (mid-season and end season) and high temperature (> 34 °C) during the critical stages of flowering and pod development. This study evaluated the effects of both water stress and high temperature under field conditions at ICRISAT, India. Treatments included two irrigations (full irrigation, 100 % of crop evapotranspiration; and water stress, 40 % of crop evapotranspiration), four temperature treatments from a combination of two sowing dates and heat tunnels with mean temperatures from sowing to maturity of 26.3° (T1), 27.3° (T2), 29.0° (T3) and 29.7 °C (T4) and two genotypes TMV2 and ICGS 11. The heat tunnels were capable of raising the day temperature by > 10 °C compared to ambient. During the 20-day high-temperature treatment at flowering, mean temperatures were 33.8° (T1), 41.6° (T2), 38.7° (T3) and 43.5°C (T4). The effects of water stress and high temperature were additive and temporary for both vegetative and pod yield, and disappeared as soon as high-temperature stress was removed. Water use efficiency was significantly affected by the main effects of temperature and cultivar and not by water stress treatments. Genotypic differences for tolerance to high temperature can be attributed to differences in flowering pattern, flower number, peg-set and harvest index. It can be inferred from this study that genotypes that are tolerant to water stress are also tolerant to high temperature under field conditions. In addition, genotypes with an ability to establish greater biomass and with a significantly greater partitioning of biomass to pod yield would be suitable for sustaining higher yields in semiarid tropics with high temperature and water stress.

A randomised, double- blind, cross-over study investigating the prebiotic effect of agave fructans in healthy human subjects

This placebo-controlled, randomised, double-blind, cross-over human feeding study aimed to determine the prebiotic effect of agave fructans. A total of thirty-eight volunteers completed this trial. The treatment consisted of 3 weeks' supplementation with 5 g/d of prebiotic agave fructan (Predilife) or equivalent placebo (maltodextrin), followed by a 2-week washout period following which subjects were crossed over to alternate the treatment arm for 3 weeks followed by a 2-week washout. Faecal samples were collected at baseline, on the last day of treatment (days 22 and 58) and washout (days 36 and 72), respectively. Changes in faecal bacterial populations, SCFA and secretory IgA were assessed using fluorescent in situ hybridisation, GC and ELISA, respectively. Bowel movements, stool consistencies, abdominal comfort and mood changes were evaluated by a recorded daily questionnaire. In parallel, the effect of agave fructans on different regions of the colon using a three-stage continuous culture simulator was studied. Predilife significantly increased faecal bifidobacteria (log10 9·6 (sd 0·4)) and lactobacilli (log10 7·7 (sd 0·8)) compared with placebo (log10 9·2 (sd 0·4); P = 0·00) (log10 7·4 (sd 0·7); P = 0·000), respectively. No change was observed for other bacterial groups tested, SCFA, secretory IgA, and PGE2 concentrations between the treatment and placebo. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis indicated that bacterial communities were randomly dispersed and no significant differences were observed between Predilife and placebo treatments. The in vitro models showed similar increases in bifidobacterial and lactobacilli populations to that observed with the in vivo trial. To conclude, agave fructans are well tolerated in healthy human subjects and increased bifidobacteria and lactobacilli numbers in vitro and in vivo but did not influence other products of fermentation

Persistence in diving American mink

Background American mink forage on land and in water, with aquatic prey often constituting a large proportion of their diet. Their long, thin body shape and relatively poor insulation make them vulnerable to heat loss, particularly in water, yet some individuals dive over 100 times a day. At the level of individual dives, previous research found no difference in dive depth or duration, or the total number of dives per day between seasons, but mink did appear to make more dives per active hour in winter than in summer. There was also no difference in the depth or duration of individual dives between the sexes, but there was some evidence that females made more dives per day than males. However, because individual mink dives tend to be extremely short in duration, persistence (quantified as the number of consecutive dives performed) may be a more appropriate metric with which to compare diving behaviour under different scenarios. Results Mink performed up to 28 consecutive dives, and dived continually for up to 36 min. Periods of more loosely aggregated diving (termed ‘aquatic activity sessions’) comprised up to 80 dives, carried out over up to 162.8 min. Contrary to our predictions, persistence was inversely proportional to body weight, with small animals more persistent than large ones, and (for females, but not for males) increased with decreasing temperature. For both sexes, persistence was greater during the day than during the night. Conclusions The observed body weight effect may point to inter-sexual niche partitioning, since in mink the smallest animals are females and the largest are males. The results may equally point to individual specialism’s, since persistence was also highly variable among individuals. Given the energetic costs involved, the extreme persistence of some animals observed in winter suggests that the costs of occasional prolonged activity in cold water are outweighed by the energetic gains. Analysing dive persistence can provide information on an animal’s physical capabilities for performing multiple dives and may reveal how such behaviour is affected by different conditions. Further development of monitoring and biologging methodology to allow quantification of hunting success, and thus the rewards obtained under alternative scenarios, would be insightful.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Short communication: estimation of the financial benefit of using Jersey milk at different inclusion rates for Cheddar cheese production using partial budgeting

Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

Prebiotic potential of a maize-based soluble fibre and impact of dose on the human gut microbiota

Dietary management of the human gut microbiota towards a more beneficial composition is one approach that may improve host health. To date, a large number of human intervention studies have demonstrated that dietary consumption of certain food products can result in significant changes in the composition of the gut microbiota i.e. the prebiotic concept. Thus the prebiotic effect is now established as a dietary approach to increase beneficial gut bacteria and it has been associated with modulation of health biomarkers and modulation of the immune system. Promitor™ Soluble Corn Fibre (SCF) is a well-known maize-derived source of dietary fibre with potential selective fermentation properties. Our aim was to determine the optimum prebiotic dose of tolerance, desired changes to microbiota and fermentation of SCF in healthy adult subjects. A double-blind, randomised, parallel study was completed where volunteers (n = 8/treatment group) consumed 8, 14 or 21 g from SCF (6, 12 and 18 g/fibre delivered respectively) over 14-d. Over the range of doses studied, SCF was well tolerated Numbers of bifidobacteria were significantly higher for the 6 g/fibre/day compared to 12g and 18g/fibre delivered/day (mean 9.25 and 9.73 Log10 cells/g fresh faeces in the pre-treatment and treatment periods respectively). Such a numerical change of 0.5 Log10 bifidobacteria/g fresh faeces is consistent with those changes observed for inulin-type fructans, which are recognised prebiotics. A possible prebiotic effect of SCF was therefore demonstrated by its stimulation of bifidobacteria numbers in the overall gut microbiota during a short-term intervention.