Low Socioeconomic Status is an Independent Risk Factor for Survival After Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair and Open Surgery for Peripheral Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: The association between socioeconomic status (SES), presentation, and outcome after vascular surgery is largely unknown. This study aimed to determine the influence of SES on post-operative survival and severity of disease at presentation among vascular surgery patients in the Dutch setting of equal access to and provision of care. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgical treatment for peripheral artery disease (PAD), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), or carotid artery stenosis between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. The association between SES, quantified by household income, disease severity at presentation, and survival was studied using logistic and Cox regression analysis adjusted for demographics, and medical and behavioral risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1,178 patients were included. Low income was associated with worse post-operative survival in the PAD cohort (n = 324, hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.10, per 5,000 Euro decrease) and the AAA cohort (n = 440, quadratic relation, p = .01). AAA patients in the lowest income quartile were more likely to present with a ruptured aneurysm (odds ratio [OR] 2.12, 95% CI 1.08-4.17). Lowest income quartile PAD patients presented more frequently with symptoms of critical limb ischemia, although no significant association could be established (OR 2.02, 95% CI 0.96-4.26). CONCLUSIONS: The increased health hazards observed in this study are caused by patient related factors rather than differences in medical care, considering the equality of care provided by the study setting. Although the exact mechanism driving the association between SES and worse outcome remains elusive, consideration of SES as a risk factor in pre-operative decision making and focus on treatment of known SES related behavioral and psychosocial risk factors may improve the outcome of patients with vascular disease.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review

Glaucoma is a multifactorial condition under serious influence of many risk factors. The role of diabetes mellitus (DM) in glaucoma etiology or progression remains inconclusive. Although, the diabetic patients have different healing mechanism comparing to the general population and it has a possible-negative role on surgical outcomes. This review article attempts to analyze the association of both diseases, glaucoma and DM, before and after the surgery. The epidemiological studies, based mainly in population prevalence analyzes, have shown opposite outcomes in time and even in the most recent articles also the association remains inconclusive. On the contrary, the experimental models based on animal induced chronic hyperglycemia have shown an important association of both diseases, explained by common neurodegenerative mechanisms. Diabetic patients have a different wound healing process in the eye viz-a-viz other organs. The healing process is more and it results in lower surgical survival time, higher intraocular pressure (IOP) levels and, therefore, these patients usually need more medication to lower the IOP. Both randomized and nonrandomized retrospective and experimental molecular studies have shown the association between DM and glaucoma. Further studies are needed to get better explanations about outcomes on more recent surgical procedures and with the exponential use of antifibrotics. How to cite this article: Costa L, Cunha JP, Amado D, Pinto LA, Ferreira J. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review.

Regulatory Cells, Cytokine Pattern and Clinical Risk Factors for Asthma in Infants and Young Children with Recurrent Wheeze

Several risk factors for asthma have been identified in infants and young children with recurrent wheeze. However, published literature has reported contradictory findings regarding the underlying immunological mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to assess and compare the immunological status during the first 2 years in steroid-naive young children with >or= three episodes of physician-confirmed wheeze (n=50), with and without clinical risk factors for developing subsequent asthma (i.e. parental asthma or a personal history of eczema and/or two of the following: wheezing without colds, a personal history of allergic rhinitis and peripheral blood eosinophilia >4%), with age-matched healthy controls (n=30). METHODS: Peripheral blood CD4(+)CD25(+) and CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells and their cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4), GITR and Foxp3 expression were analysed by flow cytometry. Cytokine (IFN-gamma, TGF-beta and IL-10), CTLA-4 and Foxp3 mRNA expression were evaluated (real-time PCR) after peripheral blood mononuclear cell stimulation with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (24 h) and house dust mite (HDM) extracts (7th day). RESULTS: Flow cytometry results showed a significant reduction in the absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(high) and the absolute and percentage numbers of CD4(+)CD25(+)CTLA-4(+) in wheezy children compared with healthy controls. Wheezy children at a high risk of developing asthma had a significantly lower absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(+) (P=0.01) and CD4(+)CD25(high) (P=0.04), compared with those at a low risk. After PMA stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and Foxp3 (P=0.02) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with the healthy children. After HDM stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and IFN-gamma (P=0.04) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with healthy children. High-risk children had lower expression of IFN-gamma (P=0.03) compared with low-risk and healthy children and lower expression of CTLA-4 (P=0.01) compared with healthy children. CONCLUSIONS: Although our findings suggest that some immunological parameters are impaired in children with recurrent wheeze, particularly with a high risk for asthma, further studies are needed in order to assess their potential as surrogate predictor factors for asthma in early life.

Development of a fuzzy qualitative risk assessment model applied to construction industry

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk and return: The international expansion of EDP Renováveis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Disposição para pagar uma intervenção para melhorar o controlo da hipertensão em hipertensos não controlados : um estudo-piloto

RESUMO - A valorização económica de intervenções preventivas pode contribuir para melhorar a afetação de recursos em saúde. A hipertensão, primeira causa de morte em Portugal, é um grave problema de saúde Pública e o principal fator de risco para a ocorrência de Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC). O presente estudo é um primeiro ensaio para quantificar a disposição para pagar (DPP) da sociedade por uma intervenção de promoção da adesão à terapêutica em hipertensos não controlados. Foi aplicado um questionário presencial a uma amostra de conveniência (n=93), numa perspetiva ex post, sendo o questionário constituído por dois formatos de questões e dois cenários de diferentes reduções de pressão arterial sistólica (cenário 1 corresponde à redução de 10 mmHg e cenário 2 à redução de 20 mmHg). O risco de AVC a 10 anos foi adaptado à idade e ao sexo de cada participante. Relativamente ao cenário 1, a DPP média foi de €25,87 e €33,93, dependendo do formato da questão (resposta aberta ou bidding game, respetivamente). Na questão de resposta aberta, 78,3% dos participantes estavam dispostos para pagar pela intervenção, no bidding game 75,6% dos participantes referiram estar dispostos para pagar pelo menos €10. No cenário 2, a DPP média foi de €26,81 e €34,79, dependendo se o formato da questão era do tipo resposta aberta ou bidding game, respetivamente. Na questão de resposta aberta, 84,3% dos participantes estavam dispostos para pagar pela intervenção, no bidding game 76,1% dos participantes referiram estar dispostos para pagar pelo menos €10. Ao contrário do bidding game, nas questões de resposta aberta verificou-se 25,8% e 24,7% de respostas “não sei”, para o cenário 1 e cenário 2 respetivamente, diretamente relacionada com a baixa escolaridade dos participantes (p=0,004). Também se verificou uma maior tendência para respostas às questões de bidding game com valores mais elevados, comparativamente às questões de resposta aberta. Identificaram-se duas variáveis explicativas para os valores DPP: o rendimento e a ocupação principal. A sensibilidade dos respondentes à magnitude dos ganhos em saúde foi verificada internamente em cada questionário (os participantes referiram DPP mais elevadas no cenário 2 relativamente ao cenário 1), no entanto, os participantes que beneficiariam mais da intervenção não demonstraram DPP superiores aos restantes. Para confirmar os efeitos identificados neste estudo e extrapolá-los para a população portuguesa é necessário realizar um estudo representativo de população portuguesa.

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Incidence of anti-toxoplasma antibodies in women with high-risk pregnancy and habitual abortions

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an obligate intracellular parasite. In pregnant women on the worldwide scale, there are seroprevalences from 7% to 51.3% and in women with abnormal pregnancies and abortions the seroprevalences vary from 17.5% to 52.3%. In Mexico, seropositivity has been found to vary from 18.2% to 44.8% in women with abnormal deliveries or abortions. This study's aim was to determine the incidence oflgG and IgM anti-Toxoplasma antibodies in women at the Gineco-Obstetrics Hospital of the Western Medical Center of the Mexican Social Security Institute. Three hundred and fifty women with high-risk pregnancies were studied, and 122 (34.9%) were found to be IgG seropositive and 76 (20.7%) were IgM positive. In one group of women with habitual abortions there were 48 (44.9%) with the preseiwe of IgG antibodies and 33 (33-3%) were IgM seropositive. Seropositivity was analyzed according to age, occupation, socio-economic level, eating raw or poorly cooked meat, and living with cats.

Risk factors associated with taeniasis-cysticercosis in Lagamar, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

An epidemiological survey was carried out in 3,344 people of an urban town in Lagamar, Minas Gerais, Brazil - during 1992-1993, to evaluate the main risk factors related to taeniasis and cysticercosis. A total number of 875 (78.9%) houses were visited and 1080 (32.3%) subjects were clinically examined. Poor sanitary conditions were positively associated with former history of taeniasis or seizures in households (p < 0.05). It was remarkable the positive relationship between taeniasis and seizures when households were questioned and subjects were clinically evaluated (p < 0.05). The relative risk of seizures was 2.3 between households and 1.7 for individuals clinically examined respectively. The breeding of swine nearby and the chronic carriers of taeniasis are determinant factors in the maintenance of the epidemiological link between taeniasis and cysticercosis in endemic areas.