A Dynamic Factor Approach to Mortality Modelling

Longevity risk has become one of the major risks facing the insurance and pensions markets globally. The trade in longevity risk is underpinned by accurate forecasting of mortality rates. Using techniques from macroeconomic forecasting, we propose a dynamic factor model of mortality that fits and forecasts mortality rates parsimoniously.We compare the forecasting quality of this model and of existing models and find that the dynamic factor model generally provides superior forecasts when applied to international mortality data. We also show that existing multifactorial models have superior fit but their forecasting performance worsens as more factors are added. The dynamic factor approach used here can potentially be further improved upon by applying an appropriate stopping rule for the number of static and dynamic factors. 

Elevated soluble cellular adhesion molecules are associated with increased mortality in a prospective cohort of renal transplant recipients

Increased plasma levels of cellular adhesion molecules (CAMs) have been shown to be predictors of all cause mortality in individuals with chronic renal failure 12 and patients with end-stage renal disease receiving haemodialysis 3. In renal transplant recipients the predictive value of CAMs has not been well characterised. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between CAMs and all-cause mortality during prospective follow-up of a renal transplant cohort.

Decreased serum retinol is associated with increased mortality in renal transplant recipients

Vitamin A plays a central role in epithelial integrity and immune function. Given the risk of infection after transplantation, adequate vitamin A concentrations may be important in patients with a transplant. We assessed whether there was an association between retinol concentration and all-cause mortality in renal transplant recipients.

Development of a novel experimental model to investigate radiobiological implications of respiratory motion in advanced radiotherapy

Respiratory motion introduces complex spatio-temporal variations in the dosimetry of radiotherapy. There is a paucity of literature investigating the radiobiological consequences of intrafraction motion and concerns regarding the impact of movement when applied to cancer cell lines in vitro exist. We have addressed this by developing a novel model which accurately replicates respiratory motion under experimental conditions to allow clinically relevant irradiation of cell lines. A bespoke phantom and motor driven moving platform was adapted to accommodate flasks containing medium and cells in order to replicate respiratory motion using varying frequencies and amplitude settings. To study this effect on cell survival in vitro, dose response curves were determined for human lung cancer cell lines H1299 and H460 exposed to a uniform 6 MV radiation field under moving or stationary conditions. Cell survival curves showed no significant difference between irradiation at different dose points for these cell lines in the presence or absence of motion. These data indicate that motion of unshielded cells in vitro does not affect cell survival in the presence of uniform irradiation. This model provides a novel research platform to investigate the radiobiological consequences of respiratory motion in radiotherapy.

Concise Review: Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Acute Lung Injury: Role of Paracrine Soluble Factor

Morbidity and mortality have declined only modestly in patients with clinical acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), despite extensive research into the pathophysiology. Current treatment remains primarily supportive with lung-protective ventilation and a fluid conservative strategy. Pharmacologic therapies that reduce the severity of lung injury in preclinical models have not yet been translated to effective clinical treatment options. Consequently, further research in translational therapies is needed. Cell-based therapy with mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) is one attractive new therapeutic approach. MSCs have the capacity to secrete multiple paracrine factors that can regulate endothelial and epithelial permeability, decrease inflammation, enhance tissue repair, and inhibit bacterial growth. This review will focus on recent studies, which support the potential therapeutic use of MSCs in ALI/ARDS, with an emphasis on the role of paracrine soluble factors.

The experiences of palliative care health service provision for people with non-malignant respiratory disease and their caregivers: an all-Ireland study

Aim: To explore the perception of palliative care provision for people with non-malignant respiratory disease from the perspective of bereaved caregivers.

Background: It is recognized that the majority of patients diagnosed with a malignant disease will have access to palliative care provision. However, it is less clear if the same standards of palliative care are available to those with non-malignant respiratory disease in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Design: A qualitative study based on broad interpretivism.

Methods: This research is a PhD study funded by the Department of Education and Learning in Northern Ireland (awarded February 2011). Data collection will consist of two stages; interviews with 20 bereaved caregivers of people who have died 3–18 months previously with a diagnosis of non-malignant respiratory disease and four focus groups with healthcare professionals involved in the care of this client group. This study will be carried out at four healthcare sites across the Island of Ireland. The data will be analysed using thematic content analysis. Research Ethics committee approval was obtained (March 2012).

Discussion: This research will explore the experiences of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Interstitial Lung Disease and Bronchiectasis and their caregivers from the perspective of the bereaved caregiver. The outcomes of this study will provide a critical first step in the development of more responsive palliative care for this client group and have important implications for future practice and policy in the palliative care provided to this client group.

Host cell kinases, α5 and β1 integrins, and Rac1 signalling on the microtubule cytoskeleton are important for non-typable Haemophilus influenzae invasion of respiratory epithelial cells

Non-typable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) is a common commensal of the human nasopharynx, but causes opportunistic infection when the respiratory tract is compromised by infection or disease. The ability of NTHi to invade epithelial cells has been described, but the underlying molecular mechanisms are poorly characterized. We previously determined that NTHi promotes phosphorylation of the serine-threonine kinase Akt in A549 human lung epithelial cells, and that Akt phosphorylation and NTHi cell invasion are prevented by inhibition of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K). Because PI3K-Akt signalling is associated with several host cell networks, the purpose of the current study was to identify eukaryotic molecules important for NTHi epithelial invasion. We found that inhibition of Akt activity reduced NTHi internalization; differently, bacterial entry was increased by phospholipase C?1 inhibition but was not affected by protein kinase inhibition. We also found that a5 and ß1 integrins, and the tyrosine kinases focal adhesion kinase and Src, are important for NTHi A549 cell invasion. NTHi internalization was shown to be favoured by activation of Rac1 guanosine triphosphatase (GTPase), together with the guanine nucleotide exchange factor Vav2 and the effector Pak1. Also, Pak1 might be associated with inactivation of the microtubule destabilizing agent Op18/stathmin, to facilitate microtubule polymerization and NTHi entry. Conversely, inhibition of RhoA GTPase and its effector ROCK increased the number of internalized bacteria. Src and Rac1 were found to be important for NTHi-triggered Akt phosphorylation. An increase in host cyclic AMP reduced bacterial entry, which was linked to protein kinase A. These findings suggest that NTHi finely manipulates host signalling molecules to invade respiratory epithelial cells.