Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Free for all : a case study examining implementation factors of one-to-one device programs

Despite significant investment in school one-to-one device programs, little is known about which aspects of program implementation work and why. Through a comparison of two implementation models, adopter-diffusion and saturation, and using existing data from the One Laptop per Child Australia laptop program, we explored how factors of implementation may affect device diffusion, learning and educational outcomes, and program sustainability in schools. In this article we argue that more focused research into implementation of one-to-one device programs, moving beyond comparisons of “devices versus without devices,” is needed to provide reliable data to inform future program funding and advance this area of research.

Using objective physical activity measures with youth : How many days of monitoring are needed?

Purpose The purpose of this study was to establish the minimal number of days of monitoring required for accelerometers to assess usual physical activity in children. Methods A total of 381 students (189 M, 192 F) wore a CSA 7164 uniaxial accelerometer for seven consecutive days. To examine age-related trends students were grouped as follows: Group I: grades 1-3 (N = 92); Group II: grades 4-6 (N = 98); Group III: grades 7-9 (N = 97); Group IV: grades 10-12 (N = 94). Average daily time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was calculated from minute-by-minute activity counts using the regression equation developed by Freedson et al. (1997). Results Compared with adolescents in grades 7 to 12, children in grades 1 to 6 exhibited less day-to-day variability in MVPA behavior. Spearman-Brown analysts indicated that between 4 and 5 d of monitoring would be necessary to a achieve a reliability of 0.80 in children, and between 8 and 9 d of monitoring would be necessary to achieve a reliability of 0.80 in adolescents. Within all grade levels, the 7-d monitoring protocol produced acceptable estimates of daily participation in MVPA (R = 0.76 (0.71-0.81) to 0.87 (0.84-0.90)). Compared with weekdays, children exhibited significantly higher levels of MVPA on weekends, whereas adolescents exhibited significantly lower levels of MVPA on weekends. Principal components analysis revealed two distinct time components for MVPA during the day for children (early morning, rest of the day), and three distinct time components for MVPA during the day for adolescents (morning, afternoon, early evening). Conclusions These results indicate that a 7-d monitoring protocol provides reliable estimates of usual physical activity behavior in children and adolescents and accounts for potentially important differences in weekend versus weekday activity behavior as well as differences in activity patterns within a given day.

Validity of the computer science and applications (CSA) activity monitor in children

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of the CSA activity monitor as a measure of children's physical activity using energy expenditure (EE) as a criterion measure. Methods Thirty subjects aged 10 to 14 performed three 5-min treadmill bouts at 3, 4, and 6 mph, respectively. While on the treadmill, subjects wore CSA (WAM 7164) activity monitors on the right and left hips. (V) over dot O-2 was monitored continuously by an automated system. EE was determined by multiplying the average (V) over dot O-2 by the caloric equivalent of the mean respiratory exchange ratio. Results Repeated measures ANOVA indicated that both CSA monitors were sensitive to changes in treadmill speed. Mean activity counts from each CSA unit were not significantly different and the intraclass reliability coefficient for the two CSA units across all speeds was 0.87. Activity counts from both CSA units were strongly correlated with EE (r = 0.86 and 0.87, P < 0.001). An EE prediction equation was developed from 20 randomly selected subjects and cross-validated on the remaining 10. The equation predicted mean EE within 0.01 kcal.min(-1). The correlation between actual and predicted values was 0.93 (P < 0.01) and the SEE was 0.93 kcal.min(-1). Conclusion These data indicate that the CSA monitor is a valid and reliable tool for quantifying treadmill walking and running in children.

Myogel supports the ex-vivo amplification of corneal epithelial cells

Limbal stem cell deficiency leads to conjunctivalisation of the cornea and subsequent loss of vision. The recent development of transplantation of ex-vivo amplified corneal epithelium, derived from limbal stem cells, has shown promise in treating this challenging condition. The purpose of this research was to compare a variety of cell sheet carriers for their suitability in creating a confluent corneal epithelium from amplified limbal stem cells. Cadaveric donor limbal cells were cultured using an explant technique, free of 3T3 feeder cells, on a variety of cell sheet carriers, including denuded amniotic membrane, Matrigel, Myogel and stromal extract. Comparisons in rate of growth and degree of differentiation were made, using immunocytochemistry (CK3, CK19 and ABCG2). The most rapid growth was observed on Myogel and denuded amniotic membrane, these two cell carriers also provided the most reliable substrata for achieving confluence. The putative limbal stem cell marker, ABCG2, stained positively on cells grown over Myogel and Matrigel but not for those propagated on denuded amniotic membrane. In the clinical setting amniotic membrane has been demonstrated to provide a suitable carrier for limbal stem cells and the resultant epithelium has been shown to be successful in treating limbal stem cell deficiency. Myogel may provide an alternative cell carrier with a further reduction in risk as it is has the potential to be derived from an autologous muscle biopsy in the clinical setting.

Improving safety for driverless city vehicles : real-time communication and decision making

This paper elaborates on the Cybercars-2 Wireless Communication Framework for driverless city vehicles, which is used for Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communication. The developed framework improves the safety and efficiency of driverless city vehicles. Furthermore, this paper also elaborates on the vehicle control software architecture. On-road tests of both the communication framework and its application for real-time decision making show that the communication framework is reliable and useful for improving the safe operation of driverless city vehicles.

Design of a robust grid interface system for PMSG-based wind turbine generators

A robust and reliable grid power interface system for wind turbines using a permanent-magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) is proposed in this paper, where an integration of a generator-side three-switch buck-type rectifier and a grid-side Z-source inverter is employed as a bridge between the generator and the grid. The modulation strategy for the proposed topology is developed from space-vector modulation and Z-source network operation principles. Two PMSG control methods, namely, unity-power-factor control and rotor-flux-orientation control (Id = 0), are studied to establish an optimized control scheme for the generator-side three-switch buck-type rectifier. The system control scheme decouples active- and reactive-power control through voltage-oriented control and optimizes PMSG control for the grid- and generator-side converters independently. Maximum power point tracking is implemented by adjusting the shoot-through duty cycles of the Z-source network. The design considerations of the passive components are also provided. The performances and practicalities of the designed architecture have been verified by simulations and experiments.

Towards increased road safety : real-time decision making for driverless city vehicles

This work elaborates on the topic of decision making for driverless city vehicles, particularly focusing on the aspects on how to develop a reliable approach which meets the requirements of safe city traffic. Decision making in this context refers to the problem of identifying the most appropriate driving maneuver to be performed in a given traffic situation. The overall decision making problem is decomposed into two consecutive stages. The first stage is safety-crucial, representing the decision regarding the set of feasible driving maneuvers. The second stage represents the decision regarding the most appropriate driving maneuver from the set of feasible ones. The developed decision making approach has been implemented in C++ and initially tested in a 3D simulation environment and, thereafter, in real-world experiments. The real-world experiments also included the integration of wireless communication between vehicles.

Ambiguity Acceptance Testing : A Comparison of the Ratio Test and Difference Test

Integer ambiguity resolution is an indispensable procedure for all high precision GNSS applications. The correctness of the estimated integer ambiguities is the key to achieving highly reliable positioning, but the solution cannot be validated with classical hypothesis testing methods. The integer aperture estimation theory unifies all existing ambiguity validation tests and provides a new prospective to review existing methods, which enables us to have a better understanding on the ambiguity validation problem. This contribution analyses two simple but efficient ambiguity validation test methods, ratio test and difference test, from three aspects: acceptance region, probability basis and numerical results. The major contribution of this paper can be summarized as: (1) The ratio test acceptance region is overlap of ellipsoids while the difference test acceptance region is overlap of half-spaces. (2) The probability basis of these two popular tests is firstly analyzed. The difference test is an approximation to optimal integer aperture, while the ratio test follows an exponential relationship in probability. (3) The limitations of the two tests are firstly identified. The two tests may under-evaluate the failure risk if the model is not strong enough or the float ambiguities fall in particular region. (4) Extensive numerical results are used to compare the performance of these two tests. The simulation results show the ratio test outperforms the difference test in some models while difference test performs better in other models. Particularly in the medium baseline kinematic model, the difference tests outperforms the ratio test, the superiority is independent on frequency number, observation noise, satellite geometry, while it depends on success rate and failure rate tolerance. Smaller failure rate leads to larger performance discrepancy.

Assessment of antibiotic use in children by their parents in Saudi Arabia

This project assessed the factors influencing the parents' use of antibiotics in children in Saudi Arabia. It was conducted through the development and validation of the Parental Perceptions on Antibiotics (PAPA) Scales, which is the first valid and reliable instrument directed to measure these factors on a population-based level. This is also the first population-based study that measures the patterns of antibiotic use in children in Saudi Arabia, where a very high association was found between the use of antibiotics and the number of cold episodes a year, which suggests a potential of overuse of antibiotics in Saudi Arabia. Also, it was found that antibiotic use decreases significantly with parents having higher scores in knowledge and beleifs, behaviors, and eagerness to seek health-related information.

Taxonomic resolution and quantification of freshwater macroinvertebrate samples from an Australian dryland river : The benefits and costs of using species abundance data

In studies using macroinvertebrates as indicators for monitoring rivers and streams, species level identifications in comparison with lower resolution identifications can have greater information content and result in more reliable site classifications and better capacity to discriminate between sites, yet many such programmes identify specimens to the resolution of family rather than species. This is often because it is cheaper to obtain family level data than species level data. Choice of appropriate taxonomic resolution is a compromise between the cost of obtaining data at high taxonomic resolutions and the loss of information at lower resolutions. Optimum taxonomic resolution should be determined by the information required to address programme objectives. Costs saved in identifying macroinvertebrates to family level may not be justified if family level data can not give the answers required and expending the extra cost to obtain species level data may not be warranted if cheaper family level data retains sufficient information to meet objectives. We investigated the influence of taxonomic resolution and sample quantification (abundance vs. presence/absence) on the representation of aquatic macroinvertebrate species assemblage patterns and species richness estimates. The study was conducted in a physically harsh dryland river system (Condamine-Balonne River system, located in south-western Queensland, Australia), characterised by low macroinvertebrate diversity. Our 29 study sites covered a wide geographic range and a diversity of lotic conditions and this was reflected by differences between sites in macroinvertebrate assemblage composition and richness. The usefulness of expending the extra cost necessary to identify macroinvertebrates to species was quantified via the benefits this higher resolution data offered in its capacity to discriminate between sites and give accurate estimates of site species richness. We found that very little information (<6%) was lost by identifying taxa to family (or genus), as opposed to species, and that quantifying the abundance of taxa provided greater resolution for pattern interpretation than simply noting their presence/absence. Species richness was very well represented by genus, family and order richness, so that each of these could be used as surrogates of species richness if, for example, surveying to identify diversity hot-spots. It is suggested that sharing of common ecological responses among species within higher taxonomic units is the most plausible mechanism for the results. Based on a cost/benefit analysis, family level abundance data is recommended as the best resolution for resolving patterns in macroinvertebrate assemblages in this system. The relevance of these findings are discussed in the context of other low diversity, harsh, dryland river systems.

The feeding practices and structure questionnaire : construction and initial validation in a sample of Australian first-time mothers and their 2-year olds

Background Early feeding practices lay the foundation for children’s eating habits and weight gain. Questionnaires are available to assess parental feeding but overlapping and inconsistent items, subscales and terminology limit conceptual clarity and between study comparisons. Our aim was to consolidate a range of existing items into a parsimonious and conceptually robust questionnaire for assessing feeding practices with very young children (<3 years). Methods Data were from 462 mothers and children (age 21–27 months) from the NOURISH trial. Items from five questionnaires and two study-specific items were submitted to a priori item selection, allocation and verification, before theoretically-derived factors were tested using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Construct validity of the new factors was examined by correlating these with child eating behaviours and weight. Results Following expert review 10 factors were specified. Of these, 9 factors (40 items) showed acceptable model fit and internal reliability (Cronbach’s α: 0.61-0.89). Four factors reflected non-responsive feeding practices: ‘Distrust in Appetite’, ‘Reward for Behaviour’, ‘Reward for Eating’, and ‘Persuasive Feeding’. Five factors reflected structure of the meal environment and limits: ‘Structured Meal Setting’, ‘Structured Meal Timing’, ‘Family Meal Setting’, ‘Overt Restriction’ and ‘Covert Restriction’. Feeding practices generally showed the expected pattern of associations with child eating behaviours but none with weight. Conclusion The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) provides a new reliable and valid measure of parental feeding practices, specifically maternal responsiveness to children’s hunger/satiety signals facilitated by routine and structure in feeding. Further validation in more diverse samples is required.

The effect of procurement on competition and flexibility : determining the suitability of public-private partnerships in major infrastructure projects

A procurement decision-making model is developed based on a novel integration of leading-edge microeconomic theory and empirically tested in major road and health projects. The model provides a more reliable approach to identifying projects suited to Public-Private-Partnerships (PPPs) and it is expected that the model will enable government to deliver improved value-for-money from their portfolio of PPP projects.

The application of luminance mapping to discomfort glare : a modified glare index for green buildings

Unfortunately, there is no reliable method to adequately quantify discomfort glare. One of the world's largest investigations on discomfort glare was conducted in five Green Star office buildings in Brisbane. Luminance mapping via high dynamic range images and Post Occupancy Evaluation surveys were used in the data collection. A new glare index, termed the Unified Glare Probability, was developed to predict discomfort glare within these types of office buildings.

Improving combustion stability in sugar factory boilers

Reliable operation of a sugar factory boiler station is essential for efficient and timely processing of the cane supply. Sugar factory boilers have to contend with changes in fuel quality caused by variations in performance of the extraction station, different cane varieties and associated agronomic factors along with fluctuations in factory steam demand. These variations can affect the stability of combustion in boiler furnaces leading to reductions in boiler steam output and large furnace pressure fluctuations that can cause serious damage. This paper investigates the causes of unstable combustion, discusses aspects of boiler design that make a boiler more susceptible to unstable combustion and uses modelling to evaluate different options for improving combustion stability.