Integrating nitrogen fluxes at the European scale

Executive summary Nature of the problem • Environmental problems related to nitrogen concern all economic sectors and impact all media: atmosphere, pedosphere, hydrosphere and anthroposphere. • Therefore, the integration of fluxes allows an overall coverage of problems related to reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the environment, which is not accessible from sectoral approaches or by focusing on specific media. Approaches • This chapter presents a set of high resolution maps showing key elements of the N flux budget across Europe, including N2 and Nr fluxes. • Comparative nitrogen budgets are also presented for a range of European countries, highlighting the most efficient strategies for mitigating Nr problems at a national scale. A new European Nitrogen Budget (EU-27) is presented on the basis of state-of-the-art Europe-wide models and databases focusing on different segments of Europe’s society. Key findings • From c. 18 Tg Nr yr −1 input to agriculture in the EU-27, only about 7 Tg Nr yr− 1 find their way to the consumer or are further processed by industry. • Some 3.7 Tg Nr yr−1 is released by the burning of fossil fuels in the EU-27, whereby the contribution of the industry and energy sectors is equal to that of the transport sector. More than 8 Tg Nr yr−1 are disposed of to the hydrosphere, while the EU-27 is a net exporter of reactive nitrogen through atmospheric transport of c. 2.3 Tg Nr yr−1. • The largest single sink for Nr appears to be denitrifi cation to N2 in European coastal shelf regions (potentially as large as the input of mineral fertilizer, about 11 Tg N yr–1 for the EU-27); however, this sink is also the most uncertain, because of the uncertainty of Nr import from the open ocean. Major uncertainties • National nitrogen budgets are diffi cult to compile using a large range of data sources and are currently available only for a limited number of countries. • Modelling approaches have been used to fill in the data gaps in some of these budgets, but it became obvious during this study that further research is needed in order to collect necessary data and make national nitrogen budgets inter-comparable across Europe. • In some countries, due to inconsistent or contradictory information coming from different data sources, closure of the nitrogen budget was not possible. Recommendations • The large variety of problems associated with the excess of Nr in the European environment,including adverse impacts, requires an integrated nitrogen management approach that would allow for creation and closure of N budgets within European environments. • Development of nitrogen budgets nationwide, their assessment and management could become an effective tool to prioritize measures and prevent unwanted side effects.

The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport

This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050.The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented.

Performance as social practice

Starting point for these outputs is a large scale research project in collaboration with the Zurich University for the Arts and the Kunstmuseum Thun, looking at a redefinition of Social Sculpture (Joseph Beuys/ Bazon Brock, 1970) as a functional device re-deployed to expand the art discourse into a societal discourse. Although Beuys‘ version of a social sculpture involved notions of abstruse mysticism and reformulations of a national identity these were never-the less part of a social transformation that shifted and re-arranged power relations. Following Laclau and Mouffe in their contention that democray is a fundamentally antagonistic process and contesting Grant Kester’s understanding of a ethically based relational practice, this work is alignes itself with Hirschhorn’s claim to an aesthetic practice within communities, following the possibility to view a socially based practice from both ends of the ethics debate, whereby ethical aspects fuels the aethetic to “create situations that are beautiful because they are ethical and shocking because they are ethical, thus in turn aesthetic because they are ethical” (O’Donnell). This project sets out to engage in activities which interact with surrounding communities and evoce new imaginations of site, thereby understanding site as a catalysts for subjective emergences. Performance is tested as a site for social practice. Archival research into local audio/visual resources, such as the Swiss Radio Archive, the Swiss Military Film Archives and zoological film archives of the Basel Zoo, was instrumental to the navigation of this work, under theme of crisis, catastrophy, landscape, fallout, in order to create a visual language for an active performance site. Commissioned by the Kunstmuseum Thun in collaboration with the University for the Arts in Zurich as part of a year long exhibition programme, (other artists are Jeanne Van Heeswijk (NL) and San Keller (CH), ) this project brings together a series of different works in a new performace installation. The performance process includes a performance workshop with 30 school children from local Swiss schools and their teachers, which was conducted publicly in the museum spaces. It enabled the children to engage with an unexpected set of tribal and animalistic behaviours, looking at situations of flight and rescue, resulting in a large performance choreography orchestration without an apparent conductor, it includes a collaboration with renowned Swiss zoologist, Prof Klaus Zuberbühler(University of St Andrews) and the Colonal General Haldimann commander of the military base in Thun. The installation included 2 static video images, shot in an around spectacular local cave site (Beatus Caves) including 3 children. The project will culminate in an edited edition of the Oncurating Journal, (issue no, tbc, in 2012) including interviews and essays from project collaborators. (Army Commander General, Thun, Jörg Hess, performance script, Timothy Long, and others)

Design and management of sustainable built environments

The United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that climate change is due to human activities and it recognises buildings as a distinct sector among the seven analysed in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. Global concerns have escalated regarding carbon emissions and sustainability in the built environment. The built environment is a human-made setting to accommodate human activities, including building and transport, which covers an interdisciplinary field addressing design, construction, operation and management. Specifically, Sustainable Buildings are expected to achieve high performance throughout the life-cycle of siting, design, construction, operation, maintenance and demolition, in the following areas: • energy and resource efficiency; • cost effectiveness; • minimisation of emissions that negatively impact global warming, indoor air quality and acid rain; • minimisation of waste discharges; and • maximisation of fulfilling the requirements of occupants’ health and wellbeing. Professionals in the built environment sector, for example, urban planners, architects, building scientists, engineers, facilities managers, performance assessors and policy makers, will play a significant role in delivering a sustainable built environment. Delivering a sustainable built environment needs an integrated approach and so it is essential for built environment professionals to have interdisciplinary knowledge in building design and management . Building and urban designers need to have a good understanding of the planning, design and management of the buildings in terms of low carbon and energy efficiency. There are a limited number of traditional engineers who know how to design environmental systems (services engineer) in great detail. Yet there is a very large market for technologists with multi-disciplinary skills who are able to identify the need for, envision and manage the deployment of a wide range of sustainable technologies, both passive (architectural) and active (engineering system),, and select the appropriate approach. Employers seek applicants with skills in analysis, decision-making/assessment, computer simulation and project implementation. An integrated approach is expected in practice, which encourages built environment professionals to think ‘out of the box’ and learn to analyse real problems using the most relevant approach, irrespective of discipline. The Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environment book aims to produce readers able to apply fundamental scientific research to solve real-world problems in the general area of sustainability in the built environment. The book contains twenty chapters covering climate change and sustainability, urban design and assessment (planning, travel systems, urban environment), urban management (drainage and waste), buildings (indoor environment, architectural design and renewable energy), simulation techniques (energy and airflow), management (end-user behaviour, facilities and information), assessment (materials and tools), procurement, and cases studies ( BRE Science Park). Chapters one and two present general global issues of climate change and sustainability in the built environment. Chapter one illustrates that applying the concepts of sustainability to the urban environment (buildings, infrastructure, transport) raises some key issues for tackling climate change, resource depletion and energy supply. Buildings, and the way we operate them, play a vital role in tackling global greenhouse gas emissions. Holistic thinking and an integrated approach in delivering a sustainable built environment is highlighted. Chapter two demonstrates the important role that buildings (their services and appliances) and building energy policies play in this area. Substantial investment is required to implement such policies, much of which will earn a good return. Chapters three and four discuss urban planning and transport. Chapter three stresses the importance of using modelling techniques at the early stage for strategic master-planning of a new development and a retrofit programme. A general framework for sustainable urban-scale master planning is introduced. This chapter also addressed the needs for the development of a more holistic and pragmatic view of how the built environment performs, , in order to produce tools to help design for a higher level of sustainability and, in particular, how people plan, design and use it. Chapter four discusses microcirculation, which is an emerging and challenging area which relates to changing travel behaviour in the quest for urban sustainability. The chapter outlines the main drivers for travel behaviour and choices, the workings of the transport system and its interaction with urban land use. It also covers the new approach to managing urban traffic to maximise economic, social and environmental benefits. Chapters five and six present topics related to urban microclimates including thermal and acoustic issues. Chapter five discusses urban microclimates and urban heat island, as well as the interrelationship of urban design (urban forms and textures) with energy consumption and urban thermal comfort. It introduces models that can be used to analyse microclimates for a careful and considered approach for planning sustainable cities. Chapter six discusses urban acoustics, focusing on urban noise evaluation and mitigation. Various prediction and simulation methods for sound propagation in micro-scale urban areas, as well as techniques for large scale urban noise-mapping, are presented. Chapters seven and eight discuss urban drainage and waste management. The growing demand for housing and commercial developments in the 21st century, as well as the environmental pressure caused by climate change, has increased the focus on sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). Chapter seven discusses the SUDS concept which is an integrated approach to surface water management. It takes into consideration quality, quantity and amenity aspects to provide a more pleasant habitat for people as well as increasing the biodiversity value of the local environment. Chapter eight discusses the main issues in urban waste management. It points out that population increases, land use pressures, technical and socio-economic influences have become inextricably interwoven and how ensuring a safe means of dealing with humanity’s waste becomes more challenging. Sustainable building design needs to consider healthy indoor environments, minimising energy for heating, cooling and lighting, and maximising the utilisation of renewable energy. Chapter nine considers how people respond to the physical environment and how that is used in the design of indoor environments. It considers environmental components such as thermal, acoustic, visual, air quality and vibration and their interaction and integration. Chapter ten introduces the concept of passive building design and its relevant strategies, including passive solar heating, shading, natural ventilation, daylighting and thermal mass, in order to minimise heating and cooling load as well as energy consumption for artificial lighting. Chapter eleven discusses the growing importance of integrating Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) into buildings, the range of technologies currently available and what to consider during technology selection processes in order to minimise carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels. The chapter draws to a close by highlighting the issues concerning system design and the need for careful integration and management of RETs once installed; and for home owners and operators to understand the characteristics of the technology in their building. Computer simulation tools play a significant role in sustainable building design because, as the modern built environment design (building and systems) becomes more complex, it requires tools to assist in the design process. Chapter twelve gives an overview of the primary benefits and users of simulation programs, the role of simulation in the construction process and examines the validity and interpretation of simulation results. Chapter thirteen particularly focuses on the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation method used for optimisation and performance assessment of technologies and solutions for sustainable building design and its application through a series of cases studies. People and building performance are intimately linked. A better understanding of occupants’ interaction with the indoor environment is essential to building energy and facilities management. Chapter fourteen focuses on the issue of occupant behaviour; principally, its impact, and the influence of building performance on them. Chapter fifteen explores the discipline of facilities management and the contribution that this emerging profession makes to securing sustainable building performance. The chapter highlights a much greater diversity of opportunities in sustainable building design that extends well into the operational life. Chapter sixteen reviews the concepts of modelling information flows and the use of Building Information Modelling (BIM), describing these techniques and how these aspects of information management can help drive sustainability. An explanation is offered concerning why information management is the key to ‘life-cycle’ thinking in sustainable building and construction. Measurement of building performance and sustainability is a key issue in delivering a sustainable built environment. Chapter seventeen identifies the means by which construction materials can be evaluated with respect to their sustainability. It identifies the key issues that impact the sustainability of construction materials and the methodologies commonly used to assess them. Chapter eighteen focuses on the topics of green building assessment, green building materials, sustainable construction and operation. Commonly-used assessment tools such as BRE Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM), Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design ( LEED) and others are introduced. Chapter nineteen discusses sustainable procurement which is one of the areas to have naturally emerged from the overall sustainable development agenda. It aims to ensure that current use of resources does not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Chapter twenty is a best-practice exemplar - the BRE Innovation Park which features a number of demonstration buildings that have been built to the UK Government’s Code for Sustainable Homes. It showcases the very latest innovative methods of construction, and cutting edge technology for sustainable buildings. In summary, Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environment book is the result of co-operation and dedication of individual chapter authors. We hope readers benefit from gaining a broad interdisciplinary knowledge of design and management in the built environment in the context of sustainability. We believe that the knowledge and insights of our academics and professional colleagues from different institutions and disciplines illuminate a way of delivering sustainable built environment through holistic integrated design and management approaches. Last, but not least, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all the chapter authors for their contribution. I would like to thank David Lim for his assistance in the editorial work and proofreading.

Tree species diversity interacts with elevated CO2 to induce a greater root system response

As a consequence of land use change and the burning of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing and altering the dynamics of the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems. In a number of studies using single tree species, fine root biomass has been shown to be strongly increased by elevated CO2. However, natural forests are often intimate mixtures of a number of co-occurring species. To investigate the interaction between tree mixture and elevated CO2, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula and Fagus sylvatica were planted in areas of single species and a three species polyculture in a free-air CO2 enrichment study (BangorFACE). The trees were exposed to ambient or elevated CO2 (580 µmol mol-1) for four years. Fine and coarse root biomass, together with fine root turnover and fine root morphological characteristics were measured. Fine root biomass, and morphology responded differentially to elevated CO2 at different soil depths in the three species when grown in monocultures. In polyculture, a greater response to elevated CO2 was observed in coarse roots to a depth of 20 cm, and fine root area index to a depth of 30 cm. Total fine root biomass was positively affected by elevated CO2 at the end of the experiment, but not by species diversity. Our data suggest that existing biogeochemical cycling models parameterised with data from species grown in monoculture may be underestimating the belowground response to global change.

Estimation of the friction velocity in stably stratified boundary-layer flows over hills

A method is suggested for the calculation of the friction velocity for stable turbulent boundary-layer flow over hills. The method is tested using a continuous upstream mean velocity profile compatible with the propagation of gravity waves, and is incorporated into the linear model of Hunt, Leibovich and Richards with the modification proposed by Hunt, Richards and Brighton to include the effects of stability, and the reformulated solution of Weng for the near-surface region. Those theoretical results are compared with results from simulations using a non-hydrostatic microscale-mesoscale two-dimensional numerical model, and with field observations for different values of stability. These comparisons show a considerable improvement in the behaviour of the theoretical model when the friction velocity is calculated using the method proposed here, leading to a consistent variation of the boundary-layer structure with stability, and better agreement with observational and numerical data.

Noise propagation from a cutting of arbitrary cross-section and impedance

A boundary integral equation is described for the prediction of acoustic propagation from a monofrequency coherent line source in a cutting with impedance boundary conditions onto surrounding flat impedance ground. The problem is stated as a boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation and is subsequently reformulated as a system of boundary integral equations via Green's theorem. It is shown that the integral equation formulation has a unique solution at all wavenumbers. The numerical solution of the coupled boundary integral equations by a simple boundary element method is then described. The convergence of the numerical scheme is demonstrated experimentally. Predictions of A-weighted excess attenuation for a traffic noise spectrum are made illustrating the effects of varying the depth of the cutting and the absorbency of the surrounding ground surface.

Scattering of electromagnetic waves by rough interfaces and inhomogeneous layers

We consider a two-dimensional problem of scattering of a time-harmonic electromagnetic plane wave by an infinite inhomogeneous conducting or dielectric layer at the interface between semi-infinite homogeneous dielectric half-spaces. The magnetic permeability is assumed to be a fixed positive constant. The material properties of the media are characterized completely by an index of refraction, which is a bounded measurable function in the layer and takes positive constant values above and below the layer, corresponding to the homogeneous dielectric media. In this paper, we examine only the transverse magnetic (TM) polarization case. A radiation condition appropriate for scattering by infinite rough surfaces is introduced, a generalization of the Rayleigh expansion condition for diffraction gratings. With the help of the radiation condition the problem is reformulated as an equivalent mixed system of boundary and domain integral equations, consisting of second-kind integral equations over the layer and interfaces within the layer. Assumptions on the variation of the index of refraction in the layer are then imposed which prove to be sufficient, together with the radiation condition, to prove uniqueness of solution and nonexistence of guided wave modes. Recent, general results on the solvability of systems of second kind integral equations on unbounded domains establish existence of solution and continuous dependence in a weighted norm of the solution on the given data. The results obtained apply to the case of scattering by a rough interface between two dielectric media and to many other practical configurations.

Acoustic scattering by an inhomogeneous layer on a rigid plate

The problem of scattering of time-harmonic acoustic waves by an inhomogeneous fluid layer on a rigid plate in R2 is considered. The density is assumed to be unity in the media: within the layer the sound speed is assumed to be an arbitrary bounded measurable function. The problem is modelled by the reduced wave equation with variable wavenumber in the layer and a Neumann condition on the plate. To formulate the problem and prove uniqueness of solution a radiation condition appropriate for scattering by infinite rough surfaces is introduced, a generalization of the Rayleigh expansion condition for diffraction gratings. With the help of the radiation condition the problem is reformulated as a system of two second kind integral equations over the layer and the plate. Under additional assumptions on the wavenumber in the layer, uniqueness of solution is proved and the nonexistence of guided wave solutions of the homogeneous problem established. General results on the solvability of systems of integral equations on unbounded domains are used to establish existence and continuous dependence in a weighted norm of the solution on the given data.

On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first to demonstrate that the Earth’s land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. This short note marks the 75th anniversary of Callendar’s landmark study and demonstrates that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.

Improving EU biofuels policy? Greenhouse gas emissions, policy efficiency, and WTO compatibility

Both the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Article 7a of its Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) seek to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport fuels. The RED mandates a 10% share of renewable energy in transport fuels by 2020, whilst the FQD requires a 6% reduction in GHG emissions (from a 2010 base) by the same date. In practice, it will mainly be biofuels that economic operators will use to meet these requirements, but the different approaches can lead to either the RED, or the FQD, acting as the binding constraint. A common set of environmental sustainability criteria apply to biofuels under both the RED and the FQD. In particular, biofuels have to demonstrate a 35% (later increasing to 50/60%) saving in life-cycle GHG emissions. This could be problematic in the World Trade Organization (WTO), as a non-compliant biofuel with a 34% emissions saving would probably be judged to be ‘like’ a compliant biofuel. A more economically rational way to reduce GHG emissions, and one that might attract greater public support, would be for the RED to reward emission reductions along the lines of the FQD. Moreover, this modification would probably make the provisions more acceptable in the WTO, as there would be a clearer link between policy measures and the objective of reductions in GHG emissions; and the combination of the revised RED and the FQD would lessen the commercial incentive to import biofuels with modest GHG emission savings, and thus reduce the risk of trade tension.

Urban climates and global climate change

Cities and global climate change are closely linked: cities are where the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions take place through the consumption of fossil fuels; they are where an increasing proportion of the world’s people live; and they also generate their own climate – commonly characterized by the urban heat island. In this way, understanding the way cities affect the cycling of energy, water, and carbon to create an urban climate is a key element of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, especially in the context of rising global temperatures and deteriorating air quality in many cities. As climate models resolve finer spatial-scales, they will need to represent those areas in which more than 50% of the world’s population already live to provide climate projections that are of greater use to planning and decision-making. Finally, many of the processes that are instrumental in determining urban climate are the same factors leading to global anthropogenic climate change, namely regional-scale land-use changes; increased energy use; and increased emissions of climatically-relevant atmospheric constituents. Cities are therefore both a case study for understanding, and an agent in mitigating, anthropogenic climate change. This chapter reviews and summarizes the current state of understanding of the physical basis of urban climates, as well as our ability to represent these in models. We argue that addressing the challenges of managing urban environments in a changing climate requires understanding the energy, water, and carbon balances for an urban landscape and, importantly, their interactions and feedbacks, together with their links to human behaviour and controls. We conclude with some suggestions for where further research is needed.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Sensory profiles and consumer acceptability of a range of sugar-reduced products on the UK market

Current UK intake of non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) is above recommendations. Reducing the sugar content of processed high sugar foods through reformulation is one option for reducing consumption of NMES at a population level. However, reformulation can alter the sensory attributes of food products and influence consumer liking. This study evaluated consumer acceptance of a selection of products that are commercially-available in the UK; these included regular and sugar-reduced baked beans, strawberry jam, milk chocolate, cola and cranberry & raspberry juice. Sweeteners were present in the reformulated chocolate (maltitol), cola (aspartame and acesulfame-K) and juice (sucralose) samples. Healthy, non-smoking consumers (n = 116; 55 men, 61 women, age: 33 ± 9 years; BMI: 25.7 ± 4.6 kg/m2) rated the products for overall liking and on liking of appearance, flavor and texture using a nine-point hedonic scale. There were significant differences between standard and reduced sugar products in consumers’ overall liking and on liking of each modality (appearance, flavor and texture; all P < 0.0001). For overall liking, only the regular beans and cola were significantly more liked than their reformulated counterparts (P < 0.0001). Cluster analysis identified three consumer clusters that were representative of different patterns of consumer liking. For the largest cluster (cluster 3: 45%), there was a significant difference in mean liking scores across all products, except jam. Differences in liking were predominantly driven by sweet taste in 2 out of 3 clusters. The current research has demonstrated that a high proportion of consumers prefer conventional products over sugar-reduced products across a wide range of product types (45%) or across selected products (27%), when tasted unbranded, and so there is room for further optimization of commercial reduced sugar products that were evaluated in the current study. Future work should evaluate strategies to facilitate compliance to dietary recommendations on NMES and free sugars, such as the impact of sugar-reduced food exposure on their acceptance.