890 resultados para profit forecasts
Resumo:
This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.
Resumo:
This paper introduces PartSS, a new partition-based fil- tering for tasks performing string comparisons under edit distance constraints. PartSS offers improvements over the state-of-the-art method NGPP with the implementation of a new partitioning scheme and also improves filtering abil- ities by exploiting theoretical results on shifting and scaling ranges, thus accelerating the rate of calculating edit distance between strings. PartSS filtering has been implemented within two major tasks of data integration: similarity join and approximate membership extraction under edit distance constraints. The evaluation on an extensive range of real-world datasets demonstrates major gain in efficiency over NGPP and QGrams approaches.
Resumo:
‘Social innovation’ is a construct increasingly used to explain the practices, processes and actors through which sustained positive transformation occurs in the network society (Mulgan, G., Tucker, S., Ali, R., Sander, B. (2007). Social innovation: What it is, why it matters and how can it be accelerated. Oxford:Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship; Phills, J. A., Deiglmeier, K., & Miller, D. T. Stanford Social Innovation Review, 6(4):34–43, 2008.). Social innovation has been defined as a “novel solution to a social problem that is more effective, efficient, sustainable, or just than existing solutions, and for which the value created accrues primarily to society as a whole rather than private individuals.” (Phills,J. A., Deiglmeier, K., & Miller, D. T. Stanford Social Innovation Review, 6 (4):34–43, 2008: 34.) Emergent ideas of social innovation challenge some traditional understandings of the nature and role of the Third Sector, as well as shining a light on those enterprises within the social economy that configure resources in novel ways. In this context, social enterprises – which provide a social or community benefit and trade to fulfil their mission – have attracted considerable policy attention as one source of social innovation within a wider field of action (see Leadbeater, C. (2007). ‘Social enterprise and social innovation: Strategies for the next 10 years’, Cabinet office,Office of the third sector http://www.charlesleadbeater.net/cms xstandard/social_enterprise_innovation.pdf. Last accessed 19/5/2011.). And yet, while social enterprise seems to have gained some symbolic traction in society, there is to date relatively limited evidence of its real world impacts.(Dart, R. Not for Profit Management and Leadership, 14(4):411–424, 2004.) In other words, we do not know much about the social innovation capabilities and effects of social enterprise. In this chapter, we consider the social innovation practices of social enterprise, drawing on Mulgan, G., Tucker, S., Ali, R., Sander, B. (2007). Social innovation: What it is, why it matters and how can it be accelerated. Oxford: Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship: 5) three dimensions of social innovation: new combinations or hybrids of existing elements; cutting across organisational, sectoral and disciplinary boundaries; and leaving behind compelling new relationships. Based on a detailed survey of 365 Australian social enterprises, we examine their self-reported business and mission-related innovations, the ways in which they configure and access resources and the practices through which they diffuse innovation in support of their mission. We then consider how these findings inform our understanding of the social innovation capabilities and effects of social enterprise,and their implications for public policy development.
Resumo:
Traditional approaches to teaching criminal law in Australian law schools include lectures that focus on the transmission of abstracted and decontextualised knowledge, with content often prioritised at the expense of depth. This paper discusses The Sapphire Vortex, a blended learning environment that combines a suite of on-line modules using Second Life machinima to depict a narrative involving a series of criminal offences and the ensuing courtroom proceedings, expert commentary by practising lawyers and class discussions.
Resumo:
Volunteering Qld’s Project Creatives continues to explore the critical role creative disciplines and creative people play in providing new models of engagement and action in social change and community work. This article explores three different non-profit organisations that have used collaborative photography to enable locals to empower themselves. Written by Alice Baroni a volunteer with the Education, Research and Policy Unit of Volunteering Qld. Alice is undertaking a PhD at the Queensland University of Technology, exploring (photo) journalism, participatory content creation and community photography in Brazil’s low income suburbs. She is part of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation, and a Brazilian research group ‘Storytellers and Narratives: Contemporary Journalism’. Two of the initiatives explored in this publication are Viva Favela and Imagens do Povo that are ideologically and physically supported by, respectively, Viva Rio and Observatório de Favelas, based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. ‘Favela’ is often translated simply as ‘slum’ or ‘shantytown’, but these terms connote negative characteristics such as shortage, poverty, and deprivation, which end up stigmatising these low-income suburbs. Fotografi Senza Frontiere (FSF) (Photographers Without Borders) is an Italian non-governmental organisation that gathers together a group of photographers who aim to provide youth from extreme regions in Nicaragua, Algeria, Argentina, Panama, Uganda, and Palestine with skills to photograph and document their own reality by establishing permanent photo laboratories. This idea, which is similar to that of Viva Favela and Imagens do Povo, is to enable youth to become professional photographers as a means of self-representation and self-empowerment. Afterwards, students become educators in established photographic labs so as to pass on what they have learnt through FSF’s photographic courses.
Resumo:
In order to drive sustainable financial profitability, service firms make significant investments in creating service environments that consumers will prefer over the environments of their competitors. To date, servicescape research is over-focused on understanding consumers’ emotional and physiological responses to servicescape attributes, rather than taking a holistic view of how consumers cognitively interpret servicescapes. This thesis argues that consumers will cognitively ascribe symbolic meanings to servicescapes and then evaluate if those meanings are congruent with their sense of Self in order to form a preference for a servicescape. Consequently, this thesis takes a Self Theory approach to servicescape symbolism to address the following broad research question: How do ascribed symbolic meanings influence servicescape preference? Using a three-study, mixed-method approach, this thesis investigates the symbolic meanings consumers ascribe to servicescapes and empirically tests whether the joint effects of congruence between consumer Self and the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes influence consumers’ servicescape preference. First, Study One identifies the symbolic meanings ascribed to salient servicescape attributes using a combination of repertory tests and laddering techniques within 19 semi-structured individual depth interviews. Study Two modifies an existing scale to create a symbolic servicescape meaning scale in order to measure the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes. Finally, Study Three utilises the Self-Congruity Model to empirically examine the joint effects of consumer Self and servicescape on consumers’ preference for servicescapes. Using polynomial regression with response surface analysis, 14 joint effect models demonstrate that both Self-Servicescape incongruity and congruity influence consumers’ preference for servicescapes. Combined, the findings of three studies suggest that the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes and their (in)congruities with consumers’ sense of self can be used to predict consumers’ preferences for servicescapes. These findings have several key theoretical and practical contributions to services marketing.
Resumo:
Student performance on examinations is influenced by the level of difficulty of the questions. It seems reasonable to propose therefore that assessment of the difficulty of exam questions could be used to gauge the level of skills and knowledge expected at the end of a course. This paper reports the results of a study investigating the difficulty of exam questions using a subjective assessment of difficulty and a purpose-built exam question complexity classification scheme. The scheme, devised for exams in introductory programming courses, assesses the complexity of each question using six measures: external domain references, explicitness, linguistic complexity, conceptual complexity, length of code involved in the question and/or answer, and intellectual complexity (Bloom level). We apply the scheme to 20 introductory programming exam papers from five countries, and find substantial variation across the exams for all measures. Most exams include a mix of questions of low, medium, and high difficulty, although seven of the 20 have no questions of high difficulty. All of the complexity measures correlate with assessment of difficulty, indicating that the difficulty of an exam question relates to each of these more specific measures. We discuss the implications of these findings for the development of measures to assess learning standards in programming courses.
A qualitative think aloud study of the early Neo-Piagetian stages of reasoning in novice programmers
Resumo:
Recent research indicates that some of the difficulties faced by novice programmers are manifested very early in their learning. In this paper, we present data from think aloud studies that demonstrate the nature of those difficulties. In the think alouds, novices were required to complete short programming tasks which involved either hand executing ("tracing") a short piece of code, or writing a single sentence describing the purpose of the code. We interpret our think aloud data within a neo-Piagetian framework, demonstrating that some novices reason at the sensorimotor and preoperational stages, not at the higher concrete operational stage at which most instruction is implicitly targeted.
Resumo:
A5/1 is a shift register based stream cipher which uses a majority clocking rule to update its registers. It is designed to provide privacy for the GSM system. In this paper, we analyse the initialisation process of A5/1. We demonstrate a sliding property of the A5/1 cipher, where every valid internal state is also a legitimate loaded state and multiple key-IV pairs produce phase shifted keystream sequences. We describe a possible ciphertext only attack based on this property.
Resumo:
Educators are faced with many challenging questions in designing an effective curriculum. What prerequisite knowledge do students have before commencing a new subject? At what level of mastery? What is the spread of capabilities between bare-passing students vs. the top performing group? How does the intended learning specification compare to student performance at the end of a subject? In this paper we present a conceptual model that helps in answering some of these questions. It has the following main capabilities: capturing the learning specification in terms of syllabus topics and outcomes; capturing mastery levels to model progression; capturing the minimal vs. aspirational learning design; capturing confidence and reliability metrics for each of these mappings; and finally, comparing and reflecting on the learning specification against actual student performance. We present a web-based implementation of the model, and validate it by mapping the final exams from four programming subjects against the ACM/IEEE CS2013 topics and outcomes, using Bloom's Taxonomy as the mastery scale. We then import the itemised exam grades from 632 students across the four subjects and compare the demonstrated student performance against the expected learning for each of these. Key contributions of this work are the validated conceptual model for capturing and comparing expected learning vs. demonstrated performance, and a web-based implementation of this model, which is made freely available online as a community resource.
Resumo:
Recent research has proposed Neo-Piagetian theory as a useful way of describing the cognitive development of novice programmers. Neo-Piagetian theory may also be a useful way to classify materials used in learning and assessment. If Neo-Piagetian coding of learning resources is to be useful then it is important that practitioners can learn it and apply it reliably. We describe the design of an interactive web-based tutorial for Neo-Piagetian categorization of assessment tasks. We also report an evaluation of the tutorial's effectiveness, in which twenty computer science educators participated. The average classification accuracy of the participants on each of the three Neo-Piagetian stages were 85%, 71% and 78%. Participants also rated their agreement with the expert classifications, and indicated high agreement (91%, 83% and 91% across the three Neo-Piagetian stages). Self-rated confidence in applying Neo-Piagetian theory to classifying programming questions before and after the tutorial were 29% and 75% respectively. Our key contribution is the demonstration of the feasibility of the Neo-Piagetian approach to classifying assessment materials, by demonstrating that it is learnable and can be applied reliably by a group of educators. Our tutorial is freely available as a community resource.
Resumo:
Efficient state asset management is crucial for governments as they facilitate the fulfillment of their public functions, which include the provision of essential services and other public administration support. In recent times economies internationally and particularly in South east Asia, have displayed increased recognition of the importance of efficiencies across state asset management law, policies and practice. This has been exemplified by a surge in notable instances of reform in state asset management. A prominent theme in this phenomenon is the consideration of governance principles within the re-conceptualization of state asset management law and related policy, with many countries recognizing variability in the quality of asset governance and opportunities for profit as being critical factors. This issue is very current in Indonesia where a major reform process in this area has been confirmed by the establishment of a new Directorate of State Asset Management. The incumbent Director-General of State Asset Management has confirmed a re-emphasis on adherence to governance principles within applicable state asset management law and policy reform. This paper reviews aspects of the challenge of reviewing and reforming Indonesian practice within state asset management law and policy specifically related to public housing, public buildings, parklands, and vacant land. A critical issue in beginning this review is how Indonesia currently conceptualizes the notion of asset governance and how this meaning is embodied in recent changes in law and policy and importantly in options for future change. This paper discusses the potential complexities uniquely Indonesian characteristics such as decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, political history, and bureaucratic culture.
Resumo:
In this paper, we describe a machine-translated parallel English corpus for the NTCIR Chinese, Japanese and Korean (CJK) Wikipedia collections. This document collection is named CJK2E Wikipedia XML corpus. The corpus could be used by the information retrieval research community and knowledge sharing in Wikipedia in many ways; for example, this corpus could be used for experimentations in cross-lingual information retrieval, cross-lingual link discovery, or omni-lingual information retrieval research. Furthermore, the translated CJK articles could be used to further expand the current coverage of the English Wikipedia.
Resumo:
We blend research from human-computer interface (HCI) design with computational based crypto- graphic provable security. We explore the notion of practice-oriented provable security (POPS), moving the focus to a higher level of abstraction (POPS+) for use in providing provable security for security ceremonies involving humans. In doing so we high- light some challenges and paradigm shifts required to achieve meaningful provable security for a protocol which includes a human. We move the focus of security ceremonies from being protocols in their context of use, to the protocols being cryptographic building blocks in a higher level protocol (the security cere- mony), which POPS can be applied to. In order to illustrate the need for our approach, we analyse both a protocol proven secure in theory, and a similar proto- col implemented by a �nancial institution, from both HCI and cryptographic perspectives.
Resumo:
Although digital technology has, in theory, made it possible for many more people to access content at no extra cost, fewer people than ever before are able to read the books written by university-based researchers. This article looks, very briefly, at the role that open access licenses might play in reviving the scholarly monograph: a specialised area of academic publishing that has seen sales decline by more than 90% over the past three decades. It also introduces a new approach to funding open-access scholarly books being pioneered by the not-for-profit social enterprise Knowledge Unlatched.