Cana-de-açúcar e álcool combustível: histórico, sustentabilidade e segurança energética

The cane sugar is important since the early days in the history of the country, following the discovery of Brazil since the colonial period, therefore, the culture has an important role in the Brazilian economy, being one of the main products. In the 1970s with the advent of the economic crisis, geopolitical and the possibility of depletion of oil, countries dependent on imported fuel, sought new energy alternatives. In Brazil, it was decreed in 1975 the creation of the National Alcohol Program - PROALCOOL, who had several years of rising, the increase of distilleries and marketing of cars powered with ethanol blend. Due to the decrease in the price of oil the importance of the program significantly reduced, returning to peak only in 1979, ie, the second phase of the program. Conceived as one of the vectors of the national response to the crisis in oil prices '70s, the program persisted at times rising in others not reaching for more than three decades. Brazil is the second largest ethanol producer, second only to the U.S., where the raw material comes from corn, which becomes a bottleneck biodiesel production because it competes with food production. New technologies developed to increase ethanol production combined with sustainability and economic viability are being held, the principal is the second generation ethanol, known as cellulosic ethanol, ethanol plus third and fourth generation.

Perdas na colheita mecanizada de algodão em variabilidade espacial e em função de velocidades de colheita

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

CAPTURE FISHERY IN NORTHERN TODOS OS SANTOS BAY, TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, BRAZIL

Information on marine and estuarine capture fishery activity in northern Todos os Santos Bay, northeastern Brazil, based on daily data collected between September 2003 and June 2005 is presented. Small-scale artisanal fishery in this area includes the use of traditional vessels both non-motorized and motorized for locomotion, being carried out mainly by canoe or on foot, and involves many different kinds of gear, including gillnet, hook and line, seine nets, and traps. A total of 113 taxa were grouped into 77 resources, including 88 fish, 10 crustaceans, and 15 mollusks. Data on nominal catches of fish, crustaceans and mollusks are presented by month and location. A total of 345.2 tonnes of fishery resources were produced (285.4 tonnes of fish, 39.2 tonnes of fresh invertebrates, and 20.6 tonnes of processed invertebrates). Temporal variation in the fish catch was associated with the life cycle of the species or with the hydrographic conditions. The first-sale value of this catch amounted to around US$ 615,000.00, fishes representing 71.3% of it. A table of the average price of each fishery resource is presented. The results produced in this study may be considered a reference for future monitoring programs of fishery resources in the area.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes in Brazil

Objectives. We investigated whether taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) would improve the diets of households in Brazil. Methods. We used household food consumption data that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics collected in 2002-2003 from a nationally representative sample of 48470 Brazilian households. The consumption of SSBs is expressed as the total SSB calories consumed and as the SSB percentage of the total calories purchased. We investigated price elasticity with regression models, controlling for demographic variables, income, and prices of all other foods and drinks. Results. Increases in the price of SSBs led to reductions in consumption. A 1.00% increase in the price of SSBs led to a 0.85% reduction of SSB calories consumed (1.03% reduction for the poor and 0.63% for the nonpoor). Increased income had a positive effect on SSB consumption, but the effect was less than half the size of the price elasticity (0.41% increase in SSB calories consumed for every 1.00% increase in income). Conclusions. High SSB price elasticity in Brazil indicates that a tax on purchased weight or volume would lead to reductions in SSB consumption. (Am J Public Health. 2012;102:178-183. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2011.300313)

Socio-economía de los recursos pesqueros de la isla de Gran Canaria

Máster en Gestión Sostenible de Recursos Pesqueros

Evolución de la pesquería artesanal de la isla de La Palma entre 1975 y 2010

Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Máster en Gestión Sostenible de los Recursos Pesqueros ; 2011-2012

La costruzione razionale della casa. Scritti e progetti di Giuseppe Pagano

The rational construction of the house. The writings and projects of Giuseppe Pagano Description, themes and research objectives The research aims at analysing the architecture of Giuseppe Pagano, which focuses on the theme of dwelling, through the reading of 3 of his house projects. On the one hand, these projects represent “minor” works not thoroughly known by Pagano’s contemporary critics; on the other they emphasise a particular methodological approach, which serves the author to explore a theme closely linked to his theoretical thought. The house project is a key to Pagano’s research, given its ties to the socio-cultural and political conditions in which the architect was working, so that it becomes a mirror of one of his specific and theoretical path, always in a state of becoming. Pagano understands architecture as a “servant of the human being”, subject to a “utilitarian slavery” since it is a clear, essential and “modest” answer to specific human needs, free from aprioristic aesthetic and formal choices. It is a rational architecture in sensu stricto; it constitutes a perfect synthesis between cause and effect and between function and form. The house needs to accommodate these principles because it is closely intertwined with human needs and intimately linked to a specific place, climatic conditions and technical and economical possibilities. Besides, differently from his public and common masterpieces such as the Palazzo Gualino, the Istituto di Fisica and the Università Commerciale Bocconi, the house projects are representative of a precise project will, which is expressed in a more authentic way, partially freed from political influences and dogmatic preoccupations and, therefore, far from the attempt to research a specific expressive language. I believe that the house project better represents that “ingenuity”, freshness and “sincerity” that Pagano identifies with the minor architecture, thereby revealing a more authentic expression of his understanding of a project. Therefore, the thesis, by tracing the theoretical research of Pagano through the analysis of some of his designed and built works, attempts to identify a specific methodological approach to Pagano’s project, which, developed through time, achieves a certain clarity in the 1930s. In fact, this methodological approach becomes more evident in his last projects, mainly regarding the house and the urban space. These reflect the attempt to respond to the new social needs and, at the same time, they also are an expression of a freer idea of built architecture, closely linked with the place and with the human being who dwells it. The three chosen projects (Villa Colli, La Casa a struttura d’acciaio and Villa Caraccio) make Pagano facing different places, different customers and different economic and technical conditions, which, given the author’s biography, correspond to important historical and political conditions. This is the reason why the projects become apparently distant works, both linguistically and conceptually, to the point that one can define them as ”eclectic”. However, I argue that this eclecticism is actually an added value to the architectural work of Pagano, steaming from the use of a method which, having as a basis the postulate of a rational architecture as essence and logic of building, finds specific variations depending on the multiple variables to be addressed by the project. This is the methodological heritage that Pagano learns from the tradition, especially that of the rural residential architecture, defined by Pagano as a “dictionary of the building logic of man”, as an “a-stylistic background”. For Pagano this traditional architecture is a clear expression of the relationships between a theme and its development, an architectural “fact” that is resolved with purely technical and utilitarian aims and with a spontaneous development far from any aprioristic theoretical principle. Architecture, therefore, cannot be an invention for Pagano and the personal contribution of each architect has to consider his/her close relationship with the specific historical context, place and new building methods. These are basic principles in the methodological approach that drives a great deal of his research and that also permits his thought to be modern. I argue that both ongoing and new collaborations with younger protagonists of the culture and architecture of the period are significant for the development of his methodology. These encounters represent the will to spread his own understanding of the “new architecture” as well as a way of self-renewal by confronting the self with new themes and realities and by learning from his collaborators. Thesis’ outline The thesis is divided in two principal parts, each articulated in four chapters attempting to offer a new reading of the theory and work of Pagano by emphasising the central themes of the research. The first chapter is an introduction to the thesis and to the theme of the rational house, as understood and developed in its typological and technical aspects by Pagano and by other protagonists of the Italian rationalism of the 1930s. Here the attention is on two different aspects defining, according to Pagano, the house project: on the one hand, the typological renewal, aimed at defining a “standard form” as a clear and essential answer to certain needs and variables of the project leading to different formal expressions. On the other, it focuses on the building, understood as a technique to “produce” architecture, where new technologies and new materials are not merely tools but also essential elements of the architectural work. In this way the villa becomes different from the theme of the common house or from that of the minimalist house, by using rules in the choice of material and in the techniques that are every time different depending on the theme under exploration and on the contingency of place. It is also visible the rigorous rationalism that distinguishes the author's appropriation of certain themes of rural architecture. The pages of “Casabella” and the events of the contemporary Triennali form the preliminary material for the writing of this chapter given that they are primary sources to individuate projects and writings produced by Pagano and contemporary architects on this theme. These writings and projects, when compared, reconstruct the evolution of the idea of the rational house and, specifically, of the personal research of Pagano. The second part regards the reading of three of Pagano’s projects of houses as a built verification of his theories. This section constitutes the central part of the thesis since it is aimed at detecting a specific methodological approach showing a theoretical and ideological evolution expressed in the vast edited literature. The three projects that have been chosen explore the theme of the house, looking at various research themes that the author proposes and that find continuity in the affirmation of a specific rationalism, focussed on concepts such as essentiality, utility, functionality and building honesty. These concepts guide the thought and the activities of Pagano, also reflecting a social and cultural period. The projects span from the theme of the villa moderna, Villa Colli, which, inspired by the architecture of North Europe, anticipates a specific rationalism of Pagano based on rigour, simplicity and essentiality, to the theme of the common house, Casa a struttura d’acciaio, la casa del domani, which ponders on the definition of new living spaces and, moreover, on new concepts of standardisation, economical efficiency and new materials responding to the changing needs of the modern society. Finally, the third project returns to the theme of the, Villa Caraccio, revisiting it with new perspectives. These perspectives find in the solution of the open plant, in the openness to nature and landscape and in the revisiting of materials and local building systems that idea of the freed house, which express clearly a new theoretical thought. Methodology It needs to be noted that due to the lack of an official Archive of Pagano’s work, the analysis of his work has been difficult and this explains the necessity to read the articles and the drawings published in the pages of «Casabella» and «Domus». As for the projects of Villa Colli and Casa a struttura d’acciaio, parts of the original drawings have been consulted. These drawings are not published and are kept in private archives of the collaborators of Pagano. The consultation of these documents has permitted the analysis of the cited works, which have been subject to a more complete reading following the different proposed solutions, which have permitted to understand the project path. The projects are analysed thought the method of comparison and critical reading which, specifically, means graphical elaborations and analytical schemes, mostly reconstructed on the basis of original projects but, where possible, also on a photographic investigation. The focus is on the project theme which, beginning with a specific living (dwelling) typology, finds variations because of the historico-political context in which Pagano is embedded and which partially shapes his research and theoretical thought, then translated in the built work. The analysis of the work follows, beginning, where possible, from a reconstruction of the evolution of the project as elaborated on the basis of the original documents and ending on an analysis of the constructive principles and composition. This second phase employs a methodology proposed by Pagano in his article Piante di ville, which, as expected, focuses on the plant as essential tool to identify the “true practical and poetic qualities of the construction”(Pagano, «Costruzioni-Casabella», 1940, p. 2). The reading of the project is integrated with the constructive analyses related to the technical aspects of the house which, in the case of Casa a struttura d’acciaio, play an important role in the project, while in Villa Colli and in Villa Caraccio are principally linked to the choice of materials for the construction of the different architectural elements. These are nonetheless key factors in the composition of the work. Future work could extend this reading to other house projects to deepen the research that could be completed with the consultation of Archival materials, which are missing at present. Finally, in the appendix I present a critical selection of the Pagano’s writings, which recall the themes discussed and embodied by the three projects. The texts have been selected among the articles published in Casabella and in other journals, completing the reading of the project work which cannot be detached from his theoretical thought. Moving from theory to project, we follow a path that brings us to define and deepen the central theme of the thesis: rational building as the principal feature of the architectural research of Pagano, which is paraphrased in multiple ways in his designed and built works.

Ignazio Gardella, metodo e linguaggio nel progetto della residenza

La ricerca inquadra all’interno dell’opera dell’autore, lo specifico tema della residenza. Esso costituisce il campo di applicazione del progetto di architettura, in cui più efficacemente ricercare i tratti caratteristici del metodo progettuale dell’architetto, chiave di lettura dello studio proposto. Il processo che giunge alla costituzione materiale dell’architettura, viene considerato nelle fasi in cui è scomposto, negli strumenti che adotta, negli obbiettivi che si pone, nel rapporto con i sistemi produttivi, per come affronta il tema della forma e del programma e confrontato con la vasta letteratura presente nel pensiero di alcuni autori vicini a Ignazio Gardella. Si definiscono in tal modo i tratti di una metodologia fortemente connotata dal realismo, che rende coerente una ricerca empirica e razionale, legata ad un’idea di architettura classica, di matrice illuministica e attenta alle istanze della modernità, all’interno della quale si realizza l’eteronomia linguistica che caratterizza uno dei tratti caratteristici delle architetture di Ignazio Gardella; aspetto più volte interpretato come appartenenza ai movimenti del novecento, che intersecano costantemente la lunga carriera dell’architetto. L’analisi dell’opera della residenza è condotta non per casi esemplari, ma sulla totalità dei progetti che si avvale anche di contributi inediti. Essa è intesa come percorso di ricerca personale sui processi compositivi e sull’uso del linguaggio e permette un riposizionamento della figura di Gardella, in relazione al farsi dell’architettura, della sua realizzazione e non alla volontà di assecondare stili o norme a-priori. E’ la dimensione pratica, del mestiere, quella che meglio si presta all’interpretazione dei progetti di Gardella. Le residenze dell’architetto si mostrano per la capacità di adattarsi ai vincoli del luogo, del committente, della tecnologia, attraverso la re-interpretazione formale e il trasferimento da un tema all’altro, degli elementi essenziali che mostrano attraverso la loro immagine, una precisa idea di casa e di architettura, non autoriale, ma riconoscibile e a-temporale.

Forward implied volatility expansions in LSV models

In this work we address the problem of finding formulas for efficient and reliable analytical approximation for the calculation of forward implied volatility in LSV models, a problem which is reduced to the calculation of option prices as an expansion of the price of the same financial asset in a Black-Scholes dynamic. Our approach involves an expansion of the differential operator, whose solution represents the price in local stochastic volatility dynamics. Further calculations then allow to obtain an expansion of the implied volatility without the aid of any special function or expensive from the computational point of view, in order to obtain explicit formulas fast to calculate but also as accurate as possible.

Tutela e valorizzazione delle produzioni agroalimentari di qualità attraverso strategie di brand management.Il modello Coop.

Questa tesi di dottorato verte sull'individuazione di politiche industriali atte ad implementare il mercato dei prodotti a denominazione di origine. Inevitabilmente, l’analisi economica dei prodotti agroalimentari tipici di qualità implica anche l’approfondimento e l’individuazione, delle problematiche connesse con la creazione di un valore addizionale per il consumatore, rispetto a quello dei prodotti standardizzati. Questo approccio richiama l’attenzione, da una parte, sulle caratteristiche della domanda e sulla disponibilità del consumatore a riconoscere e apprezzare questo plus-valore, dall’altra sulle strategie che l’offerta può attivare per conseguire un premium price rispetto al prodotto standardizzato. Le certificazioni comunitarie Dop, Igp e Stg oltre che il marchio di prodotto biologico racchiudono, solitamente, tali dinamiche valoriali ma sono tutt’oggi poco conosciute dai consumatori. Diversi studi internazionali dimostrano, infatti, che la maggioranza dei cittadini comunitari ignorano il significato delle certificazioni di qualità. L’ipotesi di fondo di questo studio si basa sulla possibilità di fidelizzare questi marchi con i brand della grande distribuzione già affermati, come quello di Coop. Analizzare gli effetti dell’introduzione di prodotti private label a denominazione di origine nel mercato della grande distribuzione organizzata italiana ci permetterebbe di comprendere se questo segmento di mercato può aiutare il settore delle Dop/Igp. Questo studio ha cercato di verificare se il prodotto private label a denominazione di origine, riesca a sfruttare il doppio binario di fiducia rappresentato dal marchio comunitario unito a quello dell’impresa di distribuzione. Per comprendere la propensione del consumatore a spendere di più per questi prodotti, abbiamo utilizzato l’analisi dell’elasticità della domanda sul prezzo dei dati scanner fornitici da Coop Adriatica. Siamo riusciti a dimostrare tale positivo connubio confermato anche da una indagine demoscopica effettuata ad hoc sui consumatori.

Pricing in stochastic-local volatility models with default

In recent years is becoming increasingly important to handle credit risk. Credit risk is the risk associated with the possibility of bankruptcy. More precisely, if a derivative provides for a payment at cert time T but before that time the counterparty defaults, at maturity the payment cannot be effectively performed, so the owner of the contract loses it entirely or a part of it. It means that the payoff of the derivative, and consequently its price, depends on the underlying of the basic derivative and on the risk of bankruptcy of the counterparty. To value and to hedge credit risk in a consistent way, one needs to develop a quantitative model. We have studied analytical approximation formulas and numerical methods such as Monte Carlo method in order to calculate the price of a bond. We have illustrated how to obtain fast and accurate pricing approximations by expanding the drift and diffusion as a Taylor series and we have compared the second and third order approximation of the Bond and Call price with an accurate Monte Carlo simulation. We have analysed JDCEV model with constant or stochastic interest rate. We have provided numerical examples that illustrate the effectiveness and versatility of our methods. We have used Wolfram Mathematica and Matlab.

Twitter data analysis for financial markets

Over the time, Twitter has become a fundamental source of information for news. As a one step forward, researchers have tried to analyse if the tweets contain predictive power. In the past, in financial field, a lot of research has been done to propose a function which takes as input all the tweets for a particular stock or index s, analyse them and predict the stock or index price of s. In this work, we take an alternative approach: using the stock price and tweet information, we investigate following questions. 1. Is there any relation between the amount of tweets being generated and the stocks being exchanged? 2. Is there any relation between the sentiment of the tweets and stock prices? 3. What is the structure of the graph that describes the relationships between users?

Carbon sequestration in Himalaya's alpine meadows: Mitigating cropping encroachment on pastures in Northern Pakistan

Rangelands store about 30% of the world’s carbon and support over 120 million pastoralists globally. Adjusting the management of remote alpine pastures bears a substantial climate change mitigation potential that can provide livelihood support for marginalized pastoralists through carbon payment. Landless pastoralists in Northern Pakistan seek higher income by cropping potatoes and peas over alpine pastures. However, tilling steep slopes without terracing exposes soil to erosion. Moreover, yields decline rapidly requiring increasing fertilizer inputs. Under these conditions, carbon payment could be a feasible option to compensate pastoralists for renouncing hazardous cropping while favoring pastoral activities. The study quantifies and compares C on cropped and grazed land. The hypothesis was that cropping on alpine pastures reduces former carbon storage. The study area located in the Naran valley of the Pakistani Himalayas receives an annual average of 819 mm of rain and 764 mm of snow. Average temperatures remain below 0°C from November to March while frost may occur all year round. A total of 72 soil core samples were collected discriminating land use (cropping, pasture), aspect (North, South), elevation (low 3000, middle 3100, and high 3200 m a.s.l.), and soil depth (shallow 0-10, deep 10-30 cm). Thirty six biomass samples were collected over the same independent variables (except for soil depth) using a 10x10x20 cm steal box inserted in the ground for each sample. Aboveground biomass and coarse roots were separated from the soil aggregate and oven-dried. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and biomass carbon (BC) were estimated through a potassium dichromate oxidation treatment. The samples were collected during the second week of October 2010 at the end of the grazing and cropping season and before the first snowfall. The data was statistically analyzed by means of a one-way analysis of variance. Results show that all variables taken separately have a significant effect on mean SOC [%]: crop/pasture 1.33/1.6, North/South 1.61/1.32, low/middle/high 1.09/1.62/1.68, shallow/deep 1.4/1.53. However, for BC, only land use has a significant effect with more than twice the amount of carbon in pastures [g m-2]: crop/pasture 127/318. These preliminary findings suggest that preventing the conversion of pastures into cropping fields in the Naran valley avoids an average loss of 12.2 t C ha-1 or 44.8 t CO2eq ha-1 representing a foreseeable compensation of 672 € ha-1 for the Naran landless pastoralists who would renounce cropping. The ongoing study shall provide a complete picture for carbon payment integrating key aspects such as the rate of cropping encroachment over pastures per year, the methane leakage from the system due to livestock enteric fermentation, the expected cropping income vs. livestock income and the transaction costs of implementing the mitigation project, certifying it, and verifying carbon credits. A net present value over an infinite time horizon for the mitigation scenario shall be estimated on an iterative simulation to consider weather and price uncertainties. The study will also provide an estimate of the minimum price of carbon at which pastoralists would consider engaging in the mitigation activity.

A Natural Gas Severance Tax-An Economic Analysis

This study estimates the economic effects of a severance tax on the market for natural gas produced from shale sources using non-conventional extraction methods, such as horizontal drilling and fracking. Results suggest that a severance tax of 5% would increase the price of natural gas by as much as 3.82% and decrease gas extraction by an estimated 1.16% to a value of 9.52%. If applied to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in the United States, a 5% severance tax is estimated to raise between US$443 and $486 million per year in public revenue. The marginal deadweight loss associated with a 5% severance tax is estimated between 1.27% and 12.85% of the last dollar earned. The burden of this tax falls on both producers and consumers and depends upon the underlying assumptions made regarding the price responsiveness of consumers and producers. Under plausible assumptions, a family consuming 1000 MMcfs (approximate to 2.8 x 10(4) m(3)) per year of natural gas is estimated to pay an additional $100 per year after the implementation of a 5% severance tax.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.