Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Osteoporosis in Paediatric Patients with Spina Bifida

The prevalence andmorbidity associated with osteoporosis and fractures in patients with spina bifida (SB) highlight the importance of osteoporosis prevention and treatment in early childhood; however, the issue has received little attention. The method for the selection of appropriate patients for drug treatment has not been clarified. Objective: To review the literature concerning fracture risks and low bone density in paediatric patients with SB. We looked for studies describing state-of-the-art treatments and for prevention of secondary osteoporosis. Methods: Articles were identified through a search in the electronic database (PUBMED) supplemented with reviews of the reference lists of selected papers. The main outcome measures were incidence of fractures and risk factors for fracture, an association between bone mineral density (BMD) and occurrence of fracture, risk factors of low BMD, and effects of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments on BMD and on the incidence of fractures. We considered as a secondary outcome the occurrence of fractures in relation to the mechanism of injury. Results: Results indicated that patients with SB are at increased risk for fractures and low BMD. Risk factors that may predispose patients to fractures include higher levels of neurological involvement, non-ambulatory status, physical inactivity, hypercalciuria, higher body fat levels, contractures, and a previous spontaneous fracture. Limitations were observed in the number and quality of studies concerning osteoporosis prevention and treatment in paediatric patients with SB. The safety and efficiency of drugs to treat osteoporosis in adults have not been evaluated satisfactorily in children with SB.

High prevalence of dna from non-H. pylori helicobacters in the gastric mucosa of venezuelan pet dogs and its histological alterations

Non-H. pylori helicobacters (NHPH) have been demonstrated as gastric spiral-shaped bacteria in specimens obtained from dogs; however, their roles in the pathogenesis of upper gastrointestinal disease have not yet been clearly established. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of NHPH DNA in the gastric mucosa of dogs and its association with histopathology. Helicobacter was detected through histopathological techniques, PCR, and FISH analysis from fundic biopsies of twenty dogs with or without signs of gastrointestinal disease. PCR and FISH were based on partial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Nineteen dogs showed mild to marked gastritis in the fundus, and only one dog had a healthy gastric mucosa. NHPH DNA was detected in 18 dogs with gastritis and one with normal gastric mucosa. However, there was no significant correlation between the presence of NHPH DNA and the degree of gastritis. These results show a high prevalence of NHPH DNA in the gastric mucosa of dogs from Venezuela. Further studies are necessary to determine a possible association between a specific NHPH species and the degree of gastritis.

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis with involvement of liver histopathologically confirmed: a case report

Human abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a zoonotic disease caused by ingestion of the L3 larvae of Angiostrongylus costaricensis. The human infection gives rise to a pathological condition characterized by acute abdominal pain, secondary to an inflammatory granulomatous reaction, marked eosinophilia and eosinophilic vasculitis. Most commonly this disease is limited to intestinal location, primary ileocecal, affecting the mesenteric arterial branches and intestinal walls. We present one of the few cases reported around the world with simultaneous involvement of the intestines and liver, including proved presence of nematodes inside the hepatic arteriole.

Yellow fever epizootics in non-human primates, São Paulo state, Brazil, 2008-2009

Since 2000, the expansion of Sylvatic Yellow Fever (YF) has been observed in the southeast of Brazil, being detected in areas considered silent for decades. Epizootics in non-human primates (NHPs) are considered sentinel events for the detection of human cases. It is important to report epizootic events that could have impact on the conservation status of susceptible species. We describe the epizootics in NHPs, notified in state of São Paulo, Brazil, between September 2008 to August 2009. Ninety-one epizootic events, involving 147 animals, were reported in 36 counties. Samples were obtained from 65 animals (44.2%). Most of the epizootics (46.6%) were reported between March and April, the same period during which human cases of YF occurred in the state. Biological samples were collected from animals found dead and were sent to Instituto Adolfo Lutz, in São Paulo. Two samples, collected in two counties without an indication for YF vaccination, were positive for the virus. Another 48 animals were associated with YF by clinical-epidemiological linkage with laboratory confirmed cases. Because the disease in human and NHPs occurred in the same period, the detection of the virus in NHPs did not work as sentinel, but aided in the delineation of new areas of risk.

Which “place and non-place” do women occupy in social economy organisations?

Scientific literature has strengthened the perpetuation of inequality factors in the labour market based on gender, despite the on-going endeavour of various political bodies and legal norms against the vertical and horizontal segregation of women. National and European statistical data shows the relevance and timeless features of theories of market segmentation associated with the labour market dating back to the 70’s of the 20th century. Hence, the European Community considers as a priority in the Europe 2020 strategy, the definition of “policies to promote gender equality […] to increase labour force participation thus adding to growth and social cohesion”. If we consider that on the one hand, social economy is fairly recognised to be equated with market actors and the State for its economic and social role in tackling the current crisis, and on the other hand, that the ideals of the sector, systematised in the “Framework Law of Social Economy” (Law no. 30/2013 8th of May), particularly in article 5 proposing “the respect for the values […] of equality and non-discrimination […], justice and equity […]”, we aim to reflect on indicators that uncover a vertical and horizontal segregation in the labour market. Departing from a mixed methodological approach (extensive and intensive), subject to the topic of "Social Entrepreneurship in Portugal" in social economy organisations, we detect very high rates of employment feminisation, with a ratio of 1 man (23%) for every 3 women (77%). Women are mainly earmarked for technical and operational activities, arising from the privileged intervention areas, namely education, training, health, elderly, families, poverty, ultimately being underrepresented in statutory boards and, as such, far removed from deliberations and strategic resolutions. This is particularly visible in the existing hierarchy of functions and management practices of the responsibility of male members. Thus, it seems easily verified that the sector is travelling away from the ideals of justice and social equity, which can crystallise the "non-place" of women in the definition of a strategic direction of social economy and in the most invisible/private “place” of the organisational setting.

Long-Term Evaluation of Recurrence after Photodynamic Therapy with Topical Methyl Aminolevulinate for Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer: a Hospital-Based Study

Introduction & Objectives: Several factors may influence the decision to pursue nonsurgical modalities for the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer. Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a non-invasive alternative treatment reported to have a high efficacy when using standardized protocols in Bowen’s disease (BD), superficial basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and in thin nodular BCC. However, long-term recurrence studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of PDT with topical methylaminolevulinate (MAL) for the treatment of BD and BCC in a dermato-oncology department. Materials & Methods: All patients with the diagnosis of BD or BCC, treated with MAL-PDT from the years 2004 to 2008, were enrolled. Treatment protocol included two MAL-PDT sessions one week apart repeated at three months when incomplete response, using a red light dose of 37-40 J/cm2 and an exposure time of 8’20’’. Clinical records were retrospectively reviewed, and data regarding age, sex, tumour location, size, treatment outcomes and recurrence were registered. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi square tests, followed by survival analysis with the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. Results: Sixty-eight patients (median age 71.0 years, P25;P75=30;92) with a total of 78 tumours (31 BD, 45 superficial BCC, 2 nodular BCC) and a median tumour size of 5 cm2 were treated. Overall, the median follow-up period was 43.5 months (P25;P75=0;100), and a total recurrence rate of 33.8% was observed (24.4 % for BCC vs. 45.2% for BD). Estimated recurrence rates for BCC and BD were 5.0% vs. 7.4% at 6 months, 23.4% vs. 27.9% at 12 months, and 30.0% vs. 72.4% at 60 months. Both age and diagnosis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence, with significantly higher estimated recurrence rates in patients with BD (p=0.0036) or younger than 58 years old (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence (hazard ratio) was 2.4 times higher in patients with BD compared to superficial BCC (95% CI:1.1-5.3; p=0.033), and 2.8 times higher in patients younger than 58 years old (95% CI:1.2-6.5; p=0.02). Conclusions: In the studied population, estimated recurrence rates are higher than those expected from available literature, possibly due to a longer follow-up period. To the authors’ knowledge there is only one other study with a similar follow-up period, regarding BCC solely. BD, as an in situ squamous cell carcinoma, has a higher tendency to recur than superficial BCC. Despite greater cosmesis, PDT might no be the best treatment option for young patients considering their higher risk of recurrence.

PREVALENCE OF ANTIBODIES AGAINST INFLUENZA VIRUS IN NON-VACCINATED EQUINES FROM THE BRAZILIAN PANTANAL

The prevalence of antibodies against Equine Influenza Virus (EIV) was determined in 529 equines living on ranches in the municipality of Poconé, Pantanal area of Brazil, by means of the hemagglutination inhibition test, using subtype H3N8 as antigen. The distribution and possible association among positive animal and ranches were evaluated by the chi-square test, spatial autoregressive and multiple linear regression models. The prevalence of antibodies against EIV was estimated at 45.2% (95% CI 30.2 - 61.1%) with titers ranging from 20 to 1,280 HAU. Seropositive equines were found on 92.0% of the surveyed ranches. Equine from non-flooded ranches (66.5%) and negativity in equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) (61.7%) were associated with antibodies against EIV. No spatial correlation was found among the ranches, but the ones located in non-flooded areas were associated with antibodies against EIV. A negative correlation was found between the prevalence of antibodies against EIV and the presence of EIAV positive animals on the ranches. The high prevalence of antibodies against EIV detected in this study suggests that the virus is circulating among the animals, and this statistical analysis indicates that the movement and aggregation of animals are factors associated to the transmission of the virus in the region.

LEPROSY NEPHROPATHY: A REVIEW OF CLINICAL AND HISTOPATHOLOGICAL FEATURES

Leprosy is a chronic disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, highly incapacitating, and with systemic involvement in some cases. Renal involvement has been reported in all forms of the disease, and it is more frequent in multibacillary forms. The clinical presentation is variable and is determined by the host immunologic system reaction to the bacilli. During the course of the disease there are the so called reactional states, in which the immune system reacts against the bacilli, exacerbating the clinical manifestations. Different renal lesions have been described in leprosy, including acute and chronic glomerulonephritis, interstitial nephritis, secondary amyloidosis and pyelonephritis. The exact mechanism that leads to glomerulonephritis in leprosy is not completely understood. Leprosy treatment includes rifampicin, dapsone and clofazimine. Prednisone and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may be used to control acute immunological episodes.

SURVIVAL, INDUCTION AND RESUSCITATION OF Vibrio cholerae FROM THE VIABLE BUT NON-CULTURABLE STATE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, can enter into a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) state in response to unfavorable conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in situ survival of V. cholerae in an aquatic environment of the Southern Caribbean Sea, and its induction and resuscitation from the VBNC state. V. cholerae non-O1, non-O139 was inoculated into diffusion chambers placed at the Cuare Wildlife Refuge, Venezuela, and monitored for plate, total and viable cells counts. At 119 days of exposure to the environment, the colony count was < 10 CFU/mL and a portion of the bacterial population entered the VBNC state. Additionally, the viability decreased two orders of magnitude and morphological changes occurred from rod to coccoid cells. Among the aquatic environmental variables, the salinity had negative correlation with the colony counts in the dry season. Resuscitation studies showed significant recovery of cell cultivability with spent media addition (p < 0.05). These results suggest that V. cholerae can persist in the VBNC state in this Caribbean environment and revert to a cultivable form under favorable conditions. The VBNC state might represent a critical step in cholera transmission in susceptible areas.

Contribuição ao estudo da mistura néon-azoto a baixas temperaturas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Física

SERUM LEVELS OF COPPER AND IRON IN DENGUE FEVER

SUMMARY The role of trace elements in dengue virulence is not yet known. The present study assessed the serum levels of two micronutrients, copper and iron, in cases of dengue fever. The study involved 96 patients of whom 48 had either severe or non-severe forms of dengue (with and without warning signs), and the remaining 48 were patients with other febrile illnesses (OFI), used as controls. Serum levels of copper and iron were evaluated at admission and by the time of defervescence using commercially available kits. At admission, no difference in the level of serum copper was observed between cases and controls. In the group of dengue cases, the copper level was found to be significantly decreased in severe and non-severe cases with warning signs, compared to non-severe cases without warning signs. In contrast, by the time of defervescence the copper level was found to be increased in all dengue cases compared to OFI controls, but no difference was observed among dengue cases. Unlike OFI controls, dengue cases showed an increasing pattern of copper levels from admission until defervescence. On the other hand, no such significant differences were observed in the serum level of iron in the clinical groups, except for a decreased iron level found in severe cases, compared to non-severe dengue without warning signs. The results show that copper is associated with dengue severity and this finding emphasizes the need to investigate the involvement of trace elements in disease severity so as to improve the prognosis of dengue.

FATAL DISSEMINATED CRYPTOCOCCOSIS WITH RENAL INVOLVEMENT IN AN HIV-INFECTED PATIENT

SUMMARY Introduction: We present a fatal case of disseminated cryptococcosis in a young man whose diagnosis of HIV infection was made at the time of admission to the emergency room. Case report: The patient was a twenty-three-year-old man, with a history of daily fever during one month associated with diarrhea, weight loss, headache, vomiting and generalized seizures. He also had a history of diabetes mellitus, alcoholism and drug addiction. Upon physical examination the patient was pale, disoriented and had periods of agitation. White blood cells count was 3,440/mm3 (5% lymphocytes), hemoglobin was 10g/dL, platelets were 83,000/ mm3. Creatinine was 0.7 mg/dL; urea 19 mg/dL; Na, K, and liver enzymes were within normal limits. Lactic dehydrogenase was 494 IU/L. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis revealed 10 white blood cells/mm3 (58% neutrophils, 31% lymphocytes, 11% monocytes) and 2 red blood cells/mm3. India ink test revealed six Cryptococcus yeasts/mm3. CSF glucose was 122 mg/dL and protein was 36 mg/ dL. VDRL test was negative and anti-HIV test was positive. Intravenous hydration, insulin, phenytoin, fluconazole, pyrimethamine, sulfadiazine, folinic acid, and amphotericin B were started. The patient did not improve and became obtunded and hypotensive. He was intubated and put on mechanical respiration. He received vasoactive drugs and died less than 24 hours after admission. A postmortem examination was performed and revealed disseminated cryptococcosis, with severe involvement of the kidneys. Conclusion: Cryptococcosis, as a rule, is a systemic disease that affects mostly immunocompromised individuals, especially patients with AIDS. When diagnosed late in its course it has a very high mortality.

A relevância da participação dos stakeholders na gestão das organizações do terceiro setor

Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão das Organizaçoes de Terceiro Setor