912 resultados para modeling trends and data


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Since the financial and economic crisis began to affect the real economy and spread throughout the world, the region’s economies have been faced with a situation where data on employment and labour reflect the real stories of millions of women and men for whom the future has become uncertain. When these problems began to appear, the International Labour Organization (ILO) warned that the world faced a global employment crisis whose consequences could lead to a social recession. As the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has pointed out, the outbreak of the crisis put an end to a five-year period of sustained growth and falling unemployment. As early as the second half of 2008, the figures began to reflect slowing economic growth, while a downward slide began in the labour market. This initial bulletin, produced jointly by ECLAC and ILO, seeks to review the ways in which the crisis is affecting the region’s labour markets. Amidst a situation characterized by shocks and uncertainty, governments and social partners must have the inputs needed for designing public policies to increase the population’s levels of employment and well-being. It is planned to produce two further bulletins by January 2010, in order to measure the impact of the crisis on employment and provide an input to the process of defining the best public policies to reverse its consequences. The bulletin reviews the most recent available indicators and analyses them in order to establish trends and detect variations. It provides statistics for the first quarter, estimates for the rest of 2009, and a review of policies announced by the Governments. In 2008, the last year of the growth cycle, the region’s urban unemployment stood at 7.5%. According to economic growth forecasts for 2009, the average annual urban unemployment rate for the region will increase to between 8.7% and 9.1%; in other words, between 2.8 million and 3.9 million additional people will swell the ranks of the unemployed. Data for the first quarter of 2009 already confirm that the crisis is hitting employment in the region. Compared with the first quarter of 2008, the urban unemployment rate was up by 0.6 percentage points, representing over a million people.Work will continue until September 2009 on the preparation of a new report on the employment situation, using data updated to the first half of 2009. This will provide a picture of the region’s employment situation, so that growth and employment projections can be adjusted for 2009 as a whole. Strategies for dealing with the crisis must have jobs and income protection as their central goals. Policies are moving in that direction in Latin America and the Caribbean and, if they are effective, an even greater worsening of the situation may be avoided. Labour produces wealth, generates consumption, keeps economies functioning and is a key factor in seeking out the way to more sustainable and equitable growth once the crisis is past.

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As condições naturais dos recursos hídricos podem ser modificadas com o uso insustentável dos mesmos. Por exemplo, em Belém, capital do Estado do Pará, o lago Água Preta, apresenta uma história de degradação que põe em risco o abastecimento de água potável em Belém. Nesse contexto, a principal contribuição do presente trabalho, é a realização de um estudo sobre a modelagem hidrodinâmica e a morfologia do lago Água Preta. Tal estudo foi efetuado a partir de duas fontes de dados. A primeira é um mapa topobatimétrico de 1975, que faz parte dos arquivos da COSANPA. A segunda foi uma batimetria realizada com um ADCP em 2009. A modelagem iniciase com a elaboração dos modelos de elevação de terreno de 1975 e 2009, também utilizados para o estudo morfológico do lago. Para a utilização do modelo hidrodinâmico, são necessários os modelos de elevação de terreno supracitados; o modelo de rugosidade do relevo subaquático do lago, para o cálculo do coeficiente de Manning; e as condições de contorno. As simulações hidrodinâmicas de velocidade e profundidades foram realizadas utilizando o modelo de Saint-Venant do tipo águas rasas. No caso das profundidades, as mesmas foram comparadas com dados disponíveis na literatura, a fim de validá-las. Os resultados das simulações hidrodinâmicas, ou seja, profundidades e velocidades, associadas ao estudo morfológico, são peças chave na análise dos padrões de escoamento e de tendências de assoreamento do lago.

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Novel brominated amorphous hydrogenated carbon (a-C:H:Br) films were produced by the plasma polymerization of acetylene-bromoform mixtures. The main parameter of interest was the degree of bromination, which depends on the partial pressure of bromoform in the plasma feed, expressed as a percentage of the total pressure, R-B. When bromoform is present in the feed, deposition rates of up to about 110 nm min(-1) may be obtained. The structure and composition of the films were characterized by Transmission Infrared Reflection Absorption Spectroscopy (IRRAS) and X-ray Photo-electron Spectroscopy (XPS). The latter revealed that films with atomic ratios Br:C of up to 0.58 may be produced. Surface contact angles, measured using goniometry, could be increased from similar to 63 degrees (for an unbrominated film) to similar to 90 degrees for R-B of 60 to 80%. Film surface roughness, measured using a profilometer, does not depend strongly on R-B. Optical properties the refractive index, n, absorption coefficient, alpha(E), where E is the photon energy, and the optical gap, E-g, were determined from film thicknesses and data obtained by Transmission Ultraviolet-Visible Near Infrared Spectroscopy (UVS). Control of n was possible via selection of R-B. The measured optical gap increases with increasing F-BC, the atomic ratio of Br to C in the film, and semi-empirical modeling accounts for this tendency. A typical hardness of the brominated films, determined via nano-indentation, was similar to 0.5 GPa. (C), 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A survey to determine population trends and entomopathogenic fungi associated with the red palm mite (RPM), Raoiella indica, was conducted in Trinidad, Antigua, St. Kitts and Nevis and Dominica. RPM population density was evaluated by sampling a total of ten coconut palms per site in Antigua, St. Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, and Trinidad (Manzanilla and Icacos). Mites from the four islands were either surface sterilized or left unsterilized before being cultured on Tap Water Agar (TWA). A total of 318 fungal colonies were retrieved. A further 96 mites from Dominica were kept on sterile moist filter paper in a humidity chamber and a further 85 colonies were isolated. Based on morphological observations of all 403 isolates, a sample consisting of 32 colonies (8 %) was sent for identification at CABI-UK. Of the 27 fungi positively identified, 15 isolates belonged to the genera Cladosporium, three to Simplicillium spp., and one to Penicillium. Other fungi genera with limited or no entomopathogenic potential included: Aspergillus, Cochliobolus, Fusarium, Pestalotiopsis and Pithomyces. The results show a potential use of entomopathogenic fungi for population management of the red palm mite in the Caribbean region.

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We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

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Last Glacial Maximum simulated sea surface temperature from the Paleo-Climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Coupled Climate Model (NCAR-CCSM) are compared with available reconstructions and data-based products in the tropical and south Atlantic region. Model results are compared to data proxies based on the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface product (MARGO). Results show that the model sea surface temperature is not consistent with the proxy-data in all of the region of interest. Discrepancies are found in the eastern, equatorial and in the high-latitude South Atlantic. The model overestimates the cooling in the southern South Atlantic (near 50 degrees S) shown by the proxy-data. Near the equator, model and proxies are in better agreement. In the eastern part of the equatorial basin the model underestimates the cooling shown by all proxies. A northward shift in the position of the subtropical convergence zone in the simulation suggests a compression or/and an equatorward shift of the subtropical gyre at the surface, consistent with what is observed in the proxy reconstruction. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

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Sugarcane-breeding programs take at least 12 years to develop new commercial cultivars. Molecular markers offer a possibility to study the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in sugarcane, and they may be used in marker-assisted selection to speed up artificial selection. Although the performance of sugarcane progenies in breeding programs are commonly evaluated across a range of locations and harvest years, many of the QTL detection methods ignore two- and three-way interactions between QTL, harvest, and location. In this work, a strategy for QTL detection in multi-harvest-location trial data, based on interval mapping and mixed models, is proposed and applied to map QTL effects on a segregating progeny from a biparental cross of pre-commercial Brazilian cultivars, evaluated at two locations and three consecutive harvest years for cane yield (tonnes per hectare), sugar yield (tonnes per hectare), fiber percent, and sucrose content. In the mixed model, we have included appropriate (co)variance structures for modeling heterogeneity and correlation of genetic effects and non-genetic residual effects. Forty-six QTLs were found: 13 QTLs for cane yield, 14 for sugar yield, 11 for fiber percent, and 8 for sucrose content. In addition, QTL by harvest, QTL by location, and QTL by harvest by location interaction effects were significant for all evaluated traits (30 QTLs showed some interaction, and 16 none). Our results contribute to a better understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits related to biomass production and sucrose content in sugarcane.

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Each plasma physics laboratory has a proprietary scheme to control and data acquisition system. Usually, it is different from one laboratory to another. It means that each laboratory has its own way to control the experiment and retrieving data from the database. Fusion research relies to a great extent on international collaboration and this private system makes it difficult to follow the work remotely. The TCABR data analysis and acquisition system has been upgraded to support a joint research programme using remote participation technologies. The choice of MDSplus (Model Driven System plus) is proved by the fact that it is widely utilized, and the scientists from different institutions may use the same system in different experiments in different tokamaks without the need to know how each system treats its acquisition system and data analysis. Another important point is the fact that the MDSplus has a library system that allows communication between different types of language (JAVA, Fortran, C, C++, Python) and programs such as MATLAB, IDL, OCTAVE. In the case of tokamak TCABR interfaces (object of this paper) between the system already in use and MDSplus were developed, instead of using the MDSplus at all stages, from the control, and data acquisition to the data analysis. This was done in the way to preserve a complex system already in operation and otherwise it would take a long time to migrate. This implementation also allows add new components using the MDSplus fully at all stages. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of Sao Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. Methods: Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. Results: Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). Conclusions: Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil in its macro-regions and states between 1980 and 2009. METHODS: This was an ecological time-series study using data on breast cancer deaths registered in the Mortality Data System (SIM/WHO) and census data on the resident population collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE/WHO). Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify the significant changes in trends and to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates. RESULTS: Female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil tended to stabilize from 1994 onward (APC = 0.4%). Considering the Brazilian macro-regions, the annual mortality rates decreased in the Southeast, stabilized in the South and increased in the Northeast, North, and Midwest. Only the states of Sao Paulo (APC = -1.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -0.8%) and Rio de Janeiro (APC = -0.6%) presented a significant decline in mortality rates. The greatest increases were found in Maranhao (APC = 12%), Paraiba (APC = 11.9%), and Piaui (APC = 10.9%). CONCLUSION: Although there has been a trend toward stabilization in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil, when the mortality rate of each macro-region and state is analyzed individually, considerable inequalities are found, with rate decline or stabilization in states with higher socioeconomic levels and a substantial increase in those with lower socioeconomic levels.

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The Cretaceous Banhado alkaline complex in southeastern Brazil presents two potassic SiO2-undersaturated series. The high-Ca magmatic series consist of initially fractionated olivine (Fo(92-91)) + diopside (Wo(48-43)En(49-35)Ae(0-7)), as evidenced by the presence of xenocrysts and xenoliths. In that sequence, diopside (Wo(47-38)En(46-37)Ae(0-8)) + phlogopite + apatite + perovskite (Prv(> 92)) crystallized to form the phlogopite melteigite and led to the Ca enrichment of the magma. Diopside (Wo(47-41)En(32-24) Ae(3-14)) continued to crystallize as an early mafic mineral, followed by nepheline (Ne(74.8-70.1)Ks(26.3-21.2)Qz(7.6-0.9)) and leucite (Lc(65-56)) and subsequently by melanite and potassic feldspar (Or(85-99)Ab(1-7)) to form melanite ijolites, wollastonite-melanite urtites and melanite-nepheline syenites. Melanite-pseudoleucite-nepheline syenites are interpreted to be a leucite accumulation. Melanite nephelinite dykes are believed to represent some of the magmatic differentiation steps. The low-Ca magmatic series is representative of a typical fractionation of aegirine-augite (Wo(36-29)En(25-4)Ae(39-18)) + alkali feldspar (Or(57-96)Ab(3-43)) + nepheline (Ne(76.5-69.0)Ks(19.9-14.4)Qz(15.1-7.7)) + titanite from phonolite magma. The evolution of this series from potassic nepheline syenites to sodic sodalite syenites and sodalitolites is attributed to an extensive fractionation of potassic feldspar, which led to an increase of the NaCl activity in the melt during the final stages forming sodalite-rich rocks. Phonolite dykes followed a similar evolutionary process and also registered some crustal assimilation. The mesocratic nepheline syenites showed interactions with phlogopite melteigites, such as compatible trace element enrichments and the presence of diopside xenocrysts, which were interpreted to be due to a mixing/mingling process of phonolite and nephelinite magmas. The geochemical data show higher TiO2 and P2O5 contents and lower SiO2 contents for the high-Ca series and different LILE evolution trends and REE chondrite-normalized patterns as compared to the low-Ca series. The Sr-87/Sr-86, Nd-143/Nd-144, Pb-206/Pb-204 and Pb-208/Pb-204 initial ratios for the high-Ca series (0.70407-0.70526, 0.51242-0.51251, 17.782-19.266 and 38.051-39.521, respectively) were slightly different from those of the low-Ca series (0.70542-0.70583, 0.51232-0.51240, 17.758-17.772 and 38.021-38.061, respectively). For both series, a CO2-rich potassic metasomatized lithospheric mantle enriched the source with rutile-bearing phlogopite clinopyroxenite veins. Kamafugite-like parental magma is attributed to the high-Ca series with major contributions from the melting of the veins. Potassic nephelinite-like parental magma is assigned to the low-Ca series, where the metasomatized wall-rock played a more significant role in the melting process.

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Abstract Background Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America. Methods The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and São Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared. Results Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. São Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than São Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods. Conclusion The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.

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Background The use of the knowledge produced by sciences to promote human health is the main goal of translational medicine. To make it feasible we need computational methods to handle the large amount of information that arises from bench to bedside and to deal with its heterogeneity. A computational challenge that must be faced is to promote the integration of clinical, socio-demographic and biological data. In this effort, ontologies play an essential role as a powerful artifact for knowledge representation. Chado is a modular ontology-oriented database model that gained popularity due to its robustness and flexibility as a generic platform to store biological data; however it lacks supporting representation of clinical and socio-demographic information. Results We have implemented an extension of Chado – the Clinical Module - to allow the representation of this kind of information. Our approach consists of a framework for data integration through the use of a common reference ontology. The design of this framework has four levels: data level, to store the data; semantic level, to integrate and standardize the data by the use of ontologies; application level, to manage clinical databases, ontologies and data integration process; and web interface level, to allow interaction between the user and the system. The clinical module was built based on the Entity-Attribute-Value (EAV) model. We also proposed a methodology to migrate data from legacy clinical databases to the integrative framework. A Chado instance was initialized using a relational database management system. The Clinical Module was implemented and the framework was loaded using data from a factual clinical research database. Clinical and demographic data as well as biomaterial data were obtained from patients with tumors of head and neck. We implemented the IPTrans tool that is a complete environment for data migration, which comprises: the construction of a model to describe the legacy clinical data, based on an ontology; the Extraction, Transformation and Load (ETL) process to extract the data from the source clinical database and load it in the Clinical Module of Chado; the development of a web tool and a Bridge Layer to adapt the web tool to Chado, as well as other applications. Conclusions Open-source computational solutions currently available for translational science does not have a model to represent biomolecular information and also are not integrated with the existing bioinformatics tools. On the other hand, existing genomic data models do not represent clinical patient data. A framework was developed to support translational research by integrating biomolecular information coming from different “omics” technologies with patient’s clinical and socio-demographic data. This framework should present some features: flexibility, compression and robustness. The experiments accomplished from a use case demonstrated that the proposed system meets requirements of flexibility and robustness, leading to the desired integration. The Clinical Module can be accessed in http://dcm.ffclrp.usp.br/caib/pg=iptrans webcite.

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Abstract Background In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of São Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. Methods Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. Results Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). Conclusions Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

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Micelles composed of amphiphilic copolymers linked to a radioactive element are used in nuclear medicine predominantly as a diagnostic application. A relevant advantage of polymeric micelles in aqueous solution is their resulting particle size, which can vary from 10 to 100 nm in diameter. In this review, polymeric micelles labeled with radioisotopes including technetium (99mTc) and indium (111In), and their clinical applications for several diagnostic techniques, such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), gamma-scintigraphy, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), were discussed. Also, micelle use primarily for the diagnosis of lymphatic ducts and sentinel lymph nodes received special attention. Notably, the employment of these diagnostic techniques can be considered a significant tool for functionally exploring body systems as well as investigating molecular pathways involved in the disease process. The use of molecular modeling methodologies and computer-aided drug design strategies can also yield valuable information for the rational design and development of novel radiopharmaceuticals.