EVOLUTION OF DOMINANCE UNDER FREQUENCY-DEPENDENT INTRASPECIFIC COMPETITION IN AN ASSORTATIVELY MATING POPULATION

We study the evolution of higher levels of dominance as a response to negative frequency-dependent selection. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on the effect of assortative mating on the evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition. We analyze a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under a mixture of frequency-independent stabilizing selection, density-dependent selection, and frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The second (modifier) locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. Additionally, the population mates assortatively with respect to similarities in the ecological trait. Our analysis shows that the parameter region in which dominance can be established decreases if small levels of assortment are introduced. In addition, the degree of dominance that can be established also decreases. In contrast, if assortment is intermediate, sexual selection for extreme types can be established, which leads to evolution of higher levels of dominance than under random mating. For modifiers with large effects, intermediate levels of assortative mating are most favorable for the evolution of dominance. For large modifiers, the speed of fixation can even be higher for intermediate levels of assortative mating than for random mating.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Seasonal Variation in the Capacity for Plant Trait Measures to Predict Grassland Carbon and Water Fluxes

There is a need for accurate predictions of ecosystem carbon (C) and water fluxes in field conditions. Previous research has shown that ecosystem properties can be predicted from community abundance-weighted means (CWM) of plant functional traits and measures of trait variability within a community (FDvar). The capacity for traits to predict carbon (C) and water fluxes, and the seasonal dependency of these trait-function relationships has not been fully explored. Here we measured daytime C and water fluxes over four seasons in grasslands of a range of successional ages in southern England. In a model selection procedure, we related these fluxes to environmental covariates and plant biomass measures before adding CWM and FDvar plant trait measures that were scaled up from measures of individual plants grown in greenhouse conditions. Models describing fluxes in periods of low biological activity contained few predictors, which were usually abiotic factors. In more biologically active periods, models contained more predictors, including plant trait measures. Field-based plant biomass measures were generally better predictors of fluxes than CWM and FDvar traits. However, when these measures were used in combination traits accounted for additional variation. Where traits were significant predictors their identity often reflected seasonal vegetation dynamics. These results suggest that database derived trait measures can improve the prediction of ecosystem C and water fluxes. Controlled studies and those involving more detailed flux measurements are required to validate and explore these findings, a worthwhile effort given the potential for using simple vegetation measures to help predict landscape-scale fluxes.

Explosive speciation rates and unusual species richness in haplochromine cichlid fishes: Effects of sexual selection

Ancient lakes are often unusually species rich, mostly as a result of radiation and species-flock formation having taken place in only one or a few of many taxa present. Understanding why some taxa radiate and others do not is at the heart of understanding biodiversity. In this chapter I discuss possible explanations for disproportionally large species numbers in some cichlid fish lineages in East African Great Lakes: the halochromine cichlid fishes in Lakes Victoria and Malawi. I show that speciation rates in this group are higher than in any other lacustrine fish radiation. Against this background, I review hypotheses put forward to explain diversity in cichlid species flocks. The evolution of species diversity requires three processes: speciation, ecological radiation and anatomical diversification, and it is wrong to consider hypotheses that are relevant to different processes as alternatives to each other. The African cichlid species flocks show unusually high ecological species packing in several phylogenetic groups and unusually high speciation rates in haplochromines. Therefore, it maybe concluded that at least two evolutionary models are required to explain the difference between cichlid diversity and other fish diversity in East African Lakes: one for speciation in haplochromines and one for coexistence. Subsequently I review work on speciation in haplochromines, and in particular studies aimed at testing the hypothesis of speciation by sexual selection. Haplochromines have a polygynous mating system, conducive to sexual selection, but other polygynous cichlids are not particularly species rich. This suggests that more than just strong sexual selection is required to explain haplochromine species richness. Recent palaeoecological evidence undermines the previously popular hypotheses that explained the species richness of Lake Victoria in terms of speciation under varying natural or sexual selection regimes in satellite lakes or in isolated lake basins. I summarize experimental and comparative studies, which provide evidence for two mechanisms of sympatric speciation by disruptive sexual selection on polymorphic coloration. Such modes of speciation may explain (i) the high speciation rates in colour polymorphic lineages of haplochromine cichlids under conditions where colour variation is visible in clear water, and (ii) in combination with factors that affect population survival, the unusual species richness in haplochromine species flocks. I argue that sexual selection, if disruptive, can accelerate the pace of adaptive radiation because the resultant genetic population fragmentation allows a much increased rate of differential response to disruptive natural selection. Hence, the ecological pattern of diversity resembles that produced by disruptive natural selection, with the difference that disruptive sexual selection continues to cause (gross) speciation even after niche space is saturated. This may explain the unusually high numbers of very closely related and ecologically similar species in haplochromine species flocks. The role of disruptive sexual selection is twofold: it not only causes speciation, but also maintains reproductive isolation in sympatry between species that have evolved in sympatry or allopatry. Therefore, the maintenance of diversity in species flocks that originated through sexual selection depends on the persistence of the selection regime within the environmental signal space under which that diversity evolved.

Pre-clinical in vivo models for the screening of bone biomaterials for oral/craniofacial indications: focus on small-animal models.

Preclinical in vivo experimental studies are performed for evaluating proof-of-principle concepts, safety and possible unwanted reactions of candidate bone biomaterials before proceeding to clinical testing. Specifically, models involving small animals have been developed for screening bone biomaterials for their potential to enhance bone formation. No single model can completely recreate the anatomic, physiologic, biomechanic and functional environment of the human mouth and jaws. Relevant aspects regarding physiology, anatomy, dimensions and handling are discussed in this paper to elucidate the advantages and disadvantages of small-animal models. Model selection should be based not on the 'expertise' or capacities of the team, but rather on a scientifically solid rationale, and the animal model selected should reflect the question for which an answer is sought. The rationale for using heterotopic or orthotopic testing sites, and intraosseous, periosseous or extraskeletal defect models, is discussed. The paper also discusses the relevance of critical size defect modeling, with focus on calvarial defects in rodents. In addition, the rabbit sinus model and the capsule model in the rat mandible are presented and discussed in detail. All animal experiments should be designed with care and include sample-size and study-power calculations, thus allowing generation of meaningful data. Moreover, animal experiments are subject to ethical approval by the relevant authority. All procedures and the postoperative handling and care, including postoperative analgesics, should follow best practice.

Clinical Validation of a Peritoneal Dialysis Prescription Model in the PatientOnLine Software

Peritoneal transport characteristics and residual renal function require regular control and subsequent adjustment of the peritoneal dialysis (PD) prescription. Prescription models shall facilitate the prediction of the outcome of such adaptations for a given patient. In the present study, the prescription model implemented in the PatientOnLine software was validated in patients requiring a prescription change. This multicenter, international prospective cohort study with the aim to validate a PD prescription model included patients treated with continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis. Patients were examined with the peritoneal function test (PFT) to determine the outcome of their current prescription and the necessity for a prescription change. For these patients, a new prescription was modeled using the PatientOnLine software (Fresenius Medical Care, Bad Homburg, Germany). Two to four weeks after implementation of the new PD regimen, a second PFT was performed. The validation of the prescription model included 54 patients. Predicted and measured peritoneal Kt/V were 1.52 ± 0.31 and 1.66 ± 0.35, and total (peritoneal + renal) Kt/V values were 1.96 ± 0.48 and 2.06 ± 0.44, respectively. Predicted and measured peritoneal creatinine clearances were 42.9 ± 8.6 and 43.0 ± 8.8 L/1.73 m2/week and total creatinine clearances were 65.3 ± 26.0 and 63.3 ± 21.8 L/1.73 m2/week, respectively. The analysis revealed a Pearson's correlation coefficient for peritoneal Kt/V of 0.911 and Lin's concordance coefficient of 0.829. The value of both coefficients was 0.853 for peritoneal creatinine clearance. Predicted and measured daily net ultrafiltration was 0.77 ± 0.49 and 1.16 ± 0.63 L/24 h, respectively. Pearson's correlation and Lin's concordance coefficient were 0.518 and 0.402, respectively. Predicted and measured peritoneal glucose absorption was 125.8 ± 38.8 and 79.9 ± 30.7 g/24 h, respectively, and Pearson's correlation and Lin's concordance coefficient were 0.914 and 0.477, respectively. With good predictability of peritoneal Kt/V and creatinine clearance, the present model provides support for individual dialysis prescription in clinical practice. Peritoneal glucose absorption and ultrafiltration are less predictable and are likely to be influenced by additional clinical factors to be taken into consideration.

Comparison of two protocols of periosteal distraction osteogenesis in a rabbit calvaria model

The regenerative pathways during periosteal distraction osteogenesis may be influenced by the local environment composed by cells, growth factors, nutrition and mechanical load. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of two protocols of periosteal distraction on bone formation. Custom made distraction devices were surgically fixed onto the calvariae of 60 rabbits. After an initial healing period of 7 days, two groups of animals were submitted to distraction rates of 0.25 and 0.5 mm/24 h for 10 days, respectively. Six animals per group were sacrificed 10 (mid-distraction), 17 (end-distraction), 24 (1-week consolidation), 31 (2-week consolidation) and 77 days (2-month consolidation) after surgery. Newly formed bone was assessed by means of micro-CT and histologically. Expression of transcripts encoding tissue-specific genes (BMP-2, RUNX2, ACP5, SPARC, collagen I α1, collagen II α1 and SOX9) was analyzed by quantitative PCR. Two patterns of bone formation were observed, originating from the old bone surface in Group I and from the periosteum in Group II. Bone volume (BV) and bone mineral density (BMD) significantly increased up to the 2-month consolidation period within the groups (p < 0.05). Significantly more bone was observed in Group II compared to Group I at the 2-month consolidation period (p < 0.001). Expression of transcripts encoding osteogenic genes in bone depended on the time-point of observation (p < 0.05). Low level of transcripts reveals an indirect role of periosteum in the osteogenic process. Two protocols of periosteal distraction in the present model resulted in moderate differences in terms of bone formation.

T-cell reprogramming through targeted CD4-coreceptor and T-cell receptor expression on maturing thymocytes by latent Circoviridae family member porcine circovirus type 2 cell infections in the thymus

Although porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2)-associated diseases have been evaluated for known immune evasion strategies, the pathogenicity of these viruses remained concealed for decades. Surprisingly, the same viruses that cause panzootics in livestock are widespread in young, unaffected animals. Recently, evidence has emerged that circovirus-like viruses are also linked to complex diseases in humans, including children. We detected PCV2 genome-carrying cells in fetal pig thymi. To elucidate virus pathogenicity, we developed a new pig infection model by in vivo transfection of recombinant PCV2 and the immunosuppressant cofactor cyclosporine A. Using flow cytometry, immunofluorescence and fluorescence in situ hybridization, we found evidence that PCV2 dictates positive and negative selection of maturing T cells in the thymus. We show for the first time that PCV2-infected cells reside at the corticomedullary junction of the thymus. In diseased animals, we found polyclonal deletion of single positive cells (SPs) that may result from a loss of major histocompatibility complex class-II expression at the corticomedullary junction. The percentage of PCV2 antigen-presenting cells correlated with the degree of viremia and, in turn, the severity of the defect in thymocyte maturation. Moreover, the reversed T-cell receptor/CD4-coreceptor expression dichotomy on thymocytes at the CD4(+)CD8(interm) and CD4SP cell stage is viremia-dependent, resulting in a specific hypo-responsiveness of T-helper cells. We compare our results with the only other better-studied member of Circoviridae, chicken anemia virus. Our data show that PCV2 infection leads to thymocyte selection dysregulation, adding a valuable dimension to our understanding of virus pathogenicity.

Use of Calcium Channel Blockers is Associated with Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND/AIMS The use of antihypertensive medicines has been shown to reduce proteinuria, morbidity, and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A specific recommendation for a class of antihypertensive drugs is not available in this population, despite the pharmacodynamic differences. We have therefore analysed the association between antihypertensive medicines and survival of patients with chronic kidney disease. METHODS Out of 2687 consecutive patients undergoing kidney biopsy a cohort of 606 subjects with retrievable medical therapy was included into the analysis. Kidney function was assessed by glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation at the time point of kidney biopsy. Main outcome variable was death. RESULTS Overall 114 (18.7%) patients died. In univariate regression analysis the use of alpha-blockers and calcium channel antagonists, progression of disease, diabetes mellitus (DM) type 1 and 2, arterial hypertension, coronary heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, male sex and age were associated with mortality (all p<0.05). In a multivariate Cox regression model the use of calcium channel blockers (HR 1.89), age (HR 1.04), DM type 1 (HR 8.43) and DM type 2 (HR 2.17) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 1.66) were associated with mortality (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSION The use of calcium channel blockers but not of other antihypertensive medicines is associated with mortality in primarily GN patients with CKD.

Effectiveness of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of pain in knee and hip osteoarthritis: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the backbone of osteoarthritis pain management. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of different preparations and doses of NSAIDs on osteoarthritis pain in a network meta-analysis. METHODS For this network meta-analysis, we considered randomised trials comparing any of the following interventions: NSAIDs, paracetamol, or placebo, for the treatment of osteoarthritis pain. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the reference lists of relevant articles for trials published between Jan 1, 1980, and Feb 24, 2015, with at least 100 patients per group. The prespecified primary and secondary outcomes were pain and physical function, and were extracted in duplicate for up to seven timepoints after the start of treatment. We used an extension of multivariable Bayesian random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons with a random effect at the level of trials. For the primary analysis, a random walk of first order was used to account for multiple follow-up outcome data within a trial. Preparations that used different total daily dose were considered separately in the analysis. To assess a potential dose-response relation, we used preparation-specific covariates assuming linearity on log relative dose. FINDINGS We identified 8973 manuscripts from our search, of which 74 randomised trials with a total of 58 556 patients were included in this analysis. 23 nodes concerning seven different NSAIDs or paracetamol with specific daily dose of administration or placebo were considered. All preparations, irrespective of dose, improved point estimates of pain symptoms when compared with placebo. For six interventions (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 30 mg/day, 60 mg/day, and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 mg/day and 50 mg/day), the probability that the difference to placebo is at or below a prespecified minimum clinically important effect for pain reduction (effect size [ES] -0·37) was at least 95%. Among maximally approved daily doses, diclofenac 150 mg/day (ES -0·57, 95% credibility interval [CrI] -0·69 to -0·46) and etoricoxib 60 mg/day (ES -0·58, -0·73 to -0·43) had the highest probability to be the best intervention, both with 100% probability to reach the minimum clinically important difference. Treatment effects increased as drug dose increased, but corresponding tests for a linear dose effect were significant only for celecoxib (p=0·030), diclofenac (p=0·031), and naproxen (p=0·026). We found no evidence that treatment effects varied over the duration of treatment. Model fit was good, and between-trial heterogeneity and inconsistency were low in all analyses. All trials were deemed to have a low risk of bias for blinding of patients. Effect estimates did not change in sensitivity analyses with two additional statistical models and accounting for methodological quality criteria in meta-regression analysis. INTERPRETATION On the basis of the available data, we see no role for single-agent paracetamol for the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis irrespective of dose. We provide sound evidence that diclofenac 150 mg/day is the most effective NSAID available at present, in terms of improving both pain and function. Nevertheless, in view of the safety profile of these drugs, physicians need to consider our results together with all known safety information when selecting the preparation and dose for individual patients. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405340-104762) and Arco Foundation, Switzerland.

Pond-Breeding Amphibian Species Distributions in a Beaver-Modified Landscape, Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine

In order to maintain pond-breeding amphibian species richness, it is important to understand how both natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect species assemblages and individual species distributions both at the scale of individual ponds and at a larger landscape scale. The goal of this project was to investigate what characteristics of ponds and the surrounding wetland landscape were most effective in predicting pond-breeding species richness and the individual occurrence of wood frog (Rana sylvatica), bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) and pickerel frog (Rana palustris) breeding sites in a beaver-modified landscape and how this landscape has changed over time. The wetland landscape of Acadia National Park was historically modified by the natural disturbance cycles of beaver (Castor cazadensis), and since their reintroduction to the island in 1921, beaver have played a large role in creating and maintaining palustrine wetlands. In 2000 and 2001, I studied pond-breeding amphibian assemblages at 71 palustrine wetlands in Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine. I determined breeding presence of 7 amphibian species and quantified 15 variables describing local pond conditions and characteristics of the wetland landscape. I developed a priori models to predict sites with high amphibian species and used model selection with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to identify important variables. Single species models were also developed to predict wood frog, bullfrog and pickerel frogs breeding presence. The variables for wetland connectivity by stream corridors and the presence of beaver disturbance were the most effective variables to predict sites with high amphibian richness. Wood frog breeding was best predicted by local scale variables describing temporary, fishless wetlands and the absence of active beaver disturbance. Abandoned beaver sites provided wood frog breeding habitat (70%) in a similar proportion to that found in non beaver-influenced sites (79%). In contrast, bullfrog breeding presence was limited to active beaver wetlands with fish and permanent water, and 80% of breeding sites were large (≥2ha in size). Pickerel frog breeding site selection was predicted best by the connectivity of sites in the landscape by stream corridors. Models including the presence of beaver disturbance, greater wetland perimeter and greater depth were included in the confidence set of pickerel frog models but showed considerably less support. Analysis of historic aerial photographs showed an 89% increase in the total number of ponded wetlands available in the landscape between the years of 1944 and 1997. Beaver colonization generally converted forested wetlands and riparian areas to open water and emergent wetlands. Temporal colonization of beaver wetlands favored large sites low in the watersheds and sites that were impounded later were generally smaller, higher in the watershed, and more likely to be abandoned. These results suggest that beaver have not only increased the number of available breeding sites in the landscape for pond-breeding amphibians, but the resulting mosaic of active and abandoned beaver wetlands also provides suitable breeding habitat for species with differing habitat requirements.

Environmental and Endogenous Factors Influencing Emigration in Juvenile Anadromous Alewives

We analyzed juvenile anadromous alewife migration at Bride Lake, a coastal lake in Connecticut, during summer 2006 and found that migration on 24-hour and seasonal timescales was influenced by conditions of the environment and characteristics of the individual. To identify environmental cues of juvenile migration, we continuously video recorded fish at the lake outflow and employed information-theoretic model selection to identify the best predictors of daily migration rate. More than 80% of the approximately 320,000 juveniles that migrated from mid-June to mid-August departed in three pulses lasting one or two days. Pulses of migration were associated with precipitation events, transient decreases in water temperature and transient increases in stream discharge. Diel timing of migration shifted over the summer. Early in the season most migration occurred around dawn; late in the season migration occurred at night. To identify individual characteristics associated with migratory behavior, we compared migrating juveniles that we collected as they were exiting Bride Lake to non-migrating juveniles that we collected from the center of the lake. Migrants were a non-random subset of the population; they were on average 1 – 12 mm larger, 2 – 14 d older, had grown more rapidly (11% greater length-at-age), and were in better condition (14% greater mass-at-length) than non-migrant fish. We infer that the amount of accumulated energy has a positive effect on the net benefit of migration at any time in the migratory season.

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^