Validating the Mainstream Success Index

This paper seeks to evaluate and validate the efficiency of the Mainstream Success Index.

Development of a simple index to predict benefit and satisfaction from amplification

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of non-audiological patient-based variables; amount of bother, importance of improved hearing, and expectations, as reliable predictors of benefit and satisfaction from amplification. Study findings were then used to develop two initial prognostic indices.

Construction of a historical Water Pollution Index for the Mersey Basin

The Mersey Basin has been significantly polluted for over 200 years. However, there is a lack of quantitative historical water quality data as effective water quality monitoring and data recording only began 30-40 years ago. This paper assesses water pollution in the Mersey Basin using a Water Pollution Index constructed from social and economic data. Methodology, output and the difficulties involved with validation are discussed. With the limited data input available the index approximately reproduces historical water quality. The paper illustrates how historical studies of environmental water quality may provide valuable identification of factors responsible for pollution and a marker set for contemporary and future water quality issues in the context of the past. This is an issue of growing research interest.

A reconstructed Siberian High index since A. D. 1599 from Eurasian and North American tree rings

The long-term variability of the Siberian High, the dominant Northern Hemisphere anticyclone during winter, is largely unknown. To investigate how this feature varied prior to the instrumental record, we present a reconstruction of a Dec-Feb Siberian High (SH) index based on Eurasian and North American tree rings. Spanning 1599-1980, it provides information on SH variability over the past four centuries. A decline in the instrumental SH index since the late 1970s, related to Eurasian warming, is the most striking feature over the past four hundred years. It is associated with a highly significant (p < 0.0001) step change in 1989. Significant similar to 3-4 yr spectral peaks in the reconstruction fall within the range of variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (which has also declined recently) and lend further support to proposed relationships between these largescale features of the climate system.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Greening the United Nations' Human Development Index?

The Human Development Index (HDI) introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990 has helped facilitate widespread debate amongst development researchers, practitioners and policy makers. The HDI is an aggregate index, calculated on an annual basis by the UNDP and published in its Human Development Reports, comprising measures of three components deemed by them to be central to development: W income (the gross domestic product per capita), (ii) education (adult literacy rate) and (iii) health (life expectancy at birth). The results of calculating the HDI are typically presented as country/regional league tables, and provide a quick means for policy makers and others to judge performance. Perhaps partly because of the relative simplicity of the index, the HDI has managed to achieve a level of acceptance and use amongst politicians and policy makers that has yet to emerge with any indicator of sustainability. Indeed, despite its existence for 11 years, including nine years after the Rio Earth Summit, the HDI has not even been modified to take on board wider issues of sustainability. This paper will critically examine the potential for 'greening' the HDI so as to include environmental and resource-consumption dimensions. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

For better or for worse, till the human development index do us part?

This paper describes the results of research intended to explore the volatility inherent in the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI is intended to be a simple and transparent device for comparing progress in human development, and is an aggregate of life expectancy, education and GDP per capita. Values of the HDI for each country are presented in the Human Development Reports (HDRs), the first being published in 1990. However, while the methodology is consistent for all countries in each year there are notable differences between years that make temporal comparisons of progress difficult. The paper presents the results of recalculating the HDI for a simplified sample of 114 countries using various methodologies employed by the UNDP. The results are a set of deviations of recalculated HDI ranks compared to the original ranks given in the HDRs. The volatility that can result from such recalculation is shown to be substantial (+/-10-15 ranks), yet reports in the popular press are frequently sensitive to movements of only a few ranks. Such movement can easily be accounted for by changes in the HDI methodology rather than genuine progress in human development. While the HDRs often carry warnings about the inadvisability of such year-on-year comparisons, it is argued that the existence of such a high-profile index and the overt presentation within league tables do encourage such comparison. Assuming that the HDI will be retained as a focal point within the HDRs, then it is suggested that greater focus be upon more meaningful and robust categories of human development (e.g. low, medium and high) rather than league tables where shifts of a few places, perhaps as a result of nothing more than a methodological or data artefact, may be highlighted in the press and by policy makers. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Using aircraft measurements to determine the refractive index of Saharan dust during the DODO Experiments

Much uncertainty in the value of the imaginary part of the refractive index of mineral dust contributes to uncertainty in the radiative effect of mineral dust in the atmosphere. A synthesis of optical, chemical and physical in-situ aircraft measurements from the DODO experiments during February and August 2006 are used to calculate the refractive index mineral dust encountered over West Africa. Radiative transfer modeling and measurements of broadband shortwave irradiance at a range of altitudes are used to test and validate these calculations for a specific dust event on 23 August 2006 over Mauritania. Two techniques are used to determine the refractive index: firstly a method combining measurements of scattering, absorption, size distributions and Mie code simulations, and secondly a method using composition measured on filter samples to apportion the content of internally mixed quartz, calcite and iron oxide-clay aggregates, where the iron oxide is represented by either hematite or goethite and clay by either illite or kaolinite. The imaginary part of the refractive index at 550 nm (ni550) is found to range between 0.0001 i to 0.0046 i, and where filter samples are available, agreement between methods is found depending on mineral combination assumed. The refractive indices are also found to agree well with AERONET data where comparisons are possible. ni550 is found to vary with dust source, which is investigated with the NAME model for each case. The relationship between both size distribution and ni550 on the accumulation mode single scattering albedo at 550 nm (ω0550) are examined and size distribution is found to have no correlation to ω0550, while ni550 shows a strong linear relationship with ω0550. Radiative transfer modeling was performed with different models (Mie-derived refractive indices, but also filter sampling composition assuming both internal and external mixing). Our calculations indicate that Mie-derived values of ni550 and the externally mixed dust where the iron oxide-clay aggregate corresponds to the goethite-kaolinite combination result in the best agreement with irradiance measurements. The radiative effect of the dust is found to be very sensitive to the mineral combination (and hence refractive index) assumed, and to whether the dust is assumed to be internally or externally mixed.

Calculating the exclusion probability and paternity index for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of substructure

There has been recent interest in the use of X-chromosomal loci for forensic and relatedness testing casework, with many authors developing new X-linked short tandem repeat (STR) loci suitable for forensic use. Here we present formulae for two key quantities in paternity testing, the average probability of exclusion and the paternity index, which are suitable for Xchromosomal loci in the presence of population substructure.