The euro crisis: ten roots, but fewer solutions. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/17, October 2012

Many factors have contributed to the euro crisis. Some have been addressed by policymakers, even if belatedly, and European Union member states have been willing to improve the functioning of the euro area by agreeing to relinquish national sovereignty in some important areas. However, the most pressing issue threatening the integrity, even the existence, of the euro, has not been addressed: the deepening economic contraction in southern euro-area member states. The common interest lies in preserving the integrity of the euro area and in offering these countries improved prospects. Domestic structural reform and appropriate fiscal consolidation, wage increases and slower fiscal consolidation in economically stronger euro-area countries, a weaker euro exchange rate, debt restructuring and an investment programme should be part of the arsenal. In the medium term, more institutional change will be necessary to complement the planned overhaul of the euro area institutional framework. This will include the deployment of a euro-area economic stabilising tool, managing the overall fiscal stance of the euro area, some form of Eurobonds and measures to make euro-area level decision making bodies more effective and democratically legitimate.

The EU budget becomes politically more explosive. CEPS Commentary, 3 December 2012

H. Onno Ruding describes the negotiations on the EU budget, which will resume in 2013 following their collapse in late November, as “more awkward than usual”. In this new CEPS Commentary, he advises EU leaders to make the instrument more forward-looking in promoting economic growth in Europe and less focused on maintaining legacy entitlements of past years. In his view, this means more spending on research, innovation, education and infrastructure and also requires further reductions in the still-dominant agricultural subsidies as well as regional and structural funds.

Conducting nanofibres produced by electrospinning

Electrospun fibres based on polypyrrole have been prepared. The incorporation of preformed polypyrrole into fibres electrospun from a carrier polymer can only be achieved when materials are prepared with particulates smaller than the cross-section of the fibre; even so there are some problems, with the substantial loss of material from the electrode tip. As an alternative approach, soluble polypyrroles can be prepared but these are not of sufficient viscosity to prepare electrospun fibres, once again a carrier polymer must be employed. More effective loadings are gained by the process of coating the outer surface of a pre-spun fibre; in this way electrospun fibres coated with polypyrrole can be prepared. This approach has been adapted to produce silver coated polymer fibres by the use of copolymers of styrene and 3-vinyl benzaldehyde.

Quantifying the effect of buffer zones, crop areas and spatial aggregation on the externalities of genetically modified crops at landscape level

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The state of veterinary epidemiology and economics

Recent developments in the fields of veterinary epidemiology and economics are critically reviewed and assessed. The impacts of recent technological developments in diagnosis, genetic characterisation, data processing and statistical analysis are evaluated. It is concluded that the acquisition and availability of data remains the principal constraint to the application of available techniques in veterinary epidemiology and economics, especially at population level. As more commercial producers use computerised management systems, the availability of data for analysis within herds is improving. However, consistency of recording and diagnosis remains problematic. Recent trends to the development of national livestock databases intended to provide reassurance to consumers of the safety and traceability of livestock products are potentially valuable sources of data that could lead to much more effective application of veterinary epidemiology and economics. These opportunities will be greatly enhanced if data from different sources, such as movement recording, official animal health programmes, quality assurance schemes, production recording and breed societies can be integrated. However, in order to realise such integrated databases, it will be necessary to provide absolute control of user access to guarantee data security and confidentiality. The potential applications of integrated livestock databases in analysis, modelling, decision-support, and providing management information for veterinary services and livestock producers are discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategies, effectiveness and rationale of vector-borne disease control in the pastoralist system of south-western Uganda

In Uganda, control of vector-borne diseases is mainly in form of vector control, and chemotherapy. There have been reports that acaricides are being misused in the pastoralist systems in Uganda. This is because of the belief by scientists that intensive application of acaricide is uneconomical and unsustainable particularly in the indigenous cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the strategies, rationale and effectiveness of vector-borne disease control by pastoralists. To systematically carry out these investigations, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was used, in both the collection and the analysis of data. Cattle keepers were found to control tick-borne diseases (TBDs) mainly through spraying, in contrast with the control of trypanosomosis for which the main method of control was by chemotherapy. The majority of herders applied acaricides weekly and used an acaricide of lower strength than recommended by the manufacturers. They used very little acaricide wash, and spraying was preferred to dipping. Furthermore, pastoralists either treated sick animals themselves or did nothing at all, rather than using veterinary personnel. Oxytetracycline (OTC) was the drug commonly used in the treatment of TBDs. Nevertheless, although pastoralists may not have been following recommended practices in their control of ticks and tick-borne diseases, they were neither wasteful nor uneconomical and their methods appeared to be effective. Trypanosomosis was not a problem either in Sembabule or Mbarara district. Those who used trypanocides were found to use more drugs than were necessary.

Plant-pollinator biodiversity and pollination services in a complex Mediterranean landscape

Mediterranean landscapes comprise a complex mosaic of different habitats that vary in the diversity of their floral communities, pollinator communities and pollination services. Using the Greek Island of Lesvos as a model system, we assess the biodiversity value of six common habitats and measure ecosystemic 'health' using pollen grain deposition in three core flowering plants as a measure of pollination services. Three fire-driven habitats were assessed: freshly burnt areas, fully regenerated pine forests and intermediate age scrub; in addition we examined oak woodlands, actively managed olive groves and groves that had been abandoned from agriculture. Oak woodlands, pine forests and managed olive groves had the highest diversity of bees. The habitat characteristics responsible for structuring bee communities were: floral diversity, floral abundance, nectar energy availability and the variety of nectar resources present. Pollination services in two of our plant species, which were pollinated by a limited sub-set of the pollinator community, indicated that pollination levels were highest in the burnt and mature pine habitats. The third species, which was open to all flower visitors, indicated that oak woodlands had the highest levels of pollination from generalist species. Pollination was always more effective in managed olive groves than in abandoned groves. However, the two most common species of bee, the honeybee and a bumblebee, were not the primary pollinators within these habitats. We conclude that the three habitats of greatest overall value for plant-pollinator communities and provision of the healthiest pollination services are pine forests, oak woodland and managed olive groves. We indicate how the highest value habitats may be maintained in a complex landscape to safeguard and enhance pollination function within these habitats and potentially in adjoining agricultural areas. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Floral volatiles controlling ant behaviour

P>1. Ants show complex interactions with plants, both facultative and mutualistic, ranging from grazers through seed predators and dispersers to herders of some herbivores and guards against others. But ants are rarely pollinators, and their visits to flowers may be detrimental to plant fitness. 2. Plants therefore have various strategies to control ant distributions, and restrict them to foliage rather than flowers. These 'filters' may involve physical barriers on or around flowers, or 'decoys and bribes' sited on the foliage (usually extrafloral nectaries - EFNs). Alternatively, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are used as signals to control ant behaviour, attracting ants to leaves and/or deterring them from functional flowers. Some of the past evidence that flowers repel ants by VOCs has been equivocal and we describe the shortcomings of some experimental approaches, which involve behavioural tests in artificial conditions. 3. We review our previous study of myrmecophytic acacias, which used in situ experiments to show that volatiles derived from pollen can specifically and transiently deter ants during dehiscence, the effects being stronger in ant-guarded species and more effective on resident ants, both in African and Neotropical species. In these plants, repellence involves at least some volatiles that are known components of ant alarm pheromones, but are not repellent to beneficial bee visitors. 4. We also present new evidence of ant repellence by VOCs in temperate flowers, which is usually pollen-based and active on common European ants. We use these data to indicate that across a wide range of plants there is an apparent trade-off in ant-controlling filter strategies between the use of defensive floral volatiles and the alternatives of decoying EFNs or physical barriers.

Gaining acceptability for the Bayesian decision-theoretic approach in dose-escalation studies

There has recently been increasing demand for better designs to conduct first-into-man dose-escalation studies more efficiently, more accurately and more quickly. The authors look into the Bayesian decision-theoretic approach and use simulation as a tool to investigate the impact of compromises with conventional practice that might make the procedures more acceptable for implementation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials: a review of methods used in practice

Background: Meta-analyses based on individual patient data (IPD) are regarded as the gold standard for systematic reviews. However, the methods used for analysing and presenting results from IPD meta-analyses have received little discussion. Methods We review 44 IPD meta-analyses published during the years 1999–2001. We summarize whether they obtained all the data they sought, what types of approaches were used in the analysis, including assumptions of common or random effects, and how they examined the effects of covariates. Results: Twenty-four out of 44 analyses focused on time-to-event outcomes, and most analyses (28) estimated treatment effects within each trial and then combined the results assuming a common treatment effect across trials. Three analyses failed to stratify by trial, analysing the data is if they came from a single mega-trial. Only nine analyses used random effects methods. Covariate-treatment interactions were generally investigated by subgrouping patients. Seven of the meta-analyses included data from less than 80% of the randomized patients sought, but did not address the resulting potential biases. Conclusions: Although IPD meta-analyses have many advantages in assessing the effects of health care, there are several aspects that could be further developed to make fuller use of the potential of these time-consuming projects. In particular, IPD could be used to more fully investigate the influence of covariates on heterogeneity of treatment effects, both within and between trials. The impact of heterogeneity, or use of random effects, are seldom discussed. There is thus considerable scope for enhancing the methods of analysis and presentation of IPD meta-analysis.

Owls and rabbits: predation against substandard individuals of an easy prey

The interactions among the multiple factors regulating predator-prey relationships make predation a more complex process than previously thought. The degree to which substandard individuals are captured disproportionately seems to be better a function of the difficulty of prey capture than of the hunting techniques (coursing vs. ambushing predators). That is, when the capture and killing of a prey species is easy, substandard individuals will be predated in proportion to their occurrence in the prey population. In the present study, we made use of eagle owls Bubo bubo and their main prey, the rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus: (a) the brightness of the white tails of rabbits seems to be correlated with the physical condition of individuals, (b) by using the tails of predated rabbits as an index of individual condition, we found that eagle owls seem to prefer substandard individuals (characterized by duller tails), and (c) by using information from continuous radiotracking of 14 individuals, we suggest that the difficulty of rabbit capture could be low. Although the relative benefits of preying on substandard individuals should considerably decrease when a predator is attacking an easy prey, we hypothesise that the eagle owl preference for substandard individuals could be due to the easy detection of poor individuals by a visual cue, the brightness of the rabbit tail. Several elements allow us to believe that this form of visual communication between a prey and one of its main predators could be more widespread than previously thought. In fact: (a) visual signalling plays a relevant role in intraspecific communication in eagle owls and, consequently, visual signals could also play a role in interspecific interactions, and (b) empirical studies showed that signals may inform the predator that it has been perceived, or that the prey is in a sufficiently healthy state to elude the predator.

Methodological rigour in assessing participatory development

There have been few rigorous assessments of the effectiveness of participatory processes for natural resource management. In Bangladesh an approach known as Participatory Action Plan Development (PAPD) has been developed and applied. By combining problem identification and solution analysis by separate stakeholder groups with plenary sessions it is claimed to result in consensus and more effective community based management. Methodological issues in assessing the effectiveness of such development are discussed and good practice illustrated. Under the same project there were sites where PAPD had been used and others without its use so a comparative assessment could be made. However, for an appropriate assessment it is important to identify clear testable hypotheses regarding the expected benefits, appropriate measures, and other factors which may affect or confound the outcome. The paper illustrates how participatory assessment involving both individual opinions and focus groups can be systematically recorded, quantified and used with other data in statistical analysis. By using statistical modelling methods at an appropriate level of aggregation and controlling for other factors, benefits from PAPD were found to be significant. The systematic approaches and practices recommended from this example can be applied in similar situations to test the effectiveness of participatory processes using participatory assessments.

Perceptual compensation for reverberation in speech identification: effects of single-band, multiple-band and wideband noise contexts

Perceptual effects of room reverberation on a "sir" or "stir" test-word can be observed when the level of reverberation in the word is increased, while the reverberation in a surrounding 'context I utterance remains at a minimal level. The result is that listeners make more "sit" identifications. When the context's reverberation is also increased, to approach the level in the test word, extrinsic perceptual compensation is observed, so that the number of listeners' "sir" identifications reduces to a value similar to that found with minimal reverberation. Thus far, compensation effects have only been observed with speech or speech-like contexts in which the short-term spectrum changes as the speaker's articulators move. The results reported here show that some noise contexts with static short-term spectra can also give rise to compensation. From these experiments it would appear that compensation requires a context with a temporal envelope that fluctuates to some extent, so that parts of it resemble offsets. These findings are consistent with a rather general kind of perceptual compensation mechanism; one that is informed by the 'tails' that reverberation adds at offsets. Other results reported here show that narrow-band contexts do not bring about compensation, even when their temporal-envelopes are the same as those of the more effective wideband contexts. These results suggest that compensation is confined to the frequency range occupied by the context, and that in a wideband sound it might operate in a 'band by band' manner.

Case Study: Interacting with Volumetric Medical Datasets in Networked CAVE Environments

Virtual Reality (VR) is widely used in visualizing medical datasets. This interest has emerged due to the usefulness of its techniques and features. Such features include immersion, collaboration, and interactivity. In a medical visualization context, immersion is important, because it allows users to interact directly and closelywith detailed structures in medical datasets. Collaboration on the other hand is beneficial, because it gives medical practitioners the chance to share their expertise and offer feedback and advice in a more effective and intuitive approach. Interactivity is crucial in medical visualization and simulation systems, because responsiveand instantaneous actions are key attributes in applications, such as surgical simulations. In this paper we present a case study that investigates the use of VR in a collaborative networked CAVE environment from a medical volumetric visualization perspective. The study will present a networked CAVE application, which has been built to visualize and interact with volumetric datasets. We will summarize the advantages of such an application and the potential benefits of our system. We also will describe the aspects related to this application area and the relevant issues of such implementations.