Estimadores bayesianos de la fiabilidad con muestreo censurado

El estudio de la fiabilidad de componentes y sistemas tiene gran importancia en diversos campos de la ingenieria, y muy concretamente en el de la informatica. Al analizar la duracion de los elementos de la muestra hay que tener en cuenta los elementos que no fallan en el tiempo que dure el experimento, o bien los que fallen por causas distintas a la que es objeto de estudio. Por ello surgen nuevos tipos de muestreo que contemplan estos casos. El mas general de ellos, el muestreo censurado, es el que consideramos en nuestro trabajo. En este muestreo tanto el tiempo hasta que falla el componente como el tiempo de censura son variables aleatorias. Con la hipotesis de que ambos tiempos se distribuyen exponencialmente, el profesor Hurt estudio el comportamiento asintotico del estimador de maxima verosimilitud de la funcion de fiabilidad. En principio parece interesante utilizar metodos Bayesianos en el estudio de la fiabilidad porque incorporan al analisis la informacion a priori de la que se dispone normalmente en problemas reales. Por ello hemos considerado dos estimadores Bayesianos de la fiabilidad de una distribucion exponencial que son la media y la moda de la distribucion a posteriori. Hemos calculado la expansion asint6tica de la media, varianza y error cuadratico medio de ambos estimadores cuando la distribuci6n de censura es exponencial. Hemos obtenido tambien la distribucion asintotica de los estimadores para el caso m3s general de que la distribucion de censura sea de Weibull. Dos tipos de intervalos de confianza para muestras grandes se han propuesto para cada estimador. Los resultados se han comparado con los del estimador de maxima verosimilitud, y con los de dos estimadores no parametricos: limite producto y Bayesiano, resultando un comportamiento superior por parte de uno de nuestros estimadores. Finalmente nemos comprobado mediante simulacion que nuestros estimadores son robustos frente a la supuesta distribuci6n de censura, y que uno de los intervalos de confianza propuestos es valido con muestras pequenas. Este estudio ha servido tambien para confirmar el mejor comportamiento de uno de nuestros estimadores. SETTING OUT AND SUMMARY OF THE THESIS When we study the lifetime of components it's necessary to take into account the elements that don't fail during the experiment, or those that fail by reasons which are desirable to exclude from consideration. The model of random censorship is very usefull for analysing these data. In this model the time to failure and the time censor are random variables. We obtain two Bayes estimators of the reliability function of an exponential distribution based on randomly censored data. We have calculated the asymptotic expansion of the mean, variance and mean square error of both estimators, when the censor's distribution is exponential. We have obtained also the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the more general case of censor's Weibull distribution. Two large-sample confidence bands have been proposed for each estimator. The results have been compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator, and with those of two non parametric estimators: Product-limit and Bayesian. One of our estimators has the best behaviour. Finally we have shown by simulation, that our estimators are robust against the assumed censor's distribution, and that one of our intervals does well in small sample situation.

Pinus uncinata Ramond ex DC.: Conservation and proposal of management at its southwestern limit of distribution (Castillo de Vinuesa, Soria, Spain)

Pinus uncinata forms forests in the centre and southwest of the Alps and in the subalpine Pyrenees (at around 1700 – 2600 m) (Costa Tenorio et al., 1997). The species reaches the southwestern limit of its distribution at the top of Mount Castillo de Vinuesa (Soria, Spain). The small population on this mountain occupies just 66 ha, but is very important from a geobotanical viewpoint since it is just one of two populations (the other being in the Sierra de Gúdar range in Teruel, Spain) isolated from the main area where the species is found in the Iberian Peninsula (The Pyrenees)

Obtaining carbonation depth of concrete used two different procedures standard EHE-08

In the Standard EHE 08, for the first time, durability acquires the status of Limit State. Article 8 provides that the term Durability limit state, produced by physical and chemical actions, different loads and actions of structural analysis, which can degrade the concrete and reinforcement to unacceptable limits. The verification of this limit state can be done through a procedure set out in the provisions of the Standard. This procedure is based on the use of tables that, depending on the aggressiveness of the environment in which the structure is the concrete strength and the life of the project, setting the quality of the concrete cover (minimum thickness and maximum water cement ratio of concrete used) and the maximum crack width. This procedure, simple in its application, provides highly secure solutions. In addition, on Annex 9, the Standard EHE 08 offers models for testing the durability limit state in cases of corrosion of reinforcement due to carbonation of concrete or entry of chloride ions. The results obtained with these models are tighter than those obtained with the procedure of the articles. In this paper we use both methods in the study of reinforced concrete structures with potential problems of corrosion of reinforcement due to carbonation of concrete. Later checking the results obtained by both procedures. Results demonstrate that the use of the models listed in Annex 9 of Standard EHE 08 offer cheaper solutions than those obtained using the procedure of the articles