Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous perturbation methods for adaptive labor staffing in service systems

We consider the problem of optimizing the workforce of a service system. Adapting the staffing levels in such systems is non-trivial due to large variations in workload and the large number of system parameters do not allow for a brute force search. Further, because these parameters change on a weekly basis, the optimization should not take longer than a few hours. Our aim is to find the optimum staffing levels from a discrete high-dimensional parameter set, that minimizes the long run average of the single-stage cost function, while adhering to the constraints relating to queue stability and service-level agreement (SLA) compliance. The single-stage cost function balances the conflicting objectives of utilizing workers better and attaining the target SLAs. We formulate this problem as a constrained parameterized Markov cost process parameterized by the (discrete) staffing levels. We propose novel simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA)-based algorithms for solving the above problem. The algorithms include both first-order as well as second-order methods and incorporate SPSA-based gradient/Hessian estimates for primal descent, while performing dual ascent for the Lagrange multipliers. Both algorithms are online and update the staffing levels in an incremental fashion. Further, they involve a certain generalized smooth projection operator, which is essential to project the continuous-valued worker parameter tuned by our algorithms onto the discrete set. The smoothness is necessary to ensure that the underlying transition dynamics of the constrained Markov cost process is itself smooth (as a function of the continuous-valued parameter): a critical requirement to prove the convergence of both algorithms. We validate our algorithms via performance simulations based on data from five real-life service systems. For the sake of comparison, we also implement a scatter search based algorithm using state-of-the-art optimization tool-kit OptQuest. From the experiments, we observe that both our algorithms converge empirically and consistently outperform OptQuest in most of the settings considered. This finding coupled with the computational advantage of our algorithms make them amenable for adaptive labor staffing in real-life service systems.

An Optical How Feature and McFIS Based Approach for 3-Dimensional Human Action Recognition

We propose to develop a 3-D optical flow features based human action recognition system. Optical flow based features are employed here since they can capture the apparent movement in object, by design. Moreover, they can represent information hierarchically from local pixel level to global object level. In this work, 3-D optical flow based features a re extracted by combining the 2-1) optical flow based features with the depth flow features obtained from depth camera. In order to develop an action recognition system, we employ a Meta-Cognitive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (McFIS). The m of McFIS is to find the decision boundary separating different classes based on their respective optical flow based features. McFIS consists of a neuro-fuzzy inference system (cognitive component) and a self-regulatory learning mechanism (meta-cognitive component). During the supervised learning, self-regulatory learning mechanism monitors the knowledge of the current sample with respect to the existing knowledge in the network and controls the learning by deciding on sample deletion, sample learning or sample reserve strategies. The performance of the proposed action recognition system was evaluated on a proprietary data set consisting of eight subjects. The performance evaluation with standard support vector machine classifier and extreme learning machine indicates improved performance of McFIS is recognizing actions based of 3-D optical flow based features.

Minimum-Error-Probability CFO Estimation for Multiuser MIMO-OFDM Systems

We consider carrier frequency offset (CFO) estimation in the context of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) systems over noisy frequency-selective wireless channels with both single- and multiuser scenarios. We conceived a new approach for parameter estimation by discretizing the continuous-valued CFO parameter into a discrete set of bins and then invoked detection theory, analogous to the minimum-bit-error-ratio optimization framework for detecting the finite-alphabet received signal. Using this radical approach, we propose a novel CFO estimation method and study its performance using both analytical results and Monte Carlo simulations. We obtain expressions for the variance of the CFO estimation error and the resultant BER degradation with the single- user scenario. Our simulations demonstrate that the overall BER performance of a MIMO-OFDM system using the proposed method is substantially improved for all the modulation schemes considered, albeit this is achieved at increased complexity.

Multiobjective fuzzy optimization for sustainable groundwater management using particle swarm optimization and analytic element method

Groundwater management involves conflicting objectives as maximization of discharge contradicts the criteria of minimum pumping cost and minimum piping cost. In addition, available data contains uncertainties such as market fluctuations, variations in water levels of wells and variations of ground water policies. A fuzzy model is to be evolved to tackle the uncertainties, and a multiobjective optimization is to be conducted to simultaneously satisfy the contradicting objectives. Towards this end, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model is evolved. To get at the upper and lower bounds of the individual objectives, particle Swarm optimization (PSO) is adopted. The analytic element method (AEM) is employed to obtain the operating potentio metric head. In this study, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model considering three conflicting objectives is developed using PSO and AEM methods for obtaining a sustainable groundwater management policy. The developed model is applied to a case study, and it is demonstrated that the compromise solution satisfies all the objectives with adequate levels of satisfaction. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the parameters, and it is shown that the effect of any such variation is quite significant. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intramolecular hydrogen bond: Can it be part of the basis set of valence internal coordinates in normal mode analysis?

It has been shown earlier1] that the relaxed force constants (RFCs) could be used as a measure of bond strength only when the bonds form a part of the complete valence internal coordinates (VIC) basis. However, if the bond is not a part of the complete VIC basis, its RFC is not necessarily a measure of bond strength. Sometimes, it is possible to have a complete VIC basis that does not contain the intramolecular hydrogen bond (IMHB) as part of the basis. This means the RFC of IMHB is not necessarily a measure of bond strength. However, we know that IMHB is a weak bond and hence its RFC has to be a measure of bond strength. We resolve this problem of IMHB not being part of the complete basis by postulating `equivalent' basis sets where IMHB is part of the basis at least in one of the equivalent sets of VIC. As long as a given IMHB appears in one of the equivalent complete VIC basis sets, its RFC could be used as a measure of bond strength parameter.

Training-Based Antenna Selection for PER Minimization: A POMDP Approach

This paper considers the problem of receive antenna selection (AS) in a multiple-antenna communication system having a single radio-frequency (RF) chain. The AS decisions are based on noisy channel estimates obtained using known pilot symbols embedded in the data packets. The goal here is to minimize the average packet error rate (PER) by exploiting the known temporal correlation of the channel. As the underlying channels are only partially observed using the pilot symbols, the problem of AS for PER minimization is cast into a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. Under mild assumptions, the optimality of a myopic policy is established for the two-state channel case. Moreover, two heuristic AS schemes are proposed based on a weighted combination of the estimated channel states on the different antennas. These schemes utilize the continuous valued received pilot symbols to make the AS decisions, and are shown to offer performance comparable to the POMDP approach, which requires one to quantize the channel and observations to a finite set of states. The performance improvement offered by the POMDP solution and the proposed heuristic solutions relative to existing AS training-based approaches is illustrated using Monte Carlo simulations.

Parameterized Algorithms and Kernels for 3-Hitting Set with Parity Constraints

The 3-Hitting Set problem involves a family of subsets F of size at most three over an universe U. The goal is to find a subset of U of the smallest possible size that intersects every set in F. The version of the problem with parity constraints asks for a subset S of size at most k that, in addition to being a hitting set, also satisfies certain parity constraints on the sizes of the intersections of S with each set in the family F. In particular, an odd (even) set is a hitting set that hits every set at either one or three (two) elements, and a perfect code is a hitting set that intersects every set at exactly one element. These questions are of fundamental interest in many contexts for general set systems. Just as for Hitting Set, we find these questions to be interesting for the case of families consisting of sets of size at most three. In this work, we initiate an algorithmic study of these problems in this special case, focusing on a parameterized analysis. We show, for each problem, efficient fixed-parameter tractable algorithms using search trees that are tailor-made to the constraints in question, and also polynomial kernels using sunflower-like arguments in a manner that accounts for equivalence under the additional parity constraints.

Reservoir Operation with Fuzzy State Variables for Irrigation of Multiple Crops

This paper presents the development and application of a stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops. A fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (FSDP) model is developed in which the reservoir storage and soil moisture of the crops are considered as fuzzy numbers, and the reservoir inflow is considered as a stochastic variable. The model is formulated with an objective of minimizing crop yield deficits, resulting in optimal water allocations to the crops by maintaining storage continuity and soil moisture balance. The standard fuzzy arithmetic method is used to solve all arithmetic equations with fuzzy numbers, and the fuzzy ranking method is used to compare two or more fuzzy numbers. The reservoir operation model is integrated with a daily-based water allocation model, which results in daily temporal variations of allocated water, soil moisture, and crop deficits. A case study of an existing Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka, India, is chosen for the model application. The FSDP is a more realistic model because it considers the uncertainty in discretization of state variables. The results obtained using the FSDP model are found to be more acceptable for the case study than those of the classical stochastic dynamic model and the standard operating model, in terms of 10-day releases from the reservoir and evapotranspiration deficit. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Interplay of vector-like top partner multiplets in a realistic mixing set-up

The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the LHC have performed analyses on the existing data sets, studying the case of one vector-like fermion or multiplet coupling to the standard model Yukawa sector. In the near future, with more data available, these experimental collaborations will start to investigate more realistic cases. The presence of more than one extra vector-like multiplet is indeed a common situation in many extensions of the standard model. The interplay of these vector-like multiplet between precision electroweak bounds, flavour and collider phenomenology is a important question in view of establishing bounds or for the discovery of physics beyond the standard model. In this work we study the phenomenological consequences of the presence of two vector-like multiplets. We analyse the constraints on such scenarios from tree-level data and oblique corrections for the case of mixing to each of the SM generations. In the present work, we limit to scenarios with two top-like partners and no mixing in the down-sector.

Hybrid Working Set Algorithm for SVM Learning With a Kernel Coprocessor on FPGA

Support vector machines (SVM) are a popular class of supervised models in machine learning. The associated compute intensive learning algorithm limits their use in real-time applications. This paper presents a fully scalable architecture of a coprocessor, which can compute multiple rows of the kernel matrix in parallel. Further, we propose an extended variant of the popular decomposition technique, sequential minimal optimization, which we call hybrid working set (HWS) algorithm, to effectively utilize the benefits of cached kernel columns and the parallel computational power of the coprocessor. The coprocessor is implemented on Xilinx Virtex 7 field-programmable gate array-based VC707 board and achieves a speedup of upto 25x for kernel computation over single threaded computation on Intel Core i5. An application speedup of upto 15x over software implementation of LIBSVM and speedup of upto 23x over SVMLight is achieved using the HWS algorithm in unison with the coprocessor. The reduction in the number of iterations and sensitivity of the optimization time to variation in cache size using the HWS algorithm are also shown.

Delineation of homogeneous temperature regions: a two-stage clustering approach

Homogeneous temperature regions are necessary for use in hydrometeorological studies. The regions are often delineated by analysing statistics derived from time series of maximum, minimum or mean temperature, rather than attributes influencing temperature. This practice cannot yield meaningful regions in data-sparse areas. Further, independent validation of the delineated regions for homogeneity in temperature is not possible, as temperature records form the basis to arrive at the regions. To address these issues, a two-stage clustering approach is proposed in this study to delineate homogeneous temperature regions. First stage of the approach involves (1) determining correlation structure between observed temperature over the study area and possible predictors (large-scale atmospheric variables) influencing the temperature and (2) using the correlation structure as the basis to delineate sites in the study area into clusters. Second stage of the approach involves analysis on each of the clusters to (1) identify potential predictors (large-scale atmospheric variables) influencing temperature at sites in the cluster and (2) partition the cluster into homogeneous fuzzy temperature regions using the identified potential predictors. Application of the proposed approach to India yielded 28 homogeneous regions that were demonstrated to be effective when compared to an alternate set of 6 regions that were previously delineated over the study area. Intersite cross-correlations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the existing regions were found to be weak and negative for several months, which is undesirable. This problem was not found in the case of regions delineated using the proposed approach. Utility of the proposed regions in arriving at estimates of potential evapotranspiration for ungauged locations in the study area is demonstrated.

Delineation of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions using wavelet-based global fuzzy cluster analysis

Identification of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions (HMRs) is necessary for various applications. Such regions are delineated by various approaches considering rainfall and temperature as two key variables. In conventional approaches, formation of regions is based on principal components (PCs)/statistics/indices determined from time series of the key variables at monthly and seasonal scales. An issue with use of PCs for regionalization is that they have to be extracted from contemporaneous records of hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, delineated regions may not be effective when the available records are limited over contemporaneous time period. A drawback associated with the use of statistics/indices is that they do not provide effective representation of the key variables when the records exhibit non-stationarity. Consequently, the resulting regions may not be effective for the desired purpose. To address these issues, a new approach is proposed in this article. The approach considers information extracted from wavelet transformations of the observed multivariate hydrometeorological time series as the basis for regionalization by global fuzzy c-means clustering procedure. The approach can account for dynamic variability in the time series and its non-stationarity (if any). Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming HMRs is demonstrated by application to India, as there are no prior attempts to form such regions over the country. Drought severity-area-frequency (SAF) curves are constructed corresponding to each of the newly formed regions for the use in regional drought analysis, by considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the drought indicator.

Fuzzy State Real-Time Reservoir Operation Model for Irrigation with Gridded Rainfall Forecasts

A short-term real-time operation model with fuzzy state variables is developed for irrigation of multiple crops based on earlier work on long-term steady-state policy. The features of the model that distinguish it from the earlier work are (1) apart from inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and in soil moisture of crops, spatial variations in rainfall and soil moisture of crops are included in the real-time operation model by considering gridded command area with a grid size of 0.5 degrees latitude by 0.5 degrees longitude; (2) the water allocation model and soil moisture balance equations are integrated with the real-time operation model with consideration of ponding water depth for Paddy crop; the model solution specifies reservoir releases for irrigation in a 10-day time period and allocations among the crops on a daily basis at each grid by maintaining soil moisture balance at the end of the day; and (3) the release policy is developed using forecasted daily rainfall data of each grid and is implemented for the current time period using actual 10-day inflow and actual daily rainfall of each grid. The real-time operation model is applied to Bhadra Reservoir in Karnataka, India. The results obtained using the real-time operation model are compared with those of the standard operating policy model. Inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and soil moisture of crops captures hydrologic uncertainties in real time. Considerations of irrigation decisions on a daily basis and the gridded command area result in variations in allocating water to the crops, variations in actual crop evapotranspiration, and variations in soil moisture of the crops on a daily basis for each grid of the command area. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Fuzzy Approach to Rank Global Climate Models

Eleven coupled model intercomparison project 3 based global climate models are evaluated for the case study of Upper Malaprabha catchment, India for precipitation rate. Correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square deviation, and skill score are considered as performance indicators for evaluation in fuzzy environment and assumed to have equal impact on the global climate models. Fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is used to rank global climate models. Top three positions are occupied by MIROC3, GFDL2.1 and GISS with relative closeness of 0.7867, 0.7070, and 0.7068. IPSL-CM4, NCAR-PCMI occupied the tenth and eleventh positions with relative closeness of 0.4959 and 0.4562.