Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

Health inequalities among the elderly in western Europe

Background: This paper analyses gender inequalities in health status and in social determinants of health among the elderly in Western Europe. Methods: Data came from the first wave of the “Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE, 2004). For the purposes of this study a subsample of community-residing people aged 65-85 years with no paid work was selected (4218 men and 5007 women). Multiple logistic regression models separated by sex and adjusted for age and country were fitted. Results: Women were more likely to report poor health status, limitations in mobility and poor mental health. Whereas in both sexes educational attainment was associated with the three health indicators, household income was only related to poor self-rated health among women. The relationship between living arrangements and health differed by gender and was primarily associated with poor mental health. In both sexes, not living with the partner but living with other people and being the household head was related to poor mental health status (aOR=2.14; 95% CI=1.11-4.14 for men and aOR=1.75; 95% CI=1.12-2.72 for women). Additionally, women living with their partner and other(s) and those living alone were more likely to report poor mental health status (aOR=1.67; 95% CI=1.17-2.41 and aOR=1.58; 95% CI=1.26-1.97, respectively). Conclusions: Health inequalities persist among the elderly. Women have poorer health status than men and in both sexes the risk of poor health status increases among those with low educational attainment. Living arrangements are primarily associated with poor mental health status with patterns that differ by gender.

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

A longitudinal study of environmental tobacco smoke exposure in children: parental self reports versus age dependent biomarkers

Background: Awareness of the negative effects of smoking on children's health prompted a decrease in the self-reporting of parental tobacco use in periodic surveys from most industrialized countries. Our aim is to assess changes between ETS exposure at the end of pregnancy and at 4 years of age determined by the parents' self-report and measurement of cotinine in age related biological matrices.Methods: The prospective birth cohort included 487 infants from Barcelona city (Spain). Mothers were asked about maternal and household smoking habit. Cord serum and children's urinary cotinine were analyzed in duplicate using a double antibody radioimmunoassay. Results: At 4 years of age, the median urinary cotinine level in children increased 1.4 or 3.5 times when father or mother smoked, respectively. Cotinine levels in children's urine statistically differentiated children from smoking mothers (Geometric Mean (GM) 19.7 ng/ml; 95% CI 16.83–23.01) and exposed homes (GM 7.1 ng/ml; 95% CI 5.61–8.99) compared with non-exposed homes (GM 4.5 ng/ml; 95% CI 3.71–5.48). Maternal self-reported ETS exposure in homes declined in the four year span between the two time periods from 42.2% to 31.0% (p < 0.01). Nevertheless, most of the children considered non-exposed by their mothers had detectable levels of cotinine above 1 ng/mL in their urine.Conclusion: We concluded that cotinine levels determined in cord blood and urine, respectively, were useful for categorizing the children exposed to smoking and showed that a certain increase in ETS exposure during the 4-year follow-up period occurred.

Empirical Tests of Impacts of Rationing: The Case of Poland in Transition, February 2000

This study tests the theory of rationing, examining changes in household consumption behavior during the transition to a market economy in Poland, 1987–92. A model of consumption under rationing is developed and fitted to prereform quarterly data from the Polish Household Budget Survey. Virtual prices, prices at which consumers would have voluntarily chosen the rationed levels of goods, are derived for food and housing. The prereform Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with rationing is estimated. Estimates from the virtual AIDS yield plausible values for price and income elasticities. The AIDS model (without rationing) is also fitted to postreform quarterly household survey data for comparison and evaluation. When the two sets of results are compared, the impacts of rationing are consistent with the theory. Own-price elasticities for nonrationed goods are larger after the reform, and there is increased complementarity and decreased substitutability for the nonrationed goods. The results for Poland show a 75 percent decline in real household welfare over the transition and this welfare loss is one-third the value obtained using reported prices.

Lithuania’s Food Demand During Economic Transition, January 2000

The linear approximate version of the AIDS model is estimated using data from the Lithuanian household budget survey covering the period from July 1992 to December 1994. Price and real expenditure elasticities for twelve food groups were estimated based on the estimated coefficients of the model. Very little or nothing is known about the demand parameters of Lithuania and other former socialist countries, so the results are of intrinsic interest. Estimated expenditure elasticities were positive and statistically significant for all food groups while all own-price elasticities were negative and statistically significant, except for that of eggs which was insignificant. Results suggest that Lithuanian household consumption did respond to price and real income changes during their transition to a market-oriented economy.

Unstable equilibrium: young adult women in family and career formation in Southern Europe

The paper examines the relationship between family formation (i.e., living with a partner and having children) and women’s occupational career in southern Europe (i.e., Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain). The relationship is explored by analysing the impact that different family structures and male [nvolvement in caring activities have on women’s early occupational trajectories (i.e., remaining in the same occupational status, experiencing downward or upward mobility, or withdrawing from paid work). This research shows that male involvement in caring activities does not really push women ahead in their career, but the absolute lack of male support seems to negatively affect women’s permanence in paid work. These results apply to all southern European countries except Portugal, where the absolute absence of the partners’ support in caring activities does not seem to alter women’s determination to remain in paid work. The methodology applied consists of the estimation of multinomial logit regression models and the analysis is based on eight waves (1994-2001) of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP).

The impact of labour market status on second and higher-order births. A comparative study of Denmark, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom

This paper investigates the effects of women‘s labour force participation on fertility, as well as the effects of the combined labour force participation of both members of a couple. It specifically focuses on such dimensions as unemployment, earnings, temporary contracts and part-time jobs, and it shows that their effects differ in accordance with national institutions and labour market regulations. Event-history methods and a longitudinal sample of the European Community Household Panel are used in the analyses, concerning the years 1993-2000. The results show that labour market insecurity of one or both members of a couple has a particularly strong impact in reducing birth rates in the Southern European countries studied. The more conventional model of men’s employment combined with housewifery has a positive impact on second or higher order births in United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, while in Denmark the effect is the opposite. These differences are consistent with different national models of combining parental responsibilities and participation by gender across the life course.

Paternal involvement and children's developmental stages in Spain

How does fathering change across children’s developmental stages and how do these changes vary by educational levels and women’s employment? To investigate this, I use the „2003 Spanish Time Use Survey‟ (N = 2,941) for a sample of heterosexual couples with children of different ages. I differentiate between physical (i.e. feeding, supervising, putting children to bed) and interactive child care activities (i.e. speaking to, playing with, teaching the child). Fathers‟ education strongly influences how much fathers participate in physical care in families with preschoolers, a stage in which these activities are particularly important for children’s physical, social, and emotional development. For interactive care, a significant education gradient emerges when the youngest child is aged 3 to 5, when the acquisition of complex linguistic, conceptual, and social skills is critical for later school success. Mother’s employment significantly influences father’s physical child care with preschoolers. This suggests that empowering Spanish women to participate in the labor market promotes gender equity in the household division of child care.

Social bases of changing income distributions

On the backdrop of very little sociological concern with rising income inequality, this paper examines how key changes in sociodemographic behaviour may help shed additional light on changes in household income distribution and especially on long-term income dynamics and inter-generational mobility. The paper argues that the joint effect of rising marital homogamy in terms of human capital and labour supply contributes generally to widen the income gap between households. Only uner very restrictive conditions, namely when the labour supply of low educated women grows dis-proportionally fast, will women's earnings contribute to more equality. Finally, the paper suggests that women's rising employment commitments contribute positively to equalizing the opportunity structure both via the income effect and if quality care is available, also via more homogenous cultural and cognitive stimulation of children. Mother's work does not generally have adverse effects for children's development.

Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain

In this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal child care availability for children under three has a positive effect across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation of social institutions to changes in gender roles. Event history models with regional fixed effects are applied to data from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001). The results show a significant and positive effect of regional day care availability on both, first and higher order births, while results are consistent with the second hypothesis only for second or higher order births.

Leaving the labour market: event-history analysis of the female workers' transition to housework in Denmark, Germany, Great Britain and Spain

This paper is aimed at exploring the determinants of female activity from a dynamic perspective. An event-history analysis of the transition form employment to housework has been made resorting to data from the European Household Panel Survey. Four countries representing different welfare regimes and, more specifically, different family policies, have been selected for the analysis: Britain, Denmark, Germany and Spain. The results confirm the importance of individual-level factors, which is consistent with an economic approach to female labour supply. Nonetheless, there are significant cross-national differences in how these factors act over the risk of abandoning the labour market. First, the number of trnasitions is much lower among Danish working women than among British, German or Spanish ones, revealing the relative importance of universal provision of childcare services, vis-à-vis other elements of the family policy, as time or money.

Not the right job but a secure one : over-education and temporary employment in France, Italy and Spain

Resorting to four waves of the European Community Household Panel, this research explores the association between temporary employment and the likelihood of being over-educated. Such an association has been largely ignored by the literature explaining over-education, more inclined to attribute such a mismatch to the system of education. Selecting three similarly standarised and stratified systems of education (France, Italy and Spain) and controlling for many other variables likely to affect over-education, like gender, age, tenure, job change, firm size or sector, the paper demonstrates that such an association between temporary employment and over-education exists. Being a stepping stone towards a more stable and adjusted position in the labour market, holding a temporary employment may be associated to a higher likelihood of being over-educated. Such an association is more likely in Italy and France. Yet, the opposite sign prevails where permanent employment becomes such a valuable asset as to make individuals trade human capital by employment security. This is the case of Spain.

Women's employment and the adult caring burden

Demographic ageing is increasing pensions, health and social services spending and threatening the future balance of public budgets. Providing home care can help to curb health expenditure and it may improve elderly welfare also, but EU states have chosen different policies in providing home are. Main differences are related with source of financing and eligibility criteria but also with the kind of benefits (benefits in cash or in kind). How these different options affect welfare and carers’ employment opportunities is the core of this research. Home care growth is going to be more efficient as far as it pro motes employment and, public revenues consequently. Using microdata from the European Community Household Panel, British and Spanish means tested programs are compared with German and Austrian ‘in cash’ benefits, and with Danish ‘in kind’ benefits also. The results show that Danish policies are the most efficient and equitable while the British and Spanish ones are the worst.

Temporary employment in advanced economies: drawing lessons from Spain

This study analyses the determinants of the rate of temporary employment in various OECD countries using both macro-level data drawn from the OECD and EUROSTAT databases, as well as micro-level data drawn from the 8th wave of the European Household Panel. Comparative analysis is set out to test different explanations originally formulated for the Spanish case. The evidence suggests that the overall distribution of temporary employment in advanced economies does not seem to be explicable by the characteristics of national productive structures. This evidence seems at odds with previous interpretations based on segmentation theories. As an alternative explanation, two types of supply-side factors are tested: crowding-out effects and educational gaps in the workforce. The former seems non significant, whilst the effects of the latter disappear after controlling for the levels of institutional protection in standard employment during the 1980s. Multivariate analysis shows that only this latter institutional variable, together with the degree of coordinated centralisation of the collective bargaining system, seem to have a significant impact on the distribution of temporary employment in the countries examined. On the basis of this observation, an explanation of the very high levels of temporary employment observed in Spain is proposed. This explanation is consistent with both country-specific and comparative evidence.