Análise de custo-efectividade da terapêutica de ressincronização cardíaca : avaliação da selecção baseada na dessincronia mecânica

RESUMO - A Terapêutica de Ressincronização Cardíaca (TRC) apresenta benefícios significativos na classe funcional, função ventricular, hospitalização e mortalidade. É uma técnica com custos elevados e, com os actuais métodos de selecção de doentes, a taxa de não-respondedores ronda os 30%. Objectivo: Compreender se a inclusão da dessincronia mecânica (DM) na selecção de doentes para TRC contribui para a sua relação custo-efectividade, na perspectiva do Serviço Nacional de Saúde português. Metodologia: Estudo prospectivo baseado em coortes histórias de 12 meses de dois grupos submetidos a TRC com desfibrilhador, o grupo de intervenção com doentes seleccionados com inclusão da DM (n=133) e o de controlo com selecção baseada exclusivamente nas recomendações internacionais (n=71). Reuniram-se dados clínicos e de custos nos 12 meses subsequentes à implantação, para cálculo do rácio custo-efectividade incremental (RCEI). Resultados: O grupo de intervenção apresentou uma sobrevivência de 91% e o de controlo de 93%, aos 12 meses (p=0,335). O grupo de intervenção apresentou 60 re-internamentos e o de controlo 46 re-internamentos por qualquer causa aos 12 meses (p=0,032), com RCEI=6.886,09€/re-internamento evitado. O grupo de intervenção apresentou 19 re-internamentos e o de controlo apresentou 31 re-internamentos por Insuficiência Cardíaca (IC) descompensada aos 12 meses (p<0,001), com RCEI=2.686,26€/re-internamento por IC descompensada evitado. Relativamente à melhoria da classe funcional e da fracção de ejecção não foi possível estabelecer associações com custos (p>0,05). Conclusão: É seguro afirmar que recomendar a selecção com inclusão da DM, nos hospitais com capacidade instalada, é um passo positivo na redução de custos com re-internamentos de doentes com TRC.

The ethical dilemma of expatriates in emerging economies: A liminal perspective

Adjustment to emerging economies is benefited if Western expatriates recognise they are experiencing a liminal situation, which can lead to the instrumental utilisation of coping strategies as equivalent to rites of passage between distinct ethical frameworks. Given the characteristics ascribed to rites, the ethical dilemma resulting from the simultaneous demand to abide by local rules and to respect Western ethical principles is more easily solved. Consequently, effective and sustainable adjustment is favoured. Implications for organisations and individuals are discussed.

Non–profit and investment attractiveness – best practices under a national perspective

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Introduction: digital methods and tools for historical research

As an introduction to a series of articles focused on the exploration of particular tools and/or methods to bring together digital technology and historical research, the aim of this paper is mainly to highlight and discuss in what measure those methodological approaches can contribute to improve analytical and interpretative capabilities available to historians. In a moment when the digital world present us with an ever-increasing variety of tools to perform extraction, analysis and visualization of large amounts of text, we thought it would be relevant to bring the digital closer to the vast historical academic community. More than repeating an idea of digital revolution introduced in the historical research, something recurring in the literature since the 1980s, the aim was to show the validity and usefulness of using digital tools and methods, as another set of highly relevant tools that the historians should consider. For this several case studies were used, combining the exploration of specific themes of historical knowledge and the development or discussion of digital methodologies, in order to highlight some changes and challenges that, in our opinion, are already affecting the historians' work, such as a greater focus given to interdisciplinarity and collaborative work, and a need for the form of communication of historical knowledge to become more interactive.

Durability to marine environment of innovative products for consolidation and chromatic reintegration of historical renders

9th International Masonry Conference 2014, 7-9 July, Universidade do Minho, Guimarães

Humor and the framing of the public sphere and public opinion in Portugal (1797-1834)

In his Answer to the Question: What is Enlightenment (1784), Kant puts forward his belief that the vocation to think freely, which humankind is endowed with, is bound to make sure that “the public use of reason” will at last act “even on the fundamental principles of government and the state [will] find it agreeable to treat man – who is now more than a machine – in accord with his dignity”. The critical reference to La Mettrie (1747), by opposing the machine to human dignity, will echo, in the dawn of the 20th century, in Bergson’s attempt to explain humor. Besides being exclusive to humans, humor is also a social phenomenon. Freud (1905) assures that pleasure originated by humor is collective, it results from a “social process”: jokes need an audience, a “third party”, in order to work and have fun. Assuming humor as a social and cultural phenomenon, this paper intends to sustain that it played a role in the framing of the public sphere and of public opinion in Portugal during the transition from Absolute Monarchy to Liberalism. The search for the conditions which made possible the critical exercise of sociability is at the root of the creation of the public sphere in the sense developed by Habermas (1962), whose perspective, however, has been questioned by those who point 2 out the alleged idealism of the concept – as opposed, for example, to Bakhtin (1970), whose work stresses diversity and pluralism. This notwithstanding, the concept of public sphere is crucial to the building of public opinion, which is, in turn, indissoluble from the principle of publicity, as demonstrated by Bobbio (1985). This paper discusses the historical evolution of the concept of public opinion from Ancient Greece doxa, through Machiavelli’s “humors” (1532), the origin of the expression in Montaigne (1580) and the contributions of Hobbes (1651), Locke (1690), Swift (1729), Rousseau (1762) or Hume (1777), up to the reflection of Lippman (1922) and Bourdieu’s critique (1984). It maintains that humor, as it appears in Portuguese printed periodicals from 1797 (when Almocreve de Petas was published for the first time) to the end of the civil war (1834) – especially in those edited by José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa but also in O Piolho Viajante, by António Manuel Policarpo da Silva, or in the ones written by José Agostinho de Macedo, as well as in a political “elite minded” periodical such as Correio Braziliense –, contributed to the framing of the public sphere and of public opinion in Portugal.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Consolidation and chromatic reintegration of historical renders with lime-based pozzolanic products

Historical renders are exposed to several degradation processes that can lead to a wide range of anomalies,such as scaling, detachments, and pulverization. Among the common anomalies, the loss of cohesion and of adhesion are usually identified as the most difficult to repair; these anomalies still need to be deeply studied to design compatible, durable, and sustainable conservation treatments. The restitution of render cohesion can be achieved using consolidating products. Nevertheless, repair treatments could induce aesthetic alterations, and, therefore, are usually followed by chromatic reintegration. This work aims to study the effectiveness of mineral products as consolidants for lime-based mortars and simultaneously as chromatic treatments for pigmented renders. The studied consolidating products are prepared by mixing air lime,metakaolin, water, and mineral pigments. The idea of these consolidating and coloring products rises from a traditional lime-based technique, the limewash, widely diffused in southern Europe and in the Mediterranean area. Consolidating products were applied and tested on lime-based mortar specimens with a low binder–aggregate ratio and therefore with reduced cohesion. A physico-mechanical, microstructural, and mineralogical characterization was performed on untreated and treated specimens, in order to evaluate the efficacy and durability of the treatments. Accelerated aging tests were also performed to assess consolidant durability, when subjected to aggressive conditions. Results showed that the consolidants tested are compatible, effective, and possess good durability.

Complex networks and data mining: toward a new perspective for the understanding of complex systems

Complex systems, i.e. systems composed of a large set of elements interacting in a non-linear way, are constantly found all around us. In the last decades, different approaches have been proposed toward their understanding, one of the most interesting being the Complex Network perspective. This legacy of the 18th century mathematical concepts proposed by Leonhard Euler is still current, and more and more relevant in real-world problems. In recent years, it has been demonstrated that network-based representations can yield relevant knowledge about complex systems. In spite of that, several problems have been detected, mainly related to the degree of subjectivity involved in the creation and evaluation of such network structures. In this Thesis, we propose addressing these problems by means of different data mining techniques, thus obtaining a novel hybrid approximation intermingling complex networks and data mining. Results indicate that such techniques can be effectively used to i) enable the creation of novel network representations, ii) reduce the dimensionality of analyzed systems by pre-selecting the most important elements, iii) describe complex networks, and iv) assist in the analysis of different network topologies. The soundness of such approach is validated through different validation cases drawn from actual biomedical problems, e.g. the diagnosis of cancer from tissue analysis, or the study of the dynamics of the brain under different neurological disorders.

Resilience in organizations: The perspective of managers in Portugal and Germany

The concept of organizational resilience has become popular in Organizational Studies during the last decades - yet researchers have not been able to find one commonly accepted definition for what exactly it is. What are the drivers of resilience in organizations? Are there certain cultural factors and national differences regarding the perception of the concept? This paper aims to answer these questions from a perspective of within institutions. A group of managers from different corporations in Portugal and Germany has been interviewed in order to understand how managers experience and characterize organizational resilience. Based on qualitative inductive research the results show that organizational resilience is built on four main drivers: a sense of proximity, a sense of openness, a sense of challenge and a sense for structure.

Popular music exhibitions in Portugal: practices of representation from 2007 to 2013

This thesis focuses on the representation of Popular Music in museums by mapping, analyzing, and characterizing its practices in Portugal at the beginning of the 21st century. Now that museums' ability to shape public discourse is acknowledged, the examination of popular music's discourses in museums is of the utmost importance for Ethnomusicology and Popular Music Studies as well as for Museum Studies. The concept of 'heritage' is at the heart of this processes. The study was designed with the aim of moving the exhibiting of popular music in museums forward through a qualitative inquiry of case studies. Data collection involved surveying pop-rock music exhibitions as a qualitative sampling of popular music exhibitions in Portugal from 2007 to 2013. Two of these exhibitions were selected as case studies: No Tempo do Gira-Discos: Um Percurso pela Produção Fonográfica Portuguesa at the Museu da Música in Lisbon in 2007 (also Faculdade de Letras, 2009), and A Magia do Vinil, a Música que Mudou a Sociedade at the Oficina da Cultura in Almada in 2008 (and several other venues, from 2009 to 2013). Two specific domains were observed: popular music exhibitions as instances of museum practice and museum professionals. The first domain encompasses analyzing the types of objects selected for exhibition; the interactive museum practices fostered by the exhibitions; the concepts and narratives used to address popular music discursively, as well as the interpretative practices they allow. The second domain, focuses museum professionals and curators of popular music exhibitions as members of a group, namely their goals, motivations and perspectives. The theoretical frameworks adopted were drawn from the fields of ethnomusicology, popular music studies, and museum studies. The written materials of the exhibitions were subjected of methods of discourse analysis methods. Semi-structured interviews with curators and museum professional were also conducted and analysed. From the museum studies perspective, the study research suggests that the practice adopted by popular music museums largely matches that of conventional museums. From the ethnomusicological and popular music studies stand point, the two case studies reveal two distinct conceptual worlds: the first exhibition, curated by an academic and an independent researcher, points to a mental configuration where popular music is explained through a framework of genres supported by different musical practices. Moreover, it is industry actors such as decision makers and gatekeepers that govern popular music, which implies that the visitors' romantic conception of the musician is to some extent dismantled; the second exhibition, curated by a record collector and specialist, is based on a more conventional process of the everyday historical speech that encodes a mismatch between “good” and “bad music”. Data generated by a survey shows that only one curator, in fact that of my first case study, has an academic background. The backgrounds of all the others are in some way similar to the curator of the second case study. Therefore, I conclude that the second case study best conveys the current practice of exhibiting Popular Music in Portugal.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Os serviços de informações de Portugal: organização e fiscalização

In, RDeS - Revista de Direito e Segurança, nº1 (Janeiro/Junho de 2013), 63-85 pp. que consiste numa versão actualizada do texto publicado na obra colectiva AAVV, Estudos de Direito e Segurança (coordenação de Jorge Bacelar Gouveia e Rui Carlos Pereira), Almedina, Coimbra, 2007, pp. 171 e ss.

Historical analysis of the records of sylvan yellow fever in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, from 1996 to 2009

IntroductionYellow fever is a non-contagious infectious disease, highly lethal, transmitted by the Aedes, Haemagogus and Sabethes.MethodsDescriptive retrospective study of the yellow fever cases in Amazonas, between 1996 and 2009.ResultsForty two cases of yellow fever were confirmed, with 30 deaths, 10% of which were foreigners.ConclusionsThe presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in both rural Amazonas and its capital demonstrates the dispersion of these vectors and underscores the need for better and continuous epidemiological and entomological control.

Leprosy and pregnancy in the State of Para: an epidemiological perspective

Introduction A few older publications describe leprosy associated with pregnancy, a situation that has been linked to leprosy exacerbation. This study aimed to describe the detection rate of this association in the State of Pará by county and Integration Region (IR) from 2007 to 2009 via an analysis of sociodemographic, epidemiological and operational indices. Methods This was a descriptive study using information generated by the SINAN. The Detection Coefficient of the Leprosy and Pregnancy Association (DCLP) epidemiological index was constructed to help interpret the endemicity parameters. The disease was considered hyperendemic when greater than two cases per 10,000 inhabitants were identified. Results During the study period, 149 associations were detected, with 14 hyperendemic counties: seven in 2007, five in 2008 and two in 2009. The Carajás Integrated Region displayed the highest DCLP index in the period. Eldorado dos Carajás had the single highest DCLP index (5.7/10,000 inhabitants, 2008), whereas the DCLP index in Conceição do Araguaia was very high in all three years. However, most counties displayed low or medium DCLP indices. The annual averages were 0.31 DCLP (2007), bass; 0.30 (2008), bass and 0.19 (2009), bass. The average DCLP index was 0.26, which is considered low. Three clusters of medium endemicity were identified by the average DCLP in the study period. Conclusions The analyses indicated that the surveillance program is still unsatisfactory in Pará. The interpretation of the endemicity parameters enabled qualitative and quantitative analyses to determine the epidemiological panorama of this association. The identification of high endemicity requires further clarification.