942 resultados para equilibrium asset pricing models with latent variables
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Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most potent antigen-presenting cells in the human lung and are now recognized as crucial initiators of immune responses in general. They are arranged as sentinels in a dense surveillance network inside and below the epithelium of the airways and alveoli, where thet are ideally situated to sample inhaled antigen. DCs are known to play a pivotal role in maintaining the balance between tolerance and active immune response in the respiratory system. It is no surprise that the lungs became a main focus of DC-related investigations as this organ provides a large interface for interactions of inhaled antigens with the human body. During recent years there has been a constantly growing body of lung DC-related publications that draw their data from in vitro models, animal models and human studies. This review focuses on the biology and functions of different DC populations in the lung and highlights the advantages and drawbacks of different models with which to study the role of lung DCs. Furthermore, we present a number of up-to-date visualization techniques to characterize DC-related cell interactions in vitro and/or in vivo.
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Introduction: The overeruption of upper molars due to the premature loss of antagonist teeth can be treated with the help of miniscrews. The aim of this study was to evaluate the movement of a typodont molar according to the biomechanical approach used with miniscrews. Study design: The study was conducted with four plaster models filled with typodont wax. In each model we used one absolute anchorage on the palatal side and another on the buccal side in different positions, thus generating four different biomechanical systems. A force of 150 g was applied to each side of the resin tooth. Periapical radiographs were taken preintrusion and immediately after completion of the intrusion. Photographs were taken in both the sagittal and occlusal planes every 3 min. The radiographic films and photographs were measured and compared. Results: A vertical movement of the molar was observed in all the models, with system 4 showing the greatest movement. Rotation in the occlusal plane only occurred in system 2, while in system 1 there was a change in the axial axis of 37 degrees. Conclusions: The anchorage site and the combination of forces applied may determine the resulting tooth movement
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This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.
Genetic diversity between improved banana diploids using canonical variables and the Ward-MLM method
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The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic diversity of improved banana diploids using data from quantitative analysis and from simple sequence repeats (SSR) marker, simultaneously. The experiment was carried out with 33 diploids, in an augmented block design with 30 regular treatments and three common ones. Eighteen agronomic characteristics and 20 SSR primers were used. The agronomic characteristics and the SSR were analyzed simultaneously by the Ward-MLM, cluster, and IML procedures. The Ward clustering method considered the combined matrix obtained by the Gower algorithm. The Ward-MLM procedure identified three ideal groups (G1, G2, and G3) based on pseudo-F and pseudo-t² statistics. The dendrogram showed relative similarity between the G1 genotypes, justified by genealogy. In G2, 'Calcutta 4' appears in 62% of the genealogies. Similar behavior was observed in G3, in which the 028003-01 diploid is the male parent of the 086079-10 and 042079-06 genotypes. The method with canonical variables had greater discriminatory power than Ward-MLM. Although reduced, the genetic variability available is sufficient to be used in the development of new hybrids.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the total and thermotolerant coliform densities in the oyster culture water of Cananeia, SP, Brazil, correlating these densities with environmental variables and tidal variations. Superficial water samples were collected in two tide conditions (spring and neap) from three areas of Cananéia municipality (Mandira, Itapitangui and Cooperostra). The three studied areas showed good conditions for the culture regarding coliform densities. The two tidal conditions differed significantly as to total coliform concentration; however, the same procedure was not performed for thermotolerant coliforms. No correlation was observed between water temperature, pH, and concentrations of total and thermotolerant coliforms. Coliform density was positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with salinity. Spring and neap tides differed significantly as to coliform number. Simple diagnosis of environmental conditions of the crop fields is insufficient to assess water quality of shellfish cultivation. A continuous monitoring program of planted areas is necessary both for the assessment of water quality potential for marine culture and for ensuring safe consumption of seafood, besides constituting an important tool to understand the relationships between contamination and the involved environmental variables.
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Tämä diplomityö käsittelee paperikoneiden kulutusosapalvelua tarjoavan yrityksen hinnoittelumallin kehittämistä haastavassa toimintaympäristössä, jossa kilpailu on kiristynyt ja asiakkaat ovat muuttuneet entistä hintatietoisemmiksi. Työn tavoitteena on kehittää kulutusosapalvelulle hinnoittelumalli ja pohtia ¤/tuotettu paperitonni (¤/tonni)-hinnoittelun soveltuvuutta paperikoneiden kulutusosapalvelua toimittaville yrityksille. ¤/tonni-hinnoittelussalähtökohta on asiakkaalle tuotettu hyöty; kuinka paljon paperia kulutusosilla pystytään tuottamaan. ¤/tonni-hinnoittelua tarkastellaan tarkemmin esimerkkiasiakkaiden avulla, joiden tehtailla toimintatavat kulutusosapalveluun liittyen vaihtelevat. Tavoitteena on selvittää kulutusosapalvelun ¤/tonni-kustannukset eri toimintatavoissa kulutusosapalveluita tarjoavan yrityksen sekä asiakkaan näkökulmasta. Työssä selvitetään kuinka eri toimintatapojen ja asiakkaiden kannattavuus vaihtelee kulutusosapalveluita tarjoavan yrityksen kannalta, jamikä toimintamalli on edullisin asiakkaan kannalta. Kehitettävän hinnoittelumallin avulla analysoidaan, kuinka paljon hyötyä kulutusosapalveluita tarjoava yritys tarjoaa asiakkailleen palveluillaan. Kulutusosapalvelu jaetaan kolmeen selvitettävään kustannuskomponenttiin; kulutusosa-, logistiikka- ja laadun puutekustannuksiin. Työn teoreettinen osa koostuu kirjallisuustutkimuksesta liittyen hinnoitteluun, hinnoittelumalleihin ja hinnoittelusopimuksiin. Työnempiirinen osa perustuu haastatteluihin ja sisäisten tietojärjestelmien tietoihin. Kirjallisuustutkimuksen, haastattelujen ja kohdeyrityksen sisäisen materiaalin avulla mallinnetaan loogismatemaattisesti taulukkolaskentasovellus, ¤/tonni-hinnoittelumalli. Työn keskeiset tulokset liittyvät siihen, mitä asioita tulee huomioida ¤/tonni-hinnoittelusopimusta asiakkaan kanssa tehtäessä, miten ¤/tonni-kustannukset vaihtelevat eri toimintavoissa ja kuinka hinnoittelumallin kehittämistä kannattaa edelleen jatkaa.
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Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää kosmetiikan suoramyyntiyrityksen hinnoittelustrategiaa. Tarkoitus oli saattaa normaalihinnat oikealle tasolle määritellyn kilpailuaseman mukaan. Työn etenemisen myötä huomattiin tarvetta myös koko hinnoitteluprosessin uudelleenluomiselle, sillä aikaisempi toimintatapa ei toiminut enää nykyisessä tilanteessa konsernin tiukkojen raportointitarpeiden ja esitteiden analyysin tukena tarvittavissa määrin. Aluksi tutustuttiin hinnoitteluun vaikuttaviin tekijöihin ja eri hintastrategisiin vaihtoehtoihin sekä hinnan rooliin markkinoinnin kilpailukeinona. Työssä tutustuttiin lisäksi suoramyyntitavan ominaispiirteisiin. Teorian pohjalta selkiytettiin Oriflame Finland Oy:n hinnoittelustrategia jalaadittiin pohjat tuotekohtaiselle ja myyntijaksottaiselle hinnoittelulle. Hinnoittelupohjan tuli tukea myös yrityksen talousosastoa ja olla hyödyllinen raportointityökalu myyntiennusteita varten. Erityisesti uusi hinnoittelumalli tehtiin tukemaan yrityksen päämyyntivälineen eli jaksottaisen myyntiesitteen analysoimista. Hinnoittelu on keskeisessä osassa koko yritysstrategiassa, sillä se vaikuttaa suoraan mielikuviin. Hinnoittelun tulee jatkossa tukea enemmän yrityksen kilpailullisia ja markkinoinnillisia tavoitteita, ja sen säännöllinen kehittäminen ja kilpailutilanteen päivitys kuuluu jatkossa yhtenä määriteltynä osana hinnoitteluprosessiin.
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Differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography (DPCT) refers to a class of promising methods for reconstructing the X-ray refractive index distribution of materials that present weak X-ray absorption contrast. The tomographic projection data in DPCT, from which an estimate of the refractive index distribution is reconstructed, correspond to one-dimensional (1D) derivatives of the two-dimensional (2D) Radon transform of the refractive index distribution. There is an important need for the development of iterative image reconstruction methods for DPCT that can yield useful images from few-view projection data, thereby mitigating the long data-acquisition times and large radiation doses associated with use of analytic reconstruction methods. In this work, we analyze the numerical and statistical properties of two classes of discrete imaging models that form the basis for iterative image reconstruction in DPCT. We also investigate the use of one of the models with a modern image reconstruction algorithm for performing few-view image reconstruction of a tissue specimen.
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Dynamic behavior of bothisothermal and non-isothermal single-column chromatographic reactors with an ion-exchange resin as the stationary phase was investigated. The reactor performance was interpreted by using results obtained when studying the effect of the resin properties on the equilibrium and kinetic phenomena occurring simultaneously in the reactor. Mathematical models were derived for each phenomenon and combined to simulate the chromatographic reactor. The phenomena studied includes phase equilibria in multicomponent liquid mixture¿ion-exchange resin systems, chemicalequilibrium in the presence of a resin catalyst, diffusion of liquids in gel-type and macroporous resins, and chemical reaction kinetics. Above all, attention was paid to the swelling behavior of the resins and how it affects the kinetic phenomena. Several poly(styrene-co-divinylbenzene) resins with different cross-link densities and internal porosities were used. Esterification of acetic acid with ethanol to produce ethyl acetate and water was used as a model reaction system. Choosing an ion-exchange resin with a low cross-link density is beneficial inthe case of the present reaction system: the amount of ethyl acetate as well the ethyl acetate to water mole ratio in the effluent stream increase with decreasing cross-link density. The enhanced performance of the reactor is mainly attributed to increasing reaction rate, which in turn originates from the phase equilibrium behavior of the system. Also mass transfer considerations favor the use ofresins with low cross-link density. The diffusion coefficients of liquids in the gel-type ion-exchange resins were found to fall rapidly when the extent of swelling became low. Glass transition of the polymer was not found to significantlyretard the diffusion in sulfonated PS¿DVB ion-exchange resins. It was also shown that non-isothermal operation of a chromatographic reactor could be used to significantly enhance the reactor performance. In the case of the exothermic modelreaction system and a near-adiabatic column, a positive thermal wave (higher temperature than in the initial state) was found to travel together with the reactive front. This further increased the conversion of the reactants. Diffusion-induced volume changes of the ion-exchange resins were studied in a flow-through cell. It was shown that describing the swelling and shrinking kinetics of the particles calls for a mass transfer model that explicitly includes the limited expansibility of the polymer network. A good description of the process was obtained by combining the generalized Maxwell-Stefan approach and an activity model that was derived from the thermodynamics of polymer solutions and gels. The swelling pressure in the resin phase was evaluated by using a non-Gaussian expression forthe polymer chain length distribution. Dimensional changes of the resin particles necessitate the use of non-standard mathematical tools for dynamic simulations. A transformed coordinate system, where the mass of the polymer was used as a spatial variable, was applied when simulating the chromatographic reactor columns as well as the swelling and shrinking kinetics of the resin particles. Shrinking of the particles in a column leads to formation of dead volume on top of the resin bed. In ordinary Eulerian coordinates, this results in a moving discontinuity that in turn causes numerical difficulties in the solution of the PDE system. The motion of the discontinuity was eliminated by spanning two calculation grids in the column that overlapped at the top of the resin bed. The reactive and non-reactive phase equilibrium data were correlated with a model derived from thethermodynamics of polymer solution and gels. The thermodynamic approach used inthis work is best suited at high degrees of swelling because the polymer matrixmay be in the glassy state when the extent of swelling is low.
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Geophysical data may provide crucial information about hydrological properties, states, and processes that are difficult to obtain by other means. Large data sets can be acquired over widely different scales in a minimally invasive manner and at comparatively low costs, but their effective use in hydrology makes it necessary to understand the fidelity of geophysical models, the assumptions made in their construction, and the links between geophysical and hydrological properties. Geophysics has been applied for groundwater prospecting for almost a century, but it is only in the last 20 years that it is regularly used together with classical hydrological data to build predictive hydrological models. A largely unexplored venue for future work is to use geophysical data to falsify or rank competing conceptual hydrological models. A promising cornerstone for such a model selection strategy is the Bayes factor, but it can only be calculated reliably when considering the main sources of uncertainty throughout the hydrogeophysical parameter estimation process. Most classical geophysical imaging tools tend to favor models with smoothly varying property fields that are at odds with most conceptual hydrological models of interest. It is thus necessary to account for this bias or use alternative approaches in which proposed conceptual models are honored at all steps in the model building process.
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Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.
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Pohjoismaiset sähkömarkkinat ovat muuttuneet viime vuosina huomattavasti. Sähkömarkkinalakiuudistuksessa poistettiin muodollisesti kilpailun esteet, mutta uusien toimintamuotojen omaksuminen on Suomessa vasta alussa. Sähkömarkkinaosapuolet altistuvat riskriskeille, joita toimialalla ei ole aikaisemmin esiintynyt. Suurimpana riskitekijänä voidaan pitää epävarmuutta tulevasta sähkön hintatasosta, joka voi vaikuttaa merkittävästi yrityksen liiketoiminnan tulokseen. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan, miten hinnanvaihtelua vastaan pystytään suojautumaan sähköjohdannaisten avulla. Kaupankäynti johdannaissopimuksilla edellyttää markkinoiden aktiivista seuraamista ja organisoitua sähkökaupan riskienhallintaa. Riskienhallinnan tehtävänä ei ole riskien eliminoiminen, vaan niiden sopeuttaminen yrityksen tuotto-odotuksien ja riskiensietokyvyn mukaisiksi. Ennen sähkömarkkinoiden avautumista suojauduttiin sähkön hintariskeiltä pitkillä toimitussopimuksilla. Uudessa markkinatilanteessa suojaus voidaan toteuttaa joustavasti ja kohtuullisin kustannuksin käyttämällä johdannaissopimuksia, joilla voidaan poistaa tulevaisuuteen kohdistuvaa epävarmuutta sähkönhinnasta. Pohjoismaisessa sähköpörssissä, Nord Pool ASA:ssa, noteerattavat johdannaiset ovat vakioituja. Lokakuun lopussa 1999 kaupankäynnin kohteeksi otetaan termiinien lisäksi myös vakioidut sähköoptiot. Option ostajalle avautuu mahdollisuus hintasuojaukseen instrumenteilla, joita käyttäen suojaustaso voidaan määrittää etukäteen. Vakioitujen sähköoptioiden mukaan ottaminen sähköpörssin tuotevalikoimaan monipuolistaa huomattavasti ostajien ja myyjien suojautumismahdollisuuksia. Suojaustasoa on tarpeen vaatiessa mahdollista muuttaa vastamaan uutta markkinatilannetta. Työn loppuosassa on tutkittu mahdollisia kaupankäyntistrategioita ja hinnoittelumalleja sähköoptioille. Koska tutkimus on tehty ennen pörssissä tapahtuvan optiokaupan alkamista, useisiin tässä työssä avoimiksi jääneisiin kysymyksiin tullaan saaman vastauksia käytännön kokemuksista.
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Tutkielman päätavoitteena oli selvittää kuinka pääomasijoittajat käyttävät tai voivat käyttää reaalioptioajattelua päätöksenteon apuna. Tutkielma jakaantui teoria- ja empiriaosaan. Teoriaosassa käytettiin tutkimusmetodologiana käsiteanalyyttista tutkimusotetta. Empiriaosa tehtiin kvalitatiivisena tutkimuksena, jossa teema-haastatteluna haastateltiin kahdeksaa pääomasijoittajaa. Tutkielman teoriaosassa tutkittiin alan tutkimusten avulla pääomasijoittajan päätöksentekoprosessia sekä niitä kriteereitä, jotka vaikuttavat sijoituspäätökseen. Lisäksi esiteltiin optiohinnoittelumalli, jonka avulla pääomasijoittaja voi laskea kohdeyrityksen tulevaisuuden arvon. Teoriaosassa tutkittiin myös reaalioptiota. Ulkomaisten sekä kotimaisen tutkimusten avulla selvitettiin miten yleisiä perinteiset investointilaskelmat ovat sekä mitä puutteita niissä on verrattuna reaalioptioihin. Haastatteluissa keskityttiin päätöksentekoprosessin kuvaamiseen sekä kriteereihin, joita pääomasijoittajat arvioivat ennen sijoituspäätöksen tekoa. Lisäksi kartoitettiin reaalioptioiden käyttöä. Pääomasijoittajat eivät käytä reaalioptioanalyysiä hyväksi sijoituskohteiden arvon määrittämisessä. Reaalioptioita sisältyy pääomasijoitustoimintaan ja reaalioptioanalyysi sopii pääomasijoitusten arvottamiseen. Sitä tulisikin käyttää muiden menetelmien rinnalla.
Vinouden huomioiva arvopapereiden hinnoittelumalli ja sen empiirinen testaaminen Suomen markkinoilla
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Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on tutkia osaketuottojen jakauman vinoutta ja sen mahdollisia vaikutuksia osakkeiden hinnoitteluun Suomen markkinoilla. Aineistona käytetään kuutta portfoliota jotka on muodostettu Suomen markkinoilla noteerattavista osakkeista ajanjaksolla 1.1.1987–31.12.2004. Osakkeet on jaettu portfolioihin markkina-arvon mukaan. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että osaketuotot Suomen markkinoilla ovat positiivisesti vinoja mutta pääosin eivät merkitsevästi. Teoreettisen taustan perusteella olisi ollut odotettavaa, että vinoutta olisi ollut enemmän. Regressioanalyysillä ja kahta artikkelia replikoiden tutkittiin perinteisen ja vinouden sisältäviä CAPM-malleja. Odotettavissa oli, että perinteinen CAPM-malli suoriutuu huonommin kuin vinouden sisältävä. Regressio-analyysillä testatessa molemmat mallit suoriutuivat hyvin tuottojen selittämisessä, mutta vakiotermien perusteella kolmimomenttinen malli suoriutuisi paremmin. Regressiomallin ja artikkelin perusteella saadut betat olivat yhteneväisiä. Regressiomallin ja artikkelin perusteella saaduissa gam-moissa oli kuitenkin eroja ja niiden perusteella ei voida tehdä johtopäätöksiä. Regressiomalli näyttäisi kuitenkin huomioivan vinouden.
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We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without it. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show that the model with wage inertia can explain some growth patterns that cannot be explained when wages are flexible. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies.