Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the three-dimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years “target” simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-to-high latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied everywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained large-scale observations of this field.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the ocean reanalyses inter-comparison project (ORA-IP)

Many institutions worldwide have developed ocean reanalyses systems (ORAs) utilizing a variety of ocean models and assimilation techniques. However, the quality of salinity reanalyses arising from the various ORAs has not yet been comprehensively assessed. In this study, we assess the upper ocean salinity content (depth-averaged over 0–700 m) from 14 ORAs and 3 objective ocean analysis systems (OOAs) as part of the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the best agreement between estimates of salinity from different ORAs is obtained in the tropical Pacific, likely due to relatively abundant atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The largest disagreement in salinity reanalyses is in the Southern Ocean along the Antarctic circumpolar current as a consequence of the sparseness of both atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The West Pacific warm pool is the largest region where the signal to noise ratio of reanalysed salinity anomalies is >1. Therefore, the current salinity reanalyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be more reliable than those in the Southern Ocean and regions along the western boundary currents. Moreover, we found that the assimilation of salinity in ocean regions with relatively strong ocean fronts is still a common problem as seen in most ORAs. The impact of the Argo data on the salinity reanalyses is visible, especially within the upper 500m, where the interannual variability is large. The increasing trend in global-averaged salinity anomalies can only be found within the top 0–300m layer, but with quite large diversity among different ORAs. Beneath the 300m depth, the global-averaged salinity anomalies from most ORAs switch their trends from a slightly growing trend before 2002 to a decreasing trend after 2002. The rapid switch in the trend is most likely an artefact of the dramatic change in the observing system due to the implementation of Argo.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Taxonomic review of Haliclystus antarcticus Pfeffer, 1889 (Stauromedusae, Staurozoa, Cnidaria), with remarks on the genus Haliclystus Clark, 1863

Difficulties concerning the taxonomy of stauromedusae are long known, and there is a clear need for taxonomic revision of the genus Haliclystus, as well as the reevaluation of some species. Haliclystus antarcticus Pfeffer, 1889 is recorded from Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Due to the lack of detailed information on this species, we provide a redescription, presenting new data on the cnidome, morphometry, geographical distribution and intraspecific variation. Based on these characters, we propose that our specimens and Haliclystus auricula from Chile and Argentina are synonymous and should be classified as H. antarcticus. We also review the worldwide distribution of the genus Haliclystus Clark, 1863 and discuss taxonomic issues, concluding that some characters traditionally used in the taxonomy of the group should be used cautiously.

Geographic Variation in Sea Otters, Enhydra lutris

Univariate and multivariate analyses of 20 skull characters of 304 adult sea otters from throughout the geographic range strongly suggest that three subspecies should be recognized. The nominate form, Enhydra lutris lutris, occurs from the Kuril Islands north to the Commander Islands in the western Pacific Ocean. Individuals of E. l. lutris are characterized by large size and wide skulls with short nasal bones. E. 1. nereis is found along the California coast and off San Nicolas Island, where the species recently has been reintroduced from coastal California. Specimens of E. 1. nereis have narrow skulls with a long rostrum and small teeth, and usually lack the characteristic notch in the postorbital region found in most specimens of the other two subspecies. A new subspecies described by Don E. Wilson in this report, occurs throughout the Aleutian Islands and southward in the eastern Pacific to Washington. Specimens of the new subspecies are intermediate in size in most, but not all, characters and have longer mandibles than either of the other two subspecies

Cetacean sightings around the Republic of the Maldives, April 1998

In April 1998, as part of a project to collect biopsy samples of putative pygmy blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda) in the waters around the Republic of the Maldives, Indian Ocean, incidental sightings of cetaceans encountered were recorded. Using modified line-transect methods and handheld binoculars, a total of 267 sightings of 16 species of whales and dolphins were recorded during 20 at-sea days in the northeastern part of the atoll. Significant results include the following: (1) cetaceans were abundant and species diversity was high, including nearly every pantropical species of pelagic cetacean; (2) the spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) was by far the most common species encountered (56 sightings) and also had the largest mean school size ( = 50.3 individuals); (3) blue whales were rare; only four individuals were sighted; (4) a large concentration of Bryde’s whales (28 sightings in two days) was apparently feeding in nearshore waters; (5) this paper reports the first records for the Maldives of Cuvier’s beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris), Blainville’s beaked whale (Mesoplodon densirostris) and the dwarf sperm whale (Kogia sima): the latter was particularly common (17 sightings); (6) the spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) was rare and almost always associated with yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares), spinner dolphin, or seabirds, as has been reported in the eastern Pacific and western Indian oceans.

Evolutionary Diversification of Banded Tube-Dwelling Anemones (Cnidaria; Ceriantharia; Isarachnanthus) in the Atlantic Ocean

The use of molecular data for species delimitation in Anthozoa is still a very delicate issue. This is probably due to the low genetic variation found among the molecular markers (primarily mitochondrial) commonly used for Anthozoa. Ceriantharia is an anthozoan group that has not been tested for genetic divergence at the species level. Recently, all three Atlantic species described for the genus Isarachnanthus of Atlantic Ocean, were deemed synonyms based on morphological simmilarities of only one species: Isarachnanthus maderensis. Here, we aimed to verify whether genetic relationships (using COI, 16S, ITS1 and ITS2 molecular markers) confirmed morphological affinities among members of Isarachnanthus from different regions across the Atlantic Ocean. Results from four DNA markers were completely congruent and revealed that two different species exist in the Atlantic Ocean. The low identification success and substantial overlap between intra and interspecific COI distances render the Anthozoa unsuitable for DNA barcoding, which is not true for Ceriantharia. In addition, genetic divergence within and between Ceriantharia species is more similar to that found in Medusozoa (Hydrozoa and Scyphozoa) than Anthozoa and Porifera that have divergence rates similar to typical metazoans. The two genetic species could also be separated based on micromorphological characteristics of their cnidomes. Using a specimen of Isarachnanthus bandanensis from Pacific Ocean as an outgroup, it was possible to estimate the minimum date of divergence between the clades. The cladogenesis event that formed the species of the Atlantic Ocean is estimated to have occured around 8.5 million years ago (Miocene) and several possible speciation scenarios are discussed.

Organochlorine contaminants in albatrosses and petrels during migration in South Atlantic Ocean

Albatrosses and petrels (Procellariiformes) are migratory oceanic birds of considerable conservational interest. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were assessed in the subcutaneous fat, liver and muscle of 100 birds belonging to eight species of Procellariiformes collected during their migration period in southern Brazil, one of the most important feeding areas for these species. Although the profiles of PCBs and OCPs were similar among the individuals, with predominance of penta, hexa and heptachlorobiphenyls and p'p-DDE, organochlorine concentrations exhibited a high degree of intra-species variability. The influence of body condition during the migration period in the distribution of organochlorine contaminants was also evaluated, showing that it is a significant factor in the variation and redistribution of these compounds in the tissues of these birds. The intense use of lipid reserves associated to the contamination from organochlorine compounds could be a troubling factor for seabirds with extended breeding periods and that spend most of their lives at sea migrating long distances, such as most of Procellariiformes. Studies on contamination are necessary to improve the knowledge of the threats to these birds and their populations as well as to contribute with information about persistent organic pollutants in the South Atlantic marine environment.

Database of diazotrophs in global ocean: abundances, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

[EN] Marine N2 fixing microorganisms, termed diazotrophs, are a key functional group in marine pelagic ecosystems. The biological fixation of dinitrogen (N2) to bioavailable nitrogen provides an important new source of nitrogen for pelagic marine ecosystems 5 and influences primary productivity and organic matter export to the deep ocean. As one of a series of efforts to collect biomass and rates specific to different phytoplankton functional groups, we have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling about 12 000 direct field measurements of cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances (based on microscopic cell counts or qPCR 10 assays targeting the nifH genes) and N2 fixation rates. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert  abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. The database is limited spatially, lacking large regions of the ocean especially in the Indian Ocean. The data are approximately log-normal distributed, and large variances exist in most sub-databases with non-zero values differing 5 to 8 orders of magnitude. 15 Lower mean N2 fixation rate was found in the North Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean. Reporting the geometric mean and the range of one geometric standard error below and above the geometric mean, the pelagic N2 fixation rate in the global ocean is estimated to be 62 (53–73) TgNyr−1 and the pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean is estimated to be 4.7 (2.3–9.6) TgC from cell counts and to 89 (40–20 200) TgC from nifH-based abundances. Uncertainties related to biomass conversion factors can change the estimate of geometric mean pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean by about ±70 %. This evolving database can be used to study spatial and temporal distributions and variations of marine N2 fixation, to validate geochemical estimates and to parameterize and validate biogeochemical models. The database is 25 stored in PANGAEA (http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.774851).

Geological and Structural evolution of the Eurasia Africa plate boundary in the Gulf of Cadiz Central Eastern Atlantic Sea.

Iberia Africa plate boundary, cross, roughly W-E, connecting the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Azores triple junction to the Continental margin of Morocco. Relative movement between the two plate change along the boundary, from transtensive near the Azores archipelago, through trascurrent movement in the middle at the Gloria Fracture Zone, to transpressive in the Gulf of Cadiz area. This study presents the results of geophysical and geological analysis on the plate boundary area offshore Gibraltar. The main topic is to clarify the geodynamic evolution of this area from Oligocene to Quaternary. Recent studies have shown that the new plate boundary is represented by a 600 km long set of aligned, dextral trascurrent faults (the SWIM lineaments) connecting the Gloria fault to the Riff orogene. The western termination of these lineaments crosscuts the Gibraltar accretionary prism and seems to reach the Moroccan continental shelf. In the past two years newly acquired bathymetric data collected in the Moroccan offshore permit to enlighten the present position of the eastern portion of the plate boundary, previously thought to be a diffuse plate boundary. The plate boundary evolution, from the onset of compression in the Oligocene to the Late Pliocene activation of trascurrent structures, is not yet well constrained. The review of available seismics lines, gravity and bathymetric data, together with the analysis of new acquired bathymetric and high resolution seismic data offshore Morocco, allows to understand how the deformation acted at lithospheric scale under the compressive regime. Lithospheric folding in the area is suggested, and a new conceptual model is proposed for the propagation of the deformation acting in the brittle crust during this process. Our results show that lithospheric folding, both in oceanic and thinned continental crust, produced large wavelength synclines bounded by short wavelength, top thrust, anticlines. Two of these anticlines are located in the Gulf of Cadiz, and are represented by the Gorringe Ridge and Coral Patch seamounts. Lithospheric folding probably interacted with the Monchique – Madeira hotspot during the 72 Ma to Recent, NNE – SSW transit. Plume related volcanism is for the first time described on top of the Coral Patch seamount, where nine volcanoes are found by means of bathymetric data. 40Ar-39Ar age of 31.4±1.98 Ma are measured from one rock sample of one of these volcanoes. Analysis on biogenic samples show how the Coral Patch act as a starved offshore seamount since the Chattian. We proposed that compression stress formed lithospheric scale structures playing as a reserved lane for the upwelling of mantle material during the hotspot transit. The interaction between lithospheric folding and the hotspot emplacement can be also responsible for the irregularly spacing, and anomalous alignments, of individual islands and seamounts belonging to the Monchique - Madeira hotspot.