Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Dynamic range extension of SiPM detectors with the time-gated operation

The silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) is a novel detector technology that has undergone a fast development in the last few years, owing to its single-photon resolution and ultra-fast response time. However, the typical high dark count rates of the sensor may prevent the detection of low intensity radiation fluxes. In this article, the time-gated operation with short active periods in the nanosecond range is proposed as a solution to reduce the number of cells fired due to noise and thus increase the dynamic range. The technique is aimed at application fields that function under a trigger command, such as gated fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy.

Proxemics with multiple dynamic characters in an immersive virtual environment

An experiment was carried out to examine the impact on electrodermal activity of people when approached by groups of one or four virtual characters at varying distances. It was premised on the basis of proxemics theory that the closer the approach of the virtual characters to the participant, the greater the level of physiological arousal. Physiological arousal was measured by the number of skin conductance responses within a short time period after the approach, and the maximum change in skin conductance level 5 s after the approach. The virtual characters were each either female or a cylinder of human size, and one or four characters approached each subject a total of 12 times. Twelve male subjects were recruited for the experiment. The results suggest that the number of skin conductance responses after the approach and the change in skin conductance level increased the closer the virtual characters approached toward the participants. Moreover, these response variables were inversely correlated with the number of visits, showing a typical adaptation effect. There was some evidence to suggest that the number of characters who simultaneously approached (one or four) was positively associated with the responses. Surprisingly there was no evidence of a difference in response between the humanoid characters and cylinders on the basis of this physiological data. It is suggested that the similarity in this quantitative arousal response to virtual characters and virtual objects might mask a profound difference in qualitative response, an interpretation supported by questionnaire and interview results. Overall the experiment supported the premise that people exhibit heightened physiological arousal the closer they are approached by virtual characters.

Proxemics with multiple dynamic characters in an immersive virtual environment

An experiment was carried out to examine the impact on electrodermal activity of people when approached by groups of one or four virtual characters at varying distances. It was premised on the basis of proxemics theory that the closer the approach of the virtual characters to the participant, the greater the level of physiological arousal. Physiological arousal was measured by the number of skin conductance responses within a short time period after the approach, and the maximum change in skin conductance level 5 s after the approach. The virtual characters were each either female or a cylinder of human size, and one or four characters approached each subject a total of 12 times. Twelve male subjects were recruited for the experiment. The results suggest that the number of skin conductance responses after the approach and the change in skin conductance level increased the closer the virtual characters approached toward the participants. Moreover, these response variables were inversely correlated with the number of visits, showing a typical adaptation effect. There was some evidence to suggest that the number of characters who simultaneously approached (one or four) was positively associated with the responses. Surprisingly there was no evidence of a difference in response between the humanoid characters and cylinders on the basis of this physiological data. It is suggested that the similarity in this quantitative arousal response to virtual characters and virtual objects might mask a profound difference in qualitative response, an interpretation supported by questionnaire and interview results. Overall the experiment supported the premise that people exhibit heightened physiological arousal the closer they are approached by virtual characters.

Towards a dynamic model of e-commerce: environmental, technological and organisational drivers of B2C along time

Despite the important benefits for firms of commercial initiatives on the Internet, e-commerce is still an emerging distribution channel, even in developed countries. Thus, more needs to be known about the mechanisms affecting its development. A large number of works have studied firms¿ e-commerce adoption from technological, intraorganizational, institutional, or other specific perspectives, but there is a need for adequately tested integrative frameworks. Hence, this work proposes and tests a model of firms¿ business-to-consumer (called B2C) e-commerce adoption that is founded on a holistic vision of the phenomenon. With this integrative approach, the authors analyze the joint influence of environmental, technological, and organizational factors; moreover, they evaluate this effect over time. Using various representative Spanish data sets covering the period 1996-2005, the findings demonstrate the suitability of the holistic framework. Likewise, some lessons are learned from the analysis of the key building blocks. In particular, the current study provides evidence for the debate about the effect of competitive pressure, since the findings show that competitive pressure disincentivizes e-commerce adoption in the long term. The results also show that the development or enrichment of the consumers¿ consumption patterns, the technological readiness of the market forces, the firm¿s global scope, and its competences in innovation continuously favor e-commerce adoption.

Le tour de France : état actuel de la classe ouvrière sous l'aspect moral, intellectuel, matériel / Flora Tristan... ; notes de Jules L. Puech

Collection : Archives et documents

Securing dynamic itineraries for mobile agent applications

In this paper we present a novel mechanism for the protection of dynamic itineraries for mobile agent applications. Itineraries that are decided as the agent goes are essential in complex applications based on mobile agents, but no approach has been presented until now to protect them. We have conceived a cryptographic scheme for shielding dynamic itineraries from tampering, impersonation and disclosure. By using trust strategically, our scheme provides a balanced trade-off between flexibility and security. Our protection scheme has been thought always bearing in mind a feasible implementation, and thus facilitates the development of applications that make use of it. An example application based on a real healthcare scenario is also presented to show its operation.

Secure Dynamic MANET On-demand (SEDYMO) Routing Protocol

This paper describes the state of the art of secure ad hoc routing protocols and presents SEDYMO, a mechanism to secure a dynamic multihop ad hoc routing protocol. The proposed solution defeats internal and external attacks usinga trustworthiness model based on a distributed certification authority. Digital signatures and hash chains are used to ensure the correctness of the protocol. The protocol is compared with other alternatives in terms of security strength, energy efficiency and time delay. Both computational and transmission costs are considered and it is shown that the secure protocol overhead is not a critical factor compared to the high network interface cost.

The barrel cortex as a model to study dynamic neuroglial interaction.

There is increasing evidence that glial cells, in particular astrocytes, interact dynamically with neurons. The well-known anatomofunctional organization of neurons in the barrel cortex offers a suitable and promising model to study such neuroglial interaction. This review summarizes and discusses recent in vitro as well as in vivo works demonstrating that astrocytes receive, integrate, and respond to neuronal signals. In addition, they are active elements of brain metabolism and exhibit a certain degree of plasticity that affects neuronal activity. Altogether these findings indicate that the barrel cortex presents glial compartments overlapping and interacting with neuronal compartments and that these properties help define barrels as functional and independent units. Finally, this review outlines how the use of the barrel cortex as a model might in the future help to address important questions related to dynamic neuroglia interaction.

Dynamic Runtime Variation and Branding in S60 Software

Diplomityössä tutkitaan keinoja brändätä ja varioida S60-ohjelmistoja dynaamisesti ja ajonaikaisesti. S60 on kehitysalusta, jota käyttävät useat puhelinvalmistajat ja heidän puhelimiaan käyttävät lukuisat eri operaattorit. Operaattorit haluavat puhelimiensa tai osan puhelimen sovelluksista erottuvan kilpailijoista heidän omalla brändillään ja tämän takia täytyy olla keinot joko koko puhelimen, tai valittujen sovellusten brändäykselle. Osa sovelluksista saatetaan haluta vaihtavan käytettyä brändiä sen käyttämien resurssien, kuten verkkopalvelimen, mukaan. Variointidataa tulee myös pystyä jakamaan eri sovellusten tai sovellusten osien kesken. Työssä esitellään Symbian käyttöjärjestelmä ja S60 kehitysympäristö, sekä pohditaan Symbianin turvallisuuskäytäntöjen tuomia haasteita variointidatan jakamiseen eri sovellusten välillä. Olemassaolevia variointitapoja tutkitaan työn mahdolliseksi pohjaksi. Työ sisältää esittelyn projektista, jossa kehitettiin erään S60 sovelluksen dynaaminen brändäystoteutus, joka myös mahdollistaa variointidatan jakamisen eri sovellusten kanssa.