Computing lower and upper expectations under epistemic independence

This paper investigates the computation of lower/upper expectations that must cohere with a collection of probabilistic assessments and a collection of judgements of epistemic independence. New algorithms, based on multilinear programming, are presented, both for independence among events and among random variables. Separation properties of graphical models are also investigated.

Relative Contribution of P5 and Hap Surface Proteins to Nontypable Haemophilus influenzae Interplay with the Host Upper and Lower Airways

Nontypable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) is a major cause of opportunistic respiratory tract disease, and initiates infection by colonizing the nasopharynx. Bacterial surface proteins play determining roles in the NTHi-airways interplay, but their specific and relative contribution to colonization and infection of the respiratory tract has not been addressed comprehensively. In this study, we focused on the ompP5 and hap genes, present in all H. influenzae genome sequenced isolates, and encoding the P5 and Hap surface proteins, respectively. We employed isogenic single and double mutants of the ompP5 and hap genes generated in the pathogenic strain NTHi375 to evaluate P5 and Hap contribution to biofilm growth under continuous flow, to NTHi adhesion, and invasion/phagocytosis on nasal, pharyngeal, bronchial, alveolar cultured epithelial cells and alveolar macrophages, and to NTHi murine pulmonary infection. We show that P5 is not required for bacterial biofilm growth, but it is involved in NTHi interplay with respiratory cells and in mouse lung infection. Mechanistically, P5NTHi375 is not a ligand for CEACAM1 or α5 integrin receptors. Hap involvement in NTHi375-host interaction was shown to be limited, despite promoting bacterial cell adhesion when expressed in H. influenzae RdKW20. We also show that Hap does not contribute to bacterial biofilm growth, and that its absence partially restores the deficiency in lung infection observed for the ΔompP5 mutant. Altogether, this work frames the relative importance of the P5 and Hap surface proteins in NTHi virulence.

Distal tephrochronology in volcanic regions: Challenges and insights from Kamchatkan lake sediments

Kamchatka is one of the world’s most active volcanic regions and has hosted many explosive eruptions during the Holocene. These eruptions had the potential to disperse tephra over wide areas, forming time-synchronous markers wherever those tephras are found. Recent research in Kamchatka has begun to focus on the geochemical analysis of individual glass shards in order to characterise tephra layers. We have applied this approach to the study of visible tephras from three lakes – one in central and two in northern Kamchatka – with the aim of identifying key tephras and potential issues in the application of distal (>100 km from an active volcano) tephra in volcanically complex regions. In total, 23 tephras from 22 tephra beds have been geochemically analysed, representing products from at least four volcanic systems in Kamchatka. We demonstrate that distal lake sediments in the region can yield reliable tephrostratigraphies, capturing tephra from eruptions that have the greatest potential to disperse volcanic ash beyond the region. We draw attention to issues relating to correlating and distinguishing key marker horizons from the highly active Shiveluch Volcano, namely the need to ensure inter-lab comparability of geochemical data and good chronological control of the proximal and distal tephras. Importantly, we have also extended the known distribution of two key tephra isochrons from the Ksudach volcano. Our work contributes valuable glass geochemical on data several key marker beds that will facilitate future tephra and palaeoenvironmental research within and beyond Kamchatka.

Exceptionally Long Distance Transport of Volcanic Ash: Implications for Stratigraphy, Hazards and the Sourcing of Distal Tephra Deposits

Cryptotephras (tephra not visible to the naked eye) form the foundation of the tephrostratigraphic frameworks used in Europe to date and correlate widely distributed geologic, paleoenvironmental and archaeological records. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012) established the potential for developing a similar crypto-tephrostratigraphy across eastern North America by identifying multiple tephra, including the White River Ash (east; WRAe), St. Helens We and East Lake, in a peat core located in Newfoundland. Following on from this work, several ongoing projects have examined additional peat cores from Michigan, New York State, Maine, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to build a tephrostratigraphic framework for this region. Using the precedent set by recent research by Jensen et al.(in press) that correlated the Alaskan WRAe to the European cryptotephra AD860B, unknown tephras identified in this work were not necessarily assumed to be from "expected" source areas (e.g. the Cascades). Here we present several examples of the preservation of tephra layers with an intercontinental distribution (i.e. WRAe and Ksudach 1), from relatively small magnitude events (i.e. St. Helens layer T, Mono Crater), and the first example of a Mexican ash in the NE (Volcan Ceboruco, Jala pumice). There are several implications of the identification of these units. These far-travelled ashes: (1) highlight the need to consider "ultra" distal source volcanoes for unknown cryptotephra deposits,. (2) present an opportunity for physical volcanologists to examine why some eruptions have an exceptional distribution of ash that is not necessarily controlled by the magnitude of the event. (3) complicate the idea of using tephrostratigraphic frameworks to understand the frequency of eruptions towards aiding hazard planning and prediction (e.g. Swindles et al., 2011). (4) show that there is a real potential to link tropical and mid to high-latitude paleoenvironmental records. Jensen et al. (in press) Transatlantic correlation of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012). High-precision ultra-distal Holocene tephrochronology in North America. Quaternary Science Reviews, 52, 6-11. Swindles et al. (2011). A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe. Geology, 39, 887-890.

A sedimentologic and 14C dating study of five eastern Australian upper continental slope submarine landslides

Sedimentologic and AMS 14C age data are reported for calcareous hemipelagic mud samples taken from gravity cores collected at sites within, or adjacent to five submarine landslides identified with multibeam bathymetry data on the Nerrang Plateau segment and surrounding canyons of eastern Australia's continental slope (Bribie Bowl, Coolangatta-2, Coolangatta-1, Cudgen and Byron). Sediments are comprised of mixtures of calcareous and terrigenous clay (10-20%), silt (50-65%) and sand (15-40%) and are generally uniform in appearance. Their carbonate contents vary between and 17% and 22% by weight while organic carbon contents are less than 10% by weight. Dating of conformably deposited material identified in ten of the twelve cores indicates a range of sediment accumulation rates between 0.017mka-1 and 0.2 mka-1 which are consistent with previous estimates reported for this area. One slide-adjacent core, and four within-landslide cores present depositional hiatus surfaces located at depths of 0.8 to 2.2 meters below the present-day seafloor and identified by a sharp, colour-change boundary; discernable but small increases in sediment stiffness; and a slight increase in sediment bulk density of 0.1 gcm-3. Distinct gaps in AMS 14C age of at least 20ka are recorded across these boundary surfaces. Examination of sub-bottom profiler records of transects through three of the within-slide core-sites and their nearby landslide scarps available for the Coolangatta-1 and Cudgen slides indicate that: 1) the youngest identifiable sediment layer reflectors upslope of these slides, terminate on and are truncated by slide rupture surfaces; and 2) there is no obvious evidence in the sub-bottom profiles for a post-slide sediment layer draped over or otherwise burying slide ruptures or exposed slide detachment surfaces. This suggests that both these submarine landslides are geologically recent and suggests that the hiatus surfaces identified in Coolangatta-1's and Cudgen's within-slide cores are either: a) erosional features that developed after the occurrence of the landslide in which case the hiatus surface age provides a minimum age for landslide occurrence or b) detachment surfaces from which slabs of near-surface sediment were removed during landsliding in which case the post-hiatus sediment dates indicates approximately when landsliding occurred. In either case, it is reasonable to suggest that these two spatially adjacent slides occurred penecontemporaneously approximately 20,000 years ago.

Modeling the Rossiter-McLaughlin Effect: Impact of the Convective Center-to-limb Variations in the Stellar Photosphere

bservations of the Rossiter–McLaughlin (RM) effect provide information on star–planet alignments, which can inform planetary migration and evolution theories. Here, we go beyond the classical RM modeling and explore the impact of a convective blueshift that varies across the stellar disk and non-Gaussian stellar photospheric profiles. We simulated an aligned hot Jupiter with a four-day orbit about a Sun-like star and injected center-to-limb velocity (and profile shape) variations based on radiative 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar surface convection. The residuals between our modeling and classical RM modeling were dependent on the intrinsic profile width and v sin i; the amplitude of the residuals increased with increasing v sin i and with decreasing intrinsic profile width. For slowly rotating stars the center-to-limb convective variation dominated the residuals (with amplitudes of 10 s of cm s−1 to ~1 m s−1); however, for faster rotating stars the dominant residual signature was due a non-Gaussian intrinsic profile (with amplitudes from 0.5 to 9 m s−1). When the impact factor was 0, neglecting to account for the convective center-to-limb variation led to an uncertainty in the obliquity of ~10°–20°, even though the true v sin i was known. Additionally, neglecting to properly model an asymmetric intrinsic profile had a greater impact for more rapidly rotating stars (e.g., v sin i = 6 km s−1) and caused systematic errors on the order of ~20° in the measured obliquities. Hence, neglecting the impact of stellar surface convection may bias star–planet alignment measurements and consequently theories on planetary migration and evolution.

Oral Bisphosphonate Exposure and the Risk of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers

The association between oral bisphosphonate use and upper gastrointestinal cancer has been controversial. Therefore, we examined the association with esophageal and gastric cancer within the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California population. A total of 1,011 cases of esophageal (squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma) and 1,923 cases of gastric adenocarcinoma (cardia, non-cardia and other) diagnosed between 1997 and 2011 from the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California cancer registry were matched to 49,886 and 93,747 controls, respectively. Oral bisphosphonate prescription fills at least one year prior to the index date were extracted. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the associations between prospectively evaluated oral bisphosphonate use with incident esophageal and gastric cancer diagnoses with adjustment for potential confounders. After adjustment for potential confounders, no significant associations were found for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.52), esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR 0.68; 95% CI: 0.37, 1.24), or gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59, 1.18), but we observed an adverse association with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 1.64; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.50). In conclusion, we observed no association between oral bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer risk within a large community-based population. A significant association was detected with gastric cardia and other adenocarcinoma risk, although this needs to be replicated.