Modelling the dynamics of phytoplankton with the needs of the end user in mind

How to regulate phytoplankton growth in water supply reservoirs has continued to occupy managers and strategists for some fifty years or so, now, and mathematical models have always featured in their design and operational constraints. In recent years, rather more sophisticated simulation models have begun to be available and these, ideally, purport to provide the manager with improved forecasting of plankton blooms, the likely species and the sort of decision support that might permit management choices to be selected with increased confidence. This account describes the adaptation and application of one such model, PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) to the problems of plankton growth in reservoirs. This article supposes no background knowledge of the main algal types; neither does it attempt to catalogue the problems that their abundance may cause in lakes and reservoirs.

Informações georreferenciadas no suporte a decisão em arqueologia brasileira: proposta para uma carta arqueológica digital.

O desenvolvimento do projeto consistiu na modelagem da informação para gestão em arqueologia numa base de dados convergente de informação, caracterizada por um ambiente cartográfico digital, integrando mapas temáticos e base de dados alfanumérica num modelo protótipo e interativo para ajudar a integrar as informações na gestão em arqueologia, permitindo o registro, armazenamento e visualização da informação arqueológica correlacionada a mapas temáticos.

A análise ambiental integrada para o estudo de fragilidade turística: um estudo de caso para o município de Duas Barras (RJ)

O turismo na natureza é uma das modalidades de turismo que mais tem crescido no Brasil, sendo visto como alternativa econômica para municípios de médio e pequeno porte que possuem Unidades de Conservação em seus territórios ou áreas com remanescentes florestais ou ainda áreas de interesse geológico, geomorfológico, concentração hídrica que possam atrair o turista. A preocupação quanto ao sustento da atividade turística desta categoria ocorre, quando o ambiente natural na qual se pretende instalar os empreendimentos turísticos não possui estudos pretéritos sobre o meio físico e nem instrumento legal de planejamento ambiental que apoie a tomada de decisão. Neste contexto, esta dissertação versa sobre o estudo da fragilidade turística do município de Duas Barras Rio de Janeiro com objetivos de balizar os resultados obtidos, com estudos pretéritos sobre potencialidades turísticas da região, assim como os empreendimentos turísticos já instalados e verificando se há conformidade entre o ambiente explorado e a atividade turística em curso. Como metodologia, a presente pesquisa utilizou técnicas de fragilidade ambiental desenvolvida de Ross (2010), a análise da fragilidade turística teve adaptações com base em Costa (2009), o modelo de indicadores turísticos de Barbosa (2009) e os dados sobre a potencialidade turística local foram extraídos de Goes (2007). Utilização de técnicas de geoprocessamento foram fundamentais para desenvolvimento de análises espaciais, geográficas e a visão integrada dos dados. Como resultados, foram gerados mapas temáticos do meio físico, socioeconomia e a avaliação das atuais instalações turísticas na região.

Inserting innovations in-service

Military platforms have exceptionally long lifecycles and given the state of defense budgets there is a significant trend in sustaining the operational capability of legacy platforms for much greater periods than originally designed. In the context of through-life management, one of the key questions is how to manage the flow of technology for platform modernization during the in-service phase of the lifecycle? Inserting technological innovations in-service is achieved through technology insertion processes. Technology insertion is the pre-eminent activity for both maintaining and enhancing the functional capability of a platform especially given the likely changes in future military operations, the pace of change in technology and with the increasing focus on lifecycle cost reduction. This chapter provides an introduction to technology insertion together with an overview of the key issues that practitioners are faced with. As an aid to planning technology insertion projects, a decision-support framework is presented. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Project neptune: Improved operation of water distribution networks

Water service providers (WSPs) in the UK have statutory obligations to supply drinking water to all customers that complies with increasingly stringent water quality regulations and minimum flow and pressure criteria. At the same time, the industry is required by regulators and investors to demonstrate increasing operational efficiency and to meet a wide range of performance criteria that are expected to improve year-on-year. Most WSPs have an ideal for improving the operation of their water supply systems based on increased knowledge and understanding of their assets and a shift to proactive management followed by steadily increasing degrees of system monitoring, automation and optimisation. The fundamental mission is, however, to ensure security of supply, with no interruptions and water quality of the highest standard at the tap. Unfortunately, advanced technologies required to fully understand, manage and automate water supply system operation either do not yet exist, are only partially evolved, or have not yet been reliably proven for live water distribution systems. It is this deficiency that the project NEPTUNE seeks to address by carrying out research into 3 main areas; these are: data and knowledge management; pressure management (including energy management); and the associated complex decision support systems on which to base interventions. The 3-year project started in April of 2007 and has already resulted in a number of research findings under the three main research priority areas (RPA). The paper summarises in greater detail the overall project objectives, the RPA activities and the areas of research innovation that are being undertaken in this major, UK collaborative study. Copyright 2009 ASCE.

Analysis of case histories on deep excavations in marine clay

Two case histories on deep excavation of marine clay are used to study the use of a decision-making tool based on a new deign method called the Mobilized Strength Design (MSD) method which allows the designer to use a simple method of predicting ground displacements during deep excavation. This application can approximately satisfy both safety and serviceability requirements by predicting stresses and displacements under working conditions by introducing the concept of "Mobilizable soil strength". The new method accommodates a number of features which are important to design of underground construction between retaining walls, including different deformation mechanism in different stages of excavation. The influence of wall depth, wall flexibility and stratified ground are the major focus of this paper. These developments should make it possible for a design engineer to take informed decisions on the influence of wall stiffness, or on the need for a jet-grouted base slab, for example, without having to conduct project-specific Finite Element Analysis.

Solving problems in production scheduling

Traditionally, production scheduling has been viewed as a problem-solving task that involves a single problem - generation of a suitable schedule. This paper presents an alternative model in which individual difficulties are viewed as problems, and the task is to maintain a suitable schedule by resolving as many of these problems as possible. Decision support software is described that has facilities for defining policies to handle numerous minor problems and complete problem-solving strategies to deal with major problems. The paper then discusses the potential for this style of decision support to improve the performance of human schedulers. © 1995.

基于InCoME的软件成本估算方法及支撑工具

软件成本估算领域经过四十余年的发展，涌现出一大批估算理论与方法，但都没有在现实环境中的软件企业中得到广泛应用，在项目早期进行软件成本估算仍旧是一件非常难的任务。由于估算模型的复杂性，缺乏相关的自动化的支撑工具及在现实软件企业中进行成本估算的应用研究是造成这一局面的一个重要原因。 本文从解决现实估算问题出发，提出了基于支撑工具的软件成本估算应用的具体框架。使用专家知识初始化模型，收集历史数据进行模型校准，并使用jack-knife交叉验证对模型进行精度分析。在建立可接受的模型后，收集待估算项目规模和成本因子数据，基于集成成本建模与估算（InCoME）方法，提供COCOMO、类比、回归等多种估算方法的支持。估算结果结合不确定性分析和风险分析，给项目计划和决策提供参考。成本估算应用框架形成一套完整和规范的流程，是一个现实可行的软件成本估算的解决方案。本文的另一贡献在于定制开发此应用框架的支撑工具，即集成成本建模与估算工具。在分析调研主流的软件成本估算工具的基础上，为配合估算应用框架，使用eclipse RCP和关系数据库，开发出层次清晰、可扩展性强、可维护性高、易升级易部署、界面友好的支撑工具。我们将基于支撑工具的软件成本估算应用框架应用于现实中的软件企业进行经验研究，经验研究结果表明，企业的软件成本估算得到了明显改善，支撑工具也被很好的接受。

森林流域单元水文模型的构建与应用

目前全球缺水、水污染、洪涝灾害以及水土流失仍然非常严重，尤其在我国北方地区。流域水文模型可用来进行不同需水管理的情景分析，为解决我国水问题提供科学依据。分布式水文模型是流域水文模型的发展方向，具有显著特点：1）应用前景广泛，不仅可以模拟流域水文过程，还可以协助模拟泥沙或污染物的运移过程，为水利工程设计、水土保持、环境保护等领域提供技术支持；2）能够预测流域土地利用或气候变化下的流域水文响应过程变化，为管理部门提供决策支持；3）模型所需要的参数全部具有物理意义，可通过实际测量确定，适合模拟实测系列较短或是无观测流域的水文过程；4）对于目前国际水文界的前沿问题—水文尺度转换提供了一种有效的解决途径。 然而分布式水文模型还不完善，如1)真实性问题。对一些水文过程和边界条件还不确定。2)尺度转换问题。目前很少考虑尺度对参数有效性的影响。3)检验问题。还无法判断对有些难以测量的水文状态变量的模拟正确与否。4)计算时间和数据存储的问题。有些分布式水文模型虽然具有很强的水文物理基础和完善的模型结构，但是计算时间过长和(或)数据存储过大，难以应用。上述问题的核心就是对分布式水文模型的核心—单元水文模型的研究不够，需要为进一步完善单元水文模型进行研究。 本文采用饱和入渗理论、Saint-Venant方程、Richards方程、Penman-Monteith方程等等构建了以有限差分法求解的适用于森林流域的单元水文模型，并通过实验室模拟试验和坡地径流场资料进行了验证，主要结论为： 通过不同坡度和不同雨强下的室内坡面产汇流实验模拟，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流和壤中流过程与实测过程基本一致，峰现时间、径流历时、峰值流量、出流总量模拟值与实测值的相对误差均较小，基本小于10%。模型的模拟精度较高，实用性较强，为深入研究壤中流机制和改进流域降雨-径流模型提供了理论依据。 通过坡地径流观测场实测资料的验证，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流过程精度较高，累计流量的精度更高于小时过程的精度，离差系数、效率系数、确定系数均较理想，具有应用价值，有助于改善分布式水文模型在森林流域的模拟效果。

岷江上游农林复合景观管理优先度评价

结合前期研究共辨识出10项景观管理影响因子,依据其作用的性质和特点,将其分为4大类参数,通过NetWeaver模型构建了基于模糊逻辑的优先度评价知识库,在EMDS(Ecosystem Management Decision Support system)和ARCGIS9.x环境下,对4类景观管理影响因子的优先度进行了评价。结果显示:1)可行性因子综合优先度评价结果为除ws3、ws6、ws8和ws9 4个子流域的优先度为低外,其余6个子流域优先度居于中等优先水平;2)有效性因子优先度综合评价结果,ws1、ws9和ws10 3个子流域优先度为强,ws8优先度最低,其余子流域为中等优先;3)景观综合结果除ws1~ws33个子流域属于强外,其余子流域优先度为低;4)所有影响因子的综合结果为ws8子流域优先度最低,其余部分优先度居于中等。

旱地作物需水量预报决策辅助系统

旱地作物需水量预报决策辅助系统是利用人工智能技术 ,在 Penman公式的基础上结合现有西北旱区的农学知识、模型以及经验进行系统集成而建立的智能化计算机软件系统 ,该系统是西北地区节水农业专家系统的一个子系统。在生产实践中可为陕西关中地区的冬小麦、夏玉米的栽培作出灌溉方案的决策咨询。

数据驱动的多Agent装备器材保障决策支持系统

为提高复杂网络环境和任务需求下器材保障的智能化水平,提出了一个数据驱动的多Agent器材保障决策支持系统DSS(decision support system),系统中的数据、模型以及Agent可分布在不同的网络节点上,高层Agent可由粒度更小的子Agent或Agent部件组合而成;系统中的各类智能Agent相互协作,共同完成异构数据集成、多维数据集构造、器材保障模型挖掘、复杂规划问题求解,以及保障方案自动生成等任务,从而有效降低了系统开发的难度,提高了Agent协作的灵活性。研究结果表明,该系统架构能够显著提升器材保障决策方案的质量和效率。

宏观经济的决策支持系统

本文介绍了一个用于宏观经济决策的决策支持系统的内容和特点。论述了处理经济系统时建立知识库系统的必要性。着重介绍了用于宏观经济的知识库系统以及建立在这个系统基础之上的整个决策支持系统的结构。最后简述了这个系统的发展方向。

基于面向对象方法的决策支持系统

决策支持系统(DSS-Decision Support Systems)作为信息系统的高级形式得到了广泛重视,但同时也面临着很多问题。本文仔细剖析了这些问题,讨论以面向对象OO(Object Oriented)的方法进行DSS设计,最后提出了一个基于OO方法的DSS结构。