Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Meta-analysis of microarray data identifies GAS6 expression as an independent predictor of poor survival in ovarian cancer

Seeking new biomarkers for epithelial ovarian cancer, the fifth most common cause of death from all cancers in women and the leading cause of death from gynaecological malignancies, we performed a meta-analysis of three independent studies and compared the results in regard to clinicopathological parameters. This analysis revealed that GAS6 was highly expressed in ovarian cancer and therefore was selected as our candidate of choice. GAS6 encodes a secreted protein involved in physiological processes including cell proliferation, chemotaxis, and cell survival. We performed immunohistochemistry on various ovarian cancer tissues and found that GAS6 expression was elevated in tumour tissue samples compared to healthy control samples (P < 0.0001). In addition, GAS6 expression was also higher in tumours from patients with residual disease compared to those without. Our data propose GAS6 as an independent predictor of poor survival, suggesting GAS6, both on the mRNA and on the protein level, as a potential biomarker for ovarian cancer. In clinical practice, the staining of a tumour biopsy for GAS6 may be useful to assess cancer prognosis and/or to monitor disease progression.

Improving national hospice/palliative care service symptom outcomes systematically through point-of-care data collection, structured feedback and benchmarking

PURPOSE Every health care sector including hospice/palliative care needs to systematically improve services using patient-defined outcomes. Data from the national Australian Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration aims to define whether hospice/palliative care patients' outcomes and the consistency of these outcomes have improved in the last 3 years. METHODS Data were analysed by clinical phase (stable, unstable, deteriorating, terminal). Patient-level data included the Symptom Assessment Scale and the Palliative Care Problem Severity Score. Nationally collected point-of-care data were anchored for the period July-December 2008 and subsequently compared to this baseline in six 6-month reporting cycles for all services that submitted data in every time period (n = 30) using individual longitudinal multi-level random coefficient models. RESULTS Data were analysed for 19,747 patients (46 % female; 85 % cancer; 27,928 episodes of care; 65,463 phases). There were significant improvements across all domains (symptom control, family care, psychological and spiritual care) except pain. Simultaneously, the interquartile ranges decreased, jointly indicating that better and more consistent patient outcomes were being achieved. CONCLUSION These are the first national hospice/palliative care symptom control performance data to demonstrate improvements in clinical outcomes at a service level as a result of routine data collection and systematic feedback.

Separating resource rents from intra-marginal rents in fisheries economics survey data

Economic surveys of fisheries are undertaken in several countries as a means of assessing the economic performance of their fisheries. The level of economic profits accruing in the fishery can be estimated from the average economic profits of the boats surveyed. Economic profits consist of two components—resource rent and intra-marginal rent. From a fisheries management perspective, the key indicator of performance is the level of resource rent being generated in the fishery. Consequently, these different components need to be separated out. In this paper, a means of separating out the rent components is identified for a heterogeneous fishery. This is applied to the multi-purpose fleet operating in the English Channel. The paper demonstrates that failing to separate out these two components may result in a misrepresentation of the economic performance of the fishery.

Simulation-based density estimation for time series using covariate data

This paper proposes a simulation-based density estimation technique for time series that exploits information found in covariate data. The method can be paired with a large range of parametric models used in time series estimation. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate attractive finite sample properties for a range of well-known econometric and financial applications.

Large-scale analysis of soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data

Although the collection of player and ball tracking data is fast becoming the norm in professional sports, large-scale mining of such spatiotemporal data has yet to surface. In this paper, given an entire season's worth of player and ball tracking data from a professional soccer league (approx 400,000,000 data points), we present a method which can conduct both individual player and team analysis. Due to the dynamic, continuous and multi-player nature of team sports like soccer, a major issue is aligning player positions over time. We present a "role-based" representation that dynamically updates each player's relative role at each frame and demonstrate how this captures the short-term context to enable both individual player and team analysis. We discover role directly from data by utilizing a minimum entropy data partitioning method and show how this can be used to accurately detect and visualize formations, as well as analyze individual player behavior.

Identifying team style in soccer using formations learned from spatiotemporal tracking data

To the trained-eye, experts can often identify a team based on their unique style of play due to their movement, passing and interactions. In this paper, we present a method which can accurately determine the identity of a team from spatiotemporal player tracking data. We do this by utilizing a formation descriptor which is found by minimizing the entropy of role-specific occupancy maps. We show how our approach is significantly better at identifying different teams compared to standard measures (i.e., shots, passes etc.). We demonstrate the utility of our approach using an entire season of Prozone player tracking data from a top-tier professional soccer league.

Using digital projection to evoke aesthetic ideas in performance

This practice-led research project investigated the use of digital projection as a compositional tool in live performance. The project was carried out through the creation of a new Australian theatre work called Genesis that poetically integrated digital projection and live performance. The investigation produced a framework for creating powerful theatrical sequences where the themes and ideas of the show were embedded inside particular performance gestures prompting an expanded aesthetic perception of the content.

Can mesenchymal stromal cells differentiate into corneal cells? A systematic review of published data

The majority of stem cell therapies for corneal repair are based upon the use of progenitor cells isolated from corneal tissue, but a growing body of literature suggests a role for mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) isolated from non-corneal tissues. While the mechanism of MSC action seems likely to involve their immuno-modulatory properties, claims have emerged of MSC transdifferentiation into corneal cells. Substantial differences in methodology and experimental outcomes, however, have prompted us to perform a systematic review of the published data. Key questions used in our analysis included; the choice of markers used to assess corneal cell phenotype, the techniques employed to detect these markers, adequate reporting of controls, and tracking of MSC when studied in vivo. Our search of the literature revealed 28 papers published since 2006, with half appearing since 2012. MSC cultures established from bone marrow and adipose tissue have been best studied (22 papers). Critically, only 11 studies employed appropriate markers of corneal cell phenotype, along with necessary controls. Ten out of these 11 papers, however, contained positive evidence of corneal cell marker expression by MSC. The clearest evidence is observed with respect to expression of markers for corneal stromal cells by MSC. In comparison, the evidence for MSC conversion into either corneal epithelial cells or corneal endothelial cells is often inconsistent or inconclusive. Our analysis clarifies this emerging body of literature and provides guidance for future studies of MSC differentiation within the cornea as well as other tissues.

Health Information Exchange in the wake of ‘big data’ paradigm – the theme is from ‘quality of information to quality of life’

Health Information Exchange (HIE) is an interesting phenomenon. It is a patient centric health and/or medical information management scenario enhanced by integration of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). While health information systems are repositioning complex system directives, in the wake of the ‘big data’ paradigm, extracting quality information is challenging. It is anticipated that in this talk, ICT enabled healthcare scenarios with big data analytics will be shared. In addition, research and development regarding big data analytics, such as current trends of using these technologies for health care services and critical research challenges when extracting quality of information to improve quality of life will be discussed.

When does Google hand over your data to governments?

Governments around the world want to know a lot about who we are and what we’re doing online and they want communications companies to help them find it. We don’t know a lot about when companies hand over this data, but we do know that it’s becoming increasingly common.

Automated power semiconductor switching performance feature extraction from experimental double-pulse waveform data

Double-pulse tests are commonly used as a method for assessing the switching performance of power semiconductor switches in a clamped inductive switching application. Data generated from these tests are typically in the form of sampled waveform data captured using an oscilloscope. In cases where it is of interest to explore a multi-dimensional parameter space and corresponding result space it is necessary to reduce the data into key performance metrics via feature extraction. This paper presents techniques for the extraction of switching performance metrics from sampled double-pulse waveform data. The reported techniques are applied to experimental data from characterisation of a cascode gate drive circuit applied to power MOSFETs.

Population variation in biomonitoring data for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) : an examination of multiple population-based datasets for application to Australian pooled biomonitoring data

Background Australian national biomonitoring for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) relies upon age-specific pooled serum samples to characterize central tendencies of concentrations but does not provide estimates of upper bound concentrations. This analysis compares population variation from biomonitoring datasets from the US, Canada, Germany, Spain, and Belgium to identify and test patterns potentially useful for estimating population upper bound reference values for the Australian population. Methods Arithmetic means and the ratio of the 95th percentile to the arithmetic mean (P95:mean) were assessed by survey for defined age subgroups for three polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 138, 153, and 180), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), p,p-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), 2,2′,4,4′ tetrabrominated diphenylether (PBDE 47), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). Results Arithmetic mean concentrations of each analyte varied widely across surveys and age groups. However, P95:mean ratios differed to a limited extent, with no systematic variation across ages. The average P95:mean ratios were 2.2 for the three PCBs and HCB; 3.0 for DDE; 2.0 and 2.3 for PFOA and PFOS, respectively. The P95:mean ratio for PBDE 47 was more variable among age groups, ranging from 2.7 to 4.8. The average P95:mean ratios accurately estimated age group-specific P95s in the Flemish Environmental Health Survey II and were used to estimate the P95s for the Australian population by age group from the pooled biomonitoring data. Conclusions Similar population variation patterns for POPs were observed across multiple surveys, even when absolute concentrations differed widely. These patterns can be used to estimate population upper bounds when only pooled sampling data are available.

Profiling : an application assignment approach for green data centers

In the past few years, there has been a steady increase in the attention, importance and focus of green initiatives related to data centers. While various energy aware measures have been developed for data centers, the requirement of improving the performance efficiency of application assignment at the same time has yet to be fulfilled. For instance, many energy aware measures applied to data centers maintain a trade-off between energy consumption and Quality of Service (QoS). To address this problem, this paper presents a novel concept of profiling to facilitate offline optimization for a deterministic application assignment to virtual machines. Then, a profile-based model is established for obtaining near-optimal allocations of applications to virtual machines with consideration of three major objectives: energy cost, CPU utilization efficiency and application completion time. From this model, a profile-based and scalable matching algorithm is developed to solve the profile-based model. The assignment efficiency of our algorithm is then compared with that of the Hungarian algorithm, which does not scale well though giving the optimal solution.