A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

Can smaller-scale comprehensive cancer centers provide outstanding care in abdominal and thoracic pediatric solid tumor surgery? Results of a 14-year retrospective single-center analysis.

PURPOSE: Quality of care and its measurement represent a considerable challenge for pediatric smaller-scale comprehensive cancer centers (pSSCC) providing surgical oncology services. It remains unclear whether center size and/or yearly case-flow numbers influence the quality of care, and therefore impact outcomes for this population of patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a 14-year, retrospective, single-center analysis, assessing adherence to treatment protocols and surgical adverse events as quality indicators in abdominal and thoracic pediatric solid tumor surgery. RESULTS: Forty-eight patients, enrolled in a research-associated treatment protocol, underwent 51 cancer-oriented surgical procedures. All the protocols contain precise technical criteria, indications, and instructions for tumor surgery. Overall, compliance with such items was very high, with 997/1,035 items (95 %) meeting protocol requirements. There was no surgical mortality. Twenty-one patients (43 %) had one or more complications, for a total of 34 complications (66 % of procedures). Overall, 85 % of complications were grade 1 or 2 according to Clavien-Dindo classification requiring observation or minor medical treatment. Case-sample and outcome/effectiveness data were comparable to published series. Overall, our data suggest that even with the modest caseload of a pSSCC within a Swiss tertiary academic hospital, compliance with international standards can be very high, and the incidence of adverse events can be kept minimal. CONCLUSION: Open and objective data sharing, and discussion between pSSCCs, will ultimately benefit our patient populations. Our study is an initial step towards the enhancement of critical self-review and quality-of-care measurements in this setting.

A pilot assessment of alpha-stat vs pH-stat arterial blood gas analysis after cardiac arrest.

PURPOSE: Resuscitated cardiac arrest (CA) patients typically receive therapeutic hypothermia, but arterial blood gases (ABGs) are often assessed after adjustment to 37°C (alpha-stat) instead of actual body temperature (pH-stat). We sought to compare alpha-stat and pH-stat assessment of Pao2 and Paco2 in such patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using ABG data obtained during the first 24 hours of intensive care unit admission, we determined the impact of measured alpha vs calculated pH-stat on Pao2 and Paco2 on patient classification and outcomes for CA patients. RESULTS: We assessed 1013 ABGs from 120 CA patients with a median age of patients 66 years (interquartile range, 50-76). Median alpha-stat Pao2 changed from 122 (95-156) to 107 (82-143) mm Hg with pH-stat and median Paco2 from 39 (34-46) to 35 (30-41) mm Hg (both P < .001). Using the categories of hyperoxemia, normoxemia, and hypoxemia, pH-stat estimation of Pao2 reclassified approximately 20% of patients. Using the categories of hypercapnia, normocapnia, and hypocapnia, pH stat estimation of Paco2 reclassified approximately 40% of patients. The mortality of patients in different Pao2 and Paco2 categories was similar for pH-stat and alpha-stat. CONCLUSIONS: Using the pH-stat method, fewer resuscitated CA patients admitted to intensive care unit were classified as hyperoxemic or hypercapnic compared with alpha-stat. These findings suggest an impact of ABG assessment methodology on Pao2, Paco2, and patient classification but not on associated outcomes.

Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality.

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.

Impact of bedside open lung biopsies on the management of mechanically ventilated immunocompromised patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome of unknown etiology.

BACKGROUND: Open lung biopsy (OLB) is helpful in the management of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of unknown etiology. We determine the impact of surgical lung biopsies performed at the bedside on the management of patients with ARDS. METHODS: We reviewed all consecutive cases of patients with ARDS who underwent a surgical OLB at the bedside in a medical intensive care unit between 1993 and 2005. RESULTS: Biopsies were performed in 19 patients mechanically ventilated for ARDS of unknown etiology despite extensive diagnostic process and empirical therapeutic trials. Among them, 17 (89%) were immunocompromised and 10 patients experienced hematological malignancies. Surgical biopsies were obtained after a median (25%-75%) mechanical ventilation of 5 (2-11) days; mean (+/-SD) Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio was 119.3 (+/-34.2) mm Hg. Histologic diagnoses were obtained in all cases and were specific in 13 patients (68%), including 9 (47%) not previously suspected. Immediate complications (26%) were local (pneumothorax, minimal bleeding) without general or respiratory consequences. The biopsy resulted in major changes in management in 17 patients (89%). It contributed to a decision to limit care in 12 of 17 patients who died. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm that surgical OLB may have an important impact on the management of patients with ARDS of unknown etiology after extensive diagnostic process. The procedure can be performed at the bedside, is safe, and has a high diagnostic yield leading to major changes in management, including withdrawal of vital support, in the majority of patients.

Brain Tissue Hypoxia is a Strong Predictor of Outcome after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Independent from Elevated Intracranial Pressure

Introduction: Low brain tissue oxygen pressure (PbtO2) is associated with worse outcome in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is unclear whether brain tissue hypoxia is merely a marker of injury severity or a predictor of prognosis, independent from intracranial pressure (ICP) and injury severity. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that brain tissue hypoxia was an independent predictor of outcome in patients wih severe TBI, irrespective of elevated ICP and of the severity of cerebral and systemic injury. Methods: This observational study was conducted at the Neurological ICU, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, an academic level I trauma center. Patients admitted with severe TBI who had PbtO2 and ICP monitoring were included in the study. PbtO2, ICP, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP = MAP-ICP) were monitored continuously and recorded prospectively every 30 min. Using linear interpolation, duration and cumulative dose (area under the curve, AUC) of brain tissue hypoxia (PbtO2 < 15 mm Hg), elevated ICP >20 mm Hg and low CPP <60 mm Hg were calculated, and the association with outcome at hospital discharge, dichotomized as good (Glasgow Outcome Score [GOS] 4-5) vs. poor (GOS 1-3), was analyzed. Results: A total of 103 consecutive patients, monitored for an average of 5 days, was studied. Brain tissue hypoxia was observed in 66 (64%) patients despite ICP was < 20 mm Hg and CPP > 60 mm Hg (72 +/- 39% and 49 +/- 41% of brain hypoxic time, respectively). Compared with patients with good outcome, those with poor outcome had a longer duration of brain hypoxia (1.7 +/- 3.7 vs. 8.3 +/- 15.9 hrs, P<0.01), as well as a longer duration (11.5 +/- 16.5 vs. 21.6 +/- 29.6 hrs, P=0.03) and a greater cumulative dose (56 +/- 93 vs. 143 +/- 218 mm Hg*hrs, P<0.01) of elevated ICP. By multivariable logistic regression, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (OR, 0.83, 95% CI: 0.70-0.99, P=0.04), Marshall CT score (OR 2.42, 95% CI: 1.42-4.11, P<0.01), APACHE II (OR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.43, P=0.03), and the duration of brain tissue hypoxia (OR 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01-1.27; P=0.04) were all significantly associated with poor outcome. No independent association was found between the AUC for elevated ICP and outcome (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.97-1.02, P=0.11) in our prospective cohort. Conclusions: In patients with severe TBI, brain tissue hypoxia is frequent, despite normal ICP and CPP, and is associated with poor outcome, independent of intracranial hypertension and the severity of cerebral and systemic injury. Our findings indicate that PbtO2 is a strong physiologic prognostic marker after TBI. Further study is warranted to examine whether PbtO2-directed therapy improves outcome in severely head-injured patients .

Factors influencing the adoption of an innovation: an examination of the uptake of the Canadian Heart Health Kit (HHK)

BACKGROUND: There is an emerging knowledge base on the effectiveness of strategies to close the knowledge-practice gap. However, less is known about how attributes of an innovation and other contextual and situational factors facilitate and impede an innovation's adoption. The Healthy Heart Kit (HHK) is a risk management and patient education resource for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and promotion of cardiovascular health. Although previous studies have demonstrated the HHK's content validity and practical utility, no published study has examined physicians' uptake of the HHK and factors that shape its adoption. OBJECTIVES: Conceptually informed by Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation theory, and Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study had two objectives: (1) to determine if specific attributes of the HHK as well as contextual and situational factors are associated with physicians' intention and actual usage of the HHK kit; and (2), to determine if any contextual and situational factors are associated with individual or environmental barriers that prevent the uptake of the HHK among those physicians who do not plan to use the kit. METHODS: A sample of 153 physicians who responded to an invitation letter sent to all family physicians in the province of Alberta, Canada were recruited for the study. Participating physicians were sent a HHK, and two months later a study questionnaire assessed primary factors on the physicians' clinical practice, attributes of the HHK (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, observability), confidence and control using the HHK, barriers to use, and individual attributes. All measures were used in path analysis, employing a causal model based on Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and Theory of Planned Behaviour. RESULTS: 115 physicians (follow up rate of 75%) completed the questionnaire. Use of the HHK was associated with intention to use the HHK, relative advantage, and years of experience. Relative advantage and the observability of the HHK benefits were also significantly associated with physicians' intention to use the HHK. Physicians working in solo medical practices reported experiencing more individual and environmental barriers to using the HHK. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that future information innovations must demonstrate an advantage over current resources and the research evidence supporting the innovation must be clearly visible. Findings also suggest that the innovation adoption process has a social element, and collegial interactions and discussions may facilitate that process. These results could be valuable for knowledge translation researchers and health promotion developers in future innovation adoption planning.

Too cold may not be so cool: spontaneous hypothermia as a marker of poor outcome after cardiac arrest.

In a recent issue of Critical Care, den Hartog and colleagues show an association between spontaneous hypothermia, defined by an admission body temperature < 35°C, and poor outcome in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH). Given that TH alters neurological prognostication, studies aiming to identify early markers of injury severity and outcome are welcome, since they may contribute overall to optimize the management of comatose CA patients. This study provides an important message to clinicians involved in post-resuscitation care and raises important questions that need to be taken into account in future studies.

More on Testing for Validity Instead of Looking for It

Using Monte Carlo simulations and reanalyzing the data of a validation study of the AEIM emotional intelligence test, we demonstrated that an atheoretical approach and the use of weak statistical procedures can result in biased validity estimates. These procedures included stepwise regression-and the general case of failing to include important theoretical controls-extreme scores analysis, and ignoring heteroscedasticity as well as measurement error. The authors of the AEIM test responded by offering more complete information about their analyses, allowing us to further examine the perils of ignoring theory and correct statistical procedures. In this paper we show with extended analyses that the AEIM test is invalid.

Comparison of radial deformability of stent posts of different aortic bioprostheses.

OBJECTIVES Little is known about the stent deformability required for optimal stented heart valve bioprosthesis design. Therefore, two bioprosthetic valves with known good long-term clinical results were tested. The strain in the radial direction of the stent posts of these valves was compared with contemporary bioprosthetic valves and a native porcine aortic root. METHODS Medtronic Intact and Carpentier-Edwards Standard (CES), and four contemporary bioprostheses, including one self-expanding prosthesis, were tested with three sonomicrometry probes per valve fixed at commissure attachment points. The mean values from 2400 data points from three measurements of the interprobe distances were used to calculate the radius of the circle circumscribed around the three probes. Changes in the radius of the aortic root at pressures 70-90 and 120-140 mmHg (pressure during diastole and systole) and that of the stent posts at 70-90 and 0-10 mmHg (transvalvular pressure gradient during diastole and systole) were compared. RESULTS An increase in radius by 7.3 ± 2.6, 8.7 ± 0.0 and 3.9 ± 0.0% for the porcine aortic root, CES and Intact valves, respectively, was observed during transition from diastolic to systolic pressure and less for contemporary bioprostheses-mean 2.5 ± 0.9%, lowest 1.2 ± 0.0. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate that the radial deformability of bioprosthetic valve stent posts can be as low as 1.2% for xenoaortic and 3.0% for xenopericardial prostheses with no compromise of valve durability. Although these results suggest that valve stent post-deformability might not be of critical importance, a concrete answer to the question of the significance of stent deformability for valve durability can be obtained only by acquiring long-term follow-up results for valve prostheses with rigid stents.

Proto-South-East Asia as a trigger of early angiosperm diversification

Darwin described as an 'abominable mystery' the abrupt origin of angiosperms in the mid-Cretaceous and the high diversification rates in their early history. The father of evolutionary theory could not fathom this rapid diversification and rather invoked that 'there was during long ages a small isolated continent in the S. hemisphere, which served as the birthplace of the higher plants'. In this essay, we comment on the spatial origin of angiosperms, but focus primarily on understanding the abiotic factors that promoted the early diversification of angiosperms by reviewing palaeobotanical, palaeogeographical, phylogenetics and biogeographical evidence. We argue that islands located in the region today occupied by South-East Asia played a major role in angiosperm diversification during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous.

Quality coding by neural populations in the early olfactory pathway: analysis using information theory

In this article, we analyze the ability of the early olfactory system to detect and discriminate different odors by means of information theory measurements applied to olfactory bulb activity images. We have studied the role that the diversity and number of receptor neuron types play in encoding chemical information. Our results show that the olfactory receptors of the biological system are low correlated and present good coverage of the input space. The coding capacity of ensembles of olfactory receptors with the same receptive range is maximized when the receptors cover half of the odor input space - a configuration that corresponds to receptors that are not particularly selective. However, the ensemble's performance slightly increases when mixing uncorrelated receptors of different receptive ranges. Our results confirm that the low correlation between sensors could be more significant than the sensor selectivity for general purpose chemo-sensory systems, whether these are biological or biomimetic.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale: Psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status.

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.