Unbiased estimating equations from working correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures

The method of generalized estimating equation-, (GEEs) has been criticized recently for a failure to protect against misspecification of working correlation models, which in some cases leads to loss of efficiency or infeasibility of solutions. However, the feasibility and efficiency of GEE methods can be enhanced considerably by using flexible families of working correlation models. We propose two ways of constructing unbiased estimating equations from general correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures to supplement and enhance GEE. The supplementary estimating equations are obtained by differentiation of the Cholesky decomposition of the working correlation, or as score equations for decoupled Gaussian pseudolikelihood. The estimating equations are solved with computational effort equivalent to that required for a first-order GEE. Full details and analytic expressions are developed for a generalized Markovian model that was evaluated through simulation. Large-sample ".sandwich" standard errors for working correlation parameter estimates are derived and shown to have good performance. The proposed estimating functions are further illustrated in an analysis of repeated measures of pulmonary function in children.

Numerical modelling of particle deposition in idealized porous channels

This project provides a steppingstone to comprehend the mechanisms that govern particulate fouling in metal foam heat exchangers. The method is based on development of an advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics model in addition to performing analytical validation. This novel method allows an engineer to better optimize heat exchanger designs, thereby mitigating fouling, reducing energy consumption caused by fouling, economize capital expenditure on heat exchanger maintenance, and reduce operation downtime. The robust model leads to the establishment of an alternative heat exchanger configuration that has lower pressure drop and particulate deposition propensity.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part II

A two-state model allowing for size disparity between the solvent and the adsorbate is analysed to derive the adsorption isotherm for electrosorption of organic compounds. Explicity, the organic adsorbate is assumed to occupy "n" lattice sites at the interface as compared to "one" by the solvent. The model parameters are the respective permanent and induced dipole moments apart from the nearest neighbour distance. The coulombic interactions due to permanent and induced dipole moments, discreteness of charge effects, and short-range and specific substrate interactions have all been incorporated. The adsorption isotherm is then derived using mean field approximation (MFA) and is found to be more general than the earlier multi-site versions of Bockris and Swinkels, Mohilner et al., and Bennes, as far as the entropy contributions are concerned. The role of electrostatic forces is explicity reflected in the adsorption isotherm via the Gibbs energy of adsorption term which itself is a quadratic function of the electrode charge-density. The approximation implicit in the adsorption isotherm of Mohilner et al. or Bennes is indicated briefly.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part III

A simple three-state model permitting two different configurational states for the solvent, together with one for the organic adsorbate, is analysed to derive the adsorption isotherm. The implications of this model regarding pseudo-two-state and pseudo-Frumkin adsorption isotherms are indicated. A critique of the earlier theory of Bockris, Devanathan and Müller is presented in brief.

Adsorption isitherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part IV. Charge of maximum adsorption-Statistical mechanical basis

The charge at which adsorption of orgamc compounds attains a maximum ( \sigma MAX M) at an electrochenucal interface is analysed using several multi-state models in a hierarchical manner The analysis is based on statistical mechamcal results for the following models (A) two-state site parity, (B) two-state muhl-slte, and (C) three-state site parity The coulombic interactions due to permanent and reduced dipole effects (using mean field approximation), electrostatic field effects and specific substrate interactions have been taken into account. The simplest model in the hierarchy (two-state site parity) yields the exphcit dependence of ( \sigma MAX M) on the permanent dipole moment, polarizability of the solvent and the adsorbate, lattice spacing, effective coordination number, etc Other models in the baerarchy bring to hght the influence of the solvent structure and the role of substrate interactions, etc As a result of this approach, the "composition" of oM.x m terms of the fundamental molecular constants becomes clear. With a view to use these molecular results to maxamum advantage, the derived results for ( \sigma MAX M) have been converted into those involving experimentally observable parameters lake Co, C 1, E N, etc Wherever possible, some of the earlier phenomenologlcal relations reported for ( \sigma MAX M), notably by Parsons, Damaskm and Frumkln, and Trasattl, are shown to have a certain molecular basis, vlz a simple two-state sate panty model.As a corollary to the hxerarcbacal modelling, \sigma MAX M and the potential corresponding to at (Emax) are shown to be constants independent of 0max or Corg for all models The lmphcatlon of our analysis f o r OmMa x with respect to that predicted by the generalized surface layer equation (which postulates Om~ and Ema x varlaUon with 0) is discussed in detail Finally we discuss an passing o M. and the electrosorptlon valency an this context.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds - A hierarchy in modelling: Part V. Models for the inner layer potential difference in the presence of dipolar adsorption

The relations for the inner layer potential &fference (E) in the presence of adsorbed orgamc molecules are derived for three hterarchlcal models, m terms of molecular constants like permanent &pole moments, polarlzablhtles, etc It is shown how the experimentally observed patterns of the E vs 0 plots (hnear m all ranges of $\sigma^M$, non-linear in one or both regions of o M, etc ) can be understood in a serm-quantltatlve manner from the simplest model in our hierarchy, viz the two-state site panty version Two-state multi-site and three-state (sxte panty) models are also analysed and the slope (3E/80),,M tabulated for these also The results for the Esm-Markov effect are denved for all the models and compared with the earlier result of Parsons. A comparison with the GSL phenomenologlcal equation is presented and its molecular basis, as well as the hmltatlons, is analysed. In partxcular, two-state multa-slte and three-state (site panty) models yield E-o M relations that are more general than the "umfied" GSL equation The posslblhty of vaewlng the compact layer as a "composite medium" with an "effective dlelectnc constant" and obtaimng novel phenomenological descnptions IS also indicated.

Adsorption isotherms-Microscopic modelling: Part II

A lattice formahsm using "spin variables" is employed to analyse multi-state models for the adsorption of neutral dipoles.In particular, a spin-1/2 (two-state) model incorporating permanent and reduced dipole moments of the solvent and the organic adsorbate,substrate interactions, and &screteness of charge effects is analysed The resulting Generalized Islng Hamaltonian is solved under mean field approximation (MFA) in order to derive the adsorption isotherm for organic molecules A few spin-1 (three-state) models are also analysed under MFA to describe the competitive adsorption of multi-state solvent and organic dipoles, and the appropriate equilibrium relations are derived The unification and isomorphism existing at the Hamlltonlan level for several diverse realizations, such as adsorption of ions and solvent/orgamc molecules, is indicated The possibility of analysing phase transitions using this generalized approach is briefly indicated.

A generalized estimating equations approach for analysis of the impact of new technology on a trawl fishery

The article describes a generalized estimating equations approach that was used to investigate the impact of technology on vessel performance in a trawl fishery during 1988-96, while accounting for spatial and temporal correlations in the catch-effort data. Robust estimation of parameters in the presence of several levels of clustering depended more on the choice of cluster definition than on the choice of correlation structure within the cluster. Models with smaller cluster sizes produced stable results, while models with larger cluster sizes, that may have had complex within-cluster correlation structures and that had within-cluster covariates, produced estimates sensitive to the correlation structure. The preferred model arising from this dataset assumed that catches from a vessel were correlated in the same years and the same areas, but independent in different years and areas. The model that assumed catches from a vessel were correlated in all years and areas, equivalent to a random effects term for vessel, produced spurious results. This was an unexpected finding that highlighted the need to adopt a systematic strategy for modelling. The article proposes a modelling strategy of selecting the best cluster definition first, and the working correlation structure (within clusters) second. The article discusses the selection and interpretation of the model in the light of background knowledge of the data and utility of the model, and the potential for this modelling approach to apply in similar statistical situations.

Modelling growth rate of Penaeus monodon Fabricius in intensively managed ponds: effects of temperature, pond age and stocking density

Records of shrimp growth and water quality made during 12 crops from each of 48 ponds, over a period of 6.5 years, were provided by a Queensland, Australia, commercial shrimp farm, These data were analysed with a new growth model derived from the Gompertz model. The results indicate that water temperature, mortality and pond age significantly affect growth rates. After 180 days, shrimp reach 34 g at constant 30 degrees C, but only 15 g after the same amount of time at 20 degrees C. Mortality, through thinning the density of shrimp in the ponds, increased the growth rate, but the effect is small. With continual production, growth rates at first remained steady, then appeared to decrease for the sixth and seventh crop, after which they have increased steadily with each crop. It appears that conservative pond management, together with a gradual improvement in husbandry techniques, particularly feed management, brought about this change. This has encouraging implications for the long-term sustainability of the farming methods used. The growth model can be used to predict productivity, and hence, profitability, of new aquaculture locations or new production strategies.

Structure-reactivity correlation in inclusion complexes: deoxycholic acid di-tert-butyl thioketone

Ultraviolet irradiation of crystalline molecular inclusion complexes of deoxycholic acid with di-tert-butyl thioketone results in no reaction. The structure of the above complex has been determined via X-ray diffraction. The absence of expected photoreactions. namely, photoreduction and photooxidation, is rationalized on the basis of the X-ray structure analysis of the complex.

Agent-based modelling of worker interactions and related impacts on workplace dynamics

This study uses agent based modelling to simulate the worker interactions within a workplace and to investigate how the interactions can have impact on the workplace dynamics. Two new models (Bounded Confidence with Bias model and Relative Agreement with Bias model) are built based on the theoretical foundation of two existing models. A new factor, namely bias, is added into the new models which raises several issues to be studied.

Correlation of plasma IGF-I concentrations and growth rate in aquacultured finfish: a tool for assessing the potential of new diets

A recently developed radioimmunoassay (RIA) for measuring insulin-like growth factor (IGF-I) in a variety of fish species was used to investigate the correlation between growth rate and circulating IGF-I concentrations of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Southern Bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii). Plasma IGF-I concentration significantly increased with increasing ration size in barramundi and IGF-I concentration was positively correlated to growth rates obtained in Atlantic salmon (r2=0.67) and barramundi (r2=0.65) when fed a variety of diet formulations. IGF-I was also positively correlated to protein concentration (r2=0.59). This evidence suggested that measuring IGF-I concentration may provide a useful tool for monitoring fish growth rate and also as a method to rapidly assess different aquaculture diets. However, no such correlation was demonstrated in the tuna study probably due to seasonal cooling of sea surface temperature shortly before blood was sampled. Thus, some recommendations for the design and sampling strategy of nutritional trials where IGF-I concentrations are measured are discussed

The effect of row configuration on yield reliability in grain sorghum: II. Modelling the effects of row configuration

In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.