Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Contribution of cholinergic systems to state-dependent modulation of respiratory control

Respiration is altered during different stages of the sleep-wake cycle. We review the contribution of cholinergic systems to this alteration, with particular reference to the role of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (MAchRs) during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. Available evidence demonstrates that MAchRs have potent excitatory effects on medullary respiratory neurones and respiratory motoneurones, and are likely to contribute to changes in central chemosensitive drive to the respiratory control system. These effects are likely to be most prominent during REM sleep, when cholinergic brainstem neurones show peak activity levels. It is possible that MAchR dysfunction is involved in sleep-disordered breathing, Such as obstructive sleep apnea. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavior of argon gas release from manganese oxide minerals as revealed by Ar-40/Ar-39 laser incremental heating analysis

Manganese oxides in association with paleo-weathering may provide significant insights into the multiple factors affecting the formation and evolution of weathering profiles, such as temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity. Laser probe step-heating analysis of supergene hollandite and cryptomelane samples collected from central Queensland, Australia, yield well-defined plateaus and consistent isochron ages, confirming the feasibility, dating very-fined supergene manganese oxides by Ar-40/(39) Ar technique. Two distinct structural sites hosting Ar isotopes can be identified in light of their degassing behaviors obtained by incremental heating analyses. The first site, releasing its gas fraction at the laser power 0.2-0.4 W, yields primarily Ar-40(atm), Ar-38(atm), and Ar-36(atm), (atmospheric Ar isotopes). The second sites yield predominantly Ar-40* (radiogenic Ar-40), Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) (nucleogenic components), at similar to0.5-1.0 W. There is no significant Ar gas released at the laser power higher than 1.0 W, indicating the breakdown of the tunnel sites hosting the radiogenic and nucleogenic components. The excellent match between the degassing behaviors of Ar-40*, Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) suggests that these isotopes occupy the same crystallographic sites and that Ar-39(K) loss from the tunnel site by recoil during neutron irradiation and/or bake-out procedure preceding isotopic analysis does not occur. Present investigation supports that neither the overwhelming atmospheric Ar-40 nor the very-fined nature of the supergene manganese oxides poses problems in extracting meaningful weathering geo-chronological information by analyzing supergene manganese oxides minerals.

Effect of Metalaxyl Resistance and Cultivar Resistance on Control of Phytophthora nicotianae in Tobacco

Phytophthora nicotianae is a devastating root and stem pathogen of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in South Africa. Growers strive to control the resulting disease, known as black shank, with metalaxyl treatments and resistant cultivars. The aim of this study was to consider whether development of metalaxyl resistance in P. nicotianae has contributed to poor disease control and if recently developed cultivars with high levels of resistance require metalaxyl for effective control. One hundred and thirty-two isolates of P. nicotianae were screened for sensitivity to metalaxyl. P. nicotianae isolates from most tobacco farms were metalaxyl sensitive. Growth of most isolates was inhibited completely at 1.0 μg a.i./ml. However, isolates from the MKTV tobacco producing area showed EC50 values ranging from 1.02 μg a.i./ml to 3.57 μg a.i./ml. Twenty-one tobacco cultivars were planted and treated with and without metalaxyl in two different growing seasons to evaluate their resistance to P. nicotianae and the value of using metalaxyl. Hicks was the most susceptible cultivar. Vuma/3/46, LK30/40/60-1, and LK33/60 exhibited the greatest resistance to P. nicotianae. Use of metalaxyl in combination with moderately resistant cultivars such as NC60 × TL33 and LK10/80/60 effectively reduced black shank in the field. Resistant cultivars were healthy and no significant difference between metalaxyl treated and untreated plants was observed.

Appropriate indicators for injury control?

Indicators are valuable tools used to measure progress towards a desired health outcome. Increased awareness of the public health burden due to injury has lead to a concomitant interest in monitoring the impact of national initiatives that aim to reduce the size of the burden. Several injury indicators have now been proposed. This study examines the ability of each of the suggested indicators to reflect the nature and extent of the burden of non-fatal injury. A criterion validity, population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, a sub-tropical Metropolitan City on the eastern seaboard of Australia, over a 12-month period between 1 January and 31 December 1998. Neither the presence of a long bone fracture nor the need for hospitalisation for 4 or more days were sensitive or specific indicators for 'serious' or major injury as defined by the 'Gold Standard' Injury Severity Score (ISS). Subsequent analysis, using other public health outcome measures demonstrated that the major component of the illness burden of injury was in fact due to 'minor' not serious injury. However, the suggested indicators demonstrated low sensitivity and specificity for these outcomes as well. The results of the study support the need to include at least all hospitalisations in any population-based measure of injury and not attempt to simplify the indicator to a more convenient measure aimed at identifying just those cases of,serious' injury.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Limb constriction as a complication of intra-uterine vesico-amniotic shunt: Fetoscopic release

Complete fetal bladder outlet obstruction was first diagnosed in a fetus at 13.5 weeks. After sequential vesico-centesis had shown good renal function, a vesico-amniotic shunt was inserted at 17 weeks with a Rodeck catheter. The procedure was successful and amniotic fluid volume re-accumulated to normal levels. A detailed scan at 20 weeks showed that the distal free end of the catheter was wound round the left fetal thigh. As the fetus grew, there was progressive constriction of the fetal thigh by the catheter. By 29 weeks, Doppler blood flow changes to the left leg were apparent. Fetoscopic surgery was performed at 30 weeks to release the constriction. The catheter was divided successfully, but the divided end of the shunt subsequently retracted into the fetal abdomen, producing urinary ascites, bilateral hydroureter and hydronephrosis. The baby was delivered at 31.5 weeks in good condition. Endoscopic resection of anterior and posterior urethral valves was performed at 6 months of age. At 2 years, the child has normal renal function, growth parameters and developmental milestones. Mild indentation of the left thigh was still apparent, although there was no functional impairment. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Neural control of the heart: developmental changes in ionic conductances in mammalian intrinsic cardiac neurons

The expression and properties of ionic channels were investigated in dissociated neurons from neonatal and adult rat intracardiac ganglia. Changes in the hyperpolarization-activated and ATP-sensitive K+ conductances during postnatal development and their role in neuronal excitability were examined. The hyperpolarization-activated nonselective cation current, I-h, was observed in all neurons studied and displayed slow time-dependent rectification. An inwardly rectifying K+ current, I-K(I), was present in a population of neurons from adult but not neonatal rats and was sensitive to block by extracellular Ba2+. Using the perforated-patch recording configuration, an ATP-sensitive K+ (K-ATP) conductance was identified in greater than or equal to 50% of intracardiac neurons from adult rats. Levcromakalim evoked membrane hyperpolarization, which was inhibited by the sulphonylurea drugs. glibenclamide and tolbutamide. Exposure to hypoxic conditions also activated a membrane current similar to that induced by levcromakalim and was inhibited by glibenclamide. Changes in the complement of ion channels during postnatal development may underlie observed differences in the function of intracardiac ganglion neurons during maturation. Furthermore, activation of hyperpolarization-activated and KATP channels in mammalian intracardiac neurons may play a role in neural regulation of the mature heart and cardiac function during ischaemia-reperfusion. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.