Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Time-domain modeling of high-frequency electromagnetic wave propagation, overhead wires, and earth

Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished. Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished.

Comparison between confocal scanning laser tomography, scanning laser polarimetry and optical coherence tomography on the ability to detect localised retinal nerve fibre layer defects in glaucoma patients

BACKGROUND/AIM: To compare the ability of confocal scanning laser tomography (CSLT), scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) in recognising localised retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) defects. METHODS: 51 eyes from 43 patients with glaucoma were identified by two observers as having RNFL defects visible on optic disc photographs. 51 eyes of 32 normal subjects were used as controls. Three masked observers evaluated CSLT, SLP and OCT images to determine subjectively the presence of localised RNFL defects. RESULTS: Interobserver agreement was highest with OCT, followed by SLP and CSLT (mean kappa: 0.83, 0.69 and 0.64, respectively). RNFL defects were identified in 58.8% of CSLT, 66.7% of SLP and 54.9% of OCT (p = 0.02 between SLP and OCT) by at least two observers. In the controls, 94.1% of CSLT, 84.3% of SLP and 94.1% of OCT scans, respectively, were rated as normal (p = 0.02 between CSLT and SLP, and SLP and OCT). CONCLUSION: Approximately 20-40% of localised RNFL defects identified by colour optic disc photographs are not detected by CSLT, SPL or OCT. SLP showed a higher number of false-positive results than the other techniques, but also had a higher proportion of correctly identified RNFL defects in the glaucoma population.

Opinions of dating agents about strabismic subjects' ability to find a partner

AIMS: To determine the influence of strabismus on the ability to find a partner. METHODS: We interviewed Swiss dating agents retrieved from two Swiss online telephone directories using a validated questionnaire to determine whether strabismus has any impact on the ability to find a partner. During the interviews, subjects with internet access could view downloadable, digitally altered photographs of a strabismic man and women, as well as images of other computer-generated facial anomalies. RESULTS: Of the 40 dating agents, 92.5% judged that strabismic subjects have more difficulty finding a partner (p<0.001). Such difficulty was not associated with either gender or age but was perceived as being greater in exotropic than in esotropic persons (p<0.001). Among the seven facial disfigurements, strabismus was believed to have the third largest negative impact on finding a partner, after strong acne and a visible missing tooth. Dating agents also believed that potential partners perceive persons with strabismus as significantly less attractive (p<0.001), erotic (p<0.001), likeable (p<0.001), interesting (p<0.001), successful (p<0.001), intelligent (p = 0.001) and sporty (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Visible strabismus negatively influences the ability to find a partner. Because strabismus surgery in adults restores a normal functioning condition and reduces not only physical but also psychosocial difficulties, it cannot be considered a cosmetic procedure.

Opinion of headhunters about the ability of strabismic subjects to obtain employment

BACKGROUND: Through the opinion of Swiss headhunters, we wanted to determine the influence of strabismus on the ability to obtain employment. METHODS: Out of 31 randomly selected Swiss headhunters, 20 could be interviewed using a validated questionnaire. RESULTS: Forty-seven percent of the headhunters judged that strabismic subjects have more difficulties in obtaining a job. Gender has no influence on discrimination (p > 0.1). Asked about six facial disfigurements, strabismus was found to have the second largest negative impact on employment directly after acne. Strabismus was estimated to decrease the attractiveness of job applicants (p < 0.0001) and to have a negative impact on the overall judgment of a potential employer (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Visible strabismus influences negatively the ability to obtain a job. Because of its impact on the employability of a person, we believe that strabismus surgery in adults cannot be considered to be only a beautifying procedure.

Long-Range Pollution Transport: Trans-Atlantic Mechanisms and Lagrangian Modeling Methods

Over the past several decades, it has become apparent that anthropogenic activities have resulted in the large-scale enhancement of the levels of many trace gases throughout the troposphere. More recently, attention has been given to the transport pathway taken by these emissions as they are dispersed throughout the atmosphere. The transport pathway determines the physical characteristics of emissions plumes and therefore plays an important role in the chemical transformations that can occur downwind of source regions. For example, the production of ozone (O3) is strongly dependent upon the transport its precursors undergo. O3 can initially be formed within air masses while still over polluted source regions. These polluted air masses can experience continued O3 production or O3 destruction downwind, depending on the air mass's chemical and transport characteristics. At present, however, there are a number of uncertainties in the relationships between transport and O3 production in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere. The first phase of the study presented here used measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory and model simulations to determine transport pathways for US emissions to the observatory. The Pico Mountain observatory was established in the summer of 2001 in order to address the need to understand the relationships between transport and O3 production. Measurements from the observatory were analyzed in conjunction with model simulations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), FLEX-PART, in order to determine the transport pathway for events observed at the Pico Mountain observatory during July 2003. A total of 16 events were observed, 4 of which were analyzed in detail. The transport time for these 16 events varied from 4.5 to 7 days, while the transport altitudes over the ocean ranged from 2-8 km, but were typically less than 3 km. In three of the case studies, eastward advection and transport in a weak warm conveyor belt (WCB) airflow was responsible for the export of North American emissions into the FT, while transport in the FT was governed by easterly winds driven by the Azores/Bermuda High (ABH) and transient northerly lows. In the fourth case study, North American emissions were lofted to 6-8 km in a WCB before being entrained in the same cyclone's dry airstream and transported down to the observatory. The results of this study show that the lower marine FT may provide an important transport environment where O3 production may continue, in contrast to transport in the marine boundary layer, where O3 destruction is believed to dominate. The second phase of the study presented here focused on improving the analysis methods that are available with LPDMs. While LPDMs are popular and useful for the analysis of atmospheric trace gas measurements, identifying the transport pathway of emissions from their source to a receptor (the Pico Mountain observatory in our case) using the standard gridded model output, particularly during complex meteorological scenarios can be difficult can be difficult or impossible. The transport study in phase 1 was limited to only 1 month out of more than 3 years of available data and included only 4 case studies out of the 16 events specifically due to this confounding factor. The second phase of this study addressed this difficulty by presenting a method to clearly and easily identify the pathway taken by only those emissions that arrive at a receptor at a particular time, by combining the standard gridded output from forward (i.e., concentrations) and backward (i.e., residence time) LPDM simulations, greatly simplifying similar analyses. The ability of the method to successfully determine the source-to-receptor pathway, restoring this Lagrangian information that is lost when the data are gridded, is proven by comparing the pathway determined from this method with the particle trajectories from both the forward and backward models. A sample analysis is also presented, demonstrating that this method is more accurate and easier to use than existing methods using standard LPDM products. Finally, we discuss potential future work that would be possible by combining the backward LPDM simulation with gridded data from other sources (e.g., chemical transport models) to obtain a Lagrangian sampling of the air that will eventually arrive at a receptor.

Ability of dGEMRIC and T2 mapping to evaluate cartilage repair after microfracture: a goat study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the ability of delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of cartilage (dGEMRIC) and T2 mapping to evaluate the quality of repair tissue after microfracture. DESIGN: Twelve knees from 12 goats were studied. An osteochondral defect (diameter, 6mm; depth, 3mm) with microfracture was created in the weight-bearing aspect of both the medial and lateral femoral condyles. Goats were euthanized at 24 weeks (n=6) and 48 weeks (n=6) postsurgery. Pre-contrast R1 (R1pre) and post-contrast R1 (R1post) measurements for dGEMRIC and a pre-contrast T2 measurement for T2 mapping were performed with a 3T MR imaging system. MR imaging findings were compared with histological and biochemical assessments. RESULTS: In native cartilage, significant correlations were observed between the R1post and the glycosaminoglycan (GAG) concentration, as well as DeltaR1 (difference between the R1pre and R1post) and the GAG concentration (P<0.05). In repair tissue, a significant correlation was observed between DeltaR1 and the GAG concentration (P<0.05), but not between the R1post and the GAG concentration. In both repair tissue and native cartilage, no correlation was observed between T2 and the water concentration or between T2 and the hydroxyproline (HP) concentration. A zonal variation of T2 and a clear dependence of T2 on the angles relative to B0 were observed in native cartilage, but not in repair tissue. CONCLUSION: dGEMRIC with DeltaR1 measurement might be useful for the evaluation of the GAG concentration in repair tissue after microfracture. T2 mapping might be useful for the differentiation of repair tissue after microfracture from native cartilage; however, its potential to assess the specific biochemical markers in native cartilage as well as repair tissue may be limited.

Multimodal approach in the use of clinical scoring, morphological MRI and biochemical T2-mapping and diffusion-weighted imaging in their ability to assess differences between cartilage repair tissue after microfracture therapy and matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present pilot study is to show initial results of a multimodal approach using clinical scoring, morphological magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and biochemical T2-relaxation and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) in their ability to assess differences between cartilage repair tissue after microfracture therapy (MFX) and matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation (MACT). METHOD: Twenty patients were cross-sectionally evaluated at different post-operative intervals from 12 to 63 months after MFX and 12-59 months after MACT. The two groups were matched by age (MFX: 36.0+/-10.4 years; MACT: 35.1+/-7.7 years) and post-operative interval (MFX: 32.6+/-16.7 months; MACT: 31.7+/-18.3 months). After clinical evaluation using the Lysholm score, 3T-MRI was performed obtaining the MR observation of cartilage repair tissue (MOCART) score as well as T2-mapping and DWI for multi-parametric MRI. Quantitative T2-relaxation was achieved using a multi-echo spin-echo sequence; semi-quantitative diffusion-quotient (signal intensity without diffusion-weighting divided by signal intensity with diffusion weighting) was prepared by a partially balanced, steady-state gradient-echo pulse sequence. RESULTS: No differences in Lysholm (P=0.420) or MOCART (P=0.209) score were observed between MFX and MACT. T2-mapping showed lower T2 values after MFX compared to MACT (P=0.039). DWI distinguished between healthy cartilage and cartilage repair tissue in both procedures (MFX: P=0.001; MACT: P=0.007). Correlations were found between the Lysholm and the MOCART score (Pearson: 0.484; P=0.031), between the Lysholm score and DWI (Pearson:-0.557; P=0.011) and a trend between the Lysholm score and T2 (Person: 0.304; P=0.193). CONCLUSION: Using T2-mapping and DWI, additional information could be gained compared to clinical scoring or morphological MRI. In combination clinical, MR-morphological and MR-biochemical parameters can be seen as a promising multimodal tool in the follow-up of cartilage repair.

Novel functional profiling approach combining reverse phase protein microarrays and human 3-D ex vivo tissue cultures: expression of apoptosis-related proteins in human colon cancer

Cancer is caused by a complex pattern of molecular perturbations. To understand the biology of cancer, it is thus important to look at the activation state of key proteins and signaling networks. The limited amount of available sample material from patients and the complexity of protein expression patterns make the use of traditional protein analysis methods particularly difficult. In addition, the only approach that is currently available for performing functional studies is the use of serial biopsies, which is limited by ethical constraints and patient acceptance. The goal of this work was to establish a 3-D ex vivo culture technique in combination with reverse-phase protein microarrays (RPPM) as a novel experimental tool for use in cancer research. The RPPM platform allows the parallel profiling of large numbers of protein analytes to determine their relative abundance and activation level. Cancer tissue and the respective corresponding normal tissue controls from patients with colorectal cancer were cultured ex vivo. At various time points, the cultured samples were processed into lysates and analyzed on RPPM to assess the expression of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and 24 proteins involved in the regulation of apoptosis. The methodology displayed good robustness and low system noise. As a proof of concept, CEA expression was significantly higher in tumor compared with normal tissue (p<0.0001). The caspase 9 expression signal was lower in tumor tissue than in normal tissue (p<0.001). Cleaved Caspase 8 (p=0.014), Bad (p=0.007), Bim (p=0.007), p73 (p=0.005), PARP (p<0.001), and cleaved PARP (p=0.007) were differentially expressed in normal liver and normal colon tissue. We demonstrate here the feasibility of using RPPM technology with 3-D ex vivo cultured samples. This approach is useful for investigating complex patterns of protein expression and modification over time. It should allow functional proteomics in patient samples with various applications such as pharmacodynamic analyses in drug development.

Validation of the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) score in liver surgery

BACKGROUND: The estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) has been used to produce a numerical estimate of expected mortality and morbidity after elective gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was to validate E-PASS in a selected cohort of patients requiring liver resections (LR). METHODS: In this retrospective study, E-PASS predictor equations for morbidity and mortality were applied to the prospective data from 243 patients requiring LR. The observed rates were compared with predicted rates using Fisher's exact test. The discriminative capability of E-PASS was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The observed and predicted overall mortality rates were both 3.3% and the morbidity rates were 31.3 and 26.9%, respectively. There was a significant difference in the comprehensive risk scores for deceased and surviving patients (p = 0.043). However, the scores for patients with or without complications were not significantly different (p = 0.120). Subsequent ROC curve analysis revealed a poor predictive accuracy for morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The E-PASS score seems to effectively predict mortality in this specific group of patients but is a poor predictor of complications. A new modified logistic regression might be required for LR in order to better predict the postoperative outcome.