Note: Active optical detection of cloud from a balloon platform

A disposable backscatter instrument is described for optical detection of cloud in the atmosphere from a balloon-carried platform. It uses an ultra-bright light emitting diode (LED) illumination source with a photodiode detector. Scattering of the LED light by cloud droplets generates a small optical signal which is separated from background light fluctuations using a lock-in technique. The signal to noise obtained permits cloud detection using the scattered LED light, even in daytime. The response is interpreted in terms of the equivalent visual range within the cloud. The device is lightweight (150 g) and low power (∼30 mA), for use alongside a conventional meteorological radiosonde.

It is always on your mind: experiences and perceptions of falling of older people and their carers and the potential of a mobile falls detection device

Background. Falls and fear of falling present a major risk to older people as both can affect their quality of life and independence. Mobile assistive technologies (AT) fall detection devices may maximise the potential for older people to live independently for as long as possible within their own homes by facilitating early detection of falls. Aims. To explore the experiences and perceptions of older people and their carers as to the potential of a mobile falls detection AT device. Methods. Nine focus groups with 47 participants including both older people with a range of health conditions and their carers. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analysed. Results. Four key themes were identified relating to participants’ experiences and perceptions of falling and the potential impact of a mobile falls detector: cause of falling, falling as everyday vulnerability, the environmental context of falling, and regaining confidence and independence by having a mobile falls detector. Conclusion. The perceived benefits of a mobile falls detector may differ between older people and their carers. The experience of falling has to be taken into account when designing mobile assistive technology devices as these may influence perceptions of such devices and how older people utilise them.

Climate change

This chapter presents a broad overview of understanding of climate change over the past century or so, together with a discussion of some of the uncertainties. It provides a background to the developments in understanding of climate change, presents evidence that climate has changed and assesses the mechanisms that cause climate change, with a particular emphasis on those due to human activity. The concepts underlying climate modelling are introduced and results are then presented that strongly support the view that human activity has played a major role in the observed climate change over the past 50 years. Possible changes in climate over the coming century are then discussed.

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on river flows in England using the UKCP09 climate change projections

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in representative English catchments, using the UKCP09 climate projections. These comprise a set of 10,000 coherent climate scenarios, used here (i) to evaluate the distribution of potential changes in hydrological behaviour and (ii) to construct relationships between indicators of climate change and hydrological change. The study uses six catchments, and focuses on change in average flow, high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). There is a large range in hydrological change in each catchment between the plausible UKCP09 climate projections, with differences between catchments largely due to differences in catchment geology and baseline water balance. The range in change between the UKCP09 projections is in most catchments smaller than the range between changes with scenarios based on the CMIP3 ensemble of climate models, and earlier UK scenarios produce changes that tend towards the lower (drier) end of the UKCP09 range. The difference between emissions scenarios is small compared to the range across the 10,000 scenarios. Changes in high flows are largely driven by changes in winter precipitation, whilst changes in low flows are determined by changes in summer precipitation and temperature.

G protein-coupled receptors: what a difference a 'partner' makes

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are important cell signaling mediators, involved in essential physiological processes. GPCRs respond to a wide variety of ligands from light to large macromolecules, including hormones and small peptides. Unfortunately, mutations and dysregulation of GPCRs that induce a loss of function or alter expression can lead to disorders that are sometimes lethal. Therefore, the expression, trafficking, signaling and desensitization of GPCRs must be tightly regulated by different cellular systems to prevent disease. Although there is substantial knowledge regarding the mechanisms that regulate the desensitization and down-regulation of GPCRs, less is known about the mechanisms that regulate the trafficking and cell-surface expression of newly synthesized GPCRs. More recently, there is accumulating evidence that suggests certain GPCRs are able to interact with specific proteins that can completely change their fate and function. These interactions add on another level of regulation and flexibility between different tissue/cell-types. Here, we review some of the main interacting proteins of GPCRs. A greater understanding of the mechanisms regulating their interactions may lead to the discovery of new drug targets for therapy.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Utilizing insect behavior in chemical detection by a behavioral biosensor

Traditionally, biosensors have been defined as consisting of two parts; a biological part, which is used to detect chemical or physical changes in the environment, and a corresponding electronic component, which tranduces the signal into an electronically readable format. Biosensors are used for detection of volatile compounds often at a level of sensitivity unattainable by traditional analytical techniques. Classical biosensors and traditional analytical techniques do not allow an ecological context to be imparted to the volatile compound/s under investigation. Therefore, we propose the use of behavioral biosensors, in which a whole organism is utilized for the analysis of chemical stimuli. In this case, the organism detects a chemical or physical change and demonstrates this detection through modifications of its behavior; it is the organism's behavior itself that defines the biosensor. In this review, we evaluate the use and future prospects of behavioral biosensors, with a particular focus on parasitic wasps.

Climate change: against despair

In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes with consideration of the instrumental value of hope in effective agency to tackle climate change. Overall, the paper’s assessment of personal despair about climate change as philosophically unjustified provides a fresh perspective on aspects of the debate about how to frame climate change in public debate.

Using E-Z Reader to examine the concurrent development of eye-movement control and reading skill

Compared to skilled adult readers, children typically make more fixations that are longer in duration, shorter saccades, and more regressions, thus reading more slowly (Blythe & Joseph, 2011). Recent attempts to understand the reasons for these differences have discovered some similarities (e.g., children and adults target their saccades similarly; Joseph, Liversedge, Blythe, White, & Rayner, 2009) and some differences (e.g., children’s fixation durations are more affected by lexical variables; Blythe, Liversedge, Joseph, White, & Rayner, 2009) that have yet to be explained. In this article, the E-Z Reader model of eye-movement control in reading (Reichle, 2011; Reichle, Pollatsek, Fisher, & Rayner, 1998) is used to simulate various eye-movement phenomena in adults versus children in order to evaluate hypotheses about the concurrent development of reading skill and eye-movement behavior. These simulations suggest that the primary difference between children and adults is their rate of lexical processing, and that different rates of (post-lexical) language processing may also contribute to some phenomena (e.g., children’s slower detection of semantic anomalies; Joseph et al., 2008). The theoretical implications of this hypothesis are discussed, including possible alternative accounts of these developmental changes, how reading skill and eye movements change across the entire lifespan (e.g., college-aged vs. elderly readers), and individual differences in reading ability.

Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Linguistic capital and the linguistic field for teachers unaccustomed to linguistic difference

Teachers in classrooms throughout England are facing a shifting demographic in their pupil intake. Where once the teaching of children whose first language was not English was considered an inner-city teachers’ role, more recent migration patterns have challenged this preconception (Andrews, 2009). In England in particular, this change sits against an historical backdrop of centralised control of the curriculum for English. This article explores how primary school teachers responded to the arrival of Polish children in county settings following EU accession in 2004. Interviews with a small sample of teachers in schools that had previously been mainly monolingual were coded using Bourdieu’s Logic of Practice. Analysis revealed a complex mix of experienced that appeared to rest on assumed pedagogical norms and professionally assimilated external pressures. Discussion centres on the author’s interpretation of teachers’ ownership of linguistic capital and its relationship to linguistic field.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.