Use of a modified delphi process for establishing occupational exposure limits in support of health surveillance for space travelers

On-orbit exposures can come from numerous factors related to the space environment as evidenced by almost 50 years of environmental samples collected for water analysis, air analysis, radiation analysis, and physiologic parameters. For astronauts and spaceflight participants the occupational exposures can be very different from those experienced by workers performing similar tasks in workplaces on Earth, because the duration of the exposure could be continuous for very long orbital, and eventually interplanetary, missions. The establishment of long-term exposure standards is vital to controlling the quality of the spacecraft environment over long periods. NASA often needs to update and revise its prior exposure standards (Spacecrafts Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs)). Traditional standards-setting processes are often lengthy, so a more rapid method to review and establish standards would be a substantial advancement in this area. This project investigates use of the Delphi method for this purpose. ^ In order to achieve the objectives of this study a modified Delphi methodology was tested in three trials executed by doctoral students and a panel of experts in disciplines related to occupational safety and health. During each test/trial modifications were made to the methodology. Prior to submission of the Delphi Questionnaire to the panel of experts a pilot study/trial was conducted using five doctoral students with the goals of testing and adjusting the Delphi questionnaire to improve comprehension, work out any procedural issues and evaluate the effectiveness of the questionnaire in drawing the desired responses. The remainder of the study consisted of two trials of the Modified Delphi process using 6 chemicals that currently have the potential of causing occupational exposures to NASA astronauts or spaceflight participants. To assist in setting Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL), the expert panel was established consisting of experts from academia, government and industry. Evidence was collected and used to create close-ended questionnaires which were submitted to the Delphi panel of experts for the establishment of OEL values for three chemicals from the list of six originally selected (trial 1). Once the first Delphi trial was completed, adjustments were made to the Delphi questionnaires and the process above was repeated with the remaining 3 chemicals (trial 2). ^ Results indicate that experience in occupational safety and health and with OEL methodologies can have a positive effect in minimizing the time experts take in completing this process. Based on the results of the questionnaires and comparison of the results with the SMAC already established by NASA, we conclude that use of the Delphi methodology is appropriate for use in the decision-making process for the selection of OELs.^

An analysis of the revenue policy -making process of the Texas Legislature

The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a conceptual framework which can be used to account for policy decisions made by the House Ways and Means Committee (HW&MC) of the Texas House of Representatives. This analysis will examine the actions of the committee over a ten-year period with the goal of explaining and predicting the success of failure of certain efforts to raise revenue.^ The basis framework for modelling the revenue decision-making process includes three major components--the decision alternatives, the external factors and two competing contingency theories. The decision alternatives encompass the particular options available to increase tax revenue. The options were classified as non-innovative or innovative. The non-innovative options included the sales, franchise, property and severance taxes. The innovative options were principally the personal and corporate income taxes.^ The external factors included political and economic constraints that affected the actions of the HW&MC. Several key political constraints on committee decision-making were addressed--including public attitudes, interest groups, political party strength and tradition and precedents. The economic constraints that affected revenue decisions included court mandates, federal mandates and the fiscal condition of the nation and the state.^ The third component of the revenue decision-making framework included two alternative contingency theories. The first alternative theory postulated that the committee structure, including the individual member roles and the overall committee style, resulted in distinctive revenue decisions. This theory will be favored if evidence points to the committee acting autonomously with less concern for the policies of the Speaker of the House. The Speaker assignment theory, postulated that the assignment of committee members shaped or changed the course of committee decision-making. This theory will be favored if there was evidence that the committee was strictly a vehicle for the Speaker to institute his preferred tax policies.^ The ultimate goal of this analysis is to develop an explanation for legislative decision-making about tax policy. This explanation will be based on the linkages across various tax options, political and economic constraints, member roles and committee style and the patterns of committee assignment. ^

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Bringing Non-governmental Actors into the Policymaking Process: The Case of Local Development Policy in Thailand

During the past two decades in Thailand, non-governmental actors, such as NGOs, intellectuals, and people's organizations, have found widening opportunities to participate in policy formation and in the implementation of local development. The government has facilitated the formation of civil society forums, in the expectation of influencing local-level governance. The last two national five-year development plans were formulated after taking into account the voices of people in the provinces. Even though they may seem petty, some state funds are now transmitted through non-governmental institutions for policy implementation at the grassroots level. These changes have their origin in a reformation of rural development administration in early 1980s. This reformation in due course led to policies that have allowed the participation of non-governmental actors. Meanwhile, rural people have proved their ability to engage in participatory development by forming various local organizations, while NGOs have grown to be proficient facilitators of local development. This paper describes the process whereby three leading actors, namely the government, local people, and the NGOs, have interacted to bring about a more participatory system of local development administration.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management. A case study in the middle Guadiana basin, Spain.

The objective of this research was the implementation of a participatory process for the development of a tool to support decision making in water management. The process carried out aims at attaining an improved understanding of the water system and an encouragement of the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders to build a shared vision of the system. In addition, the process intends to identify impacts of possible solutions to given problems, which will help to take decisions.

Application of Decision Theory methods for a Community of Madrid Soil classification case

A land classification method was designed for the Community of Madrid (CM), which has lands suitable for either agriculture use or natural spaces. The process started from an extensive previous CM study that contains sets of land attributes with data for 122 types and a minimum-requirements method providing a land quality classification (SQ) for each land. Borrowing some tools from Operations Research (OR) and from Decision Science, that SQ has been complemented by an additive valuation method that involves a more restricted set of 13 representative attributes analysed using Attribute Valuation Functions to obtain a quality index, QI, and by an original composite method that uses a fuzzy set procedure to obtain a combined quality index, CQI, that contains relevant information from both the SQ and the QI methods.

A Recommendation Framework Based on the Analytic Network Process and its Application in the Semantic Technology Domain

When users face a certain problem needing a product, service, or action to solve it, selecting the best alternative among them can be a dicult task due to the uncertainty of their quality. This is especially the case in the domains where users do not have an expertise, like for example in Software Engineering. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are methods that help making better decisions when facing the complex problem of selecting the best solution among a group of alternatives that can be compared according to different conflicting criteria. In MCDM problems, alternatives represent concrete products, services or actions that will help in achieving a goal, while criteria represent the characteristics of these alternatives that are important for making a decision.

Systematic Approach for the selection of monitoring technologies in CO2 geological storage projects. Application of multicriteria decision making

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been proposed as a viable means for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Once injection begins, a program for measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) of CO2 distribution is required in order to: a) research key features, effects and processes needed for risk assessment; b) manage the injection process; c) delineate and identify leakage risk and surface escape; d) provide early warnings of failure near the reservoir; and f) verify storage for accounting and crediting. The selection of the methodology of monitoring (characterization of site and control and verification in the post-injection phase) is influenced by economic and technological variables. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) refers to a methodology developed for making decisions in the presence of multiple criteria. MCDM as a discipline has only a relatively short history of 40 years, and it has been closely related to advancements on computer technology. Evaluation methods and multicriteria decisions include the selection of a set of feasible alternatives, the simultaneous optimization of several objective functions, and a decision-making process and evaluation procedures that must be rational and consistent. The application of a mathematical model of decision-making will help to find the best solution, establishing the mechanisms to facilitate the management of information generated by number of disciplines of knowledge. Those problems in which decision alternatives are finite are called Discrete Multicriteria Decision problems. Such problems are most common in reality and this case scenario will be applied in solving the problem of site selection for storing CO2. Discrete MCDM is used to assess and decide on issues that by nature or design support a finite number of alternative solutions. Recently, Multicriteria Decision Analysis has been applied to hierarchy policy incentives for CCS, to assess the role of CCS, and to select potential areas which could be suitable to store. For those reasons, MCDM have been considered in the monitoring phase of CO2 storage, in order to select suitable technologies which could be techno-economical viable. In this paper, we identify techniques of gas measurements in subsurface which are currently applying in the phase of characterization (pre-injection); MCDM will help decision-makers to hierarchy the most suitable technique which fit the purpose to monitor the specific physic-chemical parameter.

A multi-criteria optimization and decision-making approach for improvement of food engineering processes.

The objective of this study was to propose a multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique to solve food engineering problems. This technique was demostrated using experimental data obtained on osmotic dehydratation of carrot cubes in a sodium chloride solution. The Aggregating Functions Approach, the Adaptive Random Search Algorithm, and the Penalty Functions Approach were used in this study to compute the initial set of non-dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions. Multiple non-linear regression analysis was performed on a set of experimental data in order to obtain particular multi-objective functions (responses), namely water loss, solute gain, rehydration ratio, three different colour criteria of rehydrated product, and sensory evaluation (organoleptic quality). Two multi-criteria decision-making approaches, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Tabular Method (TM), were used simultaneously to choose the best alternative among the set of non-dominated solutions. The multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique proposed in this study can facilitate the assessment of criteria weights, giving rise to a fairer, more consistent, and adequate final compromised solution or food process. This technique can be useful to food scientists in research and education, as well as to engineers involved in the improvement of a variety of food engineering processes.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Business Process Optimization in Madrid City Council.

While designing systems and products requires a deep understanding of influences that achieve desirable performance, the need for an efficient and systematic decision-making approach drives the need for optimization strategies. This paper provides the motivation for this topic as well as a description of applications in Computing Center of Madrid city Council. Optimization applications can be found in almost all areas of engineering. Typical problems in process, working with a database, arise in query design, entity model design and concurrent processes. This paper proposes a solution to optimize a night process dealing with millions of records with an overall performance of about eight times in computation time.

Prototype of EN 301 549 Decision tree

The new European Standard EN 301 549 “Accessibility requirements suitable for public procurement of ICT products and services in Europe” is the response by CEN, CENELEC and ETSI to the European Commission’s Mandate 376. Today, ICT products and services are converging, and the boundaries between product categories are being constantly blurred. For that reason EN 301 549 has been drafted using a feature-based approach, instead of being based on product categories. The result is a standard that can be applied to any ICT product and service, by identifying applicable requirements depending on the features of the ICT. This demonstration presents ongoing work at the research group CETTICO of the Technical University of Madrid. CETTICO is developing a workgroup-based support tool where teams of people can annotate the result of performing a conformity assessment of a given ICT product or service according to the requirements of the EN. One of the functions of the tool is creating evaluation projects. During that task the user defines the features of the corresponding ICT product or service by answering questions presented by the tool. As a result of this process, the tool will create a list of applicable requirements and recommendations.

Patient-oriented computerized clinical guidelines for mobile decision support in gestational diabetes

The risks associated with gestational diabetes (GD) can be reduced with an active treatment able to improve glycemic control. Advances in mobile health can provide new patient-centric models for GD to create personalized health care services, increase patient independence and improve patients’ self-management capabilities, and potentially improve their treatment compliance. In these models, decision-support functions play an essential role. The telemedicine system MobiGuide provides personalized medical decision support for GD patients that is based on computerized clinical guidelines and adapted to a mobile environment. The patient’s access to the system is supported by a smartphone-based application that enhances the efficiency and ease of use of the system. We formalized the GD guideline into a computer-interpretable guideline (CIG). We identified several workflows that provide decision-support functionalities to patients and 4 types of personalized advice to be delivered through a mobile application at home, which is a preliminary step to providing decision-support tools in a telemedicine system: (1) therapy, to help patients to comply with medical prescriptions; (2) monitoring, to help patients to comply with monitoring instructions; (3) clinical assessment, to inform patients about their health conditions; and (4) upcoming events, to deal with patients’ personal context or special events. The whole process to specify patient-oriented decision support functionalities ensures that it is based on the knowledge contained in the GD clinical guideline and thus follows evidence-based recommendations but at the same time is patient-oriented, which could enhance clinical outcomes and patients’ acceptance of the whole system.

Self perception of decision making competence in spanish football players

Background: It is known that competence to make decisions is a fundamental aspect of sport competition. Objective: This study has analyzed the decision profile of a sample of Spanish football players of different levels of expertise. Methods: 690 Spanish football players of national and international level completed the decision making questionnaire, which cover three dimensions ? perceived decision competence, decision anxiety and commitment with decision learning. MANCOVA and ANOVA analysis were carried out to analyse the differences in each dimension based on the level of expertise. Results: Results showed that perception of decision making competence increased and the anxiety decreased with the level of expertise. Conclusions: This study confirmed the usefulness of this questionnaire in the process of training for coaches and sport psychologists.