Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Predictions of large events on a spring-block model

We study the predictability of a theoretical model for earthquakes, using a pattern recognition algorithm similar to the CN and M8 algorithms known in seismology. The model, which is a stochastic spring-block model with both global correlation and local interaction, becomes more predictable as the strength of the global correlation or the local interaction is increased.

Selective block in erythropoietin-induced differentiation of growth factor-independent retrovirally-infected TF-1 cells

The erythroleukaemic cell line TF-1, infected with either the pBabe neo retrovirus or the retrovirus bearing the human erythropoietin (hEpo) gene, developed three growth factor-independent clones. Erythropoietin (Epo), interleukin-3 (IL-3) and granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) accelerated the proliferation of these clones. Autonomous growth of the clones was independent of Epo because it was not altered by Epo anti-sense oligonucleotides, nor was Epo detectable in culture supernatants. Cells from the mutant clones could not be induced by Epo to express glycophorin A and haemoglobin synthesis was markedly reduced. Haemin reversed the block in Epo-induced haemoglobin synthesis. Acquisition of growth factor-independence appears to be linked with the selective loss of differentiation capacity. These cells may provide a useful model for the study of the mechanisms involved in leukaemic transformation.

The effect of construction pattern and unit interlock on the structural behaviour of block pavements

The maintenance or even replacement of cracked pavements requires considerable financial resources and puts a large burden on the budgets of local councils. In addition to these costs, local councils also face liability claims arising from uneven or cracked pedestrian pavements. These currently cost the Manchester City Council and Preston City Council around £6 million a year each. Design procedures are empirical. A better understanding of the interaction between paving blocks, bedding sand and subbase was necessary in order to determine the mode of failure of pavements under load. Increasing applied stress was found to mobilise ‘‘rotational interlock’’, providing increased pavement stiffness and thus increased load dissipation resulting in lower transmitted stress on the subgrade. The indications from the literature
review were that pavements are designed to fail by excessive deformation and that paving blocks remained uncracked at failure. This was confirmed with experimental data which was obtained from tests on segments of pavements that were laid/constructed in a purpose built test frame in the laboratory.

Sudden death and sudden birth of entanglement in common structured reservoirs

We study the exact entanglement dynamics of two qubits in a common structured reservoir. We demonstrate that for certain classes of entangled states, entanglement sudden death occurs, while for certain initially factorized states, entanglement sudden birth takes place. The backaction of the non-Markovian reservoir is responsible for revivals of entanglement after sudden death has occurred, and also for periods of disentanglement following entanglement sudden birth.