Evaluation of various pre-treatments for the dehydration of banana and selection of suitable drying models

The thin-layer drying behaviour of bananas in a beat pump dehumidifier dryer was examined. Four pre-treatments (blanching, chilling, freezing and combined blanching and freezing) were applied to the bananas, which were dried at 50 degreesC with an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1) and with the relative humidity of the inlet air of 10-35%. Three drying models, the simple model, the two-term exponential model and the Page model were examined. All models were evaluated using three statistical measures, correlation coefficient, root means square error, and mean absolute percent error. Moisture diffusivity was calculated based on the diffusion equation for an infinite cylindrical shape using the slope method. The rate of drying was higher for the pre-treatments involving freezing. The sample which was blanched only did not show any improvement in drying rate. In fact, a longer drying time resulted due to water absorption during blanching. There was no change in the rate for the chilled sample compared with the control. While all models closely fitted the drying data, the simple model showed greatest deviation from the experimental results. The two-term exponential model was found to be the best model for describing the drying curves of bananas because its parameters represent better the physical characteristics of the drying process. Moisture diffusivities of bananas were in the range 4.3-13.2 x 10(-10) m(2)s(-1). (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Robust model-order reduction of complex biological processes

This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The E(NK) model: extending the NK model to incorporate gene-by-environment interactions and epistasis for diploid genomes

The haploid NK model developed by Kauffman can be extended to diploid genomes and to incorporate gene-by-environment interaction effects in combination with epistasis. To provide the flexibility to include a wide range of forms of gene-by-environment interactions, a target population of environment types (TPE) is defined. The TPE consists of a set of E different environment types, each with their own frequency of occurrence. Each environment type conditions a different NK gene network structure or series of gene effects for a given network structure, providing the framework for defining gene-by-environment interactions. Thus, different NK models can be partially or completely nested within the E environment types of a TPE, giving rise to the E(NK) model for a biological system. With this model it is possible to examine how populations of genotypes evolve in context with properties of the environment that influence the contributions of genes to the fitness values of genotypes. We are using the E(NK) model to investigate how both epistasis and gene-by-environment interactions influence the genetic improvement of quantitative traits by plant breeding strategies applied to agricultural systems. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

A new level of conotoxin diversity, a non-native disulfide bond connectivity in alpha-conotoxin AuIB reduces structural definition but increases biological activity

alpha-Conotoxin AuIB and a disulfide bond variant of AuIB have been synthesized to determine the role of disulfide bond connectivity on structure and activity. Both of these peptides contain the 15 amino acid sequence GCCSYPPCFATNPDC, with the globular (native) isomer having the disulfide connectivity Cys(2-8 and 3-15) and the ribbon isomer having the disulfide connectivity Cys(2-15 and 3-8). The solution structures of the peptides were determined by NAIR spectroscopy, and their ability to block the nicotinic acetylcholine receptors on dissociated neurons of the rat parasympathetic ganglia was examined. The ribbon disulfide isomer, although having a less well defined structure, is surprisingly found to have approximately 10 times greater potency than the native peptide. To our knowledge this is the first demonstration of a non-native disulfide bond isomer of a conotoxin exhibiting greater biological activity than the native isomer.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

On the intrinsic capacity for increase of Australian flying-foxes (Pteropus spp., Megachiroptera)

In the reproductive biology of organisms, a continuum exists from "highly reproductive species" at one end to "survivor species" at the other end. Among other factors, the position of a species along this continuum affects its sensitivity to human exploitation and its vulnerability to extinction. Flying foxes are long-lived, seasonal breeders, with a rigid, well-defined breeding season that is largely or wholly genetically determined. Unlike opportunistic, highly reproductive species, such as rabbits or mice, female flying foxes are unable to produce viable young before their second or third year of life, and are then capable of producing just one young per year. Such a breeding strategy will be successful only if flying-foxes are long-lived and suffer naturally low mortality rates. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of flying foxes to extinction, using basic parameters of reproduction observed in the wild, and in captive breeding colonies of P. poliocephalus, P. alecto and P. scapulatus, and survival rates that are likely to apply to Australian conditions. Our models show explicitly that flying-fox populations have a very low capacity for increase, even under the most ideal conditions. The implications of our models are discussed in reference to the long-term management and conservation needs of Australian flying foxes. We conclude that current death-rates of flying-foxes in NSW and Queensland fruit orchards are putting state populations at serious risk.

Cost comparison of hospital- and home-based treatment models for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This trial compared the cost of an integrated home-based care model with traditional inpatient care for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 25 patients with acute COPD were randomised to either home or hospital management following request for hospital admission. The acute care at home group costs per separation ($745, CI95% $595-$895, n = 13) were significantly lower (p < 0.01) than the hospital group ($2543, CI95% $1766-$3321, n = 12). There was an improvement in lung function in the hospital-managed group at the Outpatient Department review, decreased anxiety in the Emergency Department in the home-managed group and equal patient satisfaction with care delivery. Acute care at home schemes can substitute for usual hospital care for some patients without adverse effects, and potentially release resources. A funding model that allows adequate resource delivery to the community will be needed if there is a move to devolve acute care to community providers.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.