Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

Investigating Targets of Avian Habitat Management to Eliminate an Ecological Trap

Ecological traps are attractive population sinks created when anthropogenic habitat alteration inadvertently creates a mismatch between the attractiveness of a habitat based upon its settlement cues, and its current value for survival or reproduction. Traps represent a new threat to the conservation of native species, yet little attention has been given to developing practical approaches to eliminating them. In the northern Rocky Mountains of Montana, Olive-sided Flycatchers (Contopus cooperi) prefer to settle in patches of selectively harvested forest versus burned forest despite the lower reproductive success and higher nest predation risk associated with the former habitat. I investigated characteristics of preferred perch sites for this species and how these preferences varied between habitats and sexes. I then built on previous research to develop a range of management prescriptions for reducing the attractiveness of selectively harvested forest, thereby disarming the ecological trap. Female flycatchers preferred to forage from shorter perch trees than males, and females’ perches were shorter than other available perch trees. Both sexes preferred standing dead perch trees (snags) and these preferences were most obvious in harvested forest where snags are rarer. Because previous research shows that snag density is linked to habitat preference and spruce/fir trees are preferred nest substrate, my results suggest these two habitat components are focal habitat selection cues. I suggest alternative and complementary strategies for eliminating the ecological trap for Olive-sided Flycatchers including: (1) reduced retention and creation of snags, (2) avoiding selective harvest in spruce, fir, and larch stands, (3) avoiding retention of these tree species, and (4) selecting only even-aged canopy height trees for retention so as to reduce perch availability for female flycatchers. Because these strategies also have potential to negatively impact habitat suitability for other forest species or even create new ecological traps, we urge caution in the application of our management recommendations.

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM - sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Modelling nitrogen fluxes from the land surface to the coastal zone in European systems: the perspective of the INCA project

This paper describes the results and conclusions of the INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European CAtchments) project and sets the findings in the context of the ELOISE (European Land-Ocean Interaction Studies) programme. The INCA project was concerned with the development of a generic model of the major factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in European river systems, thereby providing a tool (a) to aid the scientific understanding of nitrogen transport and retention in catchments and (b) for river-basin management and policy-making. The findings of the study highlight the heterogeneity of the factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in freshwater systems. Nonetheless, the INCA model was able to simulate the in-stream nitrogen concentrations and fluxes observed at annual and seasonal timescales in Arctic, Continental and Maritime-Temperate regimes. This result suggests that the data requirements and structural complexity of the INCA model are appropriate to simulate nitrogen fluxes across a wide range of European freshwater environments. This is a major requirement for the production of coupled fiver-estuary-coastal shelf models for the management of our aquatic environment. With regard to river-basin management, to achieve an efficient reduction in nutrient fluxes from the land to the estuarine and coastal zone, the model simulations suggest that management options must be adaptable to the prevailing environmental and socio-economic factors in individual catchments: 'Blanket approaches' to environmental policy appear too simple. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aligning sequences to structures

Most newly sequenced proteins are likely to adopt a similar structure to one which has already been experimentally determined. For this reason, the most successful approaches to protein structure prediction have been template-based methods. Such prediction methods attempt to identify and model the folds of unknown structures by aligning the target sequences to a set of representative template structures within a fold library. In this chapter, I discuss the development of template-based approaches to fold prediction, from the traditional techniques to the recent state-of-the-art methods. I also discuss the recent development of structural annotation databases, which contain models built by aligning the sequences from entire proteomes against known structures. Finally, I run through a practical step-by-step guide for aligning target sequences to known structures and contemplate the future direction of template-based structure prediction.

Statistical deconvolution of enthalpic energetic contributions to MHC-peptide binding affinity

Background: MHC Class I molecules present antigenic peptides to cytotoxic T cells, which forms an integral part of the adaptive immune response. Peptides are bound within a groove formed by the MHC heavy chain. Previous approaches to MHC Class I-peptide binding prediction have largely concentrated on the peptide anchor residues located at the P2 and C-terminus positions. Results: A large dataset comprising MHC-peptide structural complexes was created by remodelling pre-determined x-ray crystallographic structures. Static energetic analysis, following energy minimisation, was performed on the dataset in order to characterise interactions between bound peptides and the MHC Class I molecule, partitioning the interactions within the groove into van der Waals, electrostatic and total non-bonded energy contributions. Conclusion: The QSAR techniques of Genetic Function Approximation (GFA) and Genetic Partial Least Squares (G/PLS) algorithms were used to identify key interactions between the two molecules by comparing the calculated energy values with experimentally-determined BL50 data. Although the peptide termini binding interactions help ensure the stability of the MHC Class I-peptide complex, the central region of the peptide is also important in defining the specificity of the interaction. As thermodynamic studies indicate that peptide association and dissociation may be driven entropically, it may be necessary to incorporate entropic contributions into future calculations.

Perspectives on experiences of innovation: the development of an assessment methodology appropriate to construction project organizations

The UK construction industry is in the process of trying to adopt a new culture based on the large-scale take up of innovative practices. Through the Demonstration Project process many organizations are implementing changed practices and learning from the experiences of others. This is probably the largest experiment in innovation in any industry in recent times. The long-term success will be measured by the effectiveness of embedding the new practices in the organization. As yet there is no recognized approach to measuring the receptivity of the organization to the innovation process as an indication of the likelihood of long-term development. The development of an appropriate approach is described here. Existing approaches to the measurement of the take up of innovation were reviewed and where appropriate used as the base for the development of a questionnaire. The questionnaire could be applicable to multi-organizational construction project situations such that the output could determine an individual organization's innovative practices via an innovation scorecard, a project team's approach or it could be used to survey a wide cross-section of the industry.

Kinetic models as a route to control acrylamide formation in food

Reports that heat processing of foods induces the formation of acrylamide heightened interest in the chemistry, biochemistry, and safety of this compound. Acrylamide-induced neurotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, genotoxicity, and carcinogenicity are potential human health risks based on animal studies. Because exposure of humans to acrylamide can come from both external sources and the diet, there exists a need to develop a better understanding of its formation and distribution in food and its role in human health. To contribute to this effort, experts from eight countries have presented data on the chemistry, analysis, metabolism, pharmacology, and toxicology of acrylamide. Specifically covered are the following aspects: exposure from the environment and the diet; biomarkers of exposure; risk assessment; epidemiology; mechanism of formation in food; biological alkylation of amino acids, peptides, proteins, and DNA by acrylamide and its epoxide metabolite glycidamide; neurotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, and carcinogenicity; protection against adverse effects; and possible approaches to reducing levels in food. Cross-fertilization of ideas among several disciplines in which an interest in acrylamide has developed, including food science, pharmacology, toxicology, and medicine, will provide a better understanding of the chemistry and biology of acrylamide in food, and can lead to the development of food processes to decrease the acrylamide content of the diet.

Weight of evidence needed to substantiate a health effect for probiotics and prebiotics: regulatory considerations in Canada, EU, and US

Successful and responsible introduction of probiotic and prebiotic products into the worldwide marketplace requires labelling for health benefits that meets consumer needs, adheres to regulatory standards and does not overextend scientific evidence. Regulations differ among countries, but underlying all is an emphasis on scientific credibility of any statements of health benefits. This paper considers the value of different types of evidence offered in substantiation of efficacy and reviews different regulatory approaches to labelling for health claims. Limitations of in vitro, animal and different types of human studies used for efficacy substantiation for probiotics and prebiotics are discussed.

Bacteria in the gut: friends and foes and how to alter the balance

The activities of the bacteria resident in the colon of companion animals can have an impact upon the health of the host. Our understanding of this microbial ecosystem is presently increasing due to the development of DNA-based microbiological tools that allow identification and enumeration of nonculturable microorganisms. These techniques are changing our view of the bacteria that live in the gut, and they are facilitating dietary-intervention approaches to modulate the colonic ecosystem. This is generally achieved by the feeding of either live bacteria (probiotics) or nondigestible oligosaccharides (prebiotics) that selectively feed the indigenous probiotics. Feeding studies with a Lactobacillus acidophilus probiotic have shown positive effects on carriage of Clostridium spp. in canines and on recovery from Campylobacter spp. infection in felines. Immune function was improved in both species. Prebiotic feeding studies with lactosucrose and fructo-oligosaccharides in both cats and dogs have shown positive effects on the microflora balance. Recently synbiotic forms (a probiotic together with a prebiotic) targeted at canines have been developed that show promise as dietary-intervention tools.

Requirements analysis for an e-government system to support multi-organisational collaborative groups

We present a conceptual architecture for a Group Support System (GSS) to facilitate Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) initiated by local government and including external organisations of various types. Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) consist of individuals from several organisations which have agreed to work together to solve a problem. The expectation is that more can be achieved working in harmony than separately. Work is done interdependently, rather than independently in diverse directions. Local government, faced with solving complex social problems, deploy MOCGs to enable solutions across organisational, functional, professional and juridical boundaries, by involving statutory, voluntary, community, not-for-profit and private organisations. This is not a silver bullet as it introduces new pressures. Each member organisation has its own goals, operating context and particular approaches, which can be expressed as their norms and business processes. Organisations working together must find ways of eliminating differences or mitigating their impact in order to reduce the risks of collaborative inertia and conflict. A GSS is an electronic collaboration system that facilitates group working and can offer assistance to MOCGs. Since many existing GSSs have been primarily developed for single organisation collaborative groups, even though there are some common issues, there are some difficulties peculiar to MOCGs, and others that they experience to a greater extent: a diversity of primary organisational goals among members; different funding models and other pressures; more significant differences in other information systems both technologically and in their use than single organisations; greater variation in acceptable approaches to solve problems. In this paper, we analyse the requirements of MOCGs led by local government agencies, leading to a conceptual architecture for an e-government GSS that captures the relationships between 'goal', 'context', 'norm', and 'business process'. Our models capture the dynamics of the circumstances surrounding each individual representing an organisation in a MOCG along with the dynamics of the MOCG itself as a separate community.

What does a transdiagnostic approach have to offer the treatment of anxiety disorders?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review the rationale for 'transdiagnostic' approaches to the understanding and treatment of anxiety disorders. Methods: Databases searches and examination of the reference lists of relevant studies were used to identify papers of relevance. Results: There is increasing recognition that diagnosis-specific interventions for single anxiety-disorders are of less value than might appear since a large proportion of patients have more than one co-existing anxiety disorder and the treatment of one anxiety disorder does not necessarily lead to the resolution of others. As transdiagnostic approaches have the potential to address multiple co-existing anxiety disorders they are potentially more clinically relevant than single anxiety disorder interventions. They may also have advantages in ease of dissemination and in treating anxiety disorder not otherwise specified. Conclusions: The merits of the various transdiagnostic cognitive-behavioral approaches that have been proposed are reviewed. Such approaches have potential benefits, particularly in striking the balance between completely idiosyncratic formulations and diagnosis-driven treatments of anxiety disorders. However, caution is needed to ensure that transdiagnostic theories and treatments benefit from progress made by research on diagnosis-specific treatments, and further empirical work is needed to identify the shared maintaining processes that need to be targeted in the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Exploring the relationship between listening development and strategy use

This paper reports on an investigation into the development of the listening proficiency and strategic behaviour of 15 lower-intermediate learners of French in England. We consider whether listeners remain in the same listening proficiency group after six months, and whether changes in strategy use are related to movement or non-movement between listening proficiency groups. We also examine whether learners’ strategic behaviour reflects their teachers’ approaches to listening. Data were gathered at two time points from a recall protocol which learners completed after listening to short passages and from verbal reports made by learners while they completed a multiple choice listening task. Teacher interviews provided information on how listening had been presented in learners' classrooms. We detected little movement by students across the listening proficiency groups between the two time points. In spite of some changes in frequency of strategy use, we also observed stability in manner of use by some learners. Differences in strategy use were more evident between groups (non-movers, improvers and decliners) than between uses from Time 1 to Time 2. We conclude by discussing the pedagogical implications of these findings.