Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and annual maintenance of the building, especially on energy demand and other occupancy expenses paid by the tenants to the landlord. From the investor´s point of view, this blind spot in strategy development will possibly decrease their profit margin as changes in the occupancy expenses[ ] have a direct outcome on the profit margin. In order to try to reduce some higher operating cost components such as energy use and other utility savings as well as their CO2 emissions, quite a few income properties worldwide have some type of environmental label such as BREEAM and LEED. The drawback identified in this labelling is that usually the investments required to get an ecolabel are high and the investor finds no direct evidence that it increases market value. However there is research on certified commercial properties (especially offices) that shows better performance in terms of occupancy rate and rental cost (Warren-Myers, 2012). Additionally, Sayce (2013) says that the certification only provides a quick reference point i.e. the lack of a certificate does not indicate that a building is not sustainable or efficient. Based on the issues described above, this research compares important components of the development stages such as investments costs, concept/ strategy development as well as the current investor income and property value. The subjects for this analysis are a shopping centre designed with passive cooling/bioclimatic strategies evaluated at the decision making stage, a certified regional shopping centre and a non-certified standard regional shopping centre. Moreover, the proposal intends to provide decision makers with some tools for linking green design features to the investment analysis in order to optimize the decision making process when looking into cost savings and design quality.

Assessment methodology applied to demand measures to change urban mobility behavior

In order to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. Transport modelling literature has been increasingly aware that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users’ social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced; but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely dealt with. The overall objective of the thesis is to develop a stepped methodology that integrate diverse perspectives to evaluate the willingness to change patterns of urban mobility in Madrid, based on four steps: (1st) analysis of causal relationships between both objective and subjective personal variables, and travel behavior to capture pro-car and pro-public transport intentions; (2nd) exploring the potential influence of individual trip characteristics and social influence variables on transport mode choice; (3rd) identifying built environment dimensions on travel behavior; and (4th) exploring the potential influence on transport mode choice of extrinsic characteristics of individual trip using panel data, land use variables using spatial characteristics and social influence variables. The data used for this thesis have been collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) carried out in Madrid. Although the steps above are mainly methodological, the application to the area of Madrid allows deriving important results that can be directly used to forecast travel demand and to evaluate the benefits of specific policies that might be implemented in the area. The results demonstrated, respectively: (1st) transport policy actions are more likely to be effective when pro-car intention has been disrupted first; (2nd) the consideration of “helped” and “voluntary” users as tested here could have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on the use of public transport; (3rd) the importance of density, design, diversity and accessibility underlying dimensions responsible for land use variables; and (4th) there are clearly different types of combinations of social interactions, land use and time frame on travel behavior studies. Finally, with the objective to study the impact of demand measures to change urban mobility behavior, those previous results have been considered in a unique way, a hybrid discrete choice model has been used on a 5th step. Then it can be concluded that urban mobility behavior is not only ruled by the maximum utility criterion, but also by a strong psychological-environment concept, developed without the mediation of cognitive processes during choice, i.e., many people using public transport on their way to work do not do it for utilitarian reasons, but because no other choice is available. Regarding built environment dimensions, the more diversity place of residence, the more difficult the use of public transport or walking.

Evaluation of configurations of supply networks supported by it systems

Los sistemas transaccionales tales como los programas informáticos para la planificación de recursos empresariales (ERP software) se han implementado ampliamente mientras que los sistemas analíticos para la gestión de la cadena de suministro (SCM software) no han tenido el éxito deseado por la industria de tecnología de información (TI). Aunque se documentan beneficios importantes derivados de las implantaciones de SCM software, las empresas industriales son reacias a invertir en este tipo de sistemas. Por una parte esto es debido a la falta de métodos que son capaces de detectar los beneficios por emplear esos sistemas, y por otra parte porque el coste asociado no está identificado, detallado y cuantificado suficientemente. Los esquemas de coordinación basados únicamente en sistemas ERP son alternativas válidas en la práctica industrial siempre que la relación coste-beneficio esta favorable. Por lo tanto, la evaluación de formas organizativas teniendo en cuenta explícitamente el coste debido a procesos administrativos, en particular por ciclos iterativos, es de gran interés para la toma de decisiones en el ámbito de inversiones en TI. Con el fin de cerrar la brecha, el propósito de esta investigación es proporcionar métodos de evaluación que permitan la comparación de diferentes formas de organización y niveles de soporte por sistemas informáticos. La tesis proporciona una amplia introducción, analizando los retos a los que se enfrenta la industria. Concluye con las necesidades de la industria de SCM software: unas herramientas que facilitan la evaluación integral de diferentes propuestas de organización. A continuación, la terminología clave se detalla centrándose en la teoría de la organización, las peculiaridades de inversión en TI y la tipología de software de gestión de la cadena de suministro. La revisión de la literatura clasifica las contribuciones recientes sobre la gestión de la cadena de suministro, tratando ambos conceptos, el diseño de la organización y su soporte por las TI. La clasificación incluye criterios relacionados con la metodología de la investigación y su contenido. Los estudios empíricos en el ámbito de la administración de empresas se centran en tipologías de redes industriales. Nuevos algoritmos de planificación y esquemas de coordinación innovadoras se desarrollan principalmente en el campo de la investigación de operaciones con el fin de proponer nuevas funciones de software. Artículos procedentes del área de la gestión de la producción se centran en el análisis de coste y beneficio de las implantaciones de sistemas. La revisión de la literatura revela que el éxito de las TI para la coordinación de redes industriales depende en gran medida de características de tres dimensiones: la configuración de la red industrial, los esquemas de coordinación y las funcionalidades del software. La literatura disponible está enfocada sobre todo en los beneficios de las implantaciones de SCM software. Sin embargo, la coordinación de la cadena de suministro, basándose en el sistema ERP, sigue siendo la práctica industrial generalizada, pero el coste de coordinación asociado no ha sido abordado por los investigadores. Los fundamentos de diseño organizativo eficiente se explican en detalle en la medida necesaria para la comprensión de la síntesis de las diferentes formas de organización. Se han generado varios esquemas de coordinación variando los siguientes parámetros de diseño: la estructura organizativa, los mecanismos de coordinación y el soporte por TI. Las diferentes propuestas de organización desarrolladas son evaluadas por un método heurístico y otro basado en la simulación por eventos discretos. Para ambos métodos, se tienen en cuenta los principios de la teoría de la organización. La falta de rendimiento empresarial se debe a las dependencias entre actividades que no se gestionan adecuadamente. Dentro del método heurístico, se clasifican las dependencias y se mide su intensidad basándose en factores contextuales. A continuación, se valora la idoneidad de cada elemento de diseño organizativo para cada dependencia específica. Por último, cada forma de organización se evalúa basándose en la contribución de los elementos de diseño tanto al beneficio como al coste. El beneficio de coordinación se refiere a la mejora en el rendimiento logístico - este concepto es el objeto central en la mayoría de modelos de evaluación de la gestión de la cadena de suministro. Por el contrario, el coste de coordinación que se debe incurrir para lograr beneficios no se suele considerar en detalle. Procesos iterativos son costosos si se ejecutan manualmente. Este es el caso cuando SCM software no está implementada y el sistema ERP es el único instrumento de coordinación disponible. El modelo heurístico proporciona un procedimiento simplificado para la clasificación sistemática de las dependencias, la cuantificación de los factores de influencia y la identificación de configuraciones que indican el uso de formas organizativas y de soporte de TI más o menos complejas. La simulación de eventos discretos se aplica en el segundo modelo de evaluación utilizando el paquete de software ‘Plant Simulation’. Con respecto al rendimiento logístico, por un lado se mide el coste de fabricación, de inventario y de transporte y las penalizaciones por pérdida de ventas. Por otro lado, se cuantifica explícitamente el coste de la coordinación teniendo en cuenta los ciclos de coordinación iterativos. El método se aplica a una configuración de cadena de suministro ejemplar considerando diversos parámetros. Los resultados de la simulación confirman que, en la mayoría de los casos, el beneficio aumenta cuando se intensifica la coordinación. Sin embargo, en ciertas situaciones en las que se aplican ciclos de planificación manuales e iterativos el coste de coordinación adicional no siempre conduce a mejor rendimiento logístico. Estos resultados inesperados no se pueden atribuir a ningún parámetro particular. La investigación confirma la gran importancia de nuevas dimensiones hasta ahora ignoradas en la evaluación de propuestas organizativas y herramientas de TI. A través del método heurístico se puede comparar de forma rápida, pero sólo aproximada, la eficiencia de diferentes formas de organización. Por el contrario, el método de simulación es más complejo pero da resultados más detallados, teniendo en cuenta parámetros específicos del contexto del caso concreto y del diseño organizativo. ABSTRACT Transactional systems such as Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems have been implemented widely while analytical software like Supply Chain Management (SCM) add-ons are adopted less by manufacturing companies. Although significant benefits are reported stemming from SCM software implementations, companies are reluctant to invest in such systems. On the one hand this is due to the lack of methods that are able to detect benefits from the use of SCM software and on the other hand associated costs are not identified, detailed and quantified sufficiently. Coordination schemes based only on ERP systems are valid alternatives in industrial practice because significant investment in IT can be avoided. Therefore, the evaluation of these coordination procedures, in particular the cost due to iterations, is of high managerial interest and corresponding methods are comprehensive tools for strategic IT decision making. The purpose of this research is to provide evaluation methods that allow the comparison of different organizational forms and software support levels. The research begins with a comprehensive introduction dealing with the business environment that industrial networks are facing and concludes highlighting the challenges for the supply chain software industry. Afterwards, the central terminology is addressed, focusing on organization theory, IT investment peculiarities and supply chain management software typology. The literature review classifies recent supply chain management research referring to organizational design and its software support. The classification encompasses criteria related to research methodology and content. Empirical studies from management science focus on network types and organizational fit. Novel planning algorithms and innovative coordination schemes are developed mostly in the field of operations research in order to propose new software features. Operations and production management researchers realize cost-benefit analysis of IT software implementations. The literature review reveals that the success of software solutions for network coordination depends strongly on the fit of three dimensions: network configuration, coordination scheme and software functionality. Reviewed literature is mostly centered on the benefits of SCM software implementations. However, ERP system based supply chain coordination is still widespread industrial practice but the associated coordination cost has not been addressed by researchers. Fundamentals of efficient organizational design are explained in detail as far as required for the understanding of the synthesis of different organizational forms. Several coordination schemes have been shaped through the variation of the following design parameters: organizational structuring, coordination mechanisms and software support. The different organizational proposals are evaluated using a heuristic approach and a simulation-based method. For both cases, the principles of organization theory are respected. A lack of performance is due to dependencies between activities which are not managed properly. Therefore, within the heuristic method, dependencies are classified and their intensity is measured based on contextual factors. Afterwards the suitability of each organizational design element for the management of a specific dependency is determined. Finally, each organizational form is evaluated based on the contribution of the sum of design elements to coordination benefit and to coordination cost. Coordination benefit refers to improvement in logistic performance – this is the core concept of most supply chain evaluation models. Unfortunately, coordination cost which must be incurred to achieve benefits is usually not considered in detail. Iterative processes are costly when manually executed. This is the case when SCM software is not implemented and the ERP system is the only available coordination instrument. The heuristic model provides a simplified procedure for the classification of dependencies, quantification of influence factors and systematic search for adequate organizational forms and IT support. Discrete event simulation is applied in the second evaluation model using the software package ‘Plant Simulation’. On the one hand logistic performance is measured by manufacturing, inventory and transportation cost and penalties for lost sales. On the other hand coordination cost is explicitly considered taking into account iterative coordination cycles. The method is applied to an exemplary supply chain configuration considering various parameter settings. The simulation results confirm that, in most cases, benefit increases when coordination is intensified. However, in some situations when manual, iterative planning cycles are applied, additional coordination cost does not always lead to improved logistic performance. These unexpected results cannot be attributed to any particular parameter. The research confirms the great importance of up to now disregarded dimensions when evaluating SCM concepts and IT tools. The heuristic method provides a quick, but only approximate comparison of coordination efficiency for different organizational forms. In contrast, the more complex simulation method delivers detailed results taking into consideration specific parameter settings of network context and organizational design.

Environmental analysis of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant hybridised with different fossil and renewable fuels

The environmental performance of a 50 MW parabolic trough Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant hybridised with different fuels was determined using a Life Cycle Assessment methodology. Six different scenarios were investigated, half of which involved hybridisation with fossil fuels (natural gas, coal and fuel oil), and the other three involved hybridisation with renewable fuels (wheat straw, wood pellets and biogas). Each scenario was compared to a solar-only operation. Nine different environmental categories as well as the Cumulative Energy Demand and the Energy Payback Time (EPT) were evaluated using Simapro software for 1 MWh of electricity produced. The results indicate a worse environmental performance for a CSP plant producing 12% of the electricity from fuel than in a solar-only operation for every indicator, except for the eutrophication and toxicity categories, whose results for the natural gas scenario are slightly better. In the climate change category, the results ranged between 26.9 and 187 kg CO2 eq/MWh, where a solar-only operation had the best results and coal hybridisation had the worst. Considering a weighted single score indicator, the environmental impact of the renewable fuels scenarios is approximately half of those considered in fossil fuels, with the straw scenario showing the best results, and the coal scenario the worstones. EPT for solar-only mode is 1.44 years, while hybridisation scenarios EPT vary in a range of 1.72 -1.83 years for straw and pellets respectively. The fuels with more embodied energy are biomethane and wood pellets.

Experimental and numerical study of wind flow behind windbreaks

The shelter effect of a windbreak protects aggregate piles and provides a reduction of particle emissions in harbours. RANS (Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations) simulations using three variants of k–ε (standard k–ε, RNG k–ε and realizable k–ε) turbulence closure models have been performed to analyse wind flow characteristics behind an isolated fence located on a flat surface without roughness elements. The performance of the three turbulence models has been assessed by wind tunnel experiments. Cases of fences with different porosities (φ) have been evaluated using wind tunnel experiments as well as numerical simulations. The aim is to determine an optimum porosity for sheltering effect of an isolated windbreak. A value of 0.35 was found as the optimum value among the studied porosities (φ=0, 0.1, 0.24, 0.35, 0.4, 0.5).

Amelioration of a degraded acid soil from SW Spain by no-tillage and Ca-amendment

En los suelos, el exceso de acidez lleva asociado deficiencias en ciertos nutrientes y una alta disponibilidad de aluminio, tóxico para los cultivos propios del ambiente mediterráneo. Su laboreo, provoca la pérdida de materia orgánica (MO), deteriora su estructura y reduce la actividad biológica, provocando en última instancia una menor calidad del suelo. Es de esperar pues que cuando se labran suelos ácidos, sus problemáticas particulares tiendan a agravarse. En nuestra zona de estudio, la “raña” de Cañamero (Extremadura, España), predominan los suelos muy ácidos y degradados por un laboreo inadecuado. Las rañas constituyen amplias plataformas casi horizontales, con unos suelos muy viejos (Palexerults), que se caracterizan por tener el complejo de cambio dominado por el aluminio, y un pH ácido que decrece en profundidad. Poseen un potente horizonte Bt rico en arcillas caoliníticas, que propicia que en periodos con exceso de lluvia, se generen capas colgadas de agua cercanas a la superficie. En torno a los años 1940’s estos suelos, que previamente sostenían un alcornocal, o su matorral de sustitución, se pusieron en cultivo. El laboreo aceleró la mineralización de la materia orgánica, agravó los problemas derivados del exceso de acidez y condujo al abandono de los campos cultivados por falta de productividad. Para recuperar la calidad de estos suelos degradados y obtener unos rendimientos compatibles con su uso agrícola es necesario, por un lado, aplicar enmiendas que eleven el pH y reduzcan la toxicidad del aluminio y, por otro, favorecer el incremento en el contenido en MO. En 2005 se implantó en esta raña un ensayo de campo para estudiar la influencia del no laboreo y de la utilización de una enmienda cálcica en parámetros relacionados con la calidad del suelo en un cultivo forrajero. El diseño experimental fue en parcelas divididas con cuatro repeticiones donde el factor principal fue el tipo de laboreo, no laboreo (NL) frente a laboreo convencional (LC), y el factor secundario el uso o no de una enmienda cálcica. La enmienda consistió básicamente en una mezcla de espuma de azucarería y yeso rojo y se incorporó al comienzo del ensayo hasta los 7 cm de profundidad. Desde el comienzo del ensayo el NL influyó positivamente en el contenido de carbono orgánico total (COT) y particulado (COP), mientras que la enmienda tuvo una ligera influencia al principio del ensayo en ambos pero su efecto positivo se desvaneció con el paso del tiempo. Los mayores contenidos en COT y POC se observaron cuando se combinó el NL con la enmienda. La enmienda incrementó con rapidez el pH, y el Ca, y disminuyó el contenido en aluminio hasta una profundidad de 50 cm, incluso en NL, y mejoró ligeramente la agregación del suelo. El NL por sí solo, gracias al aumento en POC, TOC y las proteínas del suelo relacionadas con la glomalina (PSRG), que son capaces de formar compuestos estables no tóxicos con el aluminio, también contribuyó a la reducción de la toxicidad de aluminio en la capa más superficial. Cuando en las campañas con exceso de precipitaciones se generaron capas colgadas de agua próximas a la superficie, el NL generó unas condiciones más favorables para la germinación y desarrollo del cultivo, resultando en una producción más alta que el LC. A ello contribuyó la mayor capacidad de almacenamiento de agua y la mayor transmisividad de esta hacia abajo, en la capa más superficial (0-5 cm) que propició una menor saturación por agua que el LC. Respecto a los parámetros relacionados con la agregación, el NL aumentó los macroagregados hasta los 10 cm de profundidad y favoreció la acumulación de CO y N en todas las fracciones de tamaño de agregados. Sin embargo, la recuperación del grado de macroagregación tras el cese del laboreo resulta lenta en comparación con otros suelos, posiblemente debido al bajo contenido en arcilla en el horizonte Ap. En comparación con el NL, la enmienda mostró también un efecto positivo, aunque muy ligero, en la agregación del suelo. En contradicción con otros estudios en suelos ácidos, nuestros resultados indican la existencia de una jerarquía de agregados, y destacan el papel importante de la MO en la mejora de la agregación. Tanto el NL como la enmienda favorecieron por separado varias propiedades químicas, físicas y biológicas del suelo, pero, en general, encontramos los mayores beneficios con su uso combinado. Además, a largo plazo el efecto positivo de NL en las propiedades del suelo fue en aumento, mientras que el efecto beneficioso de la enmienda se limitó básicamente a las propiedades químicas y se desvaneció en pocos años. Destacamos que las condiciones meteorológicas a lo largo del ensayo beneficiaron la producción de biomasa en NL, y en consecuencia las propiedades relacionadas con la materia orgánica, por lo que son un factor a tener en cuenta a la hora de evaluar los efectos de la enmienda y el laboreo sobre las propiedades del suelo, especialmente en zonas donde esas condiciones son muy variables entre una campaña y otra. Los resultados de este estudio han puesto de manifiesto que el NL no ha mermado la eficacia de la enmienda caliza, posiblemente gracias a la alta solubilidad de la enmienda aplicada, es más, el manejo con NL y enmienda es el que ha favorecido en mayor medida ciertos parámetros de calidad del suelo. Por el contrario el LC sí parece anular los beneficios de la enmienda en relación con las propiedades relacionadas con la MO. Por tanto, cabe concluir que la combinación de NL y la enmienda es una práctica adecuada para mejorar las propiedades químicas y físicas de suelos ácidos degradados por el laboreo. ABSTRACT Excessive acidity in soils is associated with deficiencies in certain nutrients and high concentrations of available aluminum, which is toxic for most Mediterranean crops. Tilling these soils results in the loss of soil organic matter (SOM), damages soil structure and reduces biological activity, ultimately degrading soil quality. It is expected, therefore, that when acid soils are tilled, their particular problems will tend to get worse. In our study area, the "Cañamero’s Raña” (Extremadura, Spain), acid soils degraded by an inappropriate tillage prevail. Rañas are large and flat platforms with very old soils (Palexerults), which are characterized by an exchange complex dominated by aluminum and an acid pH which decreases with depth. These soils have a strong Bt horizon rich in kaolinite clays, which encourages the formation of perched water-tables near the soil surface during periods of excessive rain. During the first third of the 20th century, these soils, that previously supported cork oak or its scrub replacement, were cultivated. Tillage accelerated the mineralization of the SOM, aggravating the problems of excessive acidity, which finally led to the abandonment of the land due to low productivity. To recover the quality of these degraded soils and to obtain consistent yields it is necessary, first, to apply amendments to raise the pH and reduce aluminum toxicity, and second to encourage the accumulation of SOM. In 2005 a field trial was established in the Raña to study the influence of no-tillage and the use of a Ca-amendment on soil quality related parameters in a forage crop agrosystem. The experimental design was a split-plot with four replicates where the main factor was tillage type, no-tillage (NT) versus traditional tillage (TT) and the secondary factor was the use or not of a Ca-amendment. The Ca-amendment was a mixture of sugar foam and red gypsum that was incorporated into the top 7 cm of the soil. Since the beginning of the experiment, NT had a positive influence on total and particulate organic carbon (TOC and POC, respectively), while the Ca-amendment had a small positive influence at the beginning of the study but its effect diminished with time. The highest TOC and POC contents were observed when NT and the Ca-amendment were combined. The Ca-amendment, even under NT, rapidly increased pH and Ca, and decreased the aluminum content to a depth of 50 cm, as well as improving soil aggregation slightly. NT, due to the increased POC, TOC and Glomalin-related soil proteins (GRSP), which can form stable non-toxic compounds with aluminum, also contributed to the reduction of aluminum toxicity in the upper layer. When perched water-tables near the soil surface were formed in campaigns with excessive rainfall, NT provided more favorable conditions for germination and crop development, resulting in higher yields compared with TT. This was directly related to the higher water storage capacity and the greater transmissivity of the water downwards from the upper layers, which led to lower water saturation under NT compared with TT. With regards to the aggregation-related parameters, NT increased macroaggregation to a depth of 10 cm and favored the accumulation of OC and N in all aggregate size fractions. However, the degree of recovery of macroaggregation after tillage ceased was slow compared with other soils, possibly due to the low clay content in the Ap horizon. Compared with NT, the Ca-amendment had a slight positive effect on soil aggregation. In contrast to other studies in acid soils, our results indicate the existence of an aggregate hierarchy, and highlight the important role of SOM in improving aggregation. Both NT and the Ca-amendment separately favored various chemical, physical and biological soil properties, but in general we found the greatest benefits when the two treatments were combined. In addition, the positive effect of NT on soil properties increased with time, while the beneficial effect of the Ca-amendment, which was limited to the chemical properties, vanished after a few years. It is important to note that the meteorological conditions throughout the experiment benefited biomass production under NT and, as a consequence, organic matter related properties. This suggests that meteorological conditions are a factor to consider when evaluating the effects of Ca-amendments and tillage on soil properties, especially in areas where such conditions vary significantly from one campaign to another. The results of this study show that NT did not diminish the effectiveness of the Ca-amendment, possibly due to the high solubility of the selected amendment. Moreover, the combination of NT and the Ca-amendment was actually the management that favored certain soil quality parameters the most. By contrast, TT seemed to nullify the benefits of the Ca-amendment with regards to the OM related properties. In conclusion, the combination of NT and the application of a Ca-amendment is an advisable practice for improving the chemical and physical properties of acid soils degraded by tillage.

Inhibition of human telomerase in immortal human cells leads to progressive telomere shortening and cell death

The correlation between telomerase activity and human tumors has led to the hypothesis that tumor growth requires reactivation of telomerase and that telomerase inhibitors represent a class of chemotherapeutic agents. Herein, we examine the effects of inhibition of telomerase inside human cells. Peptide nucleic acid and 2′-O-MeRNA oligomers inhibit telomerase, leading to progressive telomere shortening and causing immortal human breast epithelial cells to undergo apoptosis with increasing frequency until no cells remain. Telomere shortening is reversible: if inhibitor addition is terminated, telomeres regain their initial lengths. Our results validate telomerase as a target for the discovery of anticancer drugs and supply general insights into the properties that successful agents will require regardless of chemical type. Chemically similar oligonucleotides are in clinical trials and have well characterized pharmacokinetics, making the inhibitors we describe practical lead compounds for testing for an antitelomerase chemotherapeutic strategy.

Simultaneous synthesis of heat exchanger networks with pressure recovery: optimal integration between heat and work

The optimal integration between heat and work may significantly reduce the energy demand and consequently the process cost. This paper introduces a new mathematical model for the simultaneous synthesis of heat exchanger networks (HENs) in which the pressure levels of the process streams can be adjusted to enhance the heat integration. A superstructure is proposed for the HEN design with pressure recovery, developed via generalized disjunctive programming (GDP) and mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) formulation. The process conditions (stream temperature and pressure) must be optimized. Furthermore, the approach allows for coupling of the turbines and compressors and selection of the turbines and valves to minimize the total annualized cost, which consists of the operational and capital expenses. The model is tested for its applicability in three case studies, including a cryogenic application. The results indicate that the energy integration reduces the quantity of utilities required, thus decreasing the overall cost.

Economic cycles, asymmetric crises and tourism competitiveness: emerging versus mature destinations

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on tourism destinations competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing a period of forty years, the differential permanent or temporary effects that economic crises has on competitiveness of mature and emerging destinations are observed. Furthermore, it identifies the economic transmission mechanisms operating within this context, analysing them using the framework of the most relevant explanatory models of tourism destination competitiveness. The preliminary results obtained suggest that the effects of these shocks on competitiveness are not neutral. In mature destinations the negative effects are more persistent in highly intensive crises. In emerging destinations with a growing natural trend on tourism demand, the effects of the economic crises are softer and limited, reinforcing the process of convergence between destinations. This effect works through two basic transmission mechanisms: the reduction of internal and external tourism demand and the decrease on investment.

Causal Maps and Indirect Influences Analysis in the Diagnosis of Second-Home Tourism Impacts

This paper proposes a method for diagnosing the impacts of second-home tourism and illustrates it for a Mediterranean Spanish destination. This method proposes the application of network analysis software to the analysis of causal maps in order to create a causal network model based on stakeholder-identified impacts. The main innovation is the analysis of indirect relations in causal maps for the identification of the most influential nodes in the model. The results show that the most influential nodes are of a political nature, which contradicts previous diagnoses identifying technical planning as the ultimate cause of problems.

Ireland and Northern Ireland, 1705 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: A mapp of the kingdom of Ireland : newly corrected & improv'd by actual observations : divided into its provinces, counties, & baronies, and supply'd with many market towns & other places of note omitted in former mapps ... : together with plans of the citys and fortified towns, as allso a short description of the kingdom by Henry Pratt ; to this map is added a large index of the measur'd distances of ev'ry town from Dublin, of the burroughs, barracks, and post towns with many other improuements and emendations ; I. Harris, sculp. It was published by H. Pratt in 1708. Scale [ca. 1:385,000]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Irish Grid (Transverse Mercator 1965 (TM-65)) coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, major roads, territorial and administrative boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown pictorially. Includes also text, index, 16 ancillary town maps, and inset: The sea coasts of Great Britain and Ireland.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Exports and Capacity Constraints: A smooth transition regression model for six euro-area countries. CEPS Working Document No. 395/May 2014

The significant gains in export market shares made in a number of vulnerable euro-area crisis countries have not been accompanied by an appropriate improvement in price competitiveness. This paper argues that, under certain conditions, firms consider export activity as a substitute for serving domestic demand. The strength of the link between domestic demand and exports is dependent on capacity constraints. Our econometric model for six euro-area countries suggests domestic demand pressure and capacity-constraint restrictions as additional variables of a properly specified export equation. As an innovation to the literature, we assess the empirical significance through the logistic and the exponential variant of the non-linear smooth transition regression model. We find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports in particular during more extreme stages of the business cycle. A strong substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for Spain, Portugal and Italy, providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade.

So far apart and yet so close: Should the ECB care about inflation differentials? Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2014/10 September 2014

Inflation rates can differ across regions of monetary unions. We show that in the euro area, the US, Canada, Japan and Australia, inflation rates have been substantially and persistently different in different regions. Differences were particularly substantial in the euro area. Inflation differences can reflect normal adjustment processes such as price convergence or the Balassa-Samuelson effect, or can reflect the different cyclical position of regions. But they can also be the result of economic distortions resulting from segmented markets or unsustainable demand and credit developments fueled by low real interest rates. In normal times, the European Central Bank cannot influence such developments with its single interest rate instrument. However, unconventional policy measures can have different effects on different countries depending on the chosen instrument, and should be used to reduce fragmentation and ensure the proper transmission of monetary policy. The new macro prudential policy tools are unlikely to be practical in addressing inflation divergences. It is crucial to keep the average inflation rate close to two percent so that inflation differentials are possible without deflation in some parts of the euro area, which in turn might endanger area-wide financial stability and price stability.

Growth for Europe – Is the Juncker Plan the answer? EPC Discussion Paper, 20 March 2015

Executive Summary. The euro area is still suffering from low growth and high unemployment. For the recovery to become a reality, there needs to be a balance between fiscal discipline, supply side improvements and actions aimed at stimulating demand and growth. Increasing investment, both private and public, are important components in overcoming the recession. This becomes especially clear when comparing investment dynamics during the crisis with pre-crisis levels. Total investment is still much lower than before the crisis and public investment is well below its pre-crisis peak as well. In late November 2014, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker submitted a long-awaited proposal for a European Investment Plan that aims to stimulate private investment. Apart from the creation of the new European Fund for Strategic Investment (EFSI), through which private investors will receive public guarantees, the investment plan also aims to provide project assistance and improve the Single Market by removing sector-specific or other financial barriers to investment. While generally perceived as a first positive step towards increasing private investment, some commentators have expressed reservations about the plan. These include, among others, the lack of fresh money for the initial contributions to EFSI. Since a substantial amount of these contributions is reshuffled from other places in the European budget, the question was raised whether EFSI can fund additional projects or just replicates investment projects that would have happened without the plan. Other criticism relates to the high estimate of the expected leverage ratio of 1:15, and to the risk that the plan will only have a limited impact on stressed economies. The Juncker Plan addresses private investment, but so far there really is no clear strategy to stimulate productive public investment on the European and national level. Countries with fiscal space are reluctant to engage in higher spending, while those willing and in need of it the most are restricted by the rules. Member States and the Commission should therefore discuss options for further improving the euro area's economic governance. In addition to urging countries with fiscal space to increase investing in national public goods, investment could be treated with budget flexibility. One could, for instance, upgrade the importance of public investment in the European Semester. Additional deficit granted for public investment purposes could be attached to certain Country-Specific Recommendations. Another solution would be to allow some form of budget flexibility, such as the formulation of a new Golden Rule for productive public investment becoming part of the Stability and Growth Pact's application. Besides relying on a larger amount of flexibility in the rules, the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could be another solution to fund investment in European public goods. It will also be necessary to overcome the mistrust among Member States that is preventing further action. The political bargain of stronger conditionality, such as through contractual arrangements, could improve the situation. Increased trust will also be an important condition for tackling long-reaching economic governance reforms such as the creation of a Fiscal Capacity, which could take the form of a macroeconomic shock insurance. Such a Fiscal Capacity could make a real difference in providing the necessary funding to maintain productive public investment, even in times of deep recessions. The proposals presented do not attempt to be conclusive, but shall rather be an input for a wider debate on how to increase growth and employment in Europe. The paper draws heavily on the discussion of a Workshop on Growth and Investment, which the European Policy Centre (EPC) hosted on 10 December 2014 under Chatham-House Rule, with a group of economists and representatives from the European institutions.

The nuclear safety framework in the European Union after Fukushima. Egmont Paper No. 73, December 2014

Summary. On 11 March 2011, a devastating earthquake struck Japan and caused a major nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The disaster confirmed that nuclear reactors must be protected even against accidents that have been assessed as highly unlikely. It also revealed a well-known catalogue of problems: faulty design, insufficient back-up systems, human error, inadequate contingency plans, and poor communications. The catastrophe triggered the rapid launch of a major re-examination of nuclear reactor security in Europe. It also stopped in its tracks what had appeared to be a ‘nuclear renaissance’, both in Europe and globally, especially in the emerging countries. Under the accumulated pressure of rising demand and climate warming, many new nuclear projects had been proposed. Since 2011 there has been more ambivalence, especially in Europe. Some Member States have even decided to abandon the nuclear sector altogether. This Egmont Paper aims to examine the reactions of the EU regarding nuclear safety since 2011. Firstly, a general description of the nuclear sector in Europe is provided. The nuclear production of electricity currently employs around 500,000 people, including those working in the supply chain. It generates approximately €70 billion per year. It provides roughly 30% of the electricity consumed in the EU. At the end of 2013, there were 131 nuclear power reactors active in the EU, located in 14 countries. Four new reactors are under construction in France, Slovakia and Finland. Secondly, this paper will present the Euratom legal framework regarding nuclear safety. The European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom) Treaty was signed in 1957, and somewhat obscured by the European Economic Community (EEC) Treaty. It was a more classical treaty, establishing institutions with limited powers. Its development remained relatively modest until the Chernobyl catastrophe, which provoked many initiatives. The most important was the final adoption of the Nuclear Safety Directive 2009/71. Thirdly, the general symbiosis between Euratom and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be explained. Fourthly, the paper analyses the initiatives taken by the EU in the wake of the Fukushima catastrophe. These initiatives are centred around the famous ‘stress tests’. Fifthly, the most important legal change brought about by this event was the revision of Directive 2009/71. Directive 2014/87 has been adopted quite rapidly, and has deepened in various ways the role of the EU in nuclear safety. It has reinforced the role and effective independence of the national regulatory authorities. It has enhanced transparency on nuclear safety matters. It has strengthened principles, and introduced new general nuclear safety objectives and requirements, addressing specific technical issues across the entire life cycle of nuclear installations, and in particular, nuclear power plants. It has extended monitoring and the exchange of experiences by establishing a European system of peer reviews. Finally, it has established a mechanism for developing EU-wide harmonized nuclear safety guidelines. In spite of these various improvements, Directive 2014/87 Euratom still reflects the ambiguity of the Euratom system in general, and especially in the field of nuclear safety. The use of nuclear energy remains controversial among Member States. Some of them remain adamantly in favour, others against or ambivalent. The intervention of the EAEC institutions remains sensitive. The use of the traditional Community method remains limited. The peer review method remains a very peculiar mechanism that deserves more attention.