Second-order quantile methods for experts and combinatorial games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles.

News via Voldemort: Parody accounts in topical discussions on Twitter

Parody accounts are prevalent on Twitter, offering irreverent interpretations of public figures, fictional characters and more. These accounts post comments framed within the context of their fictional universes or stereotypes of their subjects, responding in-character to topical events. This article positions parody accounts as a ritualised social media practice, an extension of fan practices and irreverent Internet culture. By providing a typology of parody accounts and analysing the topicality of selected parody accounts’ tweets, the research examines how these accounts contribute to topical discussions. In-character framing of topical comments allows parody accounts to offer original interpretations of breaking news that receive more attention than their other tweets. The presence and longevity of parody accounts underline the importance of humour on social media, including within news and topical coverage.

First Literacies: Art, Creativity, Play, Constructive Meaning-Making

In this chapter art and play are considered children’s ‘first languages’, and therefore are placed at the centre of a curriculum for young children. Through art and play, children represent thought and action, which underpins their later understanding of the ‘second languages’ of reading, writing and numbering. Key issues such as image-making, graphic action, imagination, narrative, empathetic engagement and internalised thought are analysed as evidence of children’s construction of knowledge through art and play. Symbol making is the essence of being human. In children’s art and play, their symbol use captures their sensory modes in emotional and embodied ways, as children know their worlds and their place. The chapter addresses how children’s creation, manipulation and meaning making through engaged interaction with art materials are precursors to learning to read and write and, as first languages, should not be discarded nor replaced. The notion of creativity is explored in relation to pedagogical approaches. In a climate of testing regimes that emphasise ‘academic’ achievements, teachers are encouraged to not lose sight of imagination, pretence, constructive meaning making, holistic teaching and being a co-player and co-artist.

Risk factors associated with an outbreak of dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) appears to be emerging in Hanoi in recent years. A case-control study was performed to investigate risk factors for the development of DF/DHF in Hanoi. A total of 73 patients with DF/DHF and 73 control patients were included in the study. The risk factor analysis indicated that living in rented housing, living near uncovered sewers, and living in a house discharging sewage directly into to ponds were all significantly associated with DF/DHF. People living in rented houses were 2·2 times more at risk of DF/DHF than those living in their own homes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1–4·6]. People living in an unhygienic house, or in a house discharging sewage directly to the ponds were 3·4 times and 4·3 times, respectively, more likely to be associated with DF/DHF (aOR 3·4, 95% CI 1–11·7; aOR 4·3, 95% CI 1·1–16·9). These results contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of dengue transmission in Hanoi, which is needed to implement dengue prevention and control programmes effectively and efficiently.

A ‘Big Data’ Approach to Mapping the Australian Twittersphere

This chapter discusses the methodological aspects and empirical findings of a large-scale, funded project investigating public communication through social media in Australia. The project concentrates on Twitter, but we approach it as representative of broader current trends toward the integration of large datasets and computational methods into media and communication studies in general, and social media scholarship in particular. The research discussed in this chapter aims to empirically describe networks of affiliation and interest in the Australian Twittersphere, while reflecting on the methodological implications and imperatives of ‘big data’ in the humanities. Using custom network crawling technology, we have conducted a snowball crawl of Twitter accounts operated by Australian users to identify more than one million users and their follower/followee relationships, and have mapped their interconnections. In itself, the map provides an overview of the major clusters of densely interlinked users, largely centred on shared topics of interest (from politics through arts to sport) and/or sociodemographic factors (geographic origins, age groups). Our map of the Twittersphere is the first of its kind for the Australian part of the global Twitter network, and also provides a first independent and scholarly estimation of the size of the total Australian Twitter population. In combination with our investigation of participation patterns in specific thematic hashtags, the map also enables us to examine which areas of the underlying follower/followee network are activated in the discussion of specific current topics – allowing new insights into the extent to which particular topics and issues are of interest to specialised niches or to the Australian public more broadly. Specifically, we examine the Twittersphere footprint of dedicated political discussion, under the #auspol hashtag, and compare it with the heightened, broader interest in Australian politics during election campaigns, using #ausvotes; we explore the different patterns of Twitter activity across the map for major television events (the popular competitive cooking show #masterchef, the British #royalwedding, and the annual #stateoforigin Rugby League sporting contest); and we investigate the circulation of links to the articles published by a number of major Australian news organisations across the network. Such analysis, which combines the ‘big data’-informed map and a close reading of individual communicative phenomena, makes it possible to trace the dynamic formation and dissolution of issue publics against the backdrop of longer-term network connections, and the circulation of information across these follower/followee links. Such research sheds light on the communicative dynamics of Twitter as a space for mediated social interaction. Our work demonstrates the possibilities inherent in the current ‘computational turn’ (Berry, 2010) in the digital humanities, as well as adding to the development and critical examination of methodologies for dealing with ‘big data’ (boyd and Crawford, 2011). Out tools and methods for doing Twitter research, released under Creative Commons licences through our project Website, provide the basis for replicable and verifiable digital humanities research on the processes of public communication which take place through this important new social network.

The Arab Spring on Twitter: Language Communities in #egypt and #libya

Building on hashtag datasets gathered since January 2011, this paper will compare patterns of Twitter usage during the popular revolution in Egypt and the civil war in Libya. Using custom-made tools for processing ‘big data’ (boyd & Crawford, 2011), we will examine the volume of tweets sent by English-, Arabic-, and mixed-language Twitter users over time, and examine the networks of interaction (variously through @replying, retweeting, or both) between these groups as they developed and shifted over the course of these uprisings. Examining @reply and retweet traffic, we will identify general patterns of information flow between the English- and Arabic-speaking sides of the Twittersphere, and highlight the roles played by key boundary riders connecting both language spheres. Further, we will examine the URLs shared in these hashtags by Twitter participants, to identify the most prominent overall information sources, examine differences in the information diet experienced by English- and Arabic-language users, and investigate whether there are any online sources whose URLs are transcending language boundaries more frequently than others.

Drug administration guides in dysphagia

Aim: The aim of this evaluation was to evaluate the use of Individualised Medication Administration Guides (IMAGs) for patients with dysphagia on one stroke ward over a 6month period. Background: Patients with dysphagia (PWD) are more likely to suffer an administration error than patients without swallowing difficulties. To both standardise and improve medicines administration to patients with dysphagia I-MAGs were introduced on one stroke ward over a 6 month period. Methods: A software package supported with data on current national guidelines on the administration of medicines to PWD was designed by a specialised pharmacist in dysphagia to enable him to create individualised medication administration guides for patients with dysphagia which stated how each medicine should be optimally prepared and administered. On completion of the pilot service a questionnaire was given to all nurses, pharmacist and speech and language therapists who had experienced the I-MAGs. All the professionals received the same questionnaire but questions relevant only to their practice were added to the nurse’s questionnaire. Results: Of 26 Healthcare professionals (HCPs) approached, 19 returned completed questionnaires. Higher variability was found in the 13 responses from the nurse respondents than in the ones from the 3 pharmacist and the 3 SALTs. 8 (61%) of the nurses felt more confident in their practice when I-MAGs were in place. 10 (76%) of the nurses admitted that the guides could sometimes increase the time of the administration, but saw that it made practice safer. All the pharmacists considered the recommendations in the guides useful and all the respondents with the exception of one nurse (12:13) would like this service to continue. Conclusion: I-MAGs were well received on the ward and they support individualised care for patients with dysphagia. But the guides needed additional pharmacist input and greater nursing time. Research to determine the cost effectiveness of I-MAGs is needed.

Implementation of individualised medication administration guides for patients with dysphagia: Results from a pilot controlled trial

Introduction Patients with dysphagia (PWDs) have been shown to be four times more likely to suffer medication administration errors (MAEs).1 2 Individualised medication administration guides (I-MAGs) which outline how each formulation should be administered, have been developed to standardise medication administration by nurses on the ward and reduce the likelihood of errors. This pilot study aimed to determine the recruitment rates, estimate effect on errors and develop the intervention to design a future full scale randomised controlled trial to determine the costs and effects of I-MAG implementation. Ethical approval was granted by local ethics committee. Method Software was developed to enable I-MAG production (based on current best practice)3 4 for all PWDs on two care of the older person wards admitted during a six month period from January to July 2011. I-MAGs were attached to the medication administration record charts to be utilised by nurses when administering medicines. Staff training was provided for all staff on the intervention wards. Two care of the older person wards in the same hospital were used for control purposes. All patients with dysphagia were recruited for follow up purposes at discharge. Four ward rounds at each intervention and control ward were observed pre and post I-MAG implementation to determine the level of medication administration errors. NHS ethical approval for the study was obtained. Results 164 I-MAGs were provided for 75 patients with dysphagia (PWDs) in the two intervention wards. At discharge, 23 patients in the intervention wards and 7 patients in the control wards were approached for recruitment of which 17 (74%) & 5 (71.5%) respectively consented. Discussion Recruitment rates were low on discharge due to the dysphagia remitting during hospitalisation. The introduction of the I-MAG demonstrated no effect on the quality of administration on the intervention ward and interestingly practice improved on the control ward. The observation of medication rounds at least one month post I-MAG removal may have identified a reversal to normal practice and ideally observations should have been undertaken with I-MAGs in place. Identification of the reason for the improvement in the control ward is warranted.

Initial design and physical characterization of a polymeric device for osmosis-driven delayed burst delivery of vaccines

Achieving the combination of delayed and immediate release of a vaccine from a delivery device without applying external triggers remains elusive in implementing single administration vaccination strategies. Here a means of vaccine delivery is presented, which exploits osmosis to trigger delayed burst release of an active compound. Poly(-caprolactone) capsules of 2 mm diameter were prepared by dip-coating, and their burst pressure and release characteristics were evaluated. Burst pressures (in bar) increased with wall thickness (t in mm) following Pburst = 131.t + 3.4 (R2 = 0.93). Upon immersion in PBS, glucose solution-filled capsules burst after 8.7 ± 2.9 days. Copolymers of hydrophobic  -caprolactone and hydrophilic polyethylene glycol were synthesized and their physico-chemical properties were assessed. With increasing hydrophilic content, the copolymer capsules showed increased water uptake rates and maximum weight increase, while the burst release was earlier: 5.6 ± 2.0 days and 1.9 ± 0.2 days for 5 and 10 wt% polyethylene glycol, respectively. The presented approach enables the reproducible preparation of capsules with high versatility in materials and properties, while these vaccine delivery vehicles can be prepared separately from, and independently of the active compound.

Encouraging Empathy through Picture Books about Migration

Australia has become one of the most highly multilingual and multicultural societies in the world today with people descending from 270 ancestries, who speak more than 260 languages (Commonwealth of Australia, 2011). Immigration is something that children encounter in their daily lives either through personal experience or through witnessing the lives of migrants at school, in the community, or through popular media, including children’s literature. Schools are frequently the initial interface for individuals who resettle in Australia and they ‘play a significant role in establishing meaningful connections to Australian society and a sense of belonging in Australia’ (Uptin, Wright, & Harwood, 2013, p. 1). Children's literature about cultural and ethnic diversity explores the impacts of migration and related issues creating ‘imaginary realms’ (Dudek & Ommundsen, 2007). These fictional interpretations of the migrant experience or the experience of migration are supported by distinctive “real life” cultural experiences. Picture books furnish teachers and students with an accessible means to investigate these complex issues through sensitive discussions. This chapter investigates how picture books about migration help deepen children’s perceptive understanding of migrants’ plights, and thereby nurture tolerance and empathy.

Food futures: Three provocations to challenge HCI interventions

Our contemporary concerns about food range from food security to agricultural sustainability to getting dinner on the table for family and friends. This book investigates food issues as they intersect with participatory Internet culture--blogs, wikis, online photo- and video-sharing platforms, and social networks in efforts to bring about a healthy, socially inclusive, and sustainable food future. Focusing on our urban environments provisioned with digital and network capacities, and drawing on such "bottom-up" sociotechnical trends as DIY and open source, the chapters describe engagements with food and technology that engender (re-)creative interactions.

Design and evaluation of intentionally enriched awareness

In this chapter we introduce and explore the notion of “intentionally enriched awareness”. Intentional enrichment refers to the process of actively engaging users in the awareness process by enabling them to express intentions. We initially look at the phenomenon if sharing intentional information in related collaborative systems. We then explore the concept of intentional enrichment through designing and evaluating the AnyBiff system which allows users to freely create, share and use a variety of biff applications. Biffs are simple representation of pre-defined activities. Users can select biffs to indicate that they are engaged in an activity. We summarise the results of a trial which allowed us to gain insights into the potential of the AnyBiff prototype and the underlying biff concept to implement intentionally enriched awareness. Our findings show that intentional disclosure mechanisms in the form of biffs were successfully used in a variety of contexts. Users actively engaged in the design of a large variety of biffs and explored many different uses of the concept. The study revealed a whole host of issues with regard to intentionally enriched awareness which give valuable insight into the conception and design of future applications in this area.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Novel loci affecting iron homeostasis and their effects in individuals at risk for hemochromatosis

Variation in body iron is associated with or causes diseases, including anaemia and iron overload. Here, we analyse genetic association data on biochemical markers of iron status from 11 European-population studies, with replication in eight additional cohorts (total up to 48,972 subjects). We find 11 genome-wide-significant (P<5 × 10−8) loci, some including known iron-related genes (​HFE, ​SLC40A1, ​TF, ​TFR2, ​TFRC, ​TMPRSS6) and others novel (​ABO, ​ARNTL, ​FADS2, ​NAT2, ​TEX14). SNPs at ​ARNTL, ​TF, and ​TFR2 affect iron markers in ​HFE C282Y homozygotes at risk for hemochromatosis. There is substantial overlap between our iron loci and loci affecting erythrocyte and lipid phenotypes. These results will facilitate investigation of the roles of iron in disease.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.