Studio, simulazione e verifica sperimentale di tecniche di controllo per convertitori multilivello modulari

L’evoluzione dei componenti elettronici di potenza ed il conseguente sviluppo dei convertitori statici dell’energia elettrica hanno consentito di ottenere un’elevata efficienza energetica, sia nell’ambito degli azionamenti elettrici, sia nell’ambito della trasmissione e distribuzione dell’energia elettrica. L’efficienza energetica è una questione molto importante nell’attuale contesto storico, in quanto si sta facendo fronte ad una elevatissima richiesta di energia, sfruttando prevalentemente fonti di energia non rinnovabili. L’introduzione dei convertitori statici ha reso possibile un notevolissimo incremento dello sfruttamento delle fonti di energia rinnovabili: si pensi ad esempio agli inverter per impianti fotovoltaici o ai convertitori back to back per applicazioni eoliche. All’aumentare della potenza di un convertitore aumenta la sua tensione di esercizio: le limitazioni della tensione sopportabile dagli IGBT, che sono i componenti elettronici di potenza di più largo impiego nei convertitori statici, rendono necessarie modifiche strutturali per i convertitori nei casi in cui la tensione superi determinati valori. Tipicamente in media ed alta tensione si impiegano strutture multilivello. Esistono più tipi di configurazioni multilivello: nel presente lavoro è stato fatto un confronto tra le varie strutture esistenti e sono state valutate le possibilità offerte dall’architettura innovativa Modular Multilevel Converter, nota come MMC. Attualmente le strutture più diffuse sono la Diode Clamped e la Cascaded. La prima non è modulare, in quanto richiede un’apposita progettazione in relazione al numero di livelli di tensione. La seconda è modulare, ma richiede alimentazioni separate e indipendenti per ogni modulo. La struttura MMC è modulare e necessita di un’unica alimentazione per il bus DC, ma la presenza dei condensatori richiede particolare attenzione in fase di progettazione della tecnica di controllo, analogamente al caso del Diode Clamped. Un esempio di possibile utilizzo del convertitore MMC riguarda le trasmissioni HVDC, alle quali si sta dedicando un crescente interesse negli ultimi anni.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Tecniche automatiche di mapping e localizzazione in ambienti indoor

Il mapping di grandezze fisiche risulta estremamente importante, essendo in grado di fornire un adeguato supporto per la localizzazione e il monitoraggio di parametri ambientali sensibili. Nel caso indoor, in assenza di un sistema di localizzazione di riferimento analogo al GPS per il caso outdoor, sfruttando appieno le potenzialità della sensoristica a bordo degli smartphone, si è fatto progressivamente strada il mapping di grandezze fisiche quali, ad esempio, il segnale Wi-Fi e il campo magnetico terrestre. In questo caso il mapping, senza richiedere alcuna infrastruttura e coadiuvato dall'utilizzo di dispositivi portatili largamente diffusi ad uso quotidiano, rappresenta una soluzione relativamente recente ridefinibile come Mobile Crowd Sensing. Il MCS rappresenta un nuovo paradigma di servizio, volto a sfruttare l'interconnettività tra dispositivi portatili per effettuare misurazioni di caratteristiche ambientali in maniera automatizzata, aggregandole in un sistema cloud usufruibile ad una vasta comunità. Tuttavia , il considerevole flusso di dati generato, la variabilità temporale delle grandezze di interesse e il rumore insito nelle misurazioni costituiscono problematiche fondamentali per l'utilizzo e la gestione delle misurazioni effettuate. Per tali motivi l'attività di tesi ha previsto i seguenti obiettivi: (i) fornire una panoramica delle principali tecniche e tecnologie di localizzazione volta a motivare l'importanza del mapping di grandezze fisiche ambientali; (ii) individuazione di grandezze fisiche appetibili per la creazione di mappe affidabili e realizzabili nei contesti applicativi più disparati, sfruttando risorse già presenti nell'ambiente; (iii) sviluppo di un algoritmo statistico in grado di fornire una stima accurata dell'andamento spaziale della grandezza di interesse attraverso un numero limitato di misurazioni, mantenendo la compatibilità con processi MCS e una bassa complessità computazionale. L’algoritmo sviluppato è stato validato attraverso simulazioni e misurazioni svolte in ambienti reali. In particolare, prove sperimentali sono state effettuate nell’arena Vicon nei laboratori DEI dell’Università di Bologna, sede Cesena, concepita dal gruppo di ricerca Casy.

Knowing the future: partial foreknowledge effects on the programming of prosaccades and antisaccades

Foreknowledge about the demands of an upcoming trial may be exploited to optimize behavioural responses. In the current study we systematically investigated the benefits of partial foreknowledge--that is, when some but not all aspects of a future trial are known in advance. For this we used an ocular motor paradigm with horizontal prosaccades and antisaccades. Predictable sequences were used to create three partial foreknowledge conditions: one with foreknowledge about the stimulus location only, one with foreknowledge about the task set only, and one with foreknowledge about the direction of the required response only. These were contrasted with a condition of no-foreknowledge and a condition of complete foreknowledge about all three parameters. The results showed that the three types of foreknowledge affected saccadic efficiency differently. While foreknowledge about stimulus-location had no effect on efficiency, task foreknowledge had some effect and response-foreknowledge was as effective as complete foreknowledge. Foreknowledge effects on switch costs followed a similar pattern in general, but were not specific for switching of the trial attribute for which foreknowledge was available. We conclude that partial foreknowledge has a differential effect on efficiency, most consistent with preparatory activation of a motor schema in advance of the stimulus, with consequent benefits for both switched and repeated trials.

Executive functions of children born very preterm--deficit or delay?

This cross-sectional study examined the performance of children born very preterm and/or at very low birth weight (VPT/VLBW) and same-aged term-born controls in three core executive functions: inhibition, working memory, and shifting. Children were divided into two age groups according to the median (young, 8.00-9.86 years; old, 9.87-12.99 years). The aims of the study were to investigate whether (a) VPT/VLBW children of both age groups performed poorer than controls (deficit hypothesis) or caught up with increasing age (delay hypothesis) and (b) whether VPT/VLBW children displayed a similar pattern of performance increase in executive functions with advancing age compared with the controls. Fifty-six VPT/VLBW children born in the cohort of 1998-2003 and 41 healthy-term-born controls were recruited. All children completed tests of inhibition (Color-Word Interference Task, Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS)), working memory (Digit Span Backwards, HAWIK-IV), and shifting (Trail Making Test, Number-Letter Sequencing, D-KEFS). Results revealed that young VPT/VLBW children performed significantly poorer than the young controls in inhibition, working memory, and shifting, whereas old VPT/VLBW children performed similar to the old controls across all three executive functions. Furthermore, the frequencies of impairment in inhibition, working memory and shifting were higher in the young VPT/VLBW group compared with the young control group, whereas frequencies of impairment were equal in the old groups. In both VPT/VLBW children and controls, the highest increase in executive performance across the ages of 8 to 12 years was observed in shifting, followed by working memory, and inhibition.

The Two-Interval Line-Segment Problem

In this paper, the NPMLE in the one-dimensional line segment problem is defined and studied, where line segments on the real line through two non-overlapping intervals are observed. The self-consistency equations for the NPMLE are defined and a quick algorithm for solving them is provided. Supnorm weak convergence to a Gaussian process and efficiency of the NPMLE is proved. The problem has a strong geological application in the study of the lifespan of species.

Peri-implant inflammation defined by the implant-abutment interface

An implant-abutment interface at the alveolar bone crest is associated with sustained peri-implant inflammation; however, whether magnitude of inflammation is proportionally dependent upon interface position remains unknown. This study compared the distribution and density of inflammatory cells surrounding implants with a supracrestal, crestal, or subcrestal implant-abutment interface. All implants developed a similar pattern of peri-implant inflammation: neutrophilic polymorphonuclear leukocytes (neutrophils) maximally accumulated at or immediately coronal to the interface. However, peri-implant neutrophil accrual increased progressively as the implant-abutment interface depth increased, i.e., subcrestal interfaces promoted a significantly greater maximum density of neutrophils than did supracrestal interfaces (10,512 +/- 691 vs. 2398 +/- 1077 neutrophils/mm(2)). Moreover, inflammatory cell accumulation below the original bone crest was significantly correlated with bone loss. Thus, the implant-abutment interface dictates the intensity and location of peri-implant inflammatory cell accumulation, a potential contributing component in the extent of implant-associated alveolar bone loss.

MODELING FUNCTIONAL DATA WITH SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS SHAPE CHARACTERISTICS

We propose a novel class of models for functional data exhibiting skewness or other shape characteristics that vary with spatial or temporal location. We use copulas so that the marginal distributions and the dependence structure can be modeled independently. Dependence is modeled with a Gaussian or t-copula, so that there is an underlying latent Gaussian process. We model the marginal distributions using the skew t family. The mean, variance, and shape parameters are modeled nonparametrically as functions of location. A computationally tractable inferential framework for estimating heterogeneous asymmetric or heavy-tailed marginal distributions is introduced. This framework provides a new set of tools for increasingly complex data collected in medical and public health studies. Our methods were motivated by and are illustrated with a state-of-the-art study of neuronal tracts in multiple sclerosis patients and healthy controls. Using the tools we have developed, we were able to find those locations along the tract most affected by the disease. However, our methods are general and highly relevant to many functional data sets. In addition to the application to one-dimensional tract profiles illustrated here, higher-dimensional extensions of the methodology could have direct applications to other biological data including functional and structural MRI.

Mechanisms of intrinsic beating variability in cardiac cell cultures and model pacemaker networks

Heart rate variability (HRV) exhibits fluctuations characterized by a power law behavior of its power spectrum. The interpretation of this nonlinear HRV behavior, resulting from interactions between extracardiac regulatory mechanisms, could be clinically useful. However, the involvement of intrinsic variations of pacemaker rate in HRV has scarcely been investigated. We examined beating variability in spontaneously active incubating cultures of neonatal rat ventricular myocytes using microelectrode arrays. In networks of mathematical model pacemaker cells, we evaluated the variability induced by the stochastic gating of transmembrane currents and of calcium release channels and by the dynamic turnover of ion channels. In the cultures, spontaneous activity originated from a mobile focus. Both the beat-to-beat movement of the focus and beat rate variability exhibited a power law behavior. In the model networks, stochastic fluctuations in transmembrane currents and stochastic gating of calcium release channels did not reproduce the spatiotemporal patterns observed in vitro. In contrast, long-term correlations produced by the turnover of ion channels induced variability patterns with a power law behavior similar to those observed experimentally. Therefore, phenomena leading to long-term correlated variations in pacemaker cellular function may, in conjunction with extracardiac regulatory mechanisms, contribute to the nonlinear characteristics of HRV.

Experimental arthritis: effect on growth parameters and total skeletal calcium

Aim of the study was to investigate the possible mechanisms leading to stunted growth and osteoporosis in experimental arthritis. Fourty-two female rats of 7-8 weeks of age were randomly assigned to three groups of 14 animals each: (a) controls; (b) adjuvant-inoculated (AA); and (c) adjuvant-inoculated rats receiving 10 mg cyclosporin A (CsA) orally for 30 days. Biological parameters studied were: hindpaw swelling; vertebral length progression expressed as Delta increments between days 1 and 30 as a parameter of skeletal growth, and estimation of total skeletal mineral content by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (n=10 each group) on day 30. Endocrine parameters measured were pulsatile release of growth hormone (rGH) on day 30 following jugular cannulation and measurement of insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1) in pooled plasma from rGH profiles. Results can be summarized as follows: Untreated AA rats exhibited local signs of inflammation in comparison with controls (hindpaw diameter 8.1-8.9 mm vs. 5.3-5.6 mm in controls). Treatment with CsA normalized this parameter (4.9-5.6 mm). Vertebral growth was significantly retarded in AA rats in comparison with controls (214+/-32 vs. 473+/-33 microm; p<0.001). Administration of CsA normalized vertebral size increment with a clear tendency to overgrowth (523+/-43 microm, n.s.). There was also a marked reduction in total skeletal mineral content in diseased (AA) rats as compared to controls (5.8+/-0.1 vs. 7.5+/-0.1g [OH-apatite]; p<0.001), and a moderate but significant increment above controls in the group receiving CsA (8.0+/-0.1 vs. 7.5+/-0.1g [OH-appatite]; p<0.04). Integrated rGH profiles exhibited a significant fall in arthritic rats and were completely restored to normal under CsA treatment. A trend toward higher rGH values was observed in the latter group (2908+/-554 in AA vs. 8317+/-1492 ng/ml/240 min in controls; p<0.001, and 10940+/-222 ng/ml/240 min, n.s. in the CsA group). There was a good correlation between skeletal growth and rGH pulsatility (r=0.81; p<0.001). IGF-1 followed a similar pattern (630+/-44 in AA vs. 752+/-30 ng/ml in controls; p<0.04, and 769+/-59 ng/ml in the CsA group, n.s. vs. controls). Thus, a clear tendency to skeletal overgrowth following treatment was observed in agreement with the hormonal data. It can therefore be concluded that, in experimental arthritis, attenuated GH-spiking and reduced circulating IGF-1 appear to be causally related to growth retardation, probably mimicking signs and symptoms observed in juvenile arthritis. Therapy with CsA is followed by normalization of hormonal and biological parameters accompanied by a catch up phenomenon in skeletal growth which is also observed clinically in juvenile arthritis. Generalized osteopenia is a prominent feature seemingly connected with the growth abnormalities as they parallel each other during the evolution of the disease and respond equally to therapy.

CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?

Following the rapid growth of China's economy, energy consumption, especially electricity consumption of China, has made a huge increase in the past 30 years. Since China has been using coal as the major energy source to produce electricity during these years, environmental problems have become more and more serious. The research question for this paper is: "Can China use alternative energies instead of coal to produce more electricity in 2030?" Hydro power, nuclear power, natural gas, wind power and solar power are considered as the possible and most popular alternative energies for the current situation of China. To answer the research question above, there are two things to know: How much is the total electricity consumption in China by 2030? And how much electricity can the alternative energies provide in China by 2030? For a more reliable forecast, an econometric model using the Ordinary Least Squares Method is established on this paper to predict the total electricity consumption by 2030. The predicted electricity coming from alternative energy sources by 2030 in China can be calculated from the existing literature. The research results of this paper are analyzed under a reference scenario and a max tech scenario. In the reference scenario, the combination of the alternative energies can provide 47.71% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. In the max tech scenario, it provides 57.96% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. These results are important not only because they indicate the government's long term goal is reachable, but also implies that the natural environment of China could have an inspiring future.