On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Selective entrainment of sediment graded by size and density under waves

The influence of near-bed sorting processes on heavy mineral content in suspension is discussed. Sediment concentrations above a rippled bed of mixed quartz and heavy mineral sand were measured under regular nonbreaking waves in the laboratory. Using the traditional gradient diffusion process, settling velocity would be expected to strongly affect sediment distribution. This was not observed during present trials. In fact, the vertical gradients of time-averaged suspension concentrations were found to be similar for the light and heavy minerals, despite their different settling velocities. This behavior implies a convective rather than diffusive distribution mechanism. Between the nonmoving bed and the lowest suspension sampling point, fight and heavy mineral concentration differs by two orders of magnitude. This discrimination against the heavy minerals in the pickup process is due largely to selective entrainment at the ripple face. Bed-form dynamics and the nature of quartz suspension profiles are found to be little affected by the trialed proportion of overall heavy minerals in the bed (3.8-22.1%).

Five generations of peace operations: from the "thin blue line" to "painting a country blue"

This article combines both international practice and analytical contributions into a systematic and synthetic presentation of the evolution of peace operations from their modern inception in 1948 to the present. It seeks to serve a didactic purpose in proposing a basic structure for Brazilian scholars' burgeoning debate on peace operations and intervention, rather than a definitive characterization of blue helmet practice. Peace operations' progression is traced through five analytical "generations," each adding a crucial factor distinguishing it from its predecessors. Each generation is placed in relation to changes in the nature of conflict and in the interpretation of the foundational principles of peace operations, and links to broader theoretical issues in International Relations are made explicit at each stage.

The decentralized social networking systems towards mobilizing actions of citizenship and solidarity against cancer

The goal of the present study is mapping the nature of possible contributions of participatory online platforms in citizen actions that may contribute in the fight against cancer and its associated consequences. These platforms are usually associated with entertainment: in that sense, we intent to test their validity in other domains such as health, as well as contribute to an expanded perception of their potential by their users. The research is based on the analysis of online solidarity networks, namely the ones residing on Facebook, Orkut and the blogosphere, that citizens have been gradually resorting to. The research is also based on the development of newer and more efficient solutions that provide the individual (directly or indirectly affected by issues of oncology) with the means to overcome feelings of impotence and fatality. In this article, we aim at summarizing the processes of usage of these decentralized, freer participatory platforms by citizens and institutions, while attempting to unravel existing hype and stigma; we also provide a first survey of the importance and the role of institutions in this kind of endeavor; lastly, we present a prototype, developed in the context of the present study, that is specifically dedicated to addressing oncology through social media. This prototype is already available online at www.talkingaboutcancer.org, however, still under development and testing. The main objective of this platform is to allow every citizen to freely build their network of contacts and information, according to their own individual and/ or collective needs and desires.

Residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts in Guimarães (Portugal): a cluster analysis

In this investigation, a cluster analysis was used to separate Guimara˜es (Portugal) residents into clusters according to their perceptions of the impacts of tourism development. This approach is uncommonly applied to Portugal data and is even rarer for world heritage sites. The world heritage designation is believed to make an area more attractive to tourists. The clustering procedure analysed 400 data observations from a Guimara˜es resident survey and revealed the existence of three clusters: the Sceptics, the Moderately Optimistic and the Enthusiasts. The results were consistent with the empirical literature’s results, with the emergent nature of the destination found to be relevant. The fact that tourism is relatively recent in this destination has its major reflex in the devaluation by most of the residents of the negative impacts of tourism development.

Participatory Online Platforms and the Construction of Citizen’s Autonomy in Health Issues

The goal of the present study is mapping the nature of possible contributions of participatory online platforms in citizen actions that may contribute in the fight against cancer and its associated consequences. The research is based on the analysis of online solidarity networks, namely the ones residing on Facebook and the blogosphere, that citizens have been gradually resorting to. The research is also based on the development of newer and more efficient solutions that provide the individual (directly or indirectly affected by issues of oncology) with the means to overcome feelings of impotence and fatality. In this chapter, the authors summarize the processes of usage of these decentralized, freer participatory platforms by citizens and institutions, while attempting to unravel existing hype and stigma; the authors also provide a first survey of the importance and the role of institutions in this kind of endeavor; lastly, they present a prototype, developed in the context of the present study that is specifically dedicated to addressing oncology through social media.

The strategic management of creation process and of change: a theoretical contribute from the perspective of tourism

The entrepreneurship and innovation have been gradually gaining ground in the academic community as a field of study. However, the interpretations surrounding fragmented, without a univocal definition. In last decades, tourism has received greater attention from researchers in various sciences, varying only by the different emphases considered: economic, social, cultural and environmental. As other emerging sectors in a modern economy, tourism is a dynamic and ever-changing industry. The study has as purpose to provide a better understanding regarding the essence of entrepreneurship: theoretical and practical implications from the perspective of tourism. Regarding the methodology used here, this is a conceptual paper with a literature review that brings together the major components of entrepreneurship and its implications tourist perspective and conceptual model of the dynamic nature of the Triggering Process and innovation (e.g. iTravey, Interactive Stores, Tourist Transportable Tower).

How does gender affect visiting a world heritage site?: the case study of Guimarães

To date few studies have been undertaken in Portugal dealing with the attitudes, motivations, and profile of tourists who visit World Heritage Sites. Also, few studies have dealt with destination image (e.g., Agapito, Mendes & Valle, 2010; Lopes, 2011). As far as it is known, none have approached the issue of gender differences in the choice of a Portuguese heritage destination. Since cultural tourism destinations need to differentiate themselves from each other, appropriate market segmentation must be based on a deep understanding of the customers’ motivations and preferences. Keeping in mind results from empirical literature (e.g., Silberberg, 1995; Beerli & Martin, 2004; Richards, 2004; Pérez, 2009; Sheng, Shen, & Chen, 2008), gender seems to be a possible approach to market segmentation, whether for Guimarães or for other cultural tourism destinations around the world. Located in the north-western region of Portugal, Guimarães is a city of strong symbolic and cultural significance, and the nomination of its historical centre as a World Heritage Site in 2001 enhanced its tourism potential. This study analyses the possible relation between gender and attitudes and motivations towards a World Heritage Site, such as Guimarães. Additionally, the empirical approach used in the study tries to capture differences in the perceived attributes of the city. Commonalities and distinctions within and between groups of tourists, by focusing on the specific characteristic of gender, were analysed. The study addressed two main questions: first, whether males and females have similar or different preferences in choosing the city as their destination; and, second, whether there are gender differences in the perception of the attributes of Guimarães. A better understanding of the gendered nature of the destination is a valuable cue for shaping products and services according to visitors’ preferences.

Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Robust temporal alignment of multimodal cardiac sequences

Given the dynamic nature of cardiac function, correct temporal alignment of pre-operative models and intraoperative images is crucial for augmented reality in cardiac image-guided interventions. As such, the current study focuses on the development of an image-based strategy for temporal alignment of multimodal cardiac imaging sequences, such as cine Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) or 3D Ultrasound (US). First, we derive a robust, modality-independent signal from the image sequences, estimated by computing the normalized crosscorrelation between each frame in the temporal sequence and the end-diastolic frame. This signal is a resembler for the left-ventricle (LV) volume curve over time, whose variation indicates di erent temporal landmarks of the cardiac cycle. We then perform the temporal alignment of these surrogate signals derived from MRI and US sequences of the same patient through Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), allowing to synchronize both sequences. The proposed framework was evaluated in 98 patients, which have undergone both 3D+t MRI and US scans. The end-systolic frame could be accurately estimated as the minimum of the image-derived surrogate signal, presenting a relative error of 1:6 1:9% and 4:0 4:2% for the MRI and US sequences, respectively, thus supporting its association with key temporal instants of the cardiac cycle. The use of DTW reduces the desynchronization of the cardiac events in MRI and US sequences, allowing to temporally align multimodal cardiac imaging sequences. Overall, a generic, fast and accurate method for temporal synchronization of MRI and US sequences of the same patient was introduced. This approach could be straightforwardly used for the correct temporal alignment of pre-operative MRI information and intra-operative US images.

THE INTERNATIONAL GROWTH OF A SOCIAL BUSINESS: A CASE STUDY

ABSTRACTIn developing countries, initiatives have often been undertaken in order to fight social and environmental problems. Since the 1990s, an increase can be seen in corporate social responsibility actions, as well as increasingly strong activities by civil society organizations. Tweenty years ago, companies and civil society organizations stood wide apart from each other, with often conflicting agendas and resistance to mutual collaboration. This reality has changed significantly. Besides the phenomenon of cross-sector partnerships, we can also observe the expansion of a particular organization type, i.e., the social business, which combines two objectives that were previously seen as incompatible: financial sustainability and the generation of social value. This article aims to discuss the factors that influence the results of a social business operating in three countries: Botswana, Brazil and Jordan. The results allow understanding the challenges involved in constructing social businesses in developing countries as well as a better understanding of the very nature of those businesses, considering the social realities where they operate.

A model of destination competitiveness/sustainability: Brazilian perspectives

This paper reviews the understanding I have gained from several years of research, and from several more years of ongoing discussions with industry leaders regarding the nature of competitiveness among tourism destinations. This understanding has been captured, in summary form, in the model of Destination Competitiveness/Sustainability (Ritchie and Crouch, 2003). This model contains seven (7) components which we have found to play a major role, from a policy perspective, in determining the competitiveness/sustainability of a tourism destination. In addition to the valuable understanding which these seven components provide from a policy perspective, the specific elements of each the major components provide a more useful/practical guidance to those who are responsible for the ongoing management of a DMO (Destination Management Organization). With this overview in mind, this paper will provide a detailed review and explanation of the model that I have developed with colleague, Dr. Geoffrey I. Crouch of Latrobe University in Melbourne, Australia. Based on previous presentations throughout the world, it has proven very helpful to both academics and practitioners who seek to understand the complex nature of tourism destination competitiveness/sustainability.

Multi-attribute classification of housing conservation status in urban regeneration actions

Urban regeneration is more and more a “universal issue” and a crucial factor in the new trends of urban planning. It is no longer only an area of study and research; it became part of new urban and housing policies. Urban regeneration involves complex decisions as a consequence of the multiple dimensions of the problems that include special technical requirements, safety concerns, socio-economic, environmental, aesthetic, and political impacts, among others. This multi-dimensional nature of urban regeneration projects and their large capital investments justify the development and use of state-of-the-art decision support methodologies to assist decision makers. This research focuses on the development of a multi-attribute approach for the evaluation of building conservation status in urban regeneration projects, thus supporting decision makers in their analysis of the problem and in the definition of strategies and priorities of intervention. The methods presented can be embedded into a Geographical Information System for visualization of results. A real-world case study was used to test the methodology, whose results are also presented.

Reasoning and proof in classroom (9th grade)

This paper is research oriented and pretends to contribute toward giving empirical evidence about how students develop their reasoning and how they achieved to a proof construction in school context. Its main theme is epistemology. It describes the way in which four students in 9th Grade explored a task related with the discovery of symmetry axes in various geometric figures. The proof constructed by students had essentially an explaining function and it was related with the symmetry axes of regular polygons. The teacher’s role in meaning negotiation of the proof and its need is described through illustrative episodes. The paper presents part of a study which purpose is to analyse the nature of mathematical proof in classroom, its role and the nature of the relationship between the construction of a proof and the social interactions. Assuming a social perspective, attention is focussed on the social construction of knowledge and on the structuring resources that shape mathematical experience. The study’s methodology has an interpretative nature. One outcome of the study discussed here is that students develop first a practical understanding with no awareness of the reasons founding mathematical statements and after a theoretical one leading them to a proof elaboration.

Interest rate exposure of Spanish banks: A nonparametric analysis

Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. One the one hand, it is found that the Spanish banking sector exhibits a remarkable degree of interest rate exposure, although the impact of interest rate changes on bank stock returns has significantly declined following the introduction of the euro. Further, a pattern of positive exposure emerges during the post-euro period. On the other hand, the results corresponding to the nonparametric model support the expansion of the conventional linear model in an attempt to gain a greater insight into the actual degree of exposure.