Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Modelling of saline intrusion in marine outfalls

Since their introduction in the 1950s, marine outfalls with diffusers have been prone to saline intrusion, a process in which seawater ingresses into the outfall. This can greatly reduce the dilution and subsequent dispersion of wastewater discharged, sometimes resulting in serious deterioration of coastal water quality. Although long aware of the difficulties posed by saline intrusion, engineers still lack satisfactory methods for its prediction and robust design methods for its alleviation. However, with recent developments in numerical methods and computer power, it has been suggested that commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software may be a useful aid in combating this phenomenon by improving understanding through synthesising likely behaviour. This document reviews current knowledge on saline intrusion and its implications and then outlines a model-scale investigation of the process undertaken at Queen's University Belfast, using both physical and CFD methods. Results are presented for a simple outfall configuration, incorporating several outlets. The features observed agree with general observations from full-scale marine outfalls, and quantify the intricate internal flow mechanisms associated with saline intrusion. The two-dimensional numerical model was found to represent saline intrusion, but in a qualitative manner, not yet adequate for design purposes. Specific areas requiring further development were identified. The ultimate aim is to provide a reliable, practical and cost effective means by which engineers can minimise saline intrusion through optimised outfall design.

Advanced monitoring of South Portugal water bodies towards WFD

The challenge on implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) fosters the development of new monitoring methods and approaches. It is now commonly accepted that the use of classical monitoring campaigns in discrete point is not sufficient to fully assess and describe a water body. Due to this the WFD promote the use of modelling techniques in surface waters to assist all phases of the process, from characterisation and establishment of reference conditions to identification of pressures and assessment of impact. The work presented in this communication is based on these principles. A classical monitoring of the water status of the main transitional water bodies of Algarve (south of Portugal) is combined with advanced in situ water profiling and hydrodynamic, water quality and ecological modelling of the systems to build a complete description of its state. This approach extends spatially and temporally the resolution of the classical point sampling. The methodology was applied during a 12 month program in Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, the Guadiana estuary and the Arade estuary. The synoptic profiling uses an YSI 6600 EDS multi-parameter system attached to a boat and a GPS receiver to produce monthly synoptic maps of the systems. This data extends the discrete point sampling with laboratory analysis performed monthly in several points of each water body. The point sampling is used to calibrate the profiling system and to include variables, such as nutrients, not measured by the sensors. A total of 1427 samplings were performed for physical and chemical parameters, chlorophyll and microbiologic contamination in the water column. This data is used to drive the hydrodynamic, transport and ecological modules of the MOHID water modelling system (www.mohid.com), enabling an integrate description of the water column.

Hydrological modelling of Maranhão and Pracana Basins, a first approach

Modelling the hydrology of hydrographic basins has shown itself as a useful tool in environment management. The hydrological models can be used for multiple purposes: estimate runoff from sequences of rainfall, access stream water quality, quantify the diffuse pollution that reaches water masses such as estuaries, rivers and lakes, etc. This study has as final objective to simulate and analyse the flow, sediment transport and water quality as a function of landuse and soil type in the basins of Maranhão and Pracana. The modelling system used is SWAT, Soil Water Assessment Tool. In this first phase of the study the hydrodynamic calibration of the model was performed using measurements of average daily flows in five stations. The model compares well with the measurements; the annual average flows are similar and the majority of the measured flow peaks coincide with the model peaks.

Hydroinformatics based decision.making integrating modelling, sampling and profiling: the Ria Formosa case

A Waste Water monitoring program aiming to help decision making is presented. The program includes traditional and inboard sensor sampling, hydrodynamic and water quality modeling and a GIS based database to help the decision making of manager authorities. The focus is in the quality of waters receiving discharges from Waste Water Treatment Plants. Data was used to feed model simulations and produce hydrodynamic, effluent dispersion and ecological results. The system was then used to run different scenarios of discharge flow, concentration and location. The results enable to access the current water quality state of the lagoon and are being used as a decision making tool by the waste water managers in the evaluation phase of the treatment plant project to decide the location and the level of treatment of the discharge.

Multiple linear and principal component regressions for modelling ecotoxicity bioassay response

The ecotoxicological response of the living organisms in an aquatic system depends on the physical, chemical and bacteriological variables, as well as the interactions between them. An important challenge to scientists is to understand the interaction and behaviour of factors involved in a multidimensional process such as the ecotoxicological response.With this aim, multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression were applied to the ecotoxicity bioassay response of Chlorella vulgaris and Vibrio fischeri in water collected at seven sites of Leça river during five monitoring campaigns (February, May, June, August and September of 2006). The river water characterization included the analysis of 22 physicochemical and 3 microbiological parameters. The model that best fitted the data was MLR, which shows: (i) a negative correlation with dissolved organic carbon, zinc and manganese, and a positive one with turbidity and arsenic, regarding C. vulgaris toxic response; (ii) a negative correlation with conductivity and turbidity and a positive one with phosphorus, hardness, iron, mercury, arsenic and faecal coliforms, concerning V. fischeri toxic response. This integrated assessment may allow the evaluation of the effect of future pollution abatement measures over the water quality of Leça River.

Modelling software quality : a multidimensional approach

Les sociétés modernes dépendent de plus en plus sur les systèmes informatiques et ainsi, il y a de plus en plus de pression sur les équipes de développement pour produire des logiciels de bonne qualité. Plusieurs compagnies utilisent des modèles de qualité, des suites de programmes qui analysent et évaluent la qualité d'autres programmes, mais la construction de modèles de qualité est difficile parce qu'il existe plusieurs questions qui n'ont pas été répondues dans la littérature. Nous avons étudié les pratiques de modélisation de la qualité auprès d'une grande entreprise et avons identifié les trois dimensions où une recherche additionnelle est désirable : Le support de la subjectivité de la qualité, les techniques pour faire le suivi de la qualité lors de l'évolution des logiciels, et la composition de la qualité entre différents niveaux d'abstraction. Concernant la subjectivité, nous avons proposé l'utilisation de modèles bayésiens parce qu'ils sont capables de traiter des données ambiguës. Nous avons appliqué nos modèles au problème de la détection des défauts de conception. Dans une étude de deux logiciels libres, nous avons trouvé que notre approche est supérieure aux techniques décrites dans l'état de l'art, qui sont basées sur des règles. Pour supporter l'évolution des logiciels, nous avons considéré que les scores produits par un modèle de qualité sont des signaux qui peuvent être analysés en utilisant des techniques d'exploration de données pour identifier des patrons d'évolution de la qualité. Nous avons étudié comment les défauts de conception apparaissent et disparaissent des logiciels. Un logiciel est typiquement conçu comme une hiérarchie de composants, mais les modèles de qualité ne tiennent pas compte de cette organisation. Dans la dernière partie de la dissertation, nous présentons un modèle de qualité à deux niveaux. Ces modèles ont trois parties: un modèle au niveau du composant, un modèle qui évalue l'importance de chacun des composants, et un autre qui évalue la qualité d'un composé en combinant la qualité de ses composants. L'approche a été testée sur la prédiction de classes à fort changement à partir de la qualité des méthodes. Nous avons trouvé que nos modèles à deux niveaux permettent une meilleure identification des classes à fort changement. Pour terminer, nous avons appliqué nos modèles à deux niveaux pour l'évaluation de la navigabilité des sites web à partir de la qualité des pages. Nos modèles étaient capables de distinguer entre des sites de très bonne qualité et des sites choisis aléatoirement. Au cours de la dissertation, nous présentons non seulement des problèmes théoriques et leurs solutions, mais nous avons également mené des expériences pour démontrer les avantages et les limitations de nos solutions. Nos résultats indiquent qu'on peut espérer améliorer l'état de l'art dans les trois dimensions présentées. En particulier, notre travail sur la composition de la qualité et la modélisation de l'importance est le premier à cibler ce problème. Nous croyons que nos modèles à deux niveaux sont un point de départ intéressant pour des travaux de recherche plus approfondis.

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

On Real-Time Monitoring And Control For Efficient Management Of Drinking Water Networks: Barcelona Case Study

Drinking water utilities in urban areas are focused on finding smart solutions facing new challenges in their real-time operation because of limited water resources, intensive energy requirements, a growing population, a costly and ageing infrastructure, increasingly stringent regulations, and increased attention towards the environmental impact of water use. Such challenges force water managers to monitor and control not only water supply and distribution, but also consumer demand. This paper presents and discusses novel methodologies and procedures towards an integrated water resource management system based on advanced ICT technologies of automation and telecommunications for largely improving the efficiency of drinking water networks (DWN) in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. In particular, the paper addresses the first results of the European project EFFINET (FP7-ICT2011-8-318556) devoted to the monitoring and control of the DWN in Barcelona (Spain). Results are split in two levels according to different management objectives: (i) the monitoring level is concerned with all the aspects involved in the observation of the current state of a system and the detection/diagnosis of abnormal situations. It is achieved through sensors and communications technology, together with mathematical models; (ii) the control level is concerned with computing the best suitable and admissible control strategies for network actuators as to optimize a given set of operational goals related to the performance of the overall system. This level covers the network control (optimal management of water and energy) and the demand management (smart metering, efficient supply). The consideration of the Barcelona DWN as the case study will allow to prove the general applicability of the proposed integrated ICT solutions and their effectiveness in the management of DWN, with considerable savings of electricity costs and reduced water loss while ensuring the high European standards of water quality to citizens.

A Gradient-Type Method For Real-Time State Estimation Of Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution networks risk exposure to malicious or accidental contamination. Several levels of responses are conceivable. One of them consists to install a sensor network to monitor the system on real time. Once a contamination has been detected, this is also important to take appropriate counter-measures. In the SMaRT-OnlineWDN project, this relies on modeling to predict both hydraulics and water quality. An online model use makes identification of the contaminant source and simulation of the contaminated area possible. The objective of this paper is to present SMaRT-OnlineWDN experience and research results for hydraulic state estimation with sampling frequency of few minutes. A least squares problem with bound constraints is formulated to adjust demand class coefficient to best fit the observed values at a given time. The criterion is a Huber function to limit the influence of outliers. A Tikhonov regularization is introduced for consideration of prior information on the parameter vector. Then the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied that use derivative information for limiting the number of iterations. Confidence intervals for the state prediction are also given. The results are presented and discussed on real networks in France and Germany.

Using chemical and physical parameters to define the quality of Pardo River water (Botucatu-SP-Brazil)

This paper aims to study the ecological system of the Pardo River, at the source and lower-order passages, which are in the Botucatu area, São Paulo State, Brazil. This study was carried out to determine water quality with some chemical-physical indicators, coliforms, and chemical species of samples taken monthly, 1995/02-1996/01, from eight sampling stations sited along the Pardo River. The results in the river monitoring are discussed based on annual averages, analysis of variance, and compared to Tukey's Studentized Range-HSD, and principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to normalize data to assess association between variables. We can conclude that the variables used are very efficient for identifying and that the dry season shows the worst water quality. These were caused by organic matter, nutrients (originate) from anthropogenic sources (spatial sources) and mainly municipal wastewater, affecting the quality and hydrochemistry of the river water, which have been differentiated and assigned to polluting sources. Meanwhile, the degree of degradation of the Pardo River is low (sewage treatment carried out by the city of Pardinho is efficient), leaving the water of the river suitable for use by the population of Botucatu, after conventional treatment (Conama, Resolucao No. 20, CONAMA, Brazilia DF, 09-23, 1986-the water of the Pardo river is classified as level 03). (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laboratory essays on solid residues from an area of sand mining activities at Analandia, São Paulo, Brazil, and implications to the water resources quality

This investigation reports the results of tests performed in a laboratory with solid waste samples from an area belonging to Sibelco Mineracao Ltd., which is located around Analandia municipality, nearly in the center of São Paulo State, Brazil. Dissolution and leaching essays were realized under different experimental conditions in four samples collected from the mining front and decantation pool, with the aim of evaluating the possibility of release of several constituents to the liquid phase.

Influence of microbiological quality of drinking water in the intestinal morphology of broilers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bacteriological quality of irrigation water from vegetable gardens in the municipalities of Araraquara, Boa Esperança do Sul and Ibitinga, SP

This work aimed to assess the bacteriological quality of water used in the irrigation of vegetable gardens in the municipalities of Araraquara, Boa Esperança do Sul and Ibitinga, São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 80 samples of water used in the irrigation of 40 vegetable gardens were analyzed, two samples coming from each vegetable garden. They were collected at the same site in different months, which resulted in two sample collection groups. The most probable number (MPN/100mL) of total coliforms, thermotolerant coliforms and enterococci was identifi ed by means of the multiple tube technique. The analysis of the fi rst group samples showed quantities of thermotolerant coliforms above the amount allowed by current law for irrigation water (CONAMA Resolution n. 357) in nine cases. The owners of those vegetable gardens were then instructed in water disinfection procedures. After the analysis of the second group samples, it was noticed that only one sample did not meet the quality standards, and it was collected at a site where no disinfection procedure had been carried out. According to the results, 77.5% of the vegetable gardens were using water whose samples meet the quality standards. After the owners were instructed with regard to disinfection procedures, that number changed to 97.5%, which confi rms the importance of controlling and supervising irrigation water quality