A ação da bancada evangélica na Câmara Municipal de Natal/RN: 2005-2008

The Evangelical Church is an institution that presents itself as a group that aims to be a mediator between society, the state and the country itself. However political practice within the churches have been somewhat taken authoritarian, manipulative, intolerant and realize this reality in the analysis of this work. While understanding that the Church as an institution has formed an opinion about what is right and wrong in their communities as a social institution can be seen in contemporary society growing religious occupation of the public sphere and in all segments of Brazilian society the presence of evangelicals. One of the challenges is the discussion of the practices of Christ when the ownership of the mandate legitimized by the vote happens, what real action is the "Christ policy"? What social contributions to retrieve people, places and cities? What is the competence to work towards promoting the other gains in health, employment, security, education? The purpose of this dissertation is to contribute to the questioning of the current logic and prevailing construction of Christian ideals in politics. Develop an investigation by reference to the absence of a study on the activity of the evangelical councilors Christmas during the period 2004 -2008, order to be able assign a value judgment based on information of projects that every evangelical councilor exercised during the 15th Legislature, occasion that the City Council received the highest representation of evangelical councilors in its history.

O comportamento eleitoral da nova classe trabalhadora no Rio Grande do Norte 2014: ideologia, avaliação de governo e voto

This thesis investigates the voting behavior of the fractions of the new working class in Rio Grande do Norte, more specifically in the cities of Natal, Mossoró and Caicó, from the presidential election of 2014. This research examined the ideology, the evaluation of government and guidance the vote of a portion of the working classes of RN voters. In Brazil, from 2003, socio-economic change has occurred perceptibly, especially in a part of the working classes who ascended socially and switched to the "C economic class." Thus, there was this period, a significant expansion of this social stratum. The expansion of the "class C" in the past decade in Brazil raised the academic debate and in the media about the emergence of a "new middle class". Neri (2008) termed the "class C" of the "new middle class" and that will be the central part of their studies. But the debate on the "new middle class" can not be simplistic to the point of considering that social mobility, the main variable income, entered this segment of the population in the middle class, because it has different specificities of the popular classes. To understand this phenomenon, the income variable was outdated, adding the importance of ownership of the means of production, control of labor power and the symbolic values in the division of social classes resulting in three fractions of the new working class: the management positions, non-heads and small fighters. In this study, using as a complement to the sociological approach (ideologies and social classes) and the performance evaluation was identified that the new working class (heads) mainly reproduced the ideological and political positioning of the middle class, resulting in the rejection of PT governments (2003-2014) and it’s social, compensatory and redistributive policies. From what has been seen, the new working class (chiefs) approaches the ideological and political behavior of the middle class that will reflect in their electoral choices and class interests. The new working class (not heads and small fighters who voted in the situation) because of its classist and ideological interests approached the Workers' Party positively evaluating the Lula-Dilma governments (2003-2014) due to the implementation of compensatory policies, and redistributive programs government turned to the popular classes. In a counterpoint, the voters of the new working class (not heads and small fighters) who voted null, reproduced the discourse of mainstream media and the middle class about the rejection of compensatory policies, redistribution and government programs of Lula-Dilma governments, and consequently they disapproved of the government Dilma and her candidacy.

PROPAGANDA ELEITORAL NA DEMOCRACIA MIDIÁTICA: A VITÓRIA DA EMOÇÃO NA ELEIÇÃO PRESIDENCIAL DE 2014 NO BRASIL

Essa pesquisa tem como objeto a comunicação política com foco na propaganda eleitoral, no contexto da democracia midiática. Partindo deste princípio, delineia-se o problema de pesquisa: estudar como a propaganda eleitoral tem se apropriado do contexto da democracia midiática para expor suas mensagens, o uso entre a razão e a emoção, a venda de sonhos ao eleitor entre outros assuntos como as críticas ao adversário e as promessas que realizam. O objetivo da pesquisa é destacar os tipos de conteúdos elaborados para serem transmitidos aos eleitores que assistem ao horário eleitoral gratuito, analisar os argumentos, a qualidade e o teor de tais veiculações, assim como destacar as distinções entre eles, avaliando assim sua efetividade, suas principais características, o que os diferenciava e quais os recursos que usavam para atrair a atenção e o voto dos eleitores. A metodologia adotada foi a análise de conteúdo, uma vez que se deseja compreender quais são os principais sinais e características definidos pelos partidos e pelos candidatos no momento de serem divulgados. Foram definidas seis categorias para a análise de dez vídeos do horário eleitoral gratuito na televisão dos três principais candidatos, tanto do primeiro, quanto do segundo turno. Conclui-se que a candidata Dilma Rousseff foi a que mais aproveitou de todos os artifícios estratégicos da comunicação política, da propaganda eleitoral, apropriada da democracia midiática, com forte apelo emotivo nas categorias analisadas, resultando em uma vitória apertada, a mais disputada até hoje, porém, de resultado positivo para a campanha de reeleição da presidente

Procéduralisme épistémique et légitimité démocratique : une défense de l'égalité politique

Ce mémoire explore la relation qui lie démocratie et légitimité politique, dans une perspective épistémique. La démocratie, dans son acception la plus générale, confère à chacun la possibilité de faire valoir les intérêts qu'il estime être les siens et ceux de sa communauté, en particulier à l’occasion d’un scrutin. Cette procédure décisionnelle qu’est le vote consacre ainsi en quelque sorte la liberté et l’égalité dont profitent chacun des citoyens, et confère une certaine légitimité au processus décisionnel. Cela dit, si le vote n’est pas encadré par des considérations épistémiques, rien ne garantit que le résultat politique qui en découlera sera souhaitable tant pour les individus que pour la collectivité: il est tout à fait permis d’imaginer que des politiques discriminatoires, économiquement néfastes ou simplement inefficaces voient ainsi le jour, et prennent effet au détriment de tous. En réponse à ce problème, différentes théories démocratiques ont vu le jour et se sont succédé, afin de tenter de lier davantage le processus démocratique à l’atteinte d’objectifs politiques bénéfiques pour la collectivité. Au nombre d’entre elles, la démocratie délibérative a proposé de substituer la seule confrontation d’intérêts de la démocratie agrégative par une recherche collective du bien commun, canalisée autour de procédures délibératives appelées à légitimer sur des bases plus solides l’exercice démocratique. À sa suite, la démocratie épistémique s’est inspirée des instances délibératives en mettant davantage l’accent sur la qualité des résultats obtenus que sur les procédures elles-mêmes. Au final, un même dilemme hante chaque fois les différentes théories : est-il préférable de construire les instances décisionnelles en se concentrant prioritairement sur les critères procéduraux eux-mêmes, au risque de voir de mauvaises décisions filtrer malgré tout au travers du processus sans pouvoir rien y faire, ou devons-nous avoir d’entrée de jeu une conception plus substantielle de ce qui constitue une bonne décision, au risque cette fois de sacrifier la liberté de choix qui est supposé caractériser un régime démocratique? La thèse que nous défendrons dans ce mémoire est que le concept d’égalité politique peut servir à dénouer ce dilemme, en prenant aussi bien la forme d’un critère procédural que celle d’un objectif politique préétabli. L’égalité politique devient en ce sens une source normative forte de légitimité politique. En nous appuyant sur le procéduralisme épistémique de David Estlund, nous espérons avoir démontré au terme de ce mémoire que l’atteinte d’une égalité politique substantielle par le moyen de procédures égalitaires n’est pas une tautologie hermétique, mais plutôt un mécanisme réflexif améliorant tantôt la robustesse des procédures décisionnelles, tantôt l’atteinte d’une égalité tangible dans les rapports entre citoyens.

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

Partisan Dealignment in Germany: A rejoinder to Russell Dalton

The work of Russell Dalton has undoubtedly played a seminal role in the study of the relation between political sophistication and partisan dealignment. We furthermore acknowledge the presence of a consensus on the occurrence of lower levels of partisanship in Germany. Using panel data as well as pooled cross-sectional observations, however, it is clear that generational replacement is not the sole driving force of partisan dealignment, but that period effects should also be taken into account. While on an aggregate level rising levels of political sophistication have occurred simultaneously with decreasing partisanship, individual level analysis suggests clearly that the least sophisticated are most likely to feel alienated from the party system. We close with some very specific suggestion on how to address the democratic consequences of declining levels of partisanship.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy

After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies and national-level elections. In this paper, we show that at a local level as well, mechanisms of accountability linked to the economy are at work. The local economic context affected voting behaviour in the 2012 Belgian municipal elections, with a stronger increase of unemployment rates in their municipality significantly decreasing the probability that voters choose an incumbent party. Additionally, we observe that voters are not opportunistically voting for incumbents who lower tax rates. Instead, voters seem to be holding local incumbents accountable for local economic conditions. We hence conclude that voters care about economic outcomes, not about what specific policies are implemented to reach these outcomes.

Transfert de voix, flux électoraux et électeurs mobiles

Ruth Dassonneville et Pierre Baudewyns révèlent que, derrière les pourcentages des résultats électoraux, se cachent bien des mouvements et transferts d’électeurs. Ils se penchent sur la « volatilité nette », c’est-à-dire sur la somme des avancées et reculs des différents partis. Ils regardent également au niveau des individus (les électeurs) et observent que les électeurs et électrices votent différemment en 2014. Sur la base de ces analyses des transferts de voix, les auteurs démontrent également que, du côté wallon, on a assisté à un certain éparpillement des votes, surtout entre les partis de gauche. En Flandre, par contre, les électeurs et électrices de centre-droit ont fortement convergé vers la N-VA. Les auteurs établissent aussi un portrait précis de qui sont les électeurs stables (« stayers ») et les électeurs mobiles (« movers »).

Les minorités ethniques et l'État québécois : participation et représentations sociales des associations de groupes ethniques minoritaires lors de commissions parlementaires, 1974-2000

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Making Good Citizens: Policy Approaches to Increasing Civic Participation

In this dissertation, I explore the impact of several public policies on civic participation. Using a unique combination of school administrative and public–use voter files and methods for causal inference, I evaluate the impact of three new, as of yet unexplored, policies: one informational, one institutional, and one skill–based. Chapter 2 examines the causal effect of No Child Left Behind’s performance-based accountability school failure signals on turnout in school board elections and on individuals’ use of exit. I find that failure signals mobilize citizens both at the ballot box and by encouraging them to vote with their feet. However, these increases in voice and exit come primarily from citizens who already active—thus exacerbating inequalities in both forms of participation. Chapter 3 examines the causal effect of preregistration—an electoral reform that allows young citizens to enroll in the electoral system before turning 18, while also providing them with various in-school supports. Using data from the Current Population Survey and Florida Voter Files and multiple methods for causal inference, I (with my coauthor listed below) show that preregistration mobilizes and does so for a diverse set of citizens. Finally, Chapter 4 examines the impact of psychosocial or so called non-cognitive skills on voter turnout. Using information from the Fast Track intervention, I show that early– childhood investments in psychosocial skills have large, long-run spillovers on civic participation. These gains are widely distributed, being especially large for those least likely to participate. These chapters provide clear insights that reach across disciplinary boundaries and speak to current policy debates. In placing specific attention not only on whether these programs mobilize, but also on who they mobilize, I provide scholars and practitioners with new ways of thinking about how to address stubbornly low and unequal rates of citizen engagement.

Geographic Information Systems-Based Approaches to Study Congressional Redistricting in the United States

The ability for the citizens of a nation to determine their own representation has long been regarded as one of the most critical objectives of any electoral system. Without having the assurance of equality in representation, the fundamental nature and operation of the political system is severely undermined. Given the centuries of institutional reforms and population changes in the American system, Congressional Redistricting stands as an institution whereby this promise of effective representation can either be fulfilled or denied. The broad set of processes that encapsulate Congres- sional Redistricting have been discussed, experimented, and modified to achieve clear objectives and have long been understood to be important. Questions remain about how the dynamics which link all of these processes operate and what impact the real- ities of Congressional Redistricting hold for representation in the American system. This dissertation examines three aspects of how Congressional Redistricting in the Untied States operates in accordance with the principle of “One Person, One Vote.” By utilizing data and data analysis techniques of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this dissertation seeks to address how Congressional Redistricting impacts the principle of one person, one vote from the standpoint of legislator accountability, redistricting institutions, and the promise of effective minority representation.