Tuberculosis-related mortality in people living with HIV in Europe and Latin America: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND Management of tuberculosis in patients with HIV in eastern Europe is complicated by the high prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, low rates of drug susceptibility testing, and poor access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We report 1 year mortality estimates from a multiregional (eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America) prospective cohort study: the TB:HIV study. METHODS Consecutive HIV-positive patients aged 16 years or older with a diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, were enrolled from 62 HIV and tuberculosis clinics in 19 countries in eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after starting tuberculosis treatment; all deaths were classified according to whether or not they were tuberculosis related. Follow-up was either until death, the final visit, or 12 months after baseline, whichever occurred first. Risk factors for all-cause and tuberculosis-related deaths were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox models. FINDINGS Of 1406 patients (834 in eastern Europe, 317 in western Europe, and 255 in Latin America), 264 (19%) died within 12 months. 188 (71%) of these deaths were tuberculosis related. The probability of all-cause death was 29% (95% CI 26-32) in eastern Europe, 4% (3-7) in western Europe, and 11% (8-16) in Latin America (p<0·0001) and the corresponding probabilities of tuberculosis-related death were 23% (20-26), 1% (0-3), and 4% (2-8), respectively (p<0·0001). Patients receiving care outside eastern Europe had a 77% decreased risk of death: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·23 (95% CI 0·16-0·31). In eastern Europe, compared with patients who started a regimen with at least three active antituberculosis drugs, those who started fewer than three active antituberculosis drugs were at a higher risk of tuberculosis-related death (aHR 3·17; 95% CI 1·83-5·49) as were those who did not have baseline drug-susceptibility tests (2·24; 1·31-3·83). Other prognostic factors for increased tuberculosis-related mortality were disseminated tuberculosis and a low CD4 cell count. 18% of patients were receiving ART at tuberculosis diagnosis in eastern Europe compared with 44% in western Europe and 39% in Latin America (p<0·0001); 12 months later the proportions were 67% in eastern Europe, 92% in western Europe, and 85% in Latin America (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Patients with HIV and tuberculosis in eastern Europe have a risk of death nearly four-times higher than that in patients from western Europe and Latin America. This increased mortality rate is associated with modifiable risk factors such as lack of drug susceptibility testing and suboptimal initial antituberculosis treatment in settings with a high prevalence of drug resistance. Urgent action is needed to improve tuberculosis care for patients living with HIV in eastern Europe. FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme.

Modeling immune functions of the mouse blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier in vitro: primary rather than immortalized mouse choroid plexus epithelial cells are suited to study immune cell migration across this brain barrier.

BACKGROUND The blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier (BCSFB) established by the choroid plexus (CP) epithelium has been recognized as a potential entry site of immune cells into the central nervous system during immunosurveillance and neuroinflammation. The location of the choroid plexus impedes in vivo analysis of immune cell trafficking across the BCSFB. Thus, research on cellular and molecular mechanisms of immune cell migration across the BCSFB is largely limited to in vitro models. In addition to forming contact-inhibited epithelial monolayers that express adhesion molecules, the optimal in vitro model must establish a tight permeability barrier as this influences immune cell diapedesis. METHODS We compared cell line models of the mouse BCSFB derived from the Immortomouse(®) and the ECPC4 line to primary mouse choroid plexus epithelial cell (pmCPEC) cultures for their ability to establish differentiated and tight in vitro models of the BCSFB. RESULTS We found that inducible cell line models established from the Immortomouse(®) or the ECPC4 tumor cell line did not express characteristic epithelial proteins such as cytokeratin and E-cadherin and failed to reproducibly establish contact-inhibited epithelial monolayers that formed a tight permeability barrier. In contrast, cultures of highly-purified pmCPECs expressed cytokeratin and displayed mature BCSFB characteristic junctional complexes as visualized by the junctional localization of E-cadherin, β-catenin and claudins-1, -2, -3 and -11. pmCPECs formed a tight barrier with low permeability and high electrical resistance. When grown in inverted filter cultures, pmCPECs were suitable to study T cell migration from the basolateral to the apical side of the BCSFB, thus correctly modelling in vivo migration of immune cells from the blood to the CSF. CONCLUSIONS Our study excludes inducible and tumor cell line mouse models as suitable to study immune functions of the BCSFB in vitro. Rather, we introduce here an in vitro inverted filter model of the primary mouse BCSFB suited to study the cellular and molecular mechanisms mediating immune cell migration across the BCSFB during immunosurveillance and neuroinflammation.

Global models of planet formation and evolution

Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.

Code-switching: a touchstone of models of bilingual language production

The goal of the present thesis was to investigate the production of code-switched utterances in bilinguals’ speech production. This study investigates the availability of grammatical-category information during bilingual language processing. The specific aim is to examine the processes involved in the production of Persian-English bilingual compound verbs (BCVs). A bilingual compound verb is formed when the nominal constituent of a compound verb is replaced by an item from the other language. In the present cases of BCVs the nominal constituents are replaced by a verb from the other language. The main question addressed is how a lexical element corresponding to a verb node can be placed in a slot that corresponds to a noun lemma. This study also investigates how the production of BCVs might be captured within a model of BCVs and how such a model may be integrated within incremental network models of speech production. In the present study, both naturalistic and experimental data were used to investigate the processes involved in the production of BCVs. In the first part of the present study, I collected 2298 minutes of a popular Iranian TV program and found 962 code-switched utterances. In 83 (8%) of the switched cases, insertions occurred within the Persian compound verb structure, hence, resulting in BCVs. As to the second part of my work, a picture-word interference experiment was conducted. This study addressed whether in the case of the production of Persian-English BCVs, English verbs compete with the corresponding Persian compound verbs as a whole, or whether English verbs compete with the nominal constituents of Persian compound verbs only. Persian-English bilinguals named pictures depicting actions in 4 conditions in Persian (L1). In condition 1, participants named pictures of action using the whole Persian compound verb in the context of its English equivalent distractor verb. In condition 2, only the nominal constituent was produced in the presence of the light verb of the target Persian compound verb and in the context of a semantically closely related English distractor verb. In condition 3, the whole Persian compound verb was produced in the context of a semantically unrelated English distractor verb. In condition 4, only the nominal constituent was produced in the presence of the light verb of the target Persian compound verb and in the context of a semantically unrelated English distractor verb. The main effect of linguistic unit was significant by participants and items. Naming latencies were longer in the nominal linguistic unit compared to the compound verb (CV) linguistic unit. That is, participants were slower to produce the nominal constituent of compound verbs in the context of a semantically closely related English distractor verb compared to producing the whole compound verbs in the context of a semantically closely related English distractor verb. The three-way interaction between version of the experiment (CV and nominal versions), linguistic unit (nominal and CV linguistic units), and relation (semantically related and unrelated distractor words) was significant by participants. In both versions, naming latencies were longer in the semantically related nominal linguistic unit compared to the response latencies in the semantically related CV linguistic unit. In both versions, naming latencies were longer in the semantically related nominal linguistic unit compared to response latencies in the semantically unrelated nominal linguistic unit. Both the analysis of the naturalistic data and the results of the experiment revealed that in the case of the production of the nominal constituent of BCVs, a verb from the other language may compete with a noun from the base language, suggesting that grammatical category does not necessarily provide a constraint on lexical access during the production of the nominal constituent of BCVs. There was a minimal context in condition 2 (the nominal linguistic unit) in which the nominal constituent was produced in the presence of its corresponding light verb. The results suggest that generating words within a context may not guarantee that the effect of grammatical class becomes available. A model is proposed in order to characterize the processes involved in the production of BCVs. Implications for models of bilingual language production are discussed.

The role of MEKK3 in T cell homeostasis and IFNgamma production

MEKK3, a member of the MAP3K family, is involved in regulating multiple MAPK and NF-κB pathways. The MAPK and NF-κB signaling pathways are important in regulating T cell functions. MEKK3 is expressed through the development of T cell and also in subsets of T cell in the peripheral. However, the specific role of MEKK3 in T cell function is unknown. To reveal the in vivo function of MEKK3 in T cells, I have generated MEKK3 T cell conditional knock-out mice. Despite a normal thymus development in the conditional knock-out mice, I observed a decrease in the number of peripheral T-cells and impaired T-cell function in response to antigen stimulation. T cells undergo homeostatic proliferation under lymphopenia condition, a process called lymphopenia-induced proliferation (LIP). Using a LIP model, I demonstrated that the reduction of peripheral T cell number is largely due to a severe impairment of the self-antigen/MHC mediated T cell homeostasis. Upon anti-CD3 stimulation, the proliferation of MEKK3-deficient T cell is not significantly affected, but the production of IFNγ by naïve and effector CD4 T cells are markedly decreased. Interestingly, the IL-12/IL-18 driven IFNγ production and MAPK activation in MEKK3-deficient T cells is not affected, suggesting that MEKK3 selectively mediates the TCR induced MAPK signaling. Furthermore, I found that MEKK3 is activated by TCR stimulation in a RAC1/2 dependent manner, but not by IL-12/IL-18 stimulation. Finally, I showed that basal level of ERK and JNK activation is defective under LIP condition. I showed that the TCR induced ERK, JNK and p38 MAPK activation is also defective in MEKK3 deficient CD4 T cells. Taken together, my data demonstrate a crucial role of MEKK3 in T cell homeostasis and IFNγ production through regulating the TCR mediated MAPK pathway. ^

THE NATURAL AND ORTHOGONAL INTERACTION (NOIA) MODELS FOR QUANTITATIVE TRAITS (QTs) AND COMPLEX DISEASES

My dissertation focuses on developing methods for gene-gene/environment interactions and imprinting effect detections for human complex diseases and quantitative traits. It includes three sections: (1) generalizing the Natural and Orthogonal interaction (NOIA) model for the coding technique originally developed for gene-gene (GxG) interaction and also to reduced models; (2) developing a novel statistical approach that allows for modeling gene-environment (GxE) interactions influencing disease risk, and (3) developing a statistical approach for modeling genetic variants displaying parent-of-origin effects (POEs), such as imprinting. In the past decade, genetic researchers have identified a large number of causal variants for human genetic diseases and traits by single-locus analysis, and interaction has now become a hot topic in the effort to search for the complex network between multiple genes or environmental exposures contributing to the outcome. Epistasis, also known as gene-gene interaction is the departure from additive genetic effects from several genes to a trait, which means that the same alleles of one gene could display different genetic effects under different genetic backgrounds. In this study, we propose to implement the NOIA model for association studies along with interaction for human complex traits and diseases. We compare the performance of the new statistical models we developed and the usual functional model by both simulation study and real data analysis. Both simulation and real data analysis revealed higher power of the NOIA GxG interaction model for detecting both main genetic effects and interaction effects. Through application on a melanoma dataset, we confirmed the previously identified significant regions for melanoma risk at 15q13.1, 16q24.3 and 9p21.3. We also identified potential interactions with these significant regions that contribute to melanoma risk. Based on the NOIA model, we developed a novel statistical approach that allows us to model effects from a genetic factor and binary environmental exposure that are jointly influencing disease risk. Both simulation and real data analyses revealed higher power of the NOIA model for detecting both main genetic effects and interaction effects for both quantitative and binary traits. We also found that estimates of the parameters from logistic regression for binary traits are no longer statistically uncorrelated under the alternative model when there is an association. Applying our novel approach to a lung cancer dataset, we confirmed four SNPs in 5p15 and 15q25 region to be significantly associated with lung cancer risk in Caucasians population: rs2736100, rs402710, rs16969968 and rs8034191. We also validated that rs16969968 and rs8034191 in 15q25 region are significantly interacting with smoking in Caucasian population. Our approach identified the potential interactions of SNP rs2256543 in 6p21 with smoking on contributing to lung cancer risk. Genetic imprinting is the most well-known cause for parent-of-origin effect (POE) whereby a gene is differentially expressed depending on the parental origin of the same alleles. Genetic imprinting affects several human disorders, including diabetes, breast cancer, alcoholism, and obesity. This phenomenon has been shown to be important for normal embryonic development in mammals. Traditional association approaches ignore this important genetic phenomenon. In this study, we propose a NOIA framework for a single locus association study that estimates both main allelic effects and POEs. We develop statistical (Stat-POE) and functional (Func-POE) models, and demonstrate conditions for orthogonality of the Stat-POE model. We conducted simulations for both quantitative and qualitative traits to evaluate the performance of the statistical and functional models with different levels of POEs. Our results showed that the newly proposed Stat-POE model, which ensures orthogonality of variance components if Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) or equal minor and major allele frequencies is satisfied, had greater power for detecting the main allelic additive effect than a Func-POE model, which codes according to allelic substitutions, for both quantitative and qualitative traits. The power for detecting the POE was the same for the Stat-POE and Func-POE models under HWE for quantitative traits.

Investigation of mechanisms involved in ultraviolet B radiation-induced, T cell -mediated immune suppression

Cutaneous exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation (UVR) results in the suppression of cell-mediated immune responses such as contact hypersensitivity (CHS) and delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH). This modulation of immune responses is mediated by local or systemic mechanisms, both of which are associated with the generation of antigen-specific suppressor T lymphocytes (Ts). UV-induced Ts have been shown to be CD3+CD4+CD8 − T cells that control multiple immunological pathways. However, the precise mechanisms involved in the generation and function of these immunoregulatory cells remain unclear. We investigated the cellular basis for the generation of UV-induced Ts lymphocytes in both local and systemic models of immune suppression, and further examined the pleiotrophic function of these immunoregulatory cells. ^ We used Thy1.1 and Thy1.2 congenic mice in a draining lymph node (DLN) cell transfer model to analyze the role played by epidermal Langerhans cells in the generation of Ts cells. We demonstrate that T cells tightly adhered to antigen-presenting cells (APC) from UV-irradiated skin are the direct progenitors of UV-induced Ts lymphocytes. Our studies also reveal that UV-induced DNA-damage in the form of cyclobutyl pyrimidine dimers (CPD) in the epidermal APC is crucial for the altered maturation of these adherent T cells into Ts. ^ We used TCR transgenic mice in an adoptive transfer model and physically tracked the antigen-specific clones during immune responses in unirradiated versus UV-irradiated mice. We demonstrate that UV-induced Ts and effector TDTH cells share the same epitope specificity, indicating that both cell populations arise from the same clonal progenitors. UVR also causes profound changes in the localization and proliferation of antigen-specific T cells during an immune response. Antigen-specific T cells are not detectable in the DLNs of UV-irradiated mice after 3 days post-immunization, but are found in abundance in the spleen. In contrast, these clones continue to be found in the DLNs and spleens of normal animals several days post-immunization. Our studies also reveal that a Th2 cytokine environment is essential for the generation of Ts in UV-irradiated mice. ^ The third part of our study examined the pleiotrophic nature of UV-induced Ts. We used a model for the induction of both cellular and humoral responses to human gamma-globulin (HGG) to demonstrate that UV-induced Ts lymphocytes can suppress DTH as well as antibody responses. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Experimental growth characteristics, cell size, yessotoxin values and bioassay data of Protoceratium reticulatum (Dinophyceae)

Harmful algal blooms are mainly caused by marine dinoflagellates and are known to produce potent toxins that may affect the ecosystem, human activities and health. Such events have increased in frequency and intensity worldwide in the past decades. Numerous processes involved in Global Change are amplified in the Arctic, but little is known about species specific responses of arctic dinoflagellates. The aim of this work was to perform an exhaustive morphological, phylogenetical and toxinological characterization of Greenland Protoceratium reticulatum and, in addition, to test the effect of temperature on growth and production of bioactive secondary metabolites. Seven clonal isolates, the first isolates of P. reticulatum available from arctic waters, were phylogenetically characterized by analysis of the LSU rDNA. Six isolates were further characterized morphologically and were shown to produce both yessotoxins (YTX) and lytic compounds, representing the first report of allelochemical activity in P. reticulatum. As shown for one of the isolates, growth was strongly affected by temperature with a maximum growth rate at 15 °C, a significant but slow growth at 1 °C, and cell death at 25 °C, suggesting an adaptation of P. reticulatum to temperate waters. Temperature had no major effect on total YTX cell quota or lytic activity but both were affected by the growth phase with a significant increase at stationary phase. A comparison of six isolates at a fixed temperature of 10 °C showed high intraspecific variability for all three physiological parameters tested. Growth rate varied from 0.06 to 0.19 per day, and total YTX concentration ranged from 0.3 to 15.0 pg YTX/cell and from 0.5 to 31.0 pg YTX/cell at exponential and stationary phase, respectively. All six isolates performed lytic activity; however, for two isolates lytic activity was only detectable at higher cell densities in stationary phase.

Description and chemical and mineral composition of iron oxide samples from two Finnish lakes

Fifteen iron oxide accumulations from the bottoms of two Finnish lakes ("lake ores") were found to contain as much as 50% Fe. Differential X-ray powder diffraction and selective dissolution by oxalate showed that the samples consisted of poorly crystallized goethite and ferrihydrite. The crust ores of one lake had higher ferrihydrite to goethite ratios than the nodular ores of the other lake. The higher ferrihydrite proportion was attributed to a higher rate of Fe2+ supply from the ground water and/or a higher rate of oxidation as a function of water depth and bottom-sediment permeability. Values of Al-for-Fe substitution of the goethites determined from unit-cell dimensions agreed with those obtained from chemical extraction if the unit-cell volume rather than the c dimension was used. In very small goethite crystals a slight expansion of the a unit-cell dimension is probaby compensated by a corresponding contraction of the c dimension, so that a contraction of the c dimension need not necessarily be caused by Al substitution. The goethites of the two lakes differed significantly in their Al-for-Fe substitutions and hence in their unit-cell sizes, OH-bending characteristics, dehydroxylation temperatures, dissolution kinetics, and Mössbauer parameters. The difference in Al substitution (0 vs. 7 mole %) is attributed to the Al-supplying power of the bottom sediments: the silty-clayey sediments in one lake appear to have supplied A1 during goethite formation, whereas the gravelly-sandy sediments in the other lake did not. The compositions of the goethites thus reflect their environments of formation.

Petrology, mineralogy, and chemistry of basaltic rocks at DSDP Leg 81 Holes

We detail the petrography and mineralogy of 145 basaltic rocks from the top, middle, and base of flow units identified on shipboard along with associated pyroclastic samples. Our account includes representative electron microprobe analyses of primary and secondary minerals; 28 whole-rock major-oxide analyses; 135 whole-rock analyses each for 21 trace elements; 7 whole-rock rare-earth analyses; and 77 whole-rock X-ray-diffraction analyses. These data show generally similar petrography, mineralogy, and chemistry for the basalts from all four sites; they are typically subalkaline and consanguineous with limited evolution along the tholeiite trend. Limited fractionation is indicated by immobile trace elements; some xenocrystic incorporation from more basic material also occurred. Secondary alteration products indicate early subaerial weathering followed by prolonged interaction with seawater, most likely below 150°C at Holes 552, 553A, and 554A. At Hole 555, greenschist alteration affected the deepest rocks (olivine-dolerite) penetrated, at 250-300°C.

Late Pliocene age models of Agulhas Plateau sediment cores

An ensemble of new, high-resolution records of surface ocean hydrography from the Indian-Atlantic oceanic gateway, south of Africa, demonstrates recurrent and high-amplitude salinity oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage area during the penultimate glacial-interglacial cycle. A series of millennial-scale salinification events, indicating strengthened salt leakage into the South Atlantic, appear to correlate with abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This interhemispheric coupling, which plausibly involved changes in the Hadley Cell and midlatitude westerlies that impacted the interocean transport at the tip of Africa, suggests that the Agulhas Leakage acted as a source of negative buoyancy for the perturbed AMOC, possibly aiding its return to full strength. Our finding points to the Indian-to-Atlantic salt transport as a potentially important modulator of the AMOC during the abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene.

Abundance of diatom cells in sediments from the Okhotsk and Bering Seas and the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The present investigation was targeted at diatom composition studies in the surface sediments (0-1 cm) sampled in the Sea of Okhotsk and the northwest Pacific in the depth range from 130 to 6110 m. The taxonomic analysis, as well as the quantitative (the diatom cell abundance per sediment dry weight unit) content and ecological group definition, was applied. Ten diatom taxa are the main body (80-100%) of the diatom assemblages: Bacterosira bathyomphala, Chaetoceros spp. (spores), Actinocyclus curvatulus, Thalassiosira latimarginata (group), T. antarctica (spores), Neodenticula seminae, Rhizosolenia hebetata f. hiemalis, Thalassiothrix longissima, Coscinodiscus marginatus, Coscinodiscus oculus iridis. The relative content of these species reflects the sedimentation conditions for different parts of the sea: the shelf, the continental slope, the open sea, and the ocean. The highest diatom content (45.6.3-60.0 mln per g of dry weight) was found for the surface sediments in the central part of the Sea of Okhotsk and the continental slope of western Kamchatka.

Transcriptional response to cardiac injury in the zebrafish: systematic identification of genes with highly concordant activity across in vivo models

BACKGROUND Zebrafish is a clinically-relevant model of heart regeneration. Unlike mammals, it has a remarkable heart repair capacity after injury, and promises novel translational applications. Amputation and cryoinjury models are key research tools for understanding injury response and regeneration in vivo. An understanding of the transcriptional responses following injury is needed to identify key players of heart tissue repair, as well as potential targets for boosting this property in humans. RESULTS We investigated amputation and cryoinjury in vivo models of heart damage in the zebrafish through unbiased, integrative analyses of independent molecular datasets. To detect genes with potential biological roles, we derived computational prediction models with microarray data from heart amputation experiments. We focused on a top-ranked set of genes highly activated in the early post-injury stage, whose activity was further verified in independent microarray datasets. Next, we performed independent validations of expression responses with qPCR in a cryoinjury model. Across in vivo models, the top candidates showed highly concordant responses at 1 and 3 days post-injury, which highlights the predictive power of our analysis strategies and the possible biological relevance of these genes. Top candidates are significantly involved in cell fate specification and differentiation, and include heart failure markers such as periostin, as well as potential new targets for heart regeneration. For example, ptgis and ca2 were overexpressed, while usp2a, a regulator of the p53 pathway, was down-regulated in our in vivo models. Interestingly, a high activity of ptgis and ca2 has been previously observed in failing hearts from rats and humans. CONCLUSIONS We identified genes with potential critical roles in the response to cardiac damage in the zebrafish. Their transcriptional activities are reproducible in different in vivo models of cardiac injury.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Lesson from the habitat suitability models to evaluate the environmental of Pinus nigra Arnold and Pinus sylvesris L. in the Iberian Peninsula

PREDICT POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION. Spatial and temporal evolution of the species under different climate scenarios. Generation of habitat suitability models (HSM)  high degree of uncertainty and limitations. The importance of their validation has been stressed. In this work we discuss the present potential distribution of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the Iberian Peninsula by using MaxEnt, and evaluate the influence of the different environmental variables. Our intention is to select a set of environmental variables that explains better their current distribution, to achieve the most accurate and reliable models. Then we project them to the past climatic conditions (21 to 0 kyrs BP), to evaluate the outputs with existing palaeo-ecological data.