Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement using Re-configurable Ring Oscillator

We report a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and non-inverting) in its unmodified form using digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). Solving a system of linear equations with different configuration setting of the RO gives delay of an individual gate. Experimental results from a test chip in 65nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1pS accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identical inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 26% indicating the large impact of local or within-die variations.

Electronic structure studies and photocatalytic properties of cubic Bi1.5ZnNb1.5O7

The photocatalytic ability of cubic Bi1.5ZnNb1.5O7 (BZN) pyrochlore for the decolorization of an acid orange 7 (AO7) azo dye in aqueous solution under ultraviolet (UV) irradiation has been investigated for the first time. BZN catalyst powders prepared using low temperature sol-gel and higher temperature solid-state methods have been evaluated and their reaction rates have been compared.The experimental band gap energy has been estimated from the optical absorption edge and has been used as reference for theoretical calculations. The electronic band structure of BZN has been investigated using first-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations for random, completely and partially ordered solid solutions of Zn cations in both the A and B sites of the pyrochlore structure.The nature of the orbitals in the valence band (VB) and the conduction band (CB) has been identified and the theoretical band gap energy has been discussed in terms of the DFT model approximations.

Synthesis, characterization, and electronic structure studies of cubic Bi1.5ZnTa1.5O7 for photocatalytic applications

Bi1.5ZnTa1.5O7 (BZT) has been synthesized using an alkoxide based sol-gel reaction route. The evolution of the phases produced from the alkoxide precursors and their properties have been characterized as function of temperature using a combination of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) coupled with mass spectrometry (MS), infrared emission spectrometry (IES), X-ray diffraction (XRD), ultraviolet and visible (UV-Vis) spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and N2 adsorption/desorption isotherms. The lowest sintering temperature (600∘C) to obtain phase pure BZT powders with high surface area (14.5m2/g) has been determined from the thermal decomposition and phase analyses.The photocatalytic activity of the BZT powders has been tested for the decolorization of organic azo-dye and found to be photoactive under UV irradiation.The electronic band structure of the BZT has been investigated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations to determine the band gap energy (3.12 eV) and to compare it with experimental band gap (3.02 eV at 800∘C) from optical absorptionmeasurements. An excellent match is obtained for an assumption of Zn cation substitutions at specifically ordered sites in the BZT structure.

Passivity-based Trajectory-tracking for Marine Craft with Disturbance Rejection

This paper presents a Hamiltonian model of marine vehicle dynamics in six degrees of freedom in both body-fixed and inertial momentum coordinates. The model in body-fixed coordinates presents a particular structure of the mass matrix that allows the adaptation and application of passivity-based control interconnection and damping assignment design methodologies developed for robust stabilisation of mechanical systems in terms of generalised coordinates. As an example of application, we follow this methodology to design a passivity-based tracking controller with integral action for fully actuated vehicles in six degrees of freedom. We also describe a momentum transformation that allows an alternative model representation that resembles general port-Hamiltonian mechanical systems with a coordinate dependent mass matrix. This can be seen as an enabling step towards the adaptation of the theory of control of port-Hamiltonian systems developed in robotic manipulators and multi-body mechanical systems to the case of marine craft dynamics.

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

Smooth stabilisation of nonholonomic robots subject to disturbances

In this paper, we address the problem of stabilisation of robots subject to nonholonommic constraints and external disturbances using port-Hamiltonian theory and smooth time-invariant control laws. This should be contrasted with the commonly used switched or time-varying laws. We propose a control design that provides asymptotic stability of an manifold (also called relative equilibria)-due to the Brockett condition this is the only type of stabilisation possible using smooth time-invariant control laws. The equilibrium manifold can be shaped to certain extent to satisfy specific control objectives. The proposed control law also incorporates integral action, and thus the closed-loop system is robust to unknown constant disturbances. A key step in the proposed design is a change of coordinates not only in the momentum, but also in the position vector, which differs from coordinate transformations previously proposed in the literature for the control of nonholonomic systems. The theoretical properties of the control law are verified via numerical simulation based on a robotic ground vehicle model with differential traction wheels and non co-axial centre of mass and point of contact.

La modernización entre cafetales : San José, Costa Rica, 1880-1930

This work examines the urban modernization of San José, Costa Rica, between 1880 and 1930, using a cultural approach to trace the emergence of the bourgeois city in a small Central American capital, within the context of order and progress. As proposed by Henri Lefebvre, Manuel Castells and Edward Soja, space is given its rightful place as protagonist. The city, subject of this study, is explored as a seat of social power and as the embodiment of a cultural transformation that took shape in that space, a transformation spearheaded by the dominant social group, the Liberal elite. An analysis of the product built environment allows us to understand why the city grew in a determined manner: how the urban space became organized and how its infrastructure and services distributed. Although the emphasis is on the Liberal heyday from 1880-1930, this study also examines the history of the city since its origins in the late colonial period through its consolidation as a capital during the independent era, in order to characterize the nineteenth century colonial city that prevailed up to 1890 s. A diverse array of primary sources including official acts, memoirs, newspaper sources, maps and plans, photographs, and travelogues are used to study the initial phase of San Jose s urban growth. The investigation places the first period of modern urban growth at the turn of the nineteenth century within the prevailing ideological and political context of Positivism and Liberalism. The ideas of the city s elite regarding progress were translated into and reflected in the physical transformation of the city and in the social construction of space. Not only the transformations but also the limits and contradictions of the process of urban change are examined. At the same time, the reorganization of the city s physical space and the beginnings of the ensanche are studied. Hygiene as an engine of urban renovation is explored by studying the period s new public infrastructure (including pipelines, sewer systems, and the use of asphalt pavement) as part of the Saneamiento of San José. The modernization of public space is analyzed through a study of the first parks, boulevards and monuments and the emergence of a new urban culture prominently displayed in these green spaces. Parks and boulevards were new public and secular places of power within the modern city, used by the elite to display and educate the urban population into the new civic and secular traditions. The study goes on to explore the idealized image of the modern city through an analysis of European and North American travelogues and photography. The new esthetic of theatrical-spectacular representation of the modern city constructed a visual guide of how to understand and come to know the city. A partial and selective image of generalized urban change presented only the bourgeois facade and excluded everything that challenged the idea of progress. The enduring patterns of spatial and symbolic exclusion built into Costa Rica s capital city at the dawn of the twentieth century shed important light on the long-term political social and cultural processes that have created the troubled urban landscapes of contemporary Latin America.

Growth and physiological response of six Australian rainforest tree species to a light gradient

An understanding of growth and photosynthetic potential of subtropical rainforest species to variations in light environment can be useful for determining the sequence of species introductions in rainforest restoration projects and mixed species plantations. We examined the growth and physiology of six Australian subtropical rainforest tree species in a greenhouse consisting of three artificial light environments (10%, 30%, and 60% full sunlight). Morphological responses followed the typical sun-shade dichotomy, with early and late secondary species (Elaeocarpus grandis, Flindersia brayleyana, Flindersia schottiana, and Gmelina leichhardtii) displaying higher relative growth rate (RGR) compared to mature stage species (Cryptocarya erythroxyion and Heritiera trifoliolatum). Growth and photosynthetic performance of most species reached a maximum in 30-60% full sunlight. Physiological responses provided limited evidence of a distinct dichotomy between early and late successional species. E. grandis and F brayleyana, provided a clear representation of early successional species, with marked increase in Am in high light and an ability to down regulate photosynthetic machinery in low light conditions. The remaining species (F. schottiana, G. leichhardtii, and H. trifoliolatum) were better represented as failing along a shade-tolerant continuum, with limited ability to adjust physiologically to an increase or decrease in light, maintaining similar A(max) across all light environments. Results show that most species belong to a shade-tolerant constituency, with an ability to grow and persist across a wide range of light environments. The species offer a wide range of potential planting scenarios and silvicultural options, with ample potential to achieve rapid canopy closure and rainforest restoration goals.

Fire resistance of light gauge steel frame wall systems lined with gypsum plasterboards

Light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems are increasingly used in residential and commercial buildings as load bearing and non-load bearing elements. Conventionally, the fire resistance ratings of such building elements are determined using approximate prescriptive methods based on limited standard fire tests. However, recent studies have shown that in some instances real building fire time-temperature curves could be more severe than the standard fire curve, in terms of maximum temperature and rate of temperature rise. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances has also lead to the collapse of buildings earlier than the prescribed fire resistance. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of LSF wall systems under both standard fire and realistic fire conditions was undertaken using full scale fire tests to understand the fire performance of different LSF wall configurations. Both load bearing and non-load bearing full scale fire tests were performed on LSF walls configurations which included single layer, double layer, externally insulated wall panels made up of different steel sections and thicknesses of gypsum plasterboards. The non-load bearing fire test results were utilized to understand the factors affecting the fire resistance of LSF walls, while loading bearing fire test results led to development of simplified methods to predict the fire resistance ratings of load bearing LSF walls exposed to both standard and realistic design fires. This paper presents the results of full scale experimental study and highlights the effects of standard and realistic fire conditions on fire performance of LSF walls.

Numerical studies of gypsum plasterboard and MGO board lined LSF walls exposed to fire

Fire resistance of cold-formed light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems is enhanced by lining them with single or multiple layers of wall boards with varying thermal properties. These wall boards are gypsum plasterboards or Magnesium Oxide (MgO) boards produced by different manufacturers. Thermal properties of these boards appear to show considerable variations and this can lead to varying fire resistance levels (FRL) for their wall systems. Currently FRLs of wall systems are determined using full scale fire tests, but they are time consuming and expensive. Recent research studies on the fire performance of LSF wall systems have used finite element studies to overcome this problem, but they were developed based on 1-D and 2-D finite element platform capable of performing either heat transfer or structural analysis separately. Hence in this research a 3-D finite element model was developed first for LSF walls lined with gypsum plasterboard and cavity insulation materials. Accurate thermal properties of these boards are essential for finite element modelling, and thus they were measured at both ambient and elevated temperatures. This experimental study included specific heat, relative density and thermal conductivity of boards. The developed 3-D finite element model was then validated using the available fire tests results of LSF walls lined with gypsum plasterboard, and is being used to investigate the fire performance of different LSF wall configurations. The tested MgO board exhibited significant variations in their thermal properties in comparison to gypsum plasterboards with about 50% loss of its initial mass at about 500 ºC compared to 16% for gypsum plasterboards. Hence the FRL of MgO board lined LSF wall systems is likely to be significantly reduced. This paper presents the details of this research study on the fire performance of LSF wall systems lined with gypsum plasterboard and MgO board including the developed 3-D finite element models, thermal property tests and the results.

Reactivity of rice husk ash

Effect of lime:silica ratio on the kinetics of the reaction of silica with saturated lime has been investigated. Below C/S=0.65 the reaction does not proceed to completion and even in the presence of a large excess of silica only 90% lime is consumed. A parameter, lime reactivity index, has been defined to quantity the reactive silica present in rice husk ash. The product of the reaction between rice husk ash and saturated lime is a calcium hydrosilicate, C---S---H(I)**. The fibrilar structure and the hollow tubular morphology of the fibres of C---S---H, have been explained by a growth mechanism, where the driving force is osmotic pressure.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Maximising profitability with limited water in cotton farming systems

Diminishing water supply, changing weather patterns and pressure to enhance environmental flows are making it imperative to optimise water use efficiency (WUE) on cotton/grain farming systems. Growers are looking for better strategies to make the best use of limited water, but it is still not clear how to best use the available water at farm and field scale. This research project investigated the impact of management strategies to deal with limited water supplies on the yield and quality of irrigated cotton and wheat. The objectives were: (1) to develop irrigation management guidelines for the main irrigated crops on the Darling Downs for full- and deficitirrigation scenarios, taking into account the critical factors that affect irrigation decisions at the local level, (2) to quantify the evapotranspiration (ET) of Bollgard II cotton and wheat and its relationship to yield and quality under full- and deficit-irrigation scenarios, and (3) to increase industry awareness and education of farming systems practises for optimised economic water use efficiency.Objective (1) was addressed by (A) collaborating with ASPRU to develop the APSFarm model within APSIM to be able to perform multi-paddock simulations. APSFarm was then tested by conducting a case study at a farm near Dalby, and (B) conducting semi-structured interviews with individual farmers and crop consultants on the Darling Downs to document the strategies they are using to deal with limited water. Objective (2) was addressed by (A) building and installing 12 large (1 m x 1m x 1.5 m) weighing lysimeters to measure crop evapotranspiration. The lysimeters were installed at the Agri-Science Queensland research station at Kingsthorpe in November 2008, (B) conducting field experiments to measure crop evapotranspiration and crop development under four irrigation treatments, including dryland, deficit-irrigation, and full irrigation. Field experiments were conducted with cotton in 2007-08 and 2008-09, and with wheat in 2008 and 2009, and (C) collaborating with USQ on a PhD thesis to quantify the impact of crop stress on crop evapotranspiration and canopy temperature. Glasshouse experiments were conducted with wheat in 2008 and with cotton in 2008-09. Objective (3) was addressed by (A) conducting a field day at Kingsthorpe in 2009, which was attended by 80 participants, (B) presenting information in conferences in Australia and overseas, (D) presenting information at farmers meeting, (E) making presentations to crop consultants, and (F) preparing extension publications.As part of this project we contributed to the development of APSfarm, which has been successfully applied to evaluate the feasibility of practices at the whole-farm scale. From growers and crop consultants interviews we learned that there is a great variety of strategies, at different scales, that they are using to deal with limited water situation. These strategies will be summarised in the "e;Limited Water Guidelines for the Darling Downs"e; that we are currently preparing. As a result of this project, we now have a state-of-the-art lysimeter research facility (23 large weighing lysimeters) to be able to conduct replicated experiments to investigate daily water use of a variety of crops under different irrigation regimes and under different environments. Under this project, a series of field and glasshouse experiments were conducted with cotton and wheat, investigating aspects like: (A) quantification of daily and seasonal crop water use under nonstressed and stressed conditions, (B) impact of row configuration on crop water use, (C) impact of water stress on yield, evapotranspiration, crop vegetative and reproductive development, soil water extraction pattern, yield and yield quality. The information obtained from this project is now being used to develop web-based tools to help growers make planning and day-to-day irrigation decisions.