Can we improve the statistical analysis of stroke trials? Statistical reanalysis of functional outcomes in stroke trials

Background and Purpose—Most large acute stroke trials have been neutral. Functional outcome is usually analyzed using a yes or no answer, eg, death or dependency versus independence. We assessed which statistical approaches are most efficient in analyzing outcomes from stroke trials. Methods—Individual patient data from acute, rehabilitation and stroke unit trials studying the effects of interventions which alter functional outcome were assessed. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, and “3 questions”. Data were analyzed using a variety of approaches which compare 2 treatment groups. The results for each statistical test for each trial were then compared. Results—Data from 55 datasets were obtained (47 trials, 54 173 patients). The test results differed substantially so that approaches which use the ordered nature of functional outcome data (ordinal logistic regression, t test, robust ranks test, bootstrapping the difference in mean rank) were more efficient statistically than those which collapse the data into 2 groups (2; ANOVA, P0.001). The findings were consistent across different types and sizes of trial and for the different measures of functional outcome. Conclusions—When analyzing functional outcome from stroke trials, statistical tests which use the original ordered data are more efficient and more likely to yield reliable results. Suitable approaches included ordinal logistic regression, test, and robust ranks test.

Systematic reviews as a tool for planning and interpreting trials

Background Systematic reviews followed by ameta-analysis are carried out in medical research to combine the results of two or more related studies. Stroke trials have struggled to show beneficial effects and meta-analysis should be used more widely throughout the research process to either speed up the development of useful interventions, or halt more quickly research with hazardous or ineffective interventions. Summary of review. This review summarises the clinical research process and illustrates how and when systematic reviews may be used throughout the development programme. Meta-analyses should be performed after observational studies, preclinical studies in experimental stroke, and after phase I, II, and III clinical trials and phase IV clinical surveillance studies. Although meta-analyses most commonly work with summary data, they may be performed to assess relationships between variables (meta-regression) and, ideally, should utilise individual patient data. Meta-analysis techniques may alsoworkwith ordered categorical outcome data (ordinal meta-analysis) and be used to perform indirect comparisons where original trial data do not exist. Conclusion Systematic review/meta-analyses are powerful tools in medical research and should be used throughout the development of all stroke and other interventions

Chromium supplementation in patients with type 2 diabetes and high risk of type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Introduction: Chromium is an essential trace mineral for carbohydrate and lipid metabolism, which is currently prescribed to control diabetes mellitus. Results of previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses of chromium supplementation and metabolic profiles in diabetes have been inconsistent. Aim: The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the effects on metabolic profiles and safety of chromium supplementation in type 2 diabetes mellitus and cholesterol. Methods: Literature searches in PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were made by use of related terms-keywords and randomized clinical trials during the period of 2000-2014. Results: Thirteen trials fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this systematic review. Total doses of Cr supplementation and brewer's yeast ranged from 42 to 1,000 µg/day, and duration of supplementation ranged from 30 to 120 days. The analysis indicated that there was a significant effect of chromium supplementation in diabetics on fasting plasma glucose with a weighted average effect size of -29.26 mg/dL, p = 0.01, CI 95% = -52.4 to -6.09; and on total cholesterol with a weighted average effect size of -6.7 mg/dL, p = 0.01, CI 95% = -11.88 to -1.53. Conclusions: The available evidence suggests favourable effects of chromium supplementation on glycaemic control in patients with diabetes. Chromium supplementation may additionally improve total cholesterol levels.

Treatment trials for neonatal seizures: the effect of design on sample size

Neonatal seizures are common in the neonatal intensive care unit. Clinicians treat these seizures with several anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) to reduce seizures in a neonate. Current AEDs exhibit sub-optimal efficacy and several randomized control trials (RCT) of novel AEDs are planned. The aim of this study was to measure the influence of trial design on the required sample size of a RCT. We used seizure time courses from 41 term neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy to build seizure treatment trial simulations. We used five outcome measures, three AED protocols, eight treatment delays from seizure onset (Td) and four levels of trial AED efficacy to simulate different RCTs. We performed power calculations for each RCT design and analysed the resultant sample size. We also assessed the rate of false positives, or placebo effect, in typical uncontrolled studies. We found that the false positive rate ranged from 5 to 85% of patients depending on RCT design. For controlled trials, the choice of outcome measure had the largest effect on sample size with median differences of 30.7 fold (IQR: 13.7–40.0) across a range of AED protocols, Td and trial AED efficacy (p<0.001). RCTs that compared the trial AED with positive controls required sample sizes with a median fold increase of 3.2 (IQR: 1.9–11.9; p<0.001). Delays in AED administration from seizure onset also increased the required sample size 2.1 fold (IQR: 1.7–2.9; p<0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that RCTs in neonates treated with hypothermia required a median fold increase in sample size of 2.6 (IQR: 2.4–3.0) compared to trials in normothermic neonates (p<0.001). These results show that RCT design has a profound influence on the required sample size. Trials that use a control group, appropriate outcome measure, and control for differences in Td between groups in analysis will be valid and minimise sample size.

The difference of Being in the early modern world: a relational-material approach to life in Scotland in the period of the witch trials

This thesis investigates how ways of being in different ontologies emerge from material and embodied practice. This general concern is explored through the particular case study of Scotland in the period of the witch trials (the 16th and 17th centuries C.E.). The field of early modern Scottish witchcraft studies has been active and dynamic over the past 15 years but its prioritisation of what people said over what they did leaves a clear gap for a situated and relational approach focusing upon materiality. Such an approach requires a move away from the Cartesian dichotomies of modern ontology to recognise past beliefs as real to those who experienced them, coconstitutive of embodiment and of the material worlds people inhabited. In theory, method and practice, this demands a different way of exploring past worlds to avoid flattening strange data. To this end, the study incorporates narratives and ‘disruptions’ – unique engagements with Contemporary Art which facilitate understanding by enabling the temporary suspension of disbelief. The methodology is iterative, tacking between material and written sources in order to better understand the heterogeneous assemblages of early modern (counter-) witchcraft. Previously separate areas of discourse are (re-)constituted into alternative ontic categories of newly-parallel materials. New interpretations of things, places, bodies and personhoods emerge, raising questions about early modern experiences of the world. Three thematic chapters explore different sets of collaborative agencies as they entwine into new things, co-fabricating a very different world. Moving between witch trial accounts, healing wells, infant burial grounds, animals, discipline artefacts and charms, the boundaries of all prove highly permeable. People, cloth and place bleed into one another through contact; trees and water emerge as powerful agents of magical-place-making; and people and animals meet to become single, hybrid-persons spread over two bodies. Life and death consistently emerge as protracted processes with the capacity to overlap and occur simultaneously in problematic ways. The research presented in this thesis establishes a new way of looking at the nature of Being as experienced by early modern Scots. This provides a foundation for further studies, which can draw in other materials not explored here such as communion wares and metal charms. Comparison with other early modern Western societies may also prove fruitful. Furthermore, the methodology may be suitable for application to other interdisciplinary projects incorporating historical and material evidence.

Efficacy of fungicides for the control of Fusarium head blight in wheat: cooperative trials results - 2014 crop season.

2016

Design of experiment in drug development: optimal allocations in multi-arm clinical trials and design space for multi-step processes

In this thesis, we deal with the design of experiments in the drug development process, focusing on the design of clinical trials for treatment comparisons (Part I) and the design of preclinical laboratory experiments for proteins development and manufacturing (Part II). In Part I we propose a multi-purpose design methodology for sequential clinical trials. We derived optimal allocations of patients to treatments for testing the efficacy of several experimental groups by also taking into account ethical considerations. We first consider exponential responses for survival trials and we then present a unified framework for heteroscedastic experimental groups that encompasses the general ANOVA set-up. The very good performance of the suggested optimal allocations, in terms of both inferential and ethical characteristics, are illustrated analytically and through several numerical examples, also performing comparisons with other designs proposed in the literature. Part II concerns the planning of experiments for processes composed of multiple steps in the context of preclinical drug development and manufacturing. Following the Quality by Design paradigm, the objective of the multi-step design strategy is the definition of the manufacturing design space of the whole process and, as we consider the interactions among the subsequent steps, our proposal ensures the quality and the safety of the final product, by enabling more flexibility and process robustness in the manufacturing.

Emotions in legal decisions: the construction of objective narratives in Italian criminal trials

Drawing on ethnographic data collected in Italian courts and prosecution offices, this dissertation offers new perspectives on legal decision-making by highlighting the importance of emotions for constructing and evaluating legal narratives. Focusing on criminal cases, it describes and dissects how judges and prosecutors use emotions in reflection and action tied to lay narratives and legal constraints. The analysis shows that legal professionals engage in different types of emotional dynamics when dealing with stories; first, they develop gut feelings, which are either endorsed or kept at distance by means of emotional reflexivity, to comply with legal ideals of objectivity and impartiality. Second, empathy emerges as a crucial tool to direct the interaction with lay people and to interpret legal prerequisites, such as credibility, and intent. Finally, the dissertation shows that lay stories lead legal professionals to become passionate and committed towards the correct application of the law, the restoration of the moral order, and the achievement of justice. In light of the empirical findings, this thesis strives to develop a theoretical understanding of legal decision-making as narrative work that includes emotional dynamics consistent with rational, objective action.

The Effect Of Soy Dietary Supplement And Low Dose Of Hormone Therapy On Main Cardiovascular Health Biomarkers: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

To assess the effects of a soy dietary supplement on the main biomarkers of cardiovascular health in postmenopausal women compared with the effects of low-dose hormone therapy (HT) and placebo. Double-blind, randomized and controlled intention-to-treat trial. Sixty healthy postmenopausal women, aged 40-60 years, 4.1 years mean time since menopause were recruited and randomly assigned to 3 groups: a soy dietary supplement group (isoflavone 90mg), a low-dose HT group (estradiol 1 mg plus noretisterone 0.5 mg) and a placebo group. Lipid profile, glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure and abdominal/hip ratio were evaluated in all the participants at baseline and after 16 weeks. Statistical analyses were performed using the χ2 test, Fisher's exact test, Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), paired Student's t-test and Wilcoxon test. After a 16-week intervention period, total cholesterol decreased 11.3% and LDL-cholesterol decreased 18.6% in the HT group, but both did not change in the soy dietary supplement and placebo groups. Values for triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure and abdominal/hip ratio did not change over time in any of the three groups. The use of dietary soy supplement did not show any significant favorable effect on cardiovascular health biomarkers compared with HT. The trial is registered at the Brazilian Clinical Trials Registry (Registro Brasileiro de Ensaios Clínicos - ReBEC), number RBR-76mm75.

The Real-life Experience With Cardiovascular Complications In The First Dose Of Fingolimod For Multiple Sclerosis.

Fingolimod is a new and efficient treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS). The drug administration requires special attention to the first dose, since cardiovascular adverse events can be observed during the initial six hours of fingolimod ingestion. The present study consisted of a review of cardiovascular data on 180 patients with MS receiving the first dose of fingolimod. The rate of bradycardia in these patients was higher than that observed in clinical trials with very strict inclusion criteria for patients. There were less than 10% of cases requiring special attention, but no fatal cases. All but one patient continued the treatment after this initial dose. This is the first report on real-life administration of fingolimod to Brazilian patients with MS, and one of the few studies with these characteristics in the world.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Key Issues In Inhibitor Management In Patients With Haemophilia.

12 Suppl 1

Post Hoc Analysis Of The Patricia Randomized Trial Of The Efficacy Of Human Papillomavirus Type 16 (hpv-16)/hpv-18 As04-adjuvanted Vaccine Against Incident And Persistent Infection With Nonvaccine Oncogenic Hpv Types Using An Alternative Multiplex Type-specific Pcr Assay For Hpv Dna.

The efficacy of the human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16)/HPV-18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against cervical infections with HPV in the Papilloma Trial against Cancer in Young Adults (PATRICIA) was evaluated using a combination of the broad-spectrum L1-based SPF10 PCR-DNA enzyme immunoassay (DEIA)/line probe assay (LiPA25) system with type-specific PCRs for HPV-16 and -18. Broad-spectrum PCR assays may underestimate the presence of HPV genotypes present at relatively low concentrations in multiple infections, due to competition between genotypes. Therefore, samples were retrospectively reanalyzed using a testing algorithm incorporating the SPF10 PCR-DEIA/LiPA25 plus a novel E6-based multiplex type-specific PCR and reverse hybridization assay (MPTS12 RHA), which permits detection of a panel of nine oncogenic HPV genotypes (types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59). For the vaccine against HPV types 16 and 18, there was no major impact on estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE) for incident or 6-month or 12-month persistent infections when the MPTS12 RHA was included in the testing algorithm versus estimates with the protocol-specified algorithm. However, the alternative testing algorithm showed greater sensitivity than the protocol-specified algorithm for detection of some nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types. More cases were gained in the control group than in the vaccine group, leading to higher point estimates of VE for 6-month and 12-month persistent infections for the nonvaccine oncogenic types included in the MPTS12 RHA assay (types 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59). This post hoc analysis indicates that the per-protocol testing algorithm used in PATRICIA underestimated the VE against some nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types and that the choice of the HPV DNA testing methodology is important for the evaluation of VE in clinical trials. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT00122681.).

Obstacle Crossing With Dual Tasking Is A Danger For Individuals With Alzheimer's Disease And For Healthy Older People.

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of dual tasking on obstacle crossing during walking by individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and by healthy older people. Thirty four elderly individuals (16 healthy subjects and 18 individuals with AD) were recruited to participate in this study. Three AD individuals and one control participant were excluded due to exclusion criteria. The participants were instructed to walk barefoot at their own speed along an 8 m long pathway. Each participant performed five trials for each condition (unobstructed walking, unobstructed walking with dual tasking, and obstacle crossing during walking with dual tasking). The trials were completely randomized for each participant. The mid-pathway stride was measured in the unobstructed walking trials and the stride that occurred during the obstacle avoidance was measured in the trials that involved obstacle crossing. The behavior of the healthy elderly subjects and individuals with AD was similar for obstacle crossing during walking with dual tasking. Both groups used the posture first strategy to prioritize stability and showed decreased attention to executive tasking while walking. Additionally, AD had a strong influence on the modifications that are made by the elderly while walking under different walking conditions.

Low-level Laser Therapy To The Mouse Femur Enhances The Fungicidal Response Of Neutrophils Against Paracoccidioides Brasiliensis.

Neutrophils (PMN) play a central role in host defense against the neglected fungal infection paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), which is caused by the dimorphic fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb). PCM is of major importance, especially in Latin America, and its treatment relies on the use of antifungal drugs. However, the course of treatment is lengthy, leading to side effects and even development of fungal resistance. The goal of the study was to use low-level laser therapy (LLLT) to stimulate PMN to fight Pb in vivo. Swiss mice with subcutaneous air pouches were inoculated with a virulent strain of Pb or fungal cell wall components (Zymosan), and then received LLLT (780 nm; 50 mW; 12.5 J/cm2; 30 seconds per point, giving a total energy of 0.5 J per point) on alternate days at two points on each hind leg. The aim was to reach the bone marrow in the femur with light. Non-irradiated animals were used as controls. The number and viability of the PMN that migrated to the inoculation site was assessed, as well as their ability to synthesize proteins, produce reactive oxygen species (ROS) and their fungicidal activity. The highly pure PMN populations obtained after 10 days of infection were also subsequently cultured in the presence of Pb for trials of protein production, evaluation of mitochondrial activity, ROS production and quantification of viable fungi growth. PMN from mice that received LLLT were more active metabolically, had higher fungicidal activity against Pb in vivo and also in vitro. The kinetics of neutrophil protein production also correlated with a more activated state. LLLT may be a safe and non-invasive approach to deal with PCM infection.