Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

General ranked set sampling for efficient treatment comparisons

In treatment comparison experiments, the treatment responses are often correlated with some concomitant variables which can be measured before or at the beginning of the experiments. In this article, we propose schemes for the assignment of experimental units that may greatly improve the efficiency of the comparison in such situations. The proposed schemes are based on general ranked set sampling. The relative efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the proposed schemes are studied and compared. It is found that some proposed schemes are always more efficient than the traditional simple random assignment scheme when the total cost is the same. Numerical studies show promising results using the proposed schemes.

Evaluation of growth and changes in body composition following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis

Early deficits in nutritional status that might require specific treatment and early response to nutritional therapy were studied longitudinally in 25 infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) diagnosed by neonatal screening, using anthropometric and research body composition methodology, and evaluation of pancreatic function. At the time of confirmed diagnosis (mean 5.4 weeks), body mass, length, total body fat (TBF), and total body potassium (TBK) were all significantly reduced. Following diagnosis and commencement of therapy there was a normalization of weight, length, and TBK by 6-12 months of age, indicating catch-up growth. But in some individuals the response was incomplete, and as a group, mean total body fat remained significantly lower than normal at 1 year of age. Seven of 25 (28%) were pancreatic sufficient at diagnosis, and all but one had evidence of declining pancreatic function requiring the institution of pancreatic enzyme therapy during the next 1-9 months. The median age of commencement of enzyme therapy was 10 weeks (range 5 weeks to 11 months). These longitudinal assessments emphasize the dynamic changes occurring in absorptive function, body composition, and nutritional status following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis and may reflect previously described abnormalities of energy metabolism in this age group. Abnormal body composition is evident in most CF infants following diagnosis by neonatal screening but pancreatic damage may still be evolving. We suggest that early active nutritional therapy and surveillance for changes in pancreatic function are warranted in CF infants diagnosed by neonatal screening.

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

Ginger (Zingiber officinale) autotetraploids with improved processing quality produced by an in vitro colchicine treatment

Ginger autotetraploids were produced by immersing shoot tips in a 0.5% w/v colchicine, 2% v/v dimethyl sulfoxide solution for 2 h. Stomatal measurements were used as an early indicator of ploidy differences in culture with mean stomata length of tetraploids (49.2 μm) being significantly larger than the diploid (38.8 µm). Of the 500 shoot tips treated, 2% were characterised as stable autotetraploid lines following field evaluation over several seasons. Results were confirmed with flow cytometry and, of the 7 lines evaluated for distinctness and uniformity, 6 were solid tetraploid mutants and 1 was a periclinal chimera. Significant differences were noted between individual tetraploid lines in terms of shoot length, leaf length, leaf width, size of rhizome sections (knob weight) and fibre content. The solid autotetraploid lines had significantly wider, greener leaves than the diploids, they had significantly fewer but thicker shoots and, although ‘Queensland’ (the diploid parent from which the tetraploids were derived) had a greater total rhizome mass at harvest, its knob size was significantly smaller. From the autotetraploid lines, one line was selected for commercial release as ‘Buderim Gold’. It compared the most favourably with ‘Queensland’ in terms of the aroma/flavour profile and fibre content at early harvest, and had consistently good rhizome yield. More importantly it produced large rhizome sections, resulting in a higher recovery of premium grade confectionery ginger and a more attractive fresh market product.

Evaluation of residence time on nitrogen oxides removal in non-thermal plasma reactor

Non-thermal plasma (NTP) has been introduced over the last few years as a promising after- treatment system for nitrogen oxides and particulate matter removal from diesel exhaust. NTP technology has not been commercialised as yet, due to its high rate of energy consumption. Therefore, it is important to seek out new methods to improve NTP performance. Residence time is a crucial parameter in engine exhaust emissions treatment. In this paper, different electrode shapes are analysed and the corresponding residence time and NOx removal efficiency are studied. An axisymmetric laminar model is used for obtaining residence time distribution numerically using FLUENT software. If the mean residence time in a NTP plasma reactor increases, there will be a corresponding increase in the reaction time and consequently the pollutant removal efficiency increases. Three different screw thread electrodes and a rod electrode are examined. The results show the advantage of screw thread electrodes in comparison with the rod electrode. Furthermore, between the screw thread electrodes, the electrode with the thread width of 1 mm has the highest NOx removal due to higher residence time and a greater number of micro-discharges. The results show that the residence time of the screw thread electrode with a thread width of 1 mm is 21% more than for the rod electrode.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Field evaluation of 64 rootstocks for growth and yield of 'Kensington Pride' mango

Despite an abundance of polyembryonic genotypes and the need for rootstocks that improve scion yield and productivity, simultaneous field testing of a wide range of mango (Mangifera indica L.) genotypes as rootstocks has not previously been reported. In this experiment, we examined the growth and yield of 'Kensington Pride' on 64 mango genotypes of diverse origin during the first four seasons of fruit production to identify those worth longer-term assessment. We also recorded morphological characteristics of seedlings of 46 of these genotypes in an attempt to relate these measures to subsequent field performance. Tree canopy development on the most vigorous rootstocks was almost double that on the least vigorous. Growth rates differed by more than 160%. Cumulative marketable yield ranged from 36 kg/tree for the lowest yielding rootstock to 181 kg/tree for the most productive. Yield efficiency also differed markedly among the 64 rootstocks with the best treatment being 3.5 times more efficient than the poorest treatment. No relationship was found between yield efficiency and tree size, suggesting it is possible to select highly efficient rootstocks of differing vigor. Two genotypes ('Brodie' and 'MYP') stood out as providing high yield efficiency with small tree size. A further two genotypes ('B' and 'Watertank') were identified as offering high yield efficiency and large tree size and should provide high early yields at traditional tree spacing. Efforts to relate the morphology of different genotype seedlings to subsequent performance as a rootstock showed that nursery performance of mango seedlings is no indication of their likely behavior as a rootstock. The economic cost of poor yields and low yield efficiencies during the early years of commercial orchard production provide a rationale for culling many of the rootstock treatments in this experiment and concentrating future assessment on the top ~20% of the 64 treatments. Of these, 'MYP', 'B', 'Watertank', 'Manzano', and 'Pancho' currently show the most promise.

Evaluation of a remote drafting system for regulating sheep access to supplement

Remote drafting technology now available for sheep makes possible targeted supplementation of individuals within a grazing flock. This system was evaluated by using 68 Merino wethers grazing dry-season, native Mitchell grass pasture (predominantly Astrebla spp.) as a group and receiving access to lupin grain through a remote drafter 0, 1, 2, 4 or 7 days/week for 8 weeks. The sole paddock watering point was separately fenced and access was via a one-way flow gate. Sheep exited the watering point through a remote drafter operated by solar power and were drafted by radio frequency identification (RFID) tag, according to treatment, either back into the paddock or into a common supplement yard where lupins were provided ad libitum in a self-feeder. Sheep were drafted into the supplement yard on only their first time through the drafter during the prescribed 24-h period and exited the supplement yard via one-way flow gates in their own time. The remote drafter operated with a high accuracy, with only 2.1% incorrect drafts recorded during the experimental period out of a total of 7027 sheep passes through the remote drafter. The actual number of accesses to supplement for each treatment group, in order, were generally less than that intended, i.e. 0.02, 0.69, 1.98, 3.35 and 6.04 days/week. Deviations from the intended number of accesses to supplement were mainly due to sheep not coming through to water on their allocated day of treatment access, although some instances were due to incorrect drafts. There was a non-linear response in growth rate to increased frequency of access to lupins with the growth rate response plateauing at similar to 3 actual accesses per week, corresponding to a growth rate of 72.5 g/head. day. This experiment has demonstrated the application of the remote drafting supplementation system for the first time under grazing conditions and with the drafter operated completely from solar power. The experiment demonstrates a growth response to increasing frequency of access to supplement and provides a starting point with which to begin to develop feeding strategies to achieve sheep weight-change targets.

Evaluation of Ustilago sporoboli-indici as a classical biological control agent for invasive Sporobolus grasses in Australia

Sporobolus pyramidalis, S. africanus, S. natalensis, S. fertilis and S. jacquemontii, known collectively as the weedy Sporobolus grasses, are exotic weeds causing serious economic losses in grazing areas along Australia's entire eastern coast. In one of the first attempts to provide biological control for a grass, the potential of a smut, Ustilago sporoboli-indici, as a biological control agent for all five weedy Sporobolus spp. found in Australia was evaluated in glasshouse studies. Application of basidiospores to 21-day-old Sporobolus seedlings and subsequent incubation in a moist chamber (26 °C, 90% RH, 48 h) resulted in infection of S. pyramidalis, S. africanus, S. natalensis and S. fertilis but not S. jacquemontii. Host-range trials with 13 native Australian Sporobolus spp. resulted in infection of four native species. Evaluation of damage caused by the smut on two Australian native and two weedy Sporobolus spp. showed that the total numbers of flowers infected for the four grasses were in the following order: S. creber > S. fertilis > S. elongatus > S. natalensis with percentage flower infections of 21%, 14%, 12% and 3%, respectively. Significant differences (P = 0.001) were found when the numbers of infected flowers caused by each treatment were compared. The infection of the four native Sporobolus spp. by the smut indicated that it was not sufficiently host specific for release in Australia and the organism was rejected as a potential biological control agent. The implications of these results are discussed.

Development and testing of an evaluation procedure for commercial manure additive products.

Manure additive products can be used to reduce odour emissions (OE) from livestock farms. The standardised evaluation of these manure additive products under specific farm conditions is important. In this study, the efficacy of a manure additive (WonderTreat(TM), CKLS, Inc., Hong-Kong) was assessed under Australian conditions utilising a combination of laboratory and field-scale evaluation techniques. As a first step, the efficacy of the manure additive was assessed in a laboratory-scale trial using a series of uniformly managed digesters and standard odour, liquor ammonia and hydrogen sulphide concentration measurement procedures. This showed that the addition of WonderTreat(TM) at the 'low dose rate' (LDR) (102.6 g m-2) used during the trial significantly, but only marginally (30%; P = 0.02) reduced the OE rate (mean 13.9 OU m-2 s-1) of anaerobic pig liquor relative to an untreated control (UC) (19.9 OU m-2 s-1). However, the 'high dose rate' (HDR) (205.3 g m-2) also assessed during the trial preformed similarly (19.7 OU m-2 s-1) to the UC. No statistically significant difference in the concentrations of a range of measured water quality variables at the 5% level was observed between the treatments or controls digesters. As a second step, a field-scale assessment of the manure additive was undertaken at a commercial piggery. Two piggery manure lagoons (each with approximately 2500 m2 surface area) were included in the study; one was treated with WonderTreat(TM) while the other was used as control. The efficacy of the treatment was assessed using olfactometric evaluation of odour samples collected from the surface of the pond using a dynamic wind tunnel and ancillary equipment. No statistically significant reduction in OE rate could be demonstrated (P = 0.35), partially due to the limited number of samples taken during the assessment. However, there was a numerical reduction in the average OE rate of the treatment pond (29 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1) compared to the control lagoon (38 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1).

Pre-release evaluation of the efficacy of the leaf-sucking bug Carvalhotingis visenda (Heteroptera: Tingidae) as a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

In classical weed biological control, assessing weed response to simulated herbivory is one option to assist in the prioritization of available agents and prediction of their potential efficacy. Previously reported simulated herbivory studies suggested that a specialist herbivore in the leaf-feeding guild is desirable as an effective biological control agent for cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), an environmental weed that is currently a target for biological control. In this study, we tested (i) whether the results from glasshouse-based simulated herbivory can be used to prioritise potential biological control agents by evaluating the impact of a leaf-sucking tingid bug Carvalhotingis visenda (Drake & Hambleton) (Hemiptera: Tingidae) in quarantine; and (ii) the likely effectiveness of low- and high-densities of the leaf-sucking tingid after its release in the field. The results suggest that a single generation of C. visenda has the potential to reduce leaf chlorophyll content significantly, resulting in reduced plant height and leaf biomass. However, the impact of one generation of tingid herbivory on below-ground plant components, including the roots and tuber size and biomass, were not significant. These findings are consistent with results obtained from a simulated herbivory trial, highlighting the potential role of simulated herbivory studies in agent prioritisation.

Evaluation of weed eradication programs: containment and extirpation

Weed eradication programs often require 10 years or more to achieve their objective. It is important that progress is evaluated on a regular basis so that programs that are 'on track' can be distinguished from those that are unlikely to succeed. Earlier research has addressed conformity of eradication programs to the delimitation criterion. In this paper evaluation in relation to the containment and extirpation criteria is considered. Because strong evidence of containment failure (i.e. spread from infestations targeted for eradication) is difficult to obtain, it generally will not be practicable to evaluate how effective eradication programs are at containing the target species. However, chronic failure of containment will be reflected in sustained increases in cumulative infested area and thus a failure to delimit a weed invasion. Evaluating the degree of conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria is therefore sufficient to give an appraisal of progress towards the eradication objective. A significant step towards eradication occurs when a weed is no longer readily detectable at an infested site, signalling entry to the monitoring phase. This transition will occur more quickly if reproduction is prevented consistently. Where an invasion consists of multiple infestations, the monitoring profile (frequency distribution of time since detection) provides a summary of the overall effectiveness of the eradication program in meeting the extirpation criterion. Eradication is generally claimed when the target species has not been detected for a period equal to or greater than its seed longevity, although there is often considerable uncertainty in estimates of the latter. Recently developed methods, which take into consideration the cost of continued monitoring vs. the potential cost of damage should a weed escape owing to premature cessation of an eradication program, can assist managers to decide when to terminate weed eradication programs.

Review of approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of weed biological control agents

We review key issues, available approaches and analyses to encourage and assist practitioners to develop sound plans to evaluate the effectiveness of weed biological control agents at various phases throughout a program. Assessing the effectiveness of prospective agents before release assists the selection process, while post-release evaluation aims to determine the extent that agents are alleviating the ecological, social and economic impacts of the weeds. Information gathered on weed impacts prior to the initiation of a biological control program is necessary to provide baseline data and devise performance targets against which the program can subsequently be evaluated. Detailed data on weed populations, associated plant communities and, in some instances ecosystem processes collected at representative sites in the introduced range several years before the release of agents can be compared with similar data collected later to assess agent effectiveness. Laboratory, glasshouse and field studies are typically used to assess agent effectiveness. While some approaches used for field studies may be influenced by confounding factors, manipulative experiments where agents are excluded (or included) using chemicals or cages are more robust but time-consuming and expensive to implement. Demographic modeling and benefit–cost analyses are increasingly being used to complement other studies. There is an obvious need for more investment in long-term post-release evaluation of agent effectiveness to rigorously document outcomes of biological control programs.

Random Breath Testing Operation and Effectiveness in 1987

• In December 1986 funds were approved to double the intensity of random breath testing (RBT) and provide publicity support for police efforts. These changes were considered necessary to make RBT effective. • RBT methods were changed in the metropolitan area to enable block testing (pulling over a block of traffic rather than one or two cars), deployment of police to cut off escape routes, and testing by traffic patrols in all police subdivisions. Additional operators were trained for country RBT. • A publicity campaign was developed, aimed mainly at male drivers aged 18-50. The campaign consisted of the “cardsharp” television commercials, radio commercials, newspaper articles, posters and pamphlets. • Increased testing and the publicity campaigns were launched on 10 April 1987. • Police tests increased by 92.5% in May – December 1987, compared with the same period in the previous four years. • The detection rate for drinking drivers picked up by police who were cutting off escape routes was comparatively high, indicating that drivers were attempting to avoid RBT, and that this police method was effective at detecting these drivers. • A telephone survey indicated that drivers were aware of the messages of the publicity campaign. • The telephone survey also indicated that the target group had been exposed to high levels of RBT, as planned, and that fear of apprehension was the major factor deterring them from drink driving. • A roadside survey of driver blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) by the University of Adelaide’s Road Accident Research Unit (RARU) showed that, between 10p.m. and 3a.m., the proportion of drivers in Adelaide with a BAC greater than or equal to 0/08 decreased by 42%. • Drivers under 21 were identified as a possible problem area. • Fatalities in the twelve month period commencing May 1987 decreased by 18% in comparison with the previous twelve month period, and by 13% in comparison with the average of the previous two twelve month periods (commencing May 1985 and May 1986). There are indications that this trend is continuing. • It is concluded that the increase in RBT, plus publicity, was successful in achieving its aims of reductions in drink driving and accidents.