The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Demographic profile of blood donors at three major Brazilian blood centers: results from the International REDS-II study, 2007 to 2008

BACKGROUND: The profile of blood donors changed dramatically in Brazil over the past 20 years, from remunerated to nonremunerated and then from replacement to community donors. Donor demographic data from three major blood centers establish current donation profiles in Brazil, serving as baseline for future analyses and tracking longitudinal changes in donor characteristics. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were extracted from the blood center, compiled in a data warehouse, and analyzed. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian census. RESULTS: During 2007 to 2008, there were 615,379 blood donations from 410,423 donors. A total of 426,142 (69.2%) were from repeat (Rpt) donors and 189,237 (30.8%) were from first-time (FT) donors. Twenty percent of FT donors returned to donate in the period. FT donors were more likely to be younger, and Rpt donors were more likely to be community donors. All were predominantly male. Replacement donors still represent 50% of FT and 30% of Rpt donors. The mean percentage of the potentially general population who were donors was approximately 1.2% for the three centers (0.7, 1.5, and 3.1%). Adjusting for the catchment`s area, the first two were 2.1 and 1.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Donors in the three Brazilian centers tended to be younger with a higher proportion of males than in the general population. Donation rates were lower than desirable. There were substantial differences in sex, age, and community/replacement status by center. Studies on the safety, donation frequencies, and motivations of donors are in progress to orient efforts to enhance the availability of blood.

Perfectionism and sensory phenomena: phenotypic components of obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate how perfectionism and sensory phenomena (SP) interact as possible phenotypic components of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: Forty-seven adult outpatients, meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for OCD, and a control group of 41 community subjects were assessed using the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale (FM PS), the University of Sao Paulo-Sensory Phenomena Scale, and other standard measures of OCD severity. Results: Three of the FMPS subscales (""concern over mistakes,"" ""doubts about action,"" and ""parental criticism"") were significantly different between OCD patients and control subjects. All subtypes of SP were significantly more frequent and more severe in OCD than in control subjects. The ""incompleteness"" subtype of SP was associated with high scores on all dimensions of the FMPS, whereas the ""just-right"" subtype of SP was only associated with ""doubts about action,"" ""personal standards,"" and ""organization"" subscales of the FMPS. Conclusions: Presence and severity of SP and specific elements of perfectionism clearly distinguish OCD patients from healthy control subjects. Some SP subtypes are associated with specific FPMS subscale scores, whereas others are not. These results emphasize the relevance of assessing different subtypes of perfectionism and SP in OCD patients as important subcomponents of the OCD phenotype. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The medial forebrain bundle mediates cardiovascular responses to electrical stimulation of the medial prefrontal cortex

The medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) is involved in cardiovascular control. MPFC electrical stimulation has been reported to cause depressor and bradycardic responses in anesthetized rats. Although the pathway involved is yet unknown, there is evidence indicating the existence of a relay in the lateral hypothalamus (LH). The medial forebrain bundle (MFB) that courses in the lateral portion of the LH carries the vast majority of telencephalic afferent as well efferent projections, including those from the MPFC. To evaluate if the hypotensive pathway originating in the MPFC courses the MFB, we studied the effect of coronal or sagittal knife cuts through the LH and other brain areas on the cardiovascular responses to MPFC electrical stimulation. Knife cuts were performed using blades I to 6 mm wide. Results indicate that the neural pathway descending from the MFB decussates early in the vicinity of MPFC, crossing the midline within the corpus callosurn and yielding two descending pathways that travel rostro-caudally in the lateral portion of the LH, within the MFB. The decussation was confirmed by histological analysis of brain sections processed after the injection of biotinilated dextran amine in the site of the stimulation in the MPFC. Because knife cuts through the LH ipsilateral had minimal effects on the cardiovascular responses and knife cuts performed contralateral to the stimulated MPFC had no effect on the response to MPFC stimulation, data indicate that the contralateral limb of the pathway may be only activated as an alternative pathway when the ipsilateral pathway is blocked. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lo-Fi matchmaking: A study of social pairing for backpackers

It is technically feasible for mobile social software such as pairing or ‘matchmaking’ systems to introduce people to others and assist information exchange. However, little is known about the social structure of many mobile communities or why they would want such pairing systems. While engaged in other work determining requirements for a mobile travel assistant we saw a potentially useful application for a pairing system to facilitate the exchange of travel information between backpackers. To explore this area, we designed two studies involving usage of a low-fidelity role prototype of a social pairing system for backpackers. Backpackers rated the utility of different pairing types, and provided feedback on the social implications of being paired based on travel histories. Practical usage of the social network pairing activity and the implications of broader societal usage are discussed.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Valuation of tourism's natural resources

Discusses the implications of the economic valuation of natural resources used for tourism and relates this valuation to the concept of total economic valuation. It demonstrates how applications of the concept of total economic valuation can be supportive of the conservation of natural resources used for tourism. Techniques for valuing tourism’s natural resources are then outlined and critically evaluated. Consideration is given to travel cost methods, contingent valuation methods, and hedonic pricing approaches before concentrating on current developments of valuation techniques, such as choice modelling. The general limitations of existing methods are considered and it is argued that more attention should be given to developing guidelines that will identify ‘optimally imperfect methods’. An overall assessment concludes this article.

Economics of wildlife tourism

After introducing the importance of the topic, we examine the economic impacts of wildlife tourism on income and employment as an indicator of the importance of this form of tourism. While such indicators can be important politically and to particular interest groups, they are shown to be an inadequate guide to the economic use and conservation of resources, including wildlife used in tourism. One reason for this (amongst others) is that total economic value must be taken into account in determining economic resource use and this is shown to be quite important in the case of wildlife species. Empirical procedures, such as use of the travel cost method and stated preference methods (for example, contingent valuation) are outlined and the way in which they can be used for determining the optimal economic allocation of land and other resources for wildlife tourism is explained. Economic implications and limitations of some empirical estimates of the importance of wildlife tourism are discussed. This leads on to a consideration of the purpose and usefulness of using economic instruments to manage wildlife tourism.

Linking policies for biodiversity conservation with advances in behavioural economics

Global biodiversity loss and its consequences for human welfare and sustainable development have become major concerns. Economists have, therefore, given increasing attention to the policy issues involved in the management of genetic resources. To do so, they often apply empirical methods developed in behavioral and experimental economics to estimate economic values placed on genetic resources. This trend away from almost exclusive dependence on axiomatic methods is welcomed. However, major valuation methods used in behavioral economics raise new scientific challenges. Possibly the most important of these include deficiencies in the knowledge of the public (and researchers) about genetic resources, implications for the formation of values of supplying information to focal individuals, and limits to rationality. These issues are explored for stated-preference techniques of valuation (e.g., contingent valuation) as well as revealed preference techniques, especially the travel cost method. They are illustrated by Australian and Asian examples. Taking into account behavioral and psychological models and empirical evidence, particular attention is given to how elicitation of preferences, and supply of information to individuals, influences their preferences about biodiversity. Policy consequences are outlined.

Refusal of treatment

Patients' thoughts, feelings and desires are communicated in a variety of ways, and require sympathetic, critical interpretation. Patients need clear, evidence-based medical information so that they can make their own decisions about whether to consent to or refuse medical treatment. Treatment refusal may provide an opportunity to introduce patients to advance care planning. Unconscious motivations in doctors may obstruct good clinical decision-making. Although respect for the patient's responsibility to make healthcare decisions should be a condition of the clinical relationship, healthcare decision-making is a collaborative process.

Breeding for low input conditions and consequences for participatory plant breeding: Examples from tropical maize and wheat

Participatory plant breeding (PPB) has been suggested as an effective alternative to formal plant breeding (FPB) as a breeding strategy for achieving productivity gains under low input conditions. With genetic progress through PPB and FPB being determined by the same genetic variables, the likelihood of success of PPB approaches applied in low input target conditions was analyzed using two case studies from FPB that have resulted in significant productivity gains under low input conditions: (1) breeding tropical maize for low input conditions by CIMMYT, and (2) breeding of spring wheat for the highly variable low input rainfed farming systems in Australia. In both cases, genetic improvement was an outcome of long-term investment in a sustained research effort aimed at understanding the detail of the important environmental constraints to productivity and the plant requirements for improved adaptation to the identified constraints, followed up by the design and continued evaluation of efficient breeding strategies. The breeding strategies used differed between the two case studies but were consistent in their attention to the key determinants of response to selection: (1) ensuring adequate sources of genetic variation and high selection pressures for the important traits at all stages of the breeding program, (2) use of experimental procedures to achieve high levels of heritability in the breeding trials, and (3) testing strategies that achieved a high genetic correlation between performance of germplasm in the breeding trials and under on-farm conditions. The implications of the outcomes from these FPB case studies for realizing the positive motivations for adopting PPB strategies are discussed with particular reference for low input target environment conditions.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social structure in migrating humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

Although largely solitary, humpback whales exhibit a number of behaviours where individuals co-operate with one another, for example during bubble net feeding. Such cases could be due to reciprocal altruism brought on by exceptional circumstances, for example the presence of abundant shoaling fish. An alternative explanation is that these behaviours have evolved through kin selection. With little restriction to either communication or movement, diffuse groups of relatives could maintain some form of social organization without the need to travel in tight-nit units. To try to distinguish between these hypotheses, we took advantage of the fact that migrating humpback whales often swim together in small groups. If kin selection is important in humpback whale biology, these groups should be enriched for relatives. Consequently, we analysed biopsy samples from 57 groups of humpback whales migrating off Eastern Australia in 1992. A total of 142 whales were screened for eight microsatellite markers. Mitochondrial DNA sequences (371 bp) were also used to verify and assist kinship identification. Our data add support to the notion that mothers travel with their offspring for the first year of the calf's life. However, beyond the presence of mother-calf/yearling pairs, no obvious relatedness pattern was found among whales sampled either in the same pod or on the same day. Levels of relatedness did not vary between migratory phases (towards or away from the breeding ground), nor between the two sexes considered either overall or in the north or south migrations separately. These findings suggest that, if any social organization does exist, it is formed transiently when needed rather than being a constant feature of the population, and hence is more likely based on reciprocal altruism than kin selection.

The impact of participation in activities while on vacation on senior's psychological well-being: A path model application

This article extends earlier research regarding the relationships between senior travelers’ participation in activities while on vacation, their overall satisfaction with their travel experiences, and their psychological well-being. A path model was developed to depict the direct and indirect relationships between these variables by using a sample of senior tourists traveling on North American escorted tour itineraries. Whereas the direct effect accounted for 98% of the relationships between the senior tourists’ levels of participation in activities and their psychological well-being, the indirect effect was negligible. The study concluded that senior tourists’activity levels were significantly related to their psychological well-being, but their satisfaction with the tours was not.