Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation

Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.

Recent Advances in Adaptive Sampling and Reconstruction for Monte Carlo Rendering

Monte Carlo integration is firmly established as the basis for most practical realistic image synthesis algorithms because of its flexibility and generality. However, the visual quality of rendered images often suffers from estimator variance, which appears as visually distracting noise. Adaptive sampling and reconstruction algorithms reduce variance by controlling the sampling density and aggregating samples in a reconstruction step, possibly over large image regions. In this paper we survey recent advances in this area. We distinguish between “a priori” methods that analyze the light transport equations and derive sampling rates and reconstruction filters from this analysis, and “a posteriori” methods that apply statistical techniques to sets of samples to drive the adaptive sampling and reconstruction process. They typically estimate the errors of several reconstruction filters, and select the best filter locally to minimize error. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of recent state-of-the-art techniques, and provide visual and quantitative comparisons. Some of these techniques are proving useful in real-world applications, and we aim to provide an overview for practitioners and researchers to assess these approaches. In addition, we discuss directions for potential further improvements.

Matching Social and Ecological Systems in Complex Ocean Fisheries

This paper considers ocean fisheries as complex adaptive systems and addresses the question of how human institutions might be best matched to their structure and function. Ocean ecosystems operate at multiple scales, but the management of fisheries tends to be aimed at a single species considered at a single broad scale. The paper argues that this mismatch of ecological and management scale makes it difficult to address the fine-scale aspects of ocean ecosystems, and leads to fishing rights and strategies that tend to erode the underlying structure of populations and the system itself. A successful transition to ecosystem-based management will require institutions better able to economize on the acquisition of feedback about the impact of human activities. This is likely to be achieved by multiscale institutions whose organization mirrors the spatial organization of the ecosystem and whose communications occur through a polycentric network. Better feedback will allow the exploration of fine-scale science and the employment of fine-scale fishing restraints, better adapted to the behavior of fish and habitat. The scale and scope of individual fishing rights also needs to be congruent with the spatial structure of the ecosystem. Place-based rights can be expected to create a longer private planning horizon as well as stronger incentives for the private and public acquisition of system relevant knowledge.

Cooperation & Competition Between Navigation Systems in the Rat Brain: The Role of the Hippocampus and Striatum During a Dissociative Maze Task

While many tend to think of memory systems in the brain as a single process, in reality several experiments have supported multiple dissociations of different forms of learning, such as spatial learning and response learning. In both humans and rats, the hippocampus has long been shown to be specialized in the storage of spatial and contextual memory whereas the striatum is associated with motor responses and habitual behaviors. Previous studies have examined how damage to hippocampus or striatum has affected the acquisition of either a spatial or response navigation task. However even in a very familiar environment organisms must continuously switch between place and response strategies depending upon circumstances. The current research investigates how these two brain systems interact under normal conditions to produce navigational behavior. Rats were tested using a task developed by Jacobson and colleagues (2006) in which the two types of navigation could be controlled and studied simultaneously. Rats were trained to solve a plus maze using both a spatial and a response strategy. A cue (flashing light) was employed to indicate the correct strategy on a given trial. When no light was present, the animals were rewarded for making a 90º right turn (motor response). When the light was on, the animals were rewarded for going to a specific goal location (place strategy). After learning the task, animals had a sham surgery or dorsal striatum or hippocampus damaged. In order to investigate the individual role of each brain system and evaluate whether these brain regions compete or cooperate for control over strategy, we utilized a within-animal comparisons. The configuration of the maze allowed for the comparison of behavior in individual animals before and after specific brain areas were damaged. Animals with hippocampal lesions showed selective deficits on place trials after surgery and learned the reversal of the motor response more rapidly than striatal lesioned or sham rats. Unlike previous findings regarding maze learning, animals with striatal lesions showed deficits in both place and response trials and had difficulty learning the reversal of motor response. Therefore, the effects of lesions on the ability to switch back and forth between strategies were more complex than previously suggested. This work may reveal important new insight on the integration of hippocampal and striatal learning systems, and facilitate a better understanding of the brain dynamics underlying similar navigational processes in humans.

Viability of enteric bacterial pathogens in transport media

Bacterial pathogens such as enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Salmonella, and Campylobacter spp. are associated with up to 80% of diarrheal illness to travelers from developed countries to developing countries. In order to study acute gastrointestinal diseases, researchers from developed countries such as the United States rely on transporting clinical specimens from the developing countries to laboratories in the U.S. in transport media systems. There are few commercially available transport media systems cited in the literature or designated by transport system manufacturers for the transport of enteric bacteria. Therefore a laboratory-based study was conducted to assess three commercial available transport media systems, two gel swabs and one liquid vial, to determine the most appropriate for the maintenance and recovery of common enteric bacterial pathogens. A total of 13 bacterial enteropathogens were recovered from 25°C and 4°C storage temperatures at time points up to 21 days. The results demonstrated that the gel swab and liquid vial transport systems performed similarly for all isolates at both temperatures. All three transport media systems struggled to maintain the isolates at recoverable concentrations when stored at 4°C and it is recommended that isolates be stored at 25°C in transport media systems. Lastly, swab transport systems are recommend for transport since they are small and easy to pack, resist leakage, and are less expensive than similarly performing liquid vial transport media systems.^

SEVERE HEAD TRAUMA, EMERGENCY TRANSPORT, AND PATIENT OUTCOME

Trauma and severe head injuries are important issues because they are prevalent, because they occur predominantly in the young, and because variations in clinical management may matter. Trauma is the leading cause of death for those under age 40. The focus of this head injury study is to determine if variations in time from the scene of accident to a trauma center hospital makes a difference in patient outcomes.^ A trauma registry is maintained in the Houston-Galveston area and includes all patients admitted to any one of three trauma center hospitals with mild or severe head injuries. A study cohort, derived from the Registry, includes 254 severe head injury cases, for 1980, with a Glasgow Coma Score of 8 or less.^ Multiple influences relate to patient outcomes from severe head injury. Two primary variables and four confounding variables are identified, including time to emergency room, time to intubation, patient age, severity of injury, type of injury and mode of transport to the emergency room. Regression analysis, analysis of variance, and chi-square analysis were the principal statistical methods utilized.^ Analysis indicates that within an urban setting, with a four-hour time span, variations in time to emergency room do not provide any strong influence or predictive value to patient outcome. However, data are suggestive that at longer time periods there is a negative influence on outcomes. Age is influential only when the older group (55-64) is included. Mode of transport (helicopter or ambulance) did not indicate any significant difference in outcome.^ In a multivariate regression model, outcomes are influenced primarily by severity of injury and age which explain 36% (R('2)) of variance. Inclusion of time to emergency room, time to intubation, transport mode and type injury add only 4% (R('2)) additional contribution to explaining variation in patient outcome.^ The research concludes that since the group most at risk to head trauma is the young adult male involved in automobile/motorcycle accidents, more may be gained by modifying driving habits and other preventive measures. Continuous clinical and evaluative research are required to provide updated clinical wisdom in patient management and trauma treatment protocols. A National Institute of Trauma may be required to develop a national public policy and evaluate the many medical, behavioral and social changes required to cope with the country's number 3 killer and the primary killer of young adults.^

Grain entrainment and transport rates of magnetic minerals of coastal sediment samples from the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand

Heavy (magnetic & non-magnetic) minerals are found concentrated by natural processes in many fluvial, estuarine, coastal and shelf environments with a potential to form economic placer deposits. Understanding the processes of heavy mineral transport and enrichment is prerequisite to interpret sediment magnetic properties in terms of hydro- and sediment dynamics. In this study, we combine rock magnetic and sedimentological laboratory measurements with numerical 3D discrete element models to investigate differential grain entrainment and transport rates of magnetic minerals in a range of coastal environments (riverbed, mouth, estuary, beach and near-shore). We analyzed grain-size distributions of representative bulk samples and their magnetic mineral fractions to relate grain-size modes to respective transport modes (traction, saltation, suspension). Rock magnetic measurements showed that distribution shapes, population sizes and grain-size offsets of bulk and magnetic mineral fractions hold information on the transport conditions and enrichment process in each depositional environment. A downstream decrease in magnetite grain size and an increase in magnetite concentration was observed from riverine source to marine sink environments. Lower flow velocities permit differential settling of light and heavy mineral grains creating heavy mineral enriched zones in estuary settings, while lighter minerals are washed out further into the sea. Numerical model results showed that higher heavy mineral concentrations in the bed increased the erosion rate and enhancing heavy mineral enrichment. In beach environments where sediments contained light and heavy mineral grains of equivalent grain sizes, the bed was found to be more stable with negligible amount of erosion compared to other bed compositions. Heavy mineral transport rates calculated for four different bed compositions showed that increasing heavy mineral content in the bed decreased the transport rate. There is always a lag in transport between light and heavy minerals which increases with higher heavy mineral concentration in all tested bed compositions. The results of laboratory experiments were validated by numerical models and showed good agreement. We demonstrate that the presented approach bears the potential to investigate heavy mineral enrichment processes in a wide range of sedimentary settings.

The location of manufacturing firms and imperfect information in transport market

It is well know that transport charges are not symmetric: fronthaul and backhaul costs on a route may differ, because they are affected by the distribution of economic acitivities. This paper develops a two-regional general equilibrium model in which transport costs are determined endogenously as a result of a search and matching process. It is shown that economies or diseconomies of transport density emerge, depending on the search costs of transport firms and the relative importance of the possibility of backhaul transportation. It is found that the symmetry of the distribution of economic activity may break owing to economies of transport density when the additional search costs are small enough.

Spatial price equilibrium and the transport sector : a trade-consistent SCGE model

This paper presents a framework for an SCGE model that is compatible with the Armington assumption and explicitly considers transport activities. In the model, the trade coefficient takes the form of a potential function,and the equilibrium market price becomes similar to the price index of varietal goods in the context of new economic geography (NEG). The features of the model are investigated by using the minimal setting, which comprises two non-transport sectors and three regions. Because transport costs are given exogenously to facilitate study of their impacts, commodity prices are also determined relative to them. The model can be described as a system of homogeneous equations, where an output in one region can arbitrarily be determined similarly as a price in the Walrasian equilibrium. The model closure is sensitive to formulation consistency so that homogeneity of the system would be lost by use of an alternative form of trade coefficients.

A Model-Based Monitoring Architecture for Heterogeneous Enterprise Services and Information Systems

Runtime management of distributed information systems is a complex and costly activity. One of the main challenges that must be addressed is obtaining a complete and updated view of all the managed runtime resources. This article presents a monitoring architecture for heterogeneous and distributed information systems. It is composed of two elements: an information model and an agent infrastructure. The model negates the complexity and variability of these systems and enables the abstraction over non-relevant details. The infrastructure uses this information model to monitor and manage the modeled environment, performing and detecting changes in execution time. The agents infrastructure is further detailed and its components and the relationships between them are explained. Moreover, the proposal is validated through a set of agents that instrument the JEE Glassfish application server, paying special attention to support distributed configuration scenarios.

Evaluating the achievements and impacts of EC framework programme transport projects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present what kind of elements and evaluation methods should be included into a framework for evaluating the achievements and impacts of transport projects supported in EC Framework Programmes (FP). Further, the paper discusses the possibilities of such an evaluation framework in producing recommendations regarding future transport research and policy objectives as well as mutual learning for the basis of strategic long term planning. Methods The paper describes the two-dimensional evaluation methodology developed in the course of the FP7 METRONOME project. The dimensions are: (1) achievement of project objectives and targets in different levels and (2) research project impacts according to four impact groups. The methodology uses four complementary approaches in evaluation, namely evaluation matrices, coordinator questionnaires, lead user interviews and workshops. Results Based on the methodology testing, with a sample of FP5 and FP6 projects, the main results relating to the rationale, implementation and achievements of FP projects is presented. In general, achievement of objectives in both FPs was good. Strongest impacts were identified within the impact group of management and co-ordination. Also scientific and end-user impacts of the projects were adequate, but wider societal impacts quite modest. The paper concludes with a discussion both on the theoretical and practical implications of the proposed methodology and by presenting some relevant future research needs.

New methods for the estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model based extended Kalman filter and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use.

Gi2MO: Interoperability, Linking and Filtering in Idea Management Systems

This thesis proposes how to apply the Semantic Web tech- nologies for the Idea Management Systems to deliver a solution to knowl- edge management and information over ow problems. Firstly, the aim is to present a model that introduces rich metadata annotations and their usage in the domain of Idea Management Systems. Furthermore, the the- sis shall investigate how to link innovation data with information from other systems and use it to categorize and lter out the most valuable elements. In addition, the thesis presents a Generic Idea and Innovation Management Ontology (Gi2MO) and aims to back its creation with a set of case studies followed by evaluations that prove how Semantic Web can work as tool to create new opportunities and leverage the contemporary Idea Management legacy systems into the next level.

On the specification and testing of inverters for stand-alone PV systems

Inverter features are reviewed from a PV systems perspective, with a view to contributing to possible codes, procurement specifications and testing procedures, in order to assure the technical quality of these systems. A laboratory testing campaign has been carried out on a representative set of sixteen currently available inverters and a set of the most common AC appliances. The results of the tests are discussed with the aim of divulging the particular features of operating AC appliances in PV systems and the provisions to be taken into account in PV system design. The development of testing procedures has followed the motto ?keep it as simple as possible?, in order to make their application easier in conventional laboratories in developing countries.

A syntactic approach to combining functional notation, lazy evaluation, and higher-order in LP systems

Nondeterminism and partially instantiated data structures give logic programming expressive power beyond that of functional programming. However, functional programming often provides convenient syntactic features, such as having a designated implicit output argument, which allow function cali nesting and sometimes results in more compact code. Functional programming also sometimes allows a more direct encoding of lazy evaluation, with its ability to deal with infinite data structures. We present a syntactic functional extensión, used in the Ciao system, which can be implemented in ISO-standard Prolog systems and covers function application, predefined evaluable functors, functional definitions, quoting, and lazy evaluation. The extensión is also composable with higher-order features and can be combined with other extensions to ISO-Prolog such as constraints. We also highlight the features of the Ciao system which help implementation and present some data on the overhead of using lazy evaluation with respect to eager evaluation.