A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Linguistic and cognitive motivations for the typological primacy model of third language (L3) transfer: considering the role of timing of acquisition and proficiency in the previous languages

This article elucidates the Typological Primacy Model (TPM; Rothman, 2010, 2011, 2013) for the initial stages of adult third language (L3) morphosyntactic transfer, addressing questions that stem from the model and its application. The TPM maintains that structural proximity between the L3 and the L1 and/or the L2 determines L3 transfer. In addition to demonstrating empirical support for the TPM, this article articulates a proposal for how the mind unconsciously determines typological (structural) proximity based on linguistic cues from the L3 input stream used by the parser early on to determine holistic transfer of one previous (the L1 or the L2) system. This articulated version of the TPM is motivated by argumentation appealing to cognitive and linguistic factors. Finally, in line with the general tenets of the TPM, I ponder if and why L3 transfer might obtain differently depending on the type of bilingual (e.g. early vs. late) and proficiency level of bilingualism involved in the L3 process.

Dysregulation of REST-regulated coding and non-coding RNAs in a cellular model of Huntington's disease

Huntingtin (Htt) protein interacts with many transcriptional regulators, with widespread disruption to the transcriptome in Huntington's disease (HD) brought about by altered interactions with the mutant Htt (muHtt) protein. Repressor Element-1 Silencing Transcription Factor (REST) is a repressor whose association with Htt in the cytoplasm is disrupted in HD, leading to increased nuclear REST and concomitant repression of several neuronal-specific genes, including brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf). Here, we explored a wide set of HD dysregulated genes to identify direct REST targets whose expression is altered in a cellular model of HD but that can be rescued by knock-down of REST activity. We found many direct REST target genes encoding proteins important for nervous system development, including a cohort involved in synaptic transmission, at least two of which can be rescued at the protein level by REST knock-down. We also identified several microRNAs (miRNAs) whose aberrant repression is directly mediated by REST, including miR-137, which has not previously been shown to be a direct REST target in mouse. These data provide evidence of the contribution of inappropriate REST-mediated transcriptional repression to the widespread changes in coding and non-coding gene expression in a cellular model of HD that may affect normal neuronal function and survival.

Rescue of gene expression by modified REST decoy oligonucleotides in a cellular model of Huntington's disease

Transcriptional dysfunction is a prominent hallmark of Huntington's disease (HD). Several transcription factors have been implicated in the aetiology of HD progression and one of the most prominent is repressor element 1 (RE1) silencing transcription factor (REST). REST is a global repressor of neuronal gene expression and in the presence of mutant Huntingtin increased nuclear REST levels lead to elevated RE1 occupancy and a concomitant increase in target gene repression, including brain-derived neurotrophic factor. It is of great interest to devise strategies to reverse transcriptional dysregulation caused by increased nuclear REST and determine the consequences in HD. Thus far, such strategies have involved RNAi or mutant REST constructs. Decoys are double-stranded oligodeoxynucleotides corresponding to the DNA-binding element of a transcription factor and act to sequester it, thereby abrogating its transcriptional activity. Here, we report the use of a novel decoy strategy to rescue REST target gene expression in a cellular model of HD. We show that delivery of the decoy in cells expressing mutant Huntingtin leads to its specific interaction with REST, a reduction in REST occupancy of RE1s and rescue of target gene expression, including Bdnf. These data point to an alternative strategy for rebalancing the transcriptional dysregulation in HD.

A continuum model of melt pond evolution on Arctic sea ice

[1] During the Northern Hemisphere summer, absorbed solar radiation melts snow and the upper surface of Arctic sea ice to generate meltwater that accumulates in ponds. The melt ponds reduce the albedo of the sea ice cover during the melting season, with a significant impact on the heat and mass budget of the sea ice and the upper ocean. We have developed a model, designed to be suitable for inclusion into a global circulation model (GCM), which simulates the formation and evolution of the melt pond cover. In order to be compatible with existing GCM sea ice models, our melt pond model builds upon the existing theory of the evolution of the sea ice thickness distribution. Since this theory does not describe the topography of the ice cover, which is crucial to determining the location, extent, and depth of individual ponds, we have needed to introduce some assumptions. We describe our model, present calculations and a sensitivity analysis, and discuss our results.

A mathematical model of crystallization in an emulsion

A mathematical model incorporating many of the important processes at work in the crystallization of emulsions is presented. The model describes nucleation within the discontinuous domain of an emulsion, precipitation in the continuous domain, transport of monomers between the two domains, and formation and subsequent growth of crystals in both domains. The model is formulated as an autonomous system of nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations. The description of nucleation and precipitation is based upon the Becker–Döring equations of classical nucleation theory. A particular feature of the model is that the number of particles of all species present is explicitly conserved; this differs from work that employs Arrhenius descriptions of nucleation rate. Since the model includes many physical effects, it is analyzed in stages so that the role of each process may be understood. When precipitation occurs in the continuous domain, the concentration of monomers falls below the equilibrium concentration at the surface of the drops of the discontinuous domain. This leads to a transport of monomers from the drops into the continuous domain that are then incorporated into crystals and nuclei. Since the formation of crystals is irreversible and their subsequent growth inevitable, crystals forming in the continuous domain effectively act as a sink for monomers “sucking” monomers from the drops. In this case, numerical calculations are presented which are consistent with experimental observations. In the case in which critical crystal formation does not occur, the stationary solution is found and a linear stability analysis is performed. Bifurcation diagrams describing the loci of stationary solutions, which may be multiple, are numerically calculated.

A model of melt pond evolution on sea ice

A one-dimensional, thermodynamic, and radiative model of a melt pond on sea ice is presented that explicitly treats the melt pond as an extra phase. A two-stream radiation model, which allows albedo to be determined from bulk optical properties, and a parameterization of the summertime evolution of optical properties, is used. Heat transport within the sea ice is described using an equation describing heat transport in a mushy layer of a binary alloy (salt water). The model is tested by comparison of numerical simulations with SHEBA data and previous modeling. The presence of melt ponds on the sea ice surface is demonstrated to have a significant effect on the heat and mass balance. Sensitivity tests indicate that the maximum melt pond depth is highly sensitive to optical parameters and drainage. INDEX TERMS: 4207 Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography; 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4299 Oceanography: General: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: sea ice, melt pond, albedo, Arctic Ocean, radiation model, thermodynamic

A continuum anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics

We develop the essential ingredients of a new, continuum and anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics designed for eventual use in climate simulation. These ingredients are a constitutive law for sea-ice stress, relating stress to the material properties of sea ice and to internal variables describing the sea-ice state, and equations describing the evolution of these variables. The sea-ice cover is treated as a densely flawed two-dimensional continuum consisting of a uniform field of thick ice that is uniformly permeated with narrow linear regions of thinner ice called leads. Lead orientation, thickness and width distributions are described by second-rank tensor internal variables: the structure, thickness and width tensors, whose dynamics are governed by corresponding evolution equations accounting for processes such as new lead generation and rotation as the ice cover deforms. These evolution equations contain contractions of higher-order tensor expressions that require closures. We develop a sea-ice stress constitutive law that relates sea-ice stress to the structure tensor, thickness tensor and strain rate. For the special case of empty leads (containing no ice), linear closures are adopted and we present calculations for simple shear, convergence and divergence.

Analytical solutions of a minimal model of species migration in a bounded domain

A minimal model of species migration is presented which takes the form of a parabolic equation with boundary conditions and initial data. Solutions to the differential problem are obtained that can be used to describe the small- and large-time evolution of a species distribution within a bounded domain. These expressions are compared with the results of numerical simulations and are found to be satisfactory within appropriate temporal regimes. The solutions presented can be used to describe existing observations of nematode distributions, can be used as the basis for further work on nematode migration, and may also be interpreted more generally.

Travelling waves in a model of species migration

A model of species migration is presented which takes the form of a reaction-diffusion system. We consider special limits of this model in which we demonstrate the existence of travelling wave solutions. These solutions can be used to describe the migration of cells, bacteria, and some organisms. © 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multiple error-correction model of housing supply

This paper considers supply dynamics in the context of the Irish residential market. The analysis, in a multiple error-correction framework, reveals that although developers did respond to disequilibrium in supply, the rate of adjustment was relatively slow. In contrast, however, disequilibrium in demand did not impact upon supply, suggesting that inelastic supply conditions could explain the prolonged nature of the boom in the Irish market. Increased elasticity in the later stages of the boom may have been a contributory factor in the extent of the house price falls observed in recent years.

Experimentally driven atomistic model of 1,2 Polybutadiene

We present an efficient method of combining wide angle neutron scattering data with detailed atomistic models, allowing us to perform a quantitative and qualitative mapping of the organisation of the chain conformation in both glass and liquid phases. The structural refinement method presented in this work is based on the exploitation of the intrachain features of the diffraction pattern and its intimate linkage with atomistic models by the use of internal coordinates for bond lengths, valence angles and torsion rotations. Atomic connectivity is defined through these coordinates that are in turn assigned by pre-defined probability distributions, thus allowing for the models in question to be built stochastically. Incremental variation of these coordinates allows for the construction of models that minimise the differences between the observed and calculated structure factors. We present a series of neutron scattering data of 1,2 polybutadiene at the region 120-400K. Analysis of the experimental data yield bond lengths for C-C and C=C of 1.54Å and 1.35Å respectively. Valence angles of the backbone were found to be at 112° and the torsion distributions are characterised by five rotational states, a three-fold trans-skew± for the backbone and gauche± for the vinyl group. Rotational states of the vinyl group were found to be equally populated, indicating a largely atactic chan. The two backbone torsion angles exhibit different behaviour with respect to temperature of their trans population, with one of them adopting an almost all trans sequence. Consequently the resulting configuration leads to a rather persistent chain, something indicated by the value of the characteristic ratio extrapolated from the model. We compare our results with theoretical predictions, computer simulations, RIS models and previously reported experimental results.