Spatial-temporal aspects of cost-benefit analysis for park management: an example from Khao Yai National Park, Thailand

Using a model calibrated to Khao Yai National Park in Thailand, this paper highlights the importance of generating explicitly spatial and temporal data for developing management plans for tropical protected forests. Spatial and temporal cost-benefit analysis should account for the interactions between different land uses – such as the benefits of contiguous areas of preserved land and edge effects – and the realities of villagers living near forests who rely on extracted resources. By taking a temporal perspective, this paper provides a rare empirical assessment of the importance of quasi-option values when determining optimal management plans.

Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

An historical perspective on the development of the thermodynamic equation of seawater - 2010

Oceanography is concerned with understanding the mechanisms controlling the movement of seawater and its contents. A fundamental tool in this process is the characterization of the thermophysical properties of seawater as functions of measured temperature and electrical conductivity, the latter used as a proxy for the concentration of dissolved matter in seawater. For many years a collection of algorithms denoted the Equation of State 1980 (EOS-80) has been the internationally accepted standard for calculating such properties. However, modern measurement technology now allows routine observations of temperature and electrical conductivity to be made to at least one order of magnitude more accurately than the uncertainty in this standard. Recently, a new standard has been developed, the Thermodynamical Equation of Seawater 2010 (TEOS-10). This new standard is thermodynamically consistent, valid over a wider range of temperature and salinity, and includes a mechanism to account for composition variations in seawater. Here we review the scientific development of this standard, and describe the literature involved in its development, which includes many of the articles in this special issue.

Game-theoretic aspects of international mergers: Theory and case studies

This paper studies the exclusion of potential competition as a motivating factor for international mergers. We propose a simple game-theoretic framework in order to discuss the conditions under which mergers that prevent reciprocal domestic competition will occur. Our analysis highlights the shortcomings of antitrust policies based on pre-merger/post-merger concentration comparisons. A review of several recent European cases suggests that actual merger policy often fails to consider potential competition.

Cross-cultural generality and specificity in self-regulation: avoidance personal goals and multiple aspects of well-being in the United States and Japan

The authors examined avoidance personal goals as concurrent (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) predictors of multiple aspects of well-being in the United States and Japan. In both studies, participants adopted more avoidance personal goals in Japan relative to the United States. Both studies also demonstrated that avoidance personal goals were significant negative predictors of the most relevant aspects of well-being in each culture. Specifically, avoidance personal goals were negative predictors of intrapersonal and eudaimonic well-being in the United States and were negative predictors of interpersonal and eudaimonic well-being in Japan. The findings clarify and extend puzzling findings from prior empirical work in this area, and raise provocative possibilities about the nature of avoidance goal pursuit.

Aspects of in vitro and in vivo research approaches directed towards identifying probiotics and prebiotics for human use

The microbiota of the human gastrointestinal tract plays a key role in nutrition and health. Through the process of fermentation, gut bacteria metabolize various substrates (principally dietary components) to end products such as short-chain fatty acids and gases. This anaerobic metabolism is thought to contribute positively toward host daily energy requirements. However, under certain circumstances, the fermentative process may produce undesirable metabolites. This may cause the onset of gut disorders that can be manifest through both acute and chronic conditions. Moreover, the gut flora may become contaminated by transient pathogens that serve further to upset the normal community structure. There has been a recent increase in the use of dietary components that help to maintain, or even improve, the gut microflora "balance." Probiotics are live microbial feed supplements added to appropriate food vehicles (usually fermented milks), whereas prebiotics are dietary carbohydrates that have a selective metabolism in the colon and serve to increase numbers of bacteria seen as desirable. Because of their purported health-promoting properties, lactic acid-producing bacteria, including bifidobacteria, are the usual target organisms. The market value and biological potential of both approaches are enormous. This article will summarize how efficacious types can be identified.

Success and failure of grassroots innovations for addressing climate change: the case of the Transition Movement

Grassroots innovations emerge as networks generating innovative solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, it is unclear if grassroots innovations can be successful in responding to climate change. Little evidence exists on replication, international comparisons are rare, and research tends to overlook discontinued responses in favour of successful ones. We take the Transition Movement as a case study of a rapidly spreading transnational grassroots network, and include both active and non-active local transition initiatives. We investigate the replication of grassroots innovations in different contexts with the aim to uncover general patterns of success and failure, and identify questions for future research. An online survey was carried out in 23 countries (N=276). The data analysis entailed testing the effect of internal and contextual factors of success as drawn from the existing literature, and the identification of clusters of transition initiatives with similar internal and contextual factor configurations. Most transition initiatives consider themselves successful. Success is defined along the lines of social connectivity and empowerment, and external environmental impact. We find that less successful transition initiatives might underestimate the importance of contextual factors and material resources in influencing success. We also find that their diffusion is linked to the combination of local-global learning processes, and that there is an incubation period during which a transition initiative is consolidated. Transition initiatives seem capable of generalising organisational principles derived from unique local experiences that seem to be effective in other local contexts. However, the geographical locations matter with regard to where transition initiatives take root and the extent of their success, and ‘place attachment’ may have a role in the diffusion of successful initatives. We suggest that longitudinal comparative studies can advance our understanding in this regard, as well as inform the changing nature of the definition of success at different stages of grassroots innovation development, and the dynamic nature of local and global linkages.

The effect of phase-correlated returns and spatial smoothing on the accuracy of radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals have the potential to accurately capture near-surface humidity fields from the phase change of ground clutter returns. In practice, phase changes are very noisy and the required smoothing will diminish large radial phase change gradients, leading to severe underestimates of large refractivity changes (ΔN). To mitigate this, the mean refractivity change over the field (ΔNfield) must be subtracted prior to smoothing. However, both observations and simulations indicate that highly correlated returns (e.g., when single targets straddle neighboring gates) result in underestimates of ΔNfield when pulse-pair processing is used. This may contribute to reported differences of up to 30 N units between surface observations and retrievals. This effect can be avoided if ΔNfield is estimated using a linear least squares fit to azimuthally averaged phase changes. Nevertheless, subsequent smoothing of the phase changes will still tend to diminish the all-important spatial perturbations in retrieved refractivity relative to ΔNfield; an iterative estimation approach may be required. The uncertainty in the target location within the range gate leads to additional phase noise proportional to ΔN, pulse length, and radar frequency. The use of short pulse lengths is recommended, not only to reduce this noise but to increase both the maximum detectable refractivity change and the number of suitable targets. Retrievals of refractivity fields must allow for large ΔN relative to an earlier reference field. This should be achievable for short pulses at S band, but phase noise due to target motion may prevent this at C band, while at X band even the retrieval of ΔN over shorter periods may at times be impossible.

Autobiographical memory distributions for negative self-images: memories are organised around negative as well as positive aspects of identity

The relationship between developmental experiences, and an individual’s emerging beliefs about themselves and the world, is central to many forms of psychotherapy. People suffering from a variety of mental health problems have been shown to use negative memories when defining the self, however little is known about how these negative memories might be organised and relate to negative self-images. In two online studies with middle-aged (N = 18; Study 1) and young (N = 56; Study 2) adults, we found that participants’ negative self-images (e.g., I am a failure) were associated with sets of autobiographical memories that formed clustered distributions around times of self-formation, in much the same pattern as for positive self-images (e.g., I am talented). This novel result shows that highly organised sets of salient memories may be responsible for perpetuating negative beliefs about the self. Implications for therapy are discussed.