EEC energy policy and the UK:the Birmingham energy model

This paper examines the implications of the EEC common energy policy for the UK energy sector as represented by a long-term programming model. The model suggests that the UK will be a substantial net exporter of energy in 1985 and will therefore make an important contribution towards the EEC's efforts to meet its import dependency target of 50% or less of gross inland consumption. Furthermore, the UK energy sector could operate within the 1985 EEC energy policy constraints with relatively low extra cost up to the year 2020 (the end of the period covered by the model). The main effect of the constraints would be to bring forward the production of synthetic gas and oil from coal.

Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Seminar 1 impurity in the tomonaga-luttinger model:a functional integral approach

This chapter explains a functional integral approach about impurity in the Tomonaga–Luttinger model. The Tomonaga–Luttinger model of one-dimensional (1D) strongly correlates electrons gives a striking example of non-Fermi-liquid behavior. For simplicity, the chapter considers only a single-mode Tomonaga–Luttinger model, with one species of right- and left-moving electrons, thus, omitting spin indices and considering eventually the simplest linearized model of a single-valley parabolic electron band. The standard operator bosonization is one of the most elegant methods developed in theoretical physics. The main advantage of the bosonization, either in standard or functional form, is that including the quadric electron–electron interaction does not substantially change the free action. The chapter demonstrates the way to develop the formalism of bosonization based on the functional integral representation of observable quantities within the Keldysh formalism.

Classical and technological convergence:beyond the Solow-Swann model

Recent investigations into cross-country convergence follow Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) in using a log-linear approximation to the Swan-Solow growth model to specify regressions. These studies tend to assume a common and exogenous technology. In contrast, the technology catch-up literature endogenises the growth of technology. The use of capital stock data renders the approximations and over-identification of the Mankiw model unnecessary and enables us, using dynamic panel estimation, to estimate the separate contributions of diminishing returns and technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence. We find that both effects are important.

Data Flow Analysis and the Linear Programming Model

* The research is supported partly by INTAS: 04-77-7173 project, http://www.intas.be

The Notion of Model in Software Engineering

Милослав A. Средков - Понятията модел и моделиране се използват толкова интензивно в много дисциплини, че е трудно да им се придаде конретно значение. Дори в Софтуерните технологии, разбирането на тези понятия силно зависи от контекста. Ние смятаме, че това допринася за неконсистентността между подходите за моделиране там. В тази статия посочваме някои от произтичащите проблеми, както и важността да има подходяща дефиниция, съчетана с подходящи инструменти. Преглеждаме по-общите дефиниции на модел отвъд границите на Софтуерните технологии. Минаваме през моделирането на различни вторични продукти на процесите от Софтуерните технологии. Накрая представяме нашата визия относно използването на такава обща основа за наша полза.

A Note on Bayesian Estimation for the Negative-Binomial Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F15.

Bayesian and Frequentist Two-Sample Predictions of the Inverse Weibull Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16,62F15, 62H12, 62M20.

Formative variables and unreal variables:why the formative MIMIC model is invalid

In this rejoinder, we provide a response to the three commentaries written by Diamantopoulos, Howell, and Rigdon (all this issue) on our paper The MIMIC Model and Formative Variables: Problems and Solutions (also this issue). We contrast the approach taken in the latter paper (where we focus on clarifying the assumptions required to reject the formative MIMIC model) by spending time discussing what assumptions would be necessary to accept the use of the formative MIMIC model as a viable approach. Importantly, we clarify the implications of entity realism and show how it is entirely logical that some theoretical constructs can be considered to have real existence independent of their indicators, and some cannot. We show how the formative model only logically holds when considering these ‘unreal’ entities. In doing so, we provide important counter-arguments for much of the criticisms made in Diamantopoulos’ commentary, and the distinction also helps clarify a number of issues in the commentaries of Howell and Rigdon (both of which in general agree with our original paper). We draw together these various threads to provide a set of conceptual tools researchers can use when thinking about the entities in their theoretical models.

The uncertainty enabled model web (UncertWeb)

UncertWeb is a European research project running from 2010-2013 that will realize the uncertainty enabled model web. The assumption is that data services, in order to be useful, need to provide information about the accuracy or uncertainty of the data in a machine-readable form. Models taking these data as imput should understand this and propagate errors through model computations, and quantify and communicate errors or uncertainties generated by the model approximations. The project will develop technology to realize this and provide demonstration case studies.

Langevin dynamics, large deviations and instantons for the quasi-geostrophic model and two-dimensional Euler equations

We investigate a class of simple models for Langevin dynamics of turbulent flows, including the one-layer quasi-geostrophic equation and the two-dimensional Euler equations. Starting from a path integral representation of the transition probability, we compute the most probable fluctuation paths from one attractor to any state within its basin of attraction. We prove that such fluctuation paths are the time reversed trajectories of the relaxation paths for a corresponding dual dynamics, which are also within the framework of quasi-geostrophic Langevin dynamics. Cases with or without detailed balance are studied. We discuss a specific example for which the stationary measure displays either a second order (continuous) or a first order (discontinuous) phase transition and a tricritical point. In situations where a first order phase transition is observed, the dynamics are bistable. Then, the transition paths between two coexisting attractors are instantons (fluctuation paths from an attractor to a saddle), which are related to the relaxation paths of the corresponding dual dynamics. For this example, we show how one can analytically determine the instantons and compute the transition probabilities for rare transitions between two attractors.

Kelvin-wave cascade in the vortex filament model

The small-scale energy-transfer mechanism in zero-temperature superfluid turbulence of helium-4 is still a widely debated topic. Currently, the main hypothesis is that weakly nonlinear interacting Kelvin waves (KWs) transfer energy to sufficiently small scales such that energy is dissipated as heat via phonon excitations. Theoretically, there are at least two proposed theories for Kelvin-wave interactions. We perform the most comprehensive numerical simulation of weakly nonlinear interacting KWs to date and show, using a specially designed numerical algorithm incorporating the full Biot-Savart equation, that our results are consistent with the nonlocal six-wave KW interactions as proposed by L'vov and Nazarenko.

The MG Rover closure and policy response: an evaluation of the Task Force model in the UK

In recent years there have been a number of high-profile plant closures in the UK. In several cases, the policy response has included setting up a task force to deal with the impacts of the closure. It can be hypothesised that task force involving multi-level working across territorial boundaries and tiers of government is crucial to devising a policy response tailored to people's needs and to ensuring success in dealing with the immediate impacts of a closure. This suggests that leadership, and vision, partnership working and community engagement, and delivery of high quality services are important. This paper looks at the case of the MG Rover closure in 2005, to examine the extent to which the policy response to the closure at the national, regional and local levels dealt effectively with the immediate impacts of the closure, and the lessons that can be learned from the experience. Such lessons are of particular relevance given the closure of the LDV van plant in Birmingham in 2009 and more broadly – such as in the case of the downsizing of the Opel operation in Europe following its takeover by Magna.