Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Estudo comparativo de dois tipos de cultivo: monocultivo (camarões) versus cultivo integrado (algas/camarões)

The integrated culture of seaweed and aquatic animals is an ancient practice in Asian countries. The expansion of this practice to western countries is consequence of the recognition of this system as a sustainable alternative that allows economical diversification and mitigation of environmental impacts generated by effluents of aquaculture. This study evaluated the growth of the seaweed Gracilaria caudata and of the shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei in monoculture (shrimps) and integrated culture (shrimps and algae) systems, and accessed the effect of the seaweed in the water quality. There were two treatments in the experiment: monoculture (shrimps) and integrated culture (shrimps/ algae). The organisms were cultured in 6 aquaria (10L) filled with seawater (35.0±0.0 PSU and 28.1±0.4°C) for 28 days. The nutrients of water (PO43-, NH4+, NO2-, NO3- and DIN), the biomass and the relative growth rate (RGR, % day-1) of seaweed and shrimps were measured weekly. The parameters pH, temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen were measured daily. The concentration of NH4+ in integrated culture (62.8±25.2µM) was lower (Mann-Whitney p<0.001) than in monoculture (85.6±24.3µM). The mean of PO4- in monoculture (10.4±4.6µM) was markedly higher (Mann-Whitney; p=0.024) than that in integrated culture (8.7±4.1µM). The level of dissolved oxygen in integrated culture (6.0±0.6mg/L) was higher (t-Student; P=0.014) than that in shrimp monoculture (5.8±0.6mg/L). The mean values of the parameters pH, NO2-, NO3- and DIN were 7.5±0.2, 10.1±12.2µM, 24.5±3.2µM and 120.17±30.76µM in monoculture, and 7.5±0.2, 10.5±13.2µM, 27.4±3.5µM and 100.76±49.59µM in integrated culture. There were not differences in these parameters between treatments. The biomass and RGR of seaweed reached 15.0±1.9g and 7.4±2.8% day-1 at the end of the experiment. The performance of shrimp was favorable in monoculture (1.5±0.8g; 5.7±1.6% dia-1) and in integrated culture (1.5±0.7g; 5.2±1.2% dia-1), and the rate of survival was 100% in both treatments. The tolerance and favorable performance of Gracilaria caudata suggest that this seaweed might be integrated into shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) culture systems

Saúde bucal de idosos institucionalizados no Brasil

O propósito dessa investigação foi o de estudar as situações objetivas e de auto-percepção em saúde bucal de idosos residentes em Instituições de Longa Permanência de Idosos (ILPIS) distribuídos em 11 municípios pertencentes as 5 regiões geográficas do Brasil. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo seccional através de um censo com idosos institucionalizados no Brasil. Foram avaliados 1192 indivíduos, residentes em 36 Instituições de Longa Permanência de Idosos (ILPIS), distribuídas em 11 municípios. Deste universo, 587 (49,2%) responderam ao GOHAI. Foi aplicado questionário com questões subjetivas e sobre o comportamento em saúde bucal, além de levantamento epidemiológico seguindo critérios da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Foram realizados os testes de Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, Exato de Fisher, Qui-quadrado e Regressão logística múltipla. Resultados: A idade média foi de 74,98 (+ 9,5). Destes, 51,4% (302) eram do sexo masculino e 152 (25,9) apresentavam alguma dependência. A média do CPOD foi de 28,8 (+ 5,5) e 54,5% (320) dos idosos eram edêntulos. Constatouse que 54,2% (318) e 74,1% (435) não usam nenhum tipo de prótese superior e inferior, respectivamente. O CPI e PIP mostraram que 64,4% (378) apresentaram todos os sextantes excluídos. O GOHAI mostrou que 75% (440) dos indivíduos apresentava auto-percepção positiva em saúde bucal. As variáveis última visita ao dentista (RP ajust=4,058; IC=1,526-10,789), presença de problemas gengivais (RP ajust=5,703; IC=1,754-18,544) e opinião sobre os dentes, as gengivas ou prótese (RP ajust=19,514; IC=5,075-75,041) permaneceram significativas no modelo após regressão logística múltipla. Conclusões: Observou-se predomínio da auto-percepção positiva em saúde bucal em detrimento das precárias condições bucais. Assim, para a população institucionalizada, o presente estudo recomenda a aplicação de levantamentos epidemiológicos e de auto-percepção para assegurar adequado planejamento nas ações de saúde bucal

Efetividade da terapia fisica descongestiva na cicatrização de úlceras venosas

A venous ulcer is the most serious clinical manifestation of chronic venous failure, and the most frequent in lower limbs, accounting for 70% of all ulcers. Patients may suffer from this infirmity for several years without healing of the lesion if treatment is inadequate. The aim of this investigation was to verify the effectiveness of decongestive physical therapy in the healing of venous ulcers. This is a quasi-experimental, interventionist study, with paired, non-probabilistic sampling, composed of 50 patients divided into two groups: control and intervention, each composed of 25 patients. Both groups were identically treated for six months with daily dressings and the latter also underwent complex physical therapy consisting of a combination of the following techniques: manual lymphatic drainage, compression bandaging, lower limb elevation, myolymphokinetic exercises and skin care. The study was approved (Protocol no. 59/2007) by the Ethics Committee of the State University of Southeast Bahia. The Mann-Whitney and Chi-square tests were applied for data analysis. After statistical analysis the patients who underwent therapy showed a statistically significant difference with respect to wound contraction starting in the second month of treatment. Compared to the control, the intervention group showed a greater reduction in both pain and edema starting in the third and fourth month of therapy, respectively. To reinforce these findings, the mean percentage of tissue present at the base of the ulcer (granulation/fibrin ratio) was calculated. The intervention group showed greater granulation at the base of the ulcer compared to the control, significant from the second month of treatment on. It was observed in this study that lymphotherapy, when compared between the intervention and control groups, accelerated the healing process, and reduced pain and edema in the affected limbs. It is expected, therefore, that these results widen scientific knowledge and we suggest that this therapy be used 78 not only to reduce lymphedema, but also as a treatment option for venous ulcers, given its easy application and low cost. The data, therefore, demonstrated the importance of basic care on the part of a multiprofessional and transdisciplinary health team involved in the healing process of these infirmities, thereby contributing to better quality of life in these individuals

Síndrome metabólica e fatores associados: estudo comparativo com mulheres que apresentaram pré-eclâmpsia e gravidez normal, acompanhadas cinco anos após o parto

Preeclampsia is defined as an extremely serious complication of the pregnancy-puerperium cycle with delayed emergence of cardiovascular risk factors, including metabolic syndrome. The research aimed estimate the prevalences of metabolic syndrome and associated factors in women with preeclampsia and normal pregnancy followed five years after childbirth. This is a cross-sectional observational study using a quantitative approach, conducted at a maternity school in the city of Natal in Rio Grande do Norte state. The sample was composed of 70 women with previous preeclampsia and 75 normal selected by simple random probability sampling. Subjects were analyzed for sociodemographic, obstetric, clinical, anthropometric and biochemical parameters. International Diabetes Federation criteria were adopted to diagnose metabol ic syndrome. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Mann-Whitney, Student s t, Pearson s chi-squared, and Fisher s exact tests, in addition to simple logistic regression, were used for data analysis, at a 5% significance level (p ≤ 0.05). Statistical tests demonstrated elevated body mass index (p = 0.001), predominance of family history of diabetes mellitus (p = 0.022) and significantly higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the preeclampsia group (37.1%) when compared to normal (22.7%) (p = 0.042). Intergroup comparison showed a high number of metabolic syndrome components in women with previous preeclampsia. Altered systolic and diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.001) was the most prevalent, followed by low concentrations of high-density lipoproteins (p = 0.049), and hyperglycemia (p=0.030). There was a predominance of the metabolic syndrome in women with schooling 0-9 years (42.4%) (p = 0.005), body mass index above 30Kg.m 2 (52.3%) (p < 0.001), uric acid high (62.5%) (p = 0.050 and family history of hypertension (38.5%) (p< 0.001). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that the body mass index above 30 kg.m2, education level less than 10 years of study (p < 0.001) and family history of hypertension (p = 0.002) remained associated with the metabolic syndrome after multivariate analysis of the data. It is considered Women with previous preeclampsia exhibited high prevalence of metabolic syndrome and their individual components in relation to normal, especially, altered systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low concentrations of high-density lipoproteins and hyperglycemia. The factors associated to this ou tcome were obesity, less than 10 years of schooling, and family history of hypertension. Overall, this study identified young women with a history of PE exposed to a higher cardiovascular risk than normal

Efetividade da terapia física descongestiva na cicatrização de úlceras venosas

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Avaliação de concentrações do C-Telopeptideo de Colágeno (CTX) em mulheres no climatério

Fundação de Apoio à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Abordagem dos aspectos psicológicos da mulher infértil :um estudo quali-quantitativo

Purpose: assess the frequency of stress and anxiety levels in infertile women, correlate these aspects with risk factors and qualitatively analyze feelings resultant from the inability to conceive, in order to obtain data for specific psychological guidance. Methods: the case-control study included a total of 302 women, 152 being infertile (case group: 30.3 ± 5.4 years), and 150 non-fertile (control group: 25.7 ± 7.9 years). The quantitative approach involved the application of Lipp s Stress Symptoms Inventory (LSSI) and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), whereas the qualitative approach consisted of a semi-structured interview. Response variables considered were: stress frequency and anxiety scores (State and Trait). Statistical analysis compared frequencies and medians between groups, by means of qui-squared and Mann-Whitney tests, respectively, and constructed logistical regression models to test associations between response variables and risk factors considered. Qualitative data were analyzed descriptively and categorized in order to perform correspondence analysis. The level of significance was 5%. Results: in the study sample, stress frequency was higher in the case group than in the control(61.8 and 36.0%, respectively), however, significant differences were not observed between groups in relation to stress phases and predominant symptomology type. With respect to anxiety, there were no significant differences between case and control groups as to median state scores [39.5 (35.0 46.0) and 41.0 (35.7 47.0 ); respectively) and anxiety trait scores [44.0 (34.0 51.0) and 42.0 (36.0 49.2); respectively). Risk factors significantly associated with greater risk for high anxiety scores in the case group were: primary infertility, unawareness of the causal factor, diagnostic phase investigation, religion, lack of children from other marriages and the fact that the woman was previously married. The qualitative approach demonstrated that infertility provokes emotional responses, such as sadness, anxiety, anger, fear and guilt. Conclusions: it can be concluded that infertile women are more vulnerable to stress; however, they are capable of adapting to stressful events without serious physical or psychological compromising

Fractal correlation of heart rate variability in obese children

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

O índice BODE reflete o nível de atividade física na vida diária de pacientes com DPOC?

Objectives: To study the relationship between the level of physical activity in daily life and disease severity assessed by the BODE index in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: Sixty-seven patients with COPD (36 men) with forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV(1)) of 39 (27-47)% predicted and age of 66 (61-72) years old were evaluated by spirometry, dyspnea levels (measured by the Medical Research Council scale, MRC) and by the 6-minute walking test (6MWT). The BODE index was calculated based on the body mass index (weight/height(2)), FEV(1), MRC and 6MWT, and then the patients were divided in four quartiles according to their scores (Quartile I: 0 to 2 points, n=15; Quartile II: 3 to 4 points, n=20; Quartile III: 5 to 6 points, n=23; Quartile IV: 7 to 10 points, n=9). Two activity monitors (DynaPort (R) and SenseWear (R)) were used to evaluate the level of physical activity in daily life. The Kruskal-Wallis test (Dunns's post-hoc test), the Mann-Whitney test and the Spearman Correlation Coefficient were used for statistical analysis. Results: There were modest correlation between the BODE index and the time spent walking per day, the total daily energy expenditure and the time spent in moderate and vigorous activities per day (-0.32 <= r <=- 0.47; p <= 0.01 for all variables). When comparing the pooled quartiles I+II with III+IV, there were significant difference between the time spent walking per day, the total daily energy expenditure and the time spent in moderate activities per day (p <= 0.05). Conclusion: The level of physical activity in daily life has a modest correlation with the classification of COPD severity assessed by the BODE index, reflecting only differences between patients with classified as mild-moderate and severe-very severe COPD.

Índices geométricos de variabilidade da frequência cardíaca na doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica

Background: It was already evidenced decreased heart rate variability (HRV) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients at rest.Objective: In order to insert new elements in the literature regarding this issue, we evaluated geometric index of HRV in COPD subjects.Method: We analyzed data from 34 volunteers, divided into two groups according to spirometric values: COPD (17 volunteers, FEV1/FVC = 47.3 +/- 10.2; FEV1 = 50.8 +/- 15.7) and control (17 volunteers, FEV1/FVC = 78.8 +/- 10.8; FEV1 = 100.1 +/- 14.7). For analysis of HRV indexes the volunteers remained in the supine position for 30 minutes. We analyzed the following indexes: triangular index (RRtri), triangular interpolation of RR intervals (TINN) and Poincare plot (SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2). Student t test for unpaired samples and Mann-Whitney test were used for data analysis.Results: We observed statistically significant reductions in geometric indexes in the COPD group: RRtri (0.043 +/- 0.01 vs. 0.059 +/- 0.02; p = 0.018), TINN (105.88 +/- 51.82 vs. 151.47 +/- 49.9; p=0.014), SD1 (9.76 +/- 4.66 vs. 14.55 +/- 6.04; p = 0.014) and SD2 (34.86 +/- 17.02 vs. 51.51 +/- 18.38; p = 0.010). SD1/5D2 (0.30 +/- 0.11 vs. 0.28 +/- 0.07; p = 0.605) were not significantly different between groups. Patients with COPD presented a visual analysis of Poincare plot of lower dispersion of RR intervals both beat to beat and the long term.Conclusion: Subjects with COPD present reduction of geometric indexes of HRV, indicating reduced heart rate variability. (C) 2010 Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

In vivo CYP2E1 phenotyping as a new potential biomarker of occupational and experimental exposure to benzene

Assessing CYP2E1 phenotype in vivo may be important to predict individual susceptibility to those chemicals, including benzene, which are metabolically activated by this isoenzyme. Chlorzoxazone (CHZ), a specific CYP2E1 substrate, is readily hydroxylated to 6-OH-chlorzoxazone (6-OH-CHZ) by liver CYP2E1 and the metabolic ratio 6-OH-CHZ/CHZ in serum (MR) is a specific and sensitive biomarker of CYP2E1 activity in vivo in humans. We used this MR as a potential biomarker of effect in benzene-treated rats and, also, in humans occupationally exposed to low levels of benzene. Male Sprague-Dawley rats (375-400 g b.w.) were treated i.p. for 3 days with either a 0.5 ml solution of benzene (5 mmol/kg b.w.) in corn oil, or 0.5 ml corn oil alone. Twenty-four hours after the last injection, a polyethylene glycol (PEG) solution of CHZ (20 mg/kg b.w.) was injected i.p. in both treated and control animals. After 2, 5.10,15, 20,30,45, 60, 90, 120, 180, and 240 min from injection, 0.2 ml blood was taken from the tip tail and stored at -20 degrees C until analysis. A modified reverse phase HPLC method using a 5 mu m Ultrasphere C18 column equipped with a direct-connection ODS guard column, was used to measure CHZ and its metabolite 6-OH-CHZ in serum. No statistically significant difference in the MR was observed, at any sampling time, between benzene-treated and control rats. The concentration-versus-time area under the curve (AUC), however, was lower (p < 0.05, Mann-Whitney test), whereas the systemic clearance was higher (p < 0.05) in treated than in control rats. Eleven petrochemical workers occupationally exposed to low levels of airborne benzene (mean +/- SD, 25.0 +/- 24.4 mu g/m(3)) and 13 non-exposed controls from the same factory (mean +/- SD, 6.7 +/- 4.0 mu g/m(3)) signed an informed consent form and were administered 500 mg CHZ p.o. Two hours later a venous blood sample was taken for CHZ and 6-OH-CHZ measurements. Despite exposed subjects showed significantly higher levels of t,t-MA and S-PMA, two biomarkers of exposure to benzene, than non-exposed workers, no difference in the MR mean values +/- SD was found between exposed (0.59 +/- 0.29) and non-exposed (0.57 +/- 0.23) subjects. So, benzene was found to modify CHZ disposition, but not CYP2E1 phenotype in benzene-treated rats, nor in workers exposed to benzene, probably due to the levels of exposure being too low. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Avaliação da cinemática do complexo tóracoabdominal durante repouso e endurance muscular respiratória em obesos

Background: Obesity may affect the respiratory system, causing changes in respiratory function and in the pulmonary volumes and flows. Objectives: To evaluate the influence of obesity in the movement of thoracoabdominal complex at rest and during maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV), and the contribution between the different compartments of this complex and the volume changes of chest wall between obese and non-obese patients. Materials and Methods: We studied 16 patients divided into two groups: the obese group (n = 8) and group non-obese (n = 8). The two groups were homogeneous in terms of spirometric characteristics (FVC mean: 4.97 ± 0.6 L - 92.91 ± 10.17% predicted, and 4.52 ± 0.6 L - 93.59 ± 8.05%), age 25.6 ± 5.0 and 26.8 ± 4.9 years, in non-obese and obese respectively. BMI was 24.93 ± 3.0 and 39.18 ± 4.3 kg/m2 in the groups investigated. All subjects performed breathing calm and slow and maneuver MVV, during registration for optoelectronic plethysmography. Statistical analysis: we used the unpaired t test and Mann-Whitney. Results: Obese individuals had a lower percentage contribution of the rib cage abdominal (RCa) during breathing at rest and VVM. The variation of end expiratory (EELV) and end inspiratory (EILV) lung volumes were lower in obese subjects. It has been found asynchrony and higher distortion between compartments of thoracoabdominal complex in obese subjects when compared to non-obese. Conclusions: Central obesity impairs the ventilation lung, reducing to adaptation efforts and increasing the ventilatory work

Habilidades sociais educativas de mães separadas e sua relação com o comportamento de pré-escolares

Este estudo teve por objetivo: (a) caracterizar uma amostra de mães e filhos, em famílias separadas, quanto às suas habilidades sociais; (b) investigar relações entre as habilidades sociais educativas das mães e o comportamento das crianças; e (c) comparar grupo clínico e não-clínico quanto ao repertório comportamental. Participaram da pesquisa 43 mães de crianças de ambos os sexos, com idade entre quatro e seis anos. As participantes responderam a um Questionário Sociodemográfico, Roteiro de Entrevista de Habilidades Sociais Educativas Parentais, Child Behavior Checklist - CBCL, Questionário de Respostas Socialmente Habilidosas e Escala Infantil A2 de Rutter. Para análise de dados, empregaram-se os testes Spearman e Mann-Whitney. Os resultados mostraram que habilidades sociais educativas das mães estiveram relacionadas a habilidades sociais das crianças, enquanto práticas negativas foram relacionadas a problemas de comportamento. Discutem-se como as habilidades sociais maternas podem influenciar o comportamento dos filhos em famílias separadas.

Percepção dos idosos sobre saúde bucal

The assessment of oral health status in elderly patients is essential for the development of specific health policies. The prevalence of oral diseases is high in this population. The self-perception of oral health conditions influences the demand for oral care and quality of life for seniors. The aim of this study was to assess self-perception of oral health status in 100 elderly of both sexes, aged 60 years or older and functionally independent the Basic Health Unit of Felipe Camarão II, Natal, Brazil. For comparison of self-perception data was collected in Bom Pastor, Natal / RN. In this research data were collected a questionnaire grouped into two parts. The first part with the socio-demographic data, subjective and objective condition of oral health and access to the service, the second part GOHAI Index. This index consists of 12 items that make it possible to obtain information involving aspects of chewing, speech, phonation, and self-assessed oral health. The results were subjected to statistical tests of Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis test (α = 0.05), to identify possible predictors of self-evaluation. As a result, 69% were female, ages ranged from 60 to 86 years, with a median of 65 years. In relation to marital status 48% were married. For the years of study, the sample had an average of 3 years. For the last visit to the dentist, only 27% of seniors had visited the Dentist for less than a year. Regarding the questions about the presence of gingival and dental problems were answered by 46% and 21% respectively. The data on the perception of your teeth and gums, 44%. The index showed GOHAI value for self-perception of 30 points to Felipe Camarão and 28 points for the Bom Pastor, both considered a low perception. We identified predictors of self-rated number of people in the room, participate in any associational activity, there is problems with your teeth and your gums. Concluded a negative self-perception of oral health condition by Gone in both areas, influenced by socioeconomic and cultural issues, although they realize the importance given to oral health, but by the misfortunes of other prominent favored little valuing of oral health