Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Statistical properties of cloud lifecycles in cloud-resolving models

A new technique is described for the analysis of cloud-resolving model simulations, which allows one to investigate the statistics of the lifecycles of cumulus clouds. Clouds are tracked from timestep-to-timestep within the model run. This allows for a very simple method of tracking, but one which is both comprehensive and robust. An approach for handling cloud splits and mergers is described which allows clouds with simple and complicated time histories to be compared within a single framework. This is found to be important for the analysis of an idealized simulation of radiative-convective equilibrium, in which the moist, buoyant, updrafts (i.e., the convective cores) were tracked. Around half of all such cores were subject to splits and mergers during their lifecycles. For cores without any such events, the average lifetime is 30min, but events can lengthen the typical lifetime considerably.

Large-scale context for the UK floods in summer 2007

This paper shows how the rainfall distribution over the UK, in the three major events on 13-15 June, 25 June and 20 July 2007, was related to troughs in the upper-level flow, and investigates the relationship of these features to a persistent large-scale flow pattern which extended around the northern hemisphere and its possible origins. Remote influences can be mediated by the propagation of large-scale atmospheric waves across the northern hemisphere and also by the origins of the air-masses that are wrapped into the developing weather systems delivering the rain to the UK. These dynamical influences are examined using analyses and forecasts produced by a range of atmospheric models.

Large snowfall events in the south-eastern Alps

Insects, weather and climate

Applications of atmospheric science are relevant to a range of themes within science and society; application to entomology was the main focus of this meeting organised by Dr Curtis Wood (University of Reading). This meeting was held jointly with the Royal Entomological Society. The talks were designed to appeal to the broader scientific community by showcasing topics near the join of the two disciplines. The audience heard about exciting topics within weather and climate change, how they are applied to entomological science and how insects can be used to advance atmospheric science. The meeting included the 2009 Margary Lecture given by Prof. Philip Mellor from the Institute for Animal Health (IAH) at Pirbright.

Anthropogenic snowfall events in the UK: examples of urban weather modification?

Snow in the UK is generally associated with synoptic or mesoscale weather systems, thus snowfall during quiescent anticyclonic conditions is surprising and might not even be forecast. Consequently it could present a hazard. Snowfall during anticyclonic freezing fog conditions at Didcot and Hereford in December 2006 is investigated here. These two snowfalls seem to present circumstances in which anthropogenically-produced aerosols could have provided ice nuclei within the freezing fog, and therefore might provide characteristic examples of Anthropogenic Snowfall Events (ASEs).

Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

The performance of a 2D numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with GPS surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. The Simple Finite Volume (SFV) model is used to solve the 2D Saint-Venant equations over an unstructured mesh of 30000 elements representing channel and floodplain, and allowing detailed hydraulics of flow around bridge piers and other influential features to be represented. The SFV model is also used to corroborate flows recorded for the event at two gauging stations. Calibration of Manning's n is performed with a two stage strategy, with channel values determined by calibration of the gauging station models, and floodplain values determined by optimising the fit between model results and observed water levels and flood extent for the 2005 event. RMS error for the calibrated model compared with surveyed water levels is ~±0.4m, the same order of magnitude as the estimated error in the survey data. The study demonstrates the ability of unstructured mesh hydraulic models to represent important hydraulic processes across a range of scales, with potential applications to flood risk management.

A review of the theoretical basis for bulk mass flux convective parameterization

Most parameterizations for precipitating convection in use today are bulk schemes, in which an ensemble of cumulus elements with different properties is modelled as a single, representative entraining-detraining plume. We review the underpinning mathematical model for such parameterizations, in particular by comparing it with spectral models in which elements are not combined into the representative plume. The chief merit of a bulk model is that the representative plume can be described by an equation set with the same structure as that which describes each element in a spectral model. The equivalence relies on an ansatz for detrained condensate introduced by Yanai et al. (1973) and on a simplified microphysics. There are also conceptual differences in the closure of bulk and spectral parameterizations. In particular, we show that the convective quasi-equilibrium closure of Arakawa and Schubert (1974) for spectral parameterizations cannot be carried over to a bulk parameterization in a straightforward way. Quasi-equilibrium of the cloud work function assumes a timescale separation between a slow forcing process and a rapid convective response. But, for the natural bulk analogue to the cloud-work function (the dilute CAPE), the relevant forcing is characterised by a different timescale, and so its quasi-equilibrium entails a different physical constraint. Closures of bulk parameterization that use the non-entraining parcel value of CAPE do not suffer from this timescale issue. However, the Yanai et al. (1973) ansatz must be invoked as a necessary ingredient of those closures.

The variation in transparency of amniotic membrane used in ocular surface regeneration

Background/aims: Scant consideration has been given to the variation in structure of the human amniotic membrane (AM) at source or to the significance such differences might have on its clinical transparency. Therefore, we applied our experience of quantifying corneal transparency to AM. Methods: Following elective caesarean, AM from areas of the fetal sac distal and proximal (ie, adjacent) to the placenta was compared with freeze-dried AM. The transmission of light through the AM samples was quantified spectrophotometrically; also, tissue thickness was measured by light microscopy and refractive index by refractometry. Results: Freeze-dried and freeze-thawed AM samples distal and proximal to the placenta differed significantly in thickness, percentage transmission of visible light and refractive index. The thinnest tissue (freeze-dried AM) had the highest transmission spectra. The thickest tissue (freeze-thawed AM proximal to the placenta) had the highest refractive index. Using the direct summation of fields method to predict transparency from an equivalent thickness of corneal tissue, AM was found to be up to 85% as transparent as human cornea. Conclusion: When preparing AM for ocular surface reconstruction within the visual field, consideration should be given to its original location from within the fetal sac and its method of preservation, as either can influence corneal transparency.

Estimating surface CO2 fluxes from space-borne dry air mole fraction observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter

We have developed an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to estimate 8-day regional surface fluxes of CO2 from space-borne CO2 dry-air mole fraction observations (XCO2) and evaluate the approach using a series of synthetic experiments, in preparation for data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The 32-day duty cycle of OCO alternates every 16 days between nadir and glint measurements of backscattered solar radiation at short-wave infrared wavelengths. The EnKF uses an ensemble of states to represent the error covariances to estimate 8-day CO2 surface fluxes over 144 geographical regions. We use a 12×8-day lag window, recognising that XCO2 measurements include surface flux information from prior time windows. The observation operator that relates surface CO2 fluxes to atmospheric distributions of XCO2 includes: a) the GEOS-Chem transport model that relates surface fluxes to global 3-D distributions of CO2 concentrations, which are sampled at the time and location of OCO measurements that are cloud-free and have aerosol optical depths <0.3; and b) scene-dependent averaging kernels that relate the CO2 profiles to XCO2, accounting for differences between nadir and glint measurements, and the associated scene-dependent observation errors. We show that OCO XCO2 measurements significantly reduce the uncertainties of surface CO2 flux estimates. Glint measurements are generally better at constraining ocean CO2 flux estimates. Nadir XCO2 measurements over the terrestrial tropics are sparse throughout the year because of either clouds or smoke. Glint measurements provide the most effective constraint for estimating tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes by accurately sampling fresh continental outflow over neighbouring oceans. We also present results from sensitivity experiments that investigate how flux estimates change with 1) bias and unbiased errors, 2) alternative duty cycles, 3) measurement density and correlations, 4) the spatial resolution of estimated flux estimates, and 5) reducing the length of the lag window and the size of the ensemble. At the revision stage of this manuscript, the OCO instrument failed to reach its orbit after it was launched on 24 February 2009. The EnKF formulation presented here is also applicable to GOSAT measurements of CO2 and CH4.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.